Do the Twins Have a Trade Partner Out West?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season, just before Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins got on the horn with the San Diego Padres and made a move. Fast forward to where we are now, and it’s not unfathomable to think that A.J. Preller could be open for business again.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey sent Taylor Rogers (and Brent Rooker) to the San Diego Padres a season ago. He dealt his closer in hopes of getting immediate value in Emilio Pagan while taking a flier on the health of Chris Paddack. It didn’t work out well for anyone in year one, but Minnesota has a second season of their return to right that ship. This time around, the Twins could aim a bit higher.

Currently, the Padres project to have a top-five payroll across Major League Baseball. They shocked the sport when signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal. He’ll be into his 40s by the time that wraps up, and they already have a star shortstop in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr., though; that is where opportunity may lie.

It seems hard to believe the Padres would want to piece parts out going into the season. The Los Angeles Dodgers are not better than last year, and San Diego is attempting to win the NL West. If there is a logical candidate in the near term, it’s probably shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Although Tatis is suspended for a PED violation, Bogaerts can take over at shortstop, and Kim could be flipped to gather another asset of need.

The former KBO standout is not otherworldly, but he did post a 107 OPS+ last season while playing 150 games. He is a solid defender, and Kim represents an upgrade over assumed Opening Day starter Kyle Farmer. He’s only 27 years old and doesn’t hit free agency until 2027, so the acquisition cost likely would not be cheap.

The Padres present some intriguing opportunities that could come once the season begins. If they don’t play to expectations early, there are a handful of talents the organization could piece out. It’s a near certainty that Manny Machado will opt out of his deal and become a free agent again next offseason, making him an attractive rental option. Tatis Jr. could also be moved if the Padres decided his immaturity wasn’t worth keeping around. A young superstar on a long-term deal would net plenty and could be a way for San Diego to reposition themselves within the luxury tax.

From a pitching perspective, I suggest Yu Darvish or Blake Snell could be had. Both have bigger dollars remaining, which could help offset whatever the prospect capital would be assumed in return. Darvish and Snell could easily slot in among the top of Minnesota’s rotation, and for a club looking to improve upon either Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, that would be a path to get there.

It was good to see the Padres load up by adding Juan Soto last season, but it wasn’t enough to advance to the World Series, and there is little reason to assume he won’t be targeting the highest payday by waiting two years to reach free agency. If Preller decides that an extension before 2025 won’t happen, the way San Diego pivots throughout the next season and a half will be incredibly interesting.

The Twins have substantial money to spend this offseason yet, and there needs to be more in the way of free agency to make that happen. Trading for salaries that may be bloated but would incorporate a talent boost for the roster is a way to make it happen. The front office hasn’t shied away from making multiple deals with the same teams, and they could go down that path again here.

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[Doctor Gast]

SD has a sour taste in my mouth, a lot has to change before I can get that taste out of my mouth.  IMO Tatis is a problem & is expensive, Darvish doesn't want to come here, Snell isn't an upgrade. Kim isn't enough an upgrade to justify the cost of players needed in a trade. Besides IMO SD has to be absolutely horrible before they give up.

[tony&rodney]

Trade Sonny Gray to San Diego for Dylan Lesko if you think San Diego is a good trade partner. 

[KirbyDome89]

So the Twins need to trade from a bottom tier farm for more short term pitching? Hard pass. Same goes for Machado. Good luck coming up with the kind of package SD would command for Tatis, it's not even worth thinking about. 

SD is looking to compete, and they control Kim essentially through his prime. At worst, he's a solid utility option and Bogaerts insurance at SS. Idk why they'd be in a hurry to move him this year, i.e. it's likely they'll need to be blown away to let him go. Is that the type of asking price MN should meet for a solid but unspectacular SS? 

 

[MTV]

I like a few of the options here: Kim is an upgrade over Farmer and would be a perfect placeholder for Lewis/Lee, as he can cover SS and 3B relatively well, plus it’d be an upgrade over Miranda at 3rd. Snell seems like an intriguing #2 type who fits the Twin’s style of pitching: throw 5 solid innings an outing and don’t try to do more. We have the payroll to eat his one-year contract and I like the variety of a lefty in the rotation. I doubt they give up Machado/Tatis/Darvish but that’s fine. Grisham and Morejon look like interesting pieces but I won’t make this comment too long. Gray and Kepler would slot in well in San Diego, so we have assets they would like too. Let’s see if a trade happens and if we can get the better side of the deal this time.

[CRF]

Howz about we trade Pagan back to them? For just about anyone or anything. 

[Mike Sixel]

Why is SD trading pitching? 

If only Darvish had been a free agent at one point.....

The Twins have Lee and Lewis, why are they trading for a SS? Help me or here. I really don't understand any of these suggestions from either side. 

[MGX]

I'd like to see this 3-team trade...

Padres get - Jacob Miller(minors Mia 2nd rounder in '22) & Caleb Thielbar
Marlins get - Trevor Larnach & Jorge Polanco
Twins get - Jesus Luzardo, Bryan De La Cruz & Ha-Seong Kim

On the trade simiulator it works out to be a balanced trade, whatever that's worth.

[Blyleven2011]

The only trade from the west coast that has worked out remotely is maeda and we'llsee if he can be a comeback player ...

San Francisco  burned us , San Diego  gave us crap so far and we paid the salary for Roger's to play in San Diego  ...

We always seem to pick up the LA  angels rejects in free agency or minor trades and that hasn't worked  either ... 

Falvine just hasn't had a good knack for evaluating talent , the only evaluation they are good at is how cheap they can acquire someone ...

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The only trade from the west coast that has worked out remotely is maeda and we'llsee if he can be a comeback player ...

San Francisco  burned us , San Diego  gave us crap so far and we paid the salary for Roger's to play in San Diego  ...

We always seem to pick up the LA  angels rejects in free agency or minor trades and that hasn't worked  either ... 

Falvine just hasn't had a good knack for evaluating talent , the only evaluation they are good at is how cheap they can acquire someone ...

Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, say hi. I mean they signed Cruz when no one else did. This idea the front office is stupid is just not true. They aren't perfect, not close, but, well, they also aren't stupid. Also, when every front office in the history of the team is "cheap", it is likely not them that is the problem. 

[Blyleven2011]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, say hi. I mean they signed Cruz when no one else did. This idea the front office is stupid is just not true. They aren't perfect, not close, but, well, they also aren't stupid. Also, when every front office in the history of the team is "cheap", it is likely not them that is the problem. 

 

Maybe terry Ryan was to conservative and falvines are risk takers ...

[rv78]

"This time around, the Twins could aim a bit higher."

They could but won't. When you spend $11M for a .160 hitter in Gallo their aim is about as low as it can go and having plenty of spending money is slowly being resolved by using it on worthless players. 

[MN_ExPat]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Trade Sonny Gray to San Diego for Dylan Lesko if you think San Diego is a good trade partner. 

[Trov]

10 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The only trade from the west coast that has worked out remotely is maeda and we'llsee if he can be a comeback player ...

San Francisco  burned us , San Diego  gave us crap so far and we paid the salary for Roger's to play in San Diego  ...

We always seem to pick up the LA  angels rejects in free agency or minor trades and that hasn't worked  either ... 

Falvine just hasn't had a good knack for evaluating talent , the only evaluation they are good at is how cheap they can acquire someone ...

You point out a few moves that did not work out great, but not any of the moves that did work out, when you say the FO has not had a good knack for evaluating talent.  First, please point to a single FO that never misses on trades or signings, my guess you will not find one.  Second, the FO has made many trades or signings of players that they were not "burned" on.  Yeah, they missed on some, every FO does.  

Yes, the Dyson trade ended up being terrible, but is that on the FO, as Dyson was pitching up to the trade with no stints on IL to suggest his arm was about to blow, but what did we give up?  So far the only player they traded away that has made MLB is Davis, who has played small parts of 4 seasons, is 28 and played less than 40 games.  The pitchers still have a shot as they are young, but neither are top prospect guys.

The deal with SD last year was not as bad as you always like to make it seem.  Rogers did what he always does, has a good stretch, but then did nothing and was below replacement at end of season.  Sure, Pagan was just as bad, and Paddock will most likely only give us 1 year of pitching, but not like Rogers would have carried us to the playoffs or anything. 

[RJA]

The problem the FO faces is that they generally don't compete in the free agency market and they haven't (as yet) developed a really productive pitching pipeline like the Rays or Guardians, leaving them always looking to trade for pitchers with one to two years of control.  When you have to do that regularly, it depletes a farm system quickly--like losing Povich, Steer, CES, Hajjar, Rojas, and Nunez last year.  This FO either needs to sign free agents or do a better job of developing their own talent.  Buxton, Polanco, Arraez and potentially Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Lewis, Lee, etc. show that they can do it with position players, now they need to have the same success with pitchers.  Let's hope they do.  In any event, a trade is generally not the answer unless it involves players like Ryan with a lot of years of control.

[Otaknam]

The Twins problem is that they are not a contender unless they can keep their players healthy and a couple of young arms emerge as legitimate starters. As I have stated before, my fear is the FO will trade a potential impact minor leaguer, like Lee, Lewis, or SWR for a starter with two years of team control. It sounds like Kim is a solid player but I’m not sure a trade for him is necessary. 

[tony&rodney]

23 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

my fear is the FO will trade a potential impact minor leaguer, like Lee, Lewis, or SWR for a starter with two years of team control.

Agree .... and my hope is that the Twins can make a trade for a starter like Edward Cabrera or Jesus Luzardo using players already on the expected 26 person roster.