Let's see your best trade with the Marlins for pitching...

[bap3141]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Gallen would be fun.

The screaming in these forums about his damaged UCL would be less so.

That would be part of the fun for me.  I love watching some Twins fans in this forum cry about the many ways in which they do not want to have super-star players on their team.

[Brandon]

Lopez

Max Meyer 

An A ball prospect 

for

Wallner

Lewis

Kepler

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

How about this offer?  (Marlins could also bring back Nick’s brother Dee).
 

[howeda7]

Kepler, Paddock, Pagan and $2 million for Edward Caberera. Lopez is simply too costly per trade values. 

 

 

[milkytoast]

Larnach and Festa for Cabrera.

[nicksaviking]

I'm pretty sure everyone's got to stop using the trade calculator website for Cabrera's value. It's nowhere near accurate. The guy was a top 100 prospect three years running prior to his callup and then backed up the hype at the MLB level.

I mean, otherwise why don't the Twins just trade Caleb Thielbar for him straight up? The site is fun, but it also tends to be confusingly inaccurate.

[Steve Lein]

16 hours ago, TyCobb367 said:

Seems everyone is undervaluing Cabrera in these scenarios. I don’t think they’re looking to trade him and his 4 years of team control. I see him as a potential ace, and Alcantara and him are real close friends. Those two could be the best 1-2 in a couple years. I have no interest in Lopez and his two years of control until he get way overpaid! I’m going Eury Perez. Perez for Kepler and Larnach would be my initial offer.

Maybe. But the Marlins have Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Max Meyer, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett... And the Marlins I'm pretty certain have said they'd listen on Cabrera. I've said multiple times I don't understand the valuations on these guys when it comes to BTV. My proposal to kick this off, for example, comes off as a major OVERPAY, from the Twins.

For your Eury Perez example, Arraez, Kepler, AND Larnach still isn't close from the Twins side.

There's a bit of embarrassment of riches when it comes to young, controllable pitchers on their team. Similar to the Twins in a way when it comes to corner outfielders. There can be a match!

[Steve Lein]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

An interesting way to look at this is "would you trade Luis Arraez + others for 2 years of Joe Ryan?" Ryan missed time last year due to covid, not some arm injury or anything, but otherwise he was was pretty close in everything to Lopez. Lopez averaged 5.6 innings per start (180 innings, 32 starts), Ryan was at 5.4 (147 innings, 27 starts). Lopez 3.75 ERA, Ryan 3.55. Lopez 8.7 SO9, Ryan 9.2. I don't see any reason to believe Lopez would be our #1, let alone "a #1." He's no ace. I'm not giving up more than Arraez for him, and I'm not sure I'd even give up that much.

Kepler and Nowlin for Lopez.

This is my feeling on Lopez as well. I want an opportunity/chance to improve the top of the rotation and Lopez doesn't do that for me. Then the 2 years of control vs 4+ thing basically takes him off the table in my mind.

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

For your Eury Perez example, Arraez, Kepler, AND Larnach still isn't close from the Twins side.

And the Marlins are in a brutal division; they aren't competing next year and I'm sure they know it. I know Max Kepler is the guy we all are looking to move, but I don't see why the Marlins would have any interest. 

Save the Kepler ideas for contending teams. 

[Steve Lein]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

And the Marlins are in a brutal division; they aren't competing next year and I'm sure they know it. I know Max Kepler is the guy we all are looking to move, but I don't see why the Marlins would have any interest. 

Save the Kepler ideas for contending teams. 

I would have no issue substituting a Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner type instead of Kepler. Though I'm going to ask for more from the Marlins in that case.

In my opinion, Luis Arraez and a lottery ticket is enough for one of the pitchers, but I don't want that pitcher to be Lopez. Anything else gets a Dax Fulton or up to Max Meyer/Sixto Sanchez added into the conversation.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm pretty sure everyone's got to stop using the trade calculator website for Cabrera's value. It's nowhere near accurate. The guy was a top 100 prospect three years running prior to his callup and then backed up the hype at the MLB level.

I mean, otherwise why don't the Twins just trade Caleb Thielbar for him straight up? The site is fun, but it also tends to be confusingly inaccurate.

