Would Another Marlins Pitcher Be a Better Trade Candidate than Pablo López?

[TNTwinsFan]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are strictly NOT available, off the table - no discussion. 

Pablo Lopez is a pretty good outcome whenever he pitches, but the Twins need more years of control.

Both of Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo have great upside. The Twins should really look at trying to acquire one of these two pitchers. Each is capable of shutting down any team in baseball as soon as this October.

This. If both Cabrera and Luzardo can be had I'd send Arraez, Kepler, and Grey or Mahle. Give me 4-6 years of control with those young guns and I think the Twins have themselves SOLID rotation for a while. For me Arraez is too one-dimentonal and I think at is at peak trade value now with adequate talent to fill his spot; Sell High Now.

[cballhitball]

The Twins starting pitching rotation is the proverbial "looks good on paper" rotation.  However, if you look deeper one finds Mahle who broke down at the end of '22, Maeda hasn't pitched in a year and had surgery, Gray (who is a stud) but injury prone, Ober who is ok and will give some good innings and of course - Joe Ryan who got injured at the end of '22 but, is on his way as a top 3 in the rotation pitcher.  So what's the point?  The evidence suggests you can never have enough starting pitching.  That said - why not get Trevor Bauer for a song and grab Cabrera.  Jayzuz, Twins would look menacing....

[sweetmusicviola16]

Kepler and Emanuel Rodriguez for Edward Cabrera and Jacob Miller.

[rick kayser]

I am a fan of Arraez and know how valuable his skill set is, a perfect 2nd base profile. As a 1stbaseman that profile is less valuable, as a player with chronic knee concerns, his value takes another reduction, and his base running does not erase his lack of power. The Twins have infield depth and a plethora of left hand hitting outfield potential. They have starter depth, all be it with significant health concerns from 1 through 6, with Ryan as the healthy contrast to the whole. There are options to replace Arraez, using him as a center piece for a major trade with Miami makes sense, with the goal of 2 starters in return. of the 4 starters that Miami has available Lopez would provide the least long term value, but value none the less. Make a effort to use depth to create strength. The fact that we have viable options in trade conversations is a plus.

[Minny505]

Any of the three would be preferable to Lopez.

My choice of those three would be to make a deal for the one that costs the least in trade capital. 

[I wish the twins were good]

6 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I would offer the Marlins the choice of any two out of Kepler, Arraez, and Polanco for Cabrera - as an initial position.  If they ask for more, offer all three.  Still not enough?  Start adding surplus LH OFs until they say yes.  The Twins would have to give up a lot but they also would not be depleting the farm system.

I think they need to keep Polanco for now. I'm having some trouble seeing how they make this lineup work without him until they see what, if anything, they are going to get out of the younger guys that could potentially end up at 2b (Lee, Lewis, Martin?). I don't want to see them playing Arraez there. They got roughly two WAR out of him last year and he's only going to make 7.5MM. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Kepler and Emanuel Rodriguez for Edward Cabrera and Jacob Miller.

The Twins would be foolish to even consider trading Emmanuel Rodriguez. He is likely carrying as much or more value than Brooks Lee. Edward Cabrera is the guy to get though and the Marlins are listening. Arraez, Larnach, Ober, and Kepler for Cabrera and Luzardo is the gamble to take.

[I wish the twins were good]

1 hour ago, cballhitball said:

That said - why not get Trevor Bauer for a song

[TyCobb367]

7 hours ago, BsuNemo said:

If it's not Alcantara the twins don't need "him" whoever him is. We don't need anything other than a true #1. We've got a solid group of 2s and 3s and some intrigue in the pipeline. What puts us over the edge is an ace. Give up Larnach, Martin, Kep and Polo for him. A trade for anything less than an ace doesn't do it for me. 

Getting a #1 starter once they have reached that status is almost impossible unless they reach free agency and you want to pay 30+ million per year. Luzardo and Cabrera both have ace potential and are on the block. Them reaching that potential is not guaranteed, but as a small market club, these are the type of trades the Twins need to make! 

[Heiny]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thank you!  Have a great weekend!

Sorry,  I didn't mean Kepler,  I meant to put Kirriloff in there.

 

[Omgbenji]

22 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I would offer the Marlins the choice of any two out of Kepler, Arraez, and Polanco for Cabrera - as an initial position.  If they ask for more, offer all three.  Still not enough?  Start adding surplus LH OFs until they say yes.  The Twins would have to give up a lot but they also would not be depleting the farm system.

Commenters on here so frequently believe that volume trumps quality. Why would they give up a quality arm for a bunch of aging players we don’t want?

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Omgbenji said:

Commenters on here so frequently believe that volume trumps quality. Why would they give up a quality arm for a bunch of aging players we don’t want?

Arraez is the reigning AL batting champion, in 2022, Kepler out performed all Marlins' outfielders except one, and Polanco is better than any Marlins' current 2B.  All three are starters for the Twins.   Not exactly a bunch of "aging players we don't want".  Regardless, as I said in my comment, I would make this the initial offer.  You have to start someplace.

[Finlander]

Marlins have stated they are looking for ready or near-ready bats. You can be sure they aren't considering MN as their only trading partner. They've got pitching to deal, and they're open for business. We'd have to prepare to lose some talent to beat offers from other teams (i.e., candidates like Santander, Hays, Mullins from Baltimore), or we'd have to get creative, like taking on the Jorge Soler contract to reduce the amount of player value we'd need to send to Florida. 

I wonder what they'd need to include Meyer (coming off surgery) in a deal with another pitcher like Cabrera. Would be nice to bring Meyer back home. If he's healthy he's nasty.

I'd probably be okay with an offer based around Lewis, Kepler and Arraez for Cabrera, Meyer, Soler. But I wouldn't mind checking first to see what it might take to get Glasnow from Tampa Bay or Sale out of Boston if he's willing to head here.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/13/2023 at 10:48 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Let’s try to break this down a bit.  The goal for the Twins this year should be to win the Central (and see where things go from there) while building/not screwing up the roster for a longer and more open window in ‘24-‘26.

1. If healthy, our starting staff is solid - in reality, how much more value would be created by replacing Ober with one of these Marlins. Some for sure, but at what cost to ‘24-‘26? 

2. With an injury or two, we still have SWR, Varland and Winder for depth. Could one, or even a mix of all three, do nearly as well as one of the Marlins? Possibly. But we should expect injuries to our current starters and having another fairly certain 100+ IP SP arm would be a super hedge.

3. After this year, there is no certainty we resign any of Gray, Mahle or Maeda. That leaves us with Ryan, Ober and the three prospects (four if you include Balazovic). At least one more dependable, controllable and cheap SP arm is highly desirable heading into ‘24 and beyond.

4. Ideally, we do not want to move any position player assets who have a reasonable chance to be impactful on the roster in ‘24-‘26.  This list includes Arraez, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien, Rodriguez, Miranda, Wallner, and maybe one of Larnach or Kiriloff. This list probably does not include Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Gallo, Celestino, Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, Urbina, and possibly one of Larnach or Kiriloff. 

Conclusion: We definitely could use another reliable 100 IP starter to both maximise our chances this season while giving us a solid core rotation heading into ‘24-‘26.  Any package of the position players listed above to get that done which includes (if required) a) one of either Farmer or Polanco, b) one of either Kepler or Gallo, c) one of either Celestino, Larnach or Kiriloff, and d) one of Miller, Sabato, Cavaco, or Urbina makes sense and might be doable. The order of interest IMHO would be: Cabrera, Luzardo, Lopez and Rogers.

Luzardo seems to be a controllable guy through 2026……he was touted very highly due to his stuff……….always a good thing. Learned how to pitch and had real success in ‘22 over 100 innings. He seems to be plenty of upside for TWINS.

Trade back controllable pieces for Luzardo:

Julien - Martin - Rodriguez - Kirilof  (2 of these)

&

Kepler - every day solid with potential upside at the plate with the shift eliminated. (doubt Gallo is tradable - would gladly add him & keep Max)

&

Pagan or Lopez - upside with stuff, experience. Analytics seem to like their velocity - spin - etc. Maybe Miami thinks they can harness their lack of command in the zone?

To me, that’s a haul for Miami, 3 potential guys for active roster plus one really good prospect!

[darin617]

On 1/13/2023 at 11:24 AM, Doctor Gast said:

 

Why not put Arraez at 2B & trade Polanco? Because Polanco when he's allowed to play healthy is solid at 2B where Arraez has no range & will be a disaster there. Arraez is a OB machine especially facing RHPs, but he normally can't beat out an INF hit, take an extra base or steal one nor score on a short OF fly. Polanco is a very good clutch switch hitter and a better runner.

I'm not not against trading Polanco, eventually Lewis will take his spot. But not now.

The exact point on Arraez. If the Twins can put him in a trade as a main piece for some pitching get it done.  He is a fan favorite that is a hitting machine, no power though. Arraez is a defensive liability at any position. Best position would be DH, but I'm slightly old school and want power out of the DH and not a slap hitter who also lacks speed.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a great topic and will continue to generate comments well after some kind of trade is made.  I will start by saying I'm willing to trade for more pitching and even willing to include Ober in a trade if it brings back a pitcher or two as part of the package.  I'm not willing to trade Lewis, Lee, Kirilloff, Rodriquez or Julien.  I'm also not willing to include Balazovic because his value is so depressed I've got to give him one more year to show me he's a keeper.

So with that said, even though I'm a big fan of Arraez, with Julien waiting in the wings, I'm more than willing to trade Arraez to Miami if it brings back Cabrera and either Luzardo or Max Meyer.  Julien's on-base skills project to be on a par with Arraez plus he's got more power.  With health always a concern for pitchers and with injuries holding back the pipeline our F.O. was supposed to be building, I stockpile young, controllable arms.  I determine who of Gray, Mahle and Maeda (if any) that I want to keep going forward (at least one should remain).  But young bats like Lee, Lewis, Rodriguez and Julien are vital to our future lineup.  All but Rodriguez are highly likely to be up at some point this season, and Rodriguez is probably knocking on the door for 2024 at some point.