Are the Twins Frontrunners for Carlos Correa?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

If Correa wanted to be a Twin he would still be a Twin. The Twins alleged offer wasn't that different from the Mets offer. 

It was $30M less. Pretty big difference no?

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

Running the numbers I still think MN falls just short but not as short as I originally believed.  Turns out the FO had a good offer from the start I just couldn't see it at the time.  If Correa wants to be a Met he will be Met if wants to be a Twin he will be a Twin.  The Twins did their part as Correa asked them to.  Will he do his part?  That remains to be seen.

You honestly believe the Twins knew SF and then NY would outbid them and then renege? I mean c'mon....

[LewFordLives]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It was $30M less. Pretty big difference no?

Not if you put it in discounted present value terms. The Mets deal was spread over more years. Of course, it's all about the optics of being over $300 million. Whenever they announce the deal with the Mets, even if it ends up being less than $300 million there will be all kinds of clauses and options so that one might conclude, under the best circumstances, it's over $300 million.

[Dman]

14 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You honestly believe the Twins knew SF and then NY would outbid them and then renege? I mean c'mon....

To me it doesn't matter if they knew or not but it looks like the value they placed on him was about right.  I said it would take 300M or more but I think he falls short of that now at least in guaranteed money.

[KirbyDome89]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

To me it doesn't matter if they knew or not but it looks like the value they placed on him was about right.  I said it would take 300M or more but I think he falls short of that now at least in guaranteed money.

It absolutely does if you're going to argue that their initial offer was a good one. If they didn't know SF would back out, then no, coming up $65M short wasn't a proper valuation. 

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It absolutely does if you're going to argue that their initial offer was a good one. If they didn't know SF would back out, then no, coming up $65M short wasn't a proper valuation. 

But in the end even though they offered that he didn't get it so it doesn't reflect his market.  They could have offered him 400M or 500M if he doesn't get it he was never worth 400M or 500M or 350M.  Even the Mets didn't pick up the 350M offer. If his market ends up around the Twins number then it seems they read it correctly to me because that will have been actual price paid.  His actual market regardless of whether they thought the Giants or Mets wouldn't want to give him 12 or 13 years because of the leg will be the number he signs for.  If the Mets are balking at 315M it sure looks like his actual value will be right around what the Twins offered. So yeah I think they had his value pegged pretty well.

I gave the FO a really hard time as I thought 300M was the starting line and they never made it there.  It looks like I am going to be wrong and in the end they are going to be pretty close.

[KirbyDome89]

19 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Not if you put it in discounted present value terms. The Mets deal was spread over more years. Of course, it's all about the optics of being over $300 million. Whenever they announce the deal with the Mets, even if it ends up being less than $300 million there will be all kinds of clauses and options so that one might conclude