Agree. I believe Cabrera and Luzardo have similar value, but I also think Arraez is a fair comp to either of the two Miami pitchers. Because pitching is difficult to acquire i wonder if Arraez plus Larnach is a fair offer for either Marlin hurler. To acquire both would be insane. Is it even worth discussing? Does a Martin, Raya, Miller, Wallner package added on for the other guy even interest the Miami brain trust? This is just throwing spitballs but trying to find a means to adding one (or more) of Cabrera, Luzardo, Fulton, Meyer.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

And the Marlins are in a brutal division; they aren't competing next year and I'm sure they know it. I know Max Kepler is the guy we all are looking to move, but I don't see why the Marlins would have any interest. 

Save the Kepler ideas for contending teams. 

The Marlins not competing is an interesting situation to me. I agree Kepler isn't their top target from the Twins, but I don't think it's because they aren't trying to contend. They clearly have a ton of pitchers (I mean that's why we're even talking about them), and I think we all agree that having a bunch of young, cheap, talented arms is a really solid way to compete. How long should they wait before they try to compete?

I doubt Cohen stops spending anytime soon. The Braves have about 35 guys locked up for the next 20 years (clearly exaggeration, but they have a ton of talent locked up for longer than the Marlins have their arms locked up). The Phillies have Harper for the rest of his career, and aren't in a city that would handle them tanking any of his years well. I don't think they should be sitting back and waiting for their division to suddenly turn into the AL Central. I think they need to make big moves to improve their offense, and it's why the Twins aren't really a great fit. Not a bad fit, but not a great fit. Arraez, and maybe Polanco, would be the only guys I'd think they'd really even be calling on. Unless you're talking Lewis and Lee type near, or already, MLB ready top-100 global prospects. But in that case you need a better pitcher, with more control, coming back than Lopez.

[MN_ExPat]

16 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

I have come up with a new proposal that I ran through BTV and was accepted.

Edward Cabrera and Pablo Lopez for Kirilloff, Kepler, Martin, Lewis, and Hidalgo

Thoughts?

I would want to find a replacement for Lewis... but who knows, something along those lines could work.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Something based around Larnach and Julien (and maybe another piece or two) for Luzardo. IF possible, try and get another piece coming back. But that's where I would start.

 

IF the need is Arraez to get in the conversation, I'd push for at least Lopez and a good 2nd piece coming back too. Not necessarily another starter, but a comp 1st round pick or a decent prospect as well. 

[August J Gloop]

This is my mad science idea around all this. 

The Twins have been doing all sorts of things that can't be done lately. I start with a package that gets Alacantara and Luzardo. That's going to be costly in terms of prospects. I'm guessing Lee is right at the tippy top of that, but OK. So we'll say: 

Lee, Arraez and let's just say Balazovic for starters. I'm sure that there might need to be a little more added to that spicy deal, but they have enuff. It can work.

Then we talk to the Tigers about Javy Baez. Yeah I know, stick with me here. Max goes to Detroit to do with as they please. Polo heads over to first as now the Twins have the best up the middle defense in maybe the whole league. I could consider Polo at 3rd but throwing has always been his downfall. He's got great hands. The Twins can eat the rest of that kinda silly deal and get most of it back in great defense and once in a while things like this will happen: 

(I could be convinced that Gleyber is a more responsible choice but If you can put Baez's exemplary D and Chaos at the bottom of the lineup you do.) 

Now then, we work with the starters to figure out a sensible rotation through the rotation. Obviously, Sandy, Joe, Luzardo and Sonny are are all guaranteed starters, but the rest of the injury guys and such can do a load sharing deal. That puts two of Mahle, Ober and Maeda ready to step in for 2-3 innings pretty much any day. 

The top heavy bullpen gets free agents Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin and Michael Fullmer. The payroll gets north of 180. 

If you're wondering? Yes, I have been playing OOTP this week. 

[clone52]

baseball trade values says this works.

Pablo Lopez for Max Kepler, Josh Winder, Emmanuel Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

I would pull the trigger.

Edward Cabrera for Max Kepler and Nick Gordon.

I would pull the trigger on this too.

Lopez and Cabrera for Kepler, Winder, Kiriloff, Gordon, Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, clone52 said:

baseball trade values says this works.

Pablo Lopez for Max Kepler, Josh Winder, Emmanuel Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

I would pull the trigger.

Edward Cabrera for Max Kepler and Nick Gordon.

I would pull the trigger on this too.

Lopez and Cabrera for Kepler, Winder, Kiriloff, Gordon, Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

 

Dang, that feels like a ton for Lopez. Rodriguez is a top-100 global prospect. He alone is too much for Lopez. Kepler and Winder for Lopez is a little intriguing, though.

Kepler and Gordon for Cabrera I'd do in a heartbeat. I don't think the Marlins would be in for that, though. 

[nicksaviking]

36 minutes ago, clone52 said:

baseball trade values says this works.

Pablo Lopez for Max Kepler, Josh Winder, Emmanuel Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

I would pull the trigger.

Edward Cabrera for Max Kepler and Nick Gordon.

I would pull the trigger on this too.

Lopez and Cabrera for Kepler, Winder, Kiriloff, Gordon, Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

 

 

 

Even if the Marlins wanted Kepler, and I really doubt they do, that's nowhere near enough to get Cabrera. That's probably not even half of what it will take to get him.

[clone52]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Dang, that feels like a ton for Lopez. Rodriguez is a top-100 global prospect. He alone is too much for Lopez. Kepler and Winder for Lopez is a little intriguing, though.

Kepler and Gordon for Cabrera I'd do in a heartbeat. I don't think the Marlins would be in for that, though. 

 

Lopez for Rodriguez straight up is ridiculous.  There is no way you can find a trade even close to that ever.

1.5 years of Mahle cost Steer, Encarnacion-Strand and Halljer.  Steer is pretty similar to Rodriguez, maybe a little lower rated.  Lopez is a little better than Mahle and you get him for 2 years instead of 1.5.  Its just silly to think Rodriguez is "too much" for Lopez.

 

[clone52]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Even if the Marlins wanted Kepler, and really doubt they do, that's nowhere near enough to get Cabrera. That's probably not even half of what it will take to get him.

Probably right.  That website b under values Cabrera.

Everything I've read says that the Marlins need OF and that they are looking to compete.  I know the NL East is stacked, but the Marlins have pieces and if they didn't think they could complete in the next 3 to 4 years, they would probably shop Alcantera in order to reload for 5-6 years down the line.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, clone52 said:

baseball trade values says this works.

Pablo Lopez for Max Kepler, Josh Winder, Emmanuel Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

I would pull the trigger.

Edward Cabrera for Max Kepler and Nick Gordon.

I would pull the trigger on this too.

Lopez and Cabrera for Kepler, Winder, Kiriloff, Gordon, Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.

 

 

 

Lopez is Joe Ryan, with two years of control.

Why do people want him so badly? No way I don that deal. No way. 

OTOH, at least it is not trading all the TWins bad players for a legit player like some of the offers in this thread. 

[nicksaviking]

17 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Probably right.  That website b under values Cabrera.

Everything I've read says that the Marlins need OF and that they are looking to compete.  I know the NL East is stacked, but the Marlins have pieces and if they didn't think they could complete in the next 3 to 4 years, they would probably shop Alcantera in order to reload for 5-6 years down the line.

The Marlins need help up and down their lineup. Jazz Chisholm is the only long term piece they can count on. Their entire lineup is almost exclusively 30-year-olds who aren't any good. They need way too much help on offense, and as we've all seen the last several years, Kepler no longer helps on offense.

It would be like the Marlins trying to headline a package for Joe Ryan using Jorge Soler.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, clone52 said:

 

Lopez for Rodriguez straight up is ridiculous.  There is no way you can find a trade even close to that ever.

1.5 years of Mahle cost Steer, Encarnacion-Strand and Halljer.  Steer is pretty similar to Rodriguez, maybe a little lower rated.  Lopez is a little better than Mahle and you get him for 2 years instead of 1.5.  Its just silly to think Rodriguez is "too much" for Lopez.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree on Steer being a similar prospect to Rodriguez and Lopez being any better than Mahle. I don't think Lopez is any more than a mid-rotation starter, and it's why I wouldn't give up anything all that impressive to get him. Certainly not a guy with Rodriguez's upside, plus a decent arm with 5 years of control left, plus a comp pick, plus a servicable ML outfielder on a good contract.

[Minny505]

So, from a trade value perspective, I would rank the 4 Marlins pitchers being shopped like this

Cabrera > Luzardo > Rogers > Lopez

Seems everyone on this board generally agrees with me, but trade simulator has them as

Lopez > Rogers > Luzardo > Cabrera

With Cabrera far behind the other 3, who are relatively close.

Are we overvaluing Cabrera or is BTV undervaluing him? Similar to ZIPS, they use an algorithm with slight manual tweaks as needs and they are generally in the ballpark on values, also similar to ZIPS.

Because Cabrera absolutely seems like the most valuable of them and the guy I'd prefer if the exchange rate is equal.

[Minny505]

7 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

So, from a trade value perspective, I would rank the 4 Marlins pitchers being shopped like this

Cabrera > Luzardo > Rogers > Lopez

Seems everyone on this board generally agrees with me, but trade simulator has them as

Lopez > Rogers > Luzardo > Cabrera

With Cabrera far behind the other 3, who are relatively close.

Are we overvaluing Cabrera or is BTV undervaluing him? Similar to ZIPS, they use an algorithm with slight manual tweaks as needs and they are generally in the ballpark on values, also similar to ZIPS.

Because Cabrera absolutely seems like the most valuable of them and the guy I'd prefer if the exchange rate is equal.

Looking at ZiPS, Steamer, and the rest of the projections, seems we are far too high on Cabrera as he is essentially projected to by Joe Ryan, while the rest project to slot into our #1 spot.

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Looking at ZiPS, Steamer, and the rest of the projections, seems we are far too high on Cabrera as he is essentially projected to by Joe Ryan, while the rest project to slot into our #1 spot.

It really doesn't matter how ZiPS or the trade calculator value him (maybe the calculator uses ZiPS?), it matters how the Marlins value him.

Cabrera is a 24-year-old who throws 96-97 MPH, who has been a top 100 prospect for three years, had a great rookie season and has six years of control left. He's the most valuable of them by any measure of common sense. If the Marlins somehow disagree, than it's a no brainer to trade for him.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Looking at ZiPS, Steamer, and the rest of the projections, seems we are far too high on Cabrera as he is essentially projected to by Joe Ryan, while the rest project to slot into our #1 spot.

Fascinating. I'm not a Lopez believer at all. I wonder what their systems are seeing to project him to be any better than Joe Ryan.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

It really doesn't matter how ZiPS or the trade calculator value him (maybe the calculator uses ZiPS?), it matters how the Marlins value him.

Cabrera is a 24-year-old who throws 96-97 MPH, who has been a top 100 prospect for three years, had a great rookie season and has six years of control left. He's the most valuable of them by any measure of common sense. If the Marlins somehow disagree, than it's a no brainer to trade for him.

If the Marlins value Lopez higher and Arraez+ was what they wanted for him I hope the Twins are on the phone right now trading Arraez for Cabrera straight up. (It kills me a little each time I type any variant of the word "trade" and Arraez in the same sentence that doesn't include "not")

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fascinating. I'm not a Lopez believer at all. I wonder what their systems are seeing to project him to be any better than Joe Ryan.

half a win, for next year. That doesn't take into account 4 extra years of control, and that Ryan was a rookie last year who could get better.....Lopez is projected as a number 2/3 pitcher, not some ace.

[Minny505]

40 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It really doesn't matter how ZiPS or the trade calculator value him (maybe the calculator uses ZiPS?), it matters how the Marlins value him.

Cabrera is a 24-year-old who throws 96-97 MPH, who has been a top 100 prospect for three years, had a great rookie season and has six years of control left. He's the most valuable of them by any measure of common sense. If the Marlins somehow disagree, than it's a no brainer to trade for him.

Agreed. None of them truly matter, but they do give us a gauge (from what I've heard on pods) as to how teams value their own players as they are similar to the modeling systems most teams have in-house. 

It would be quite interesting to hear how rank these guys. I'd essentially take the least expensive of Rogers/Luzardo/Cabrera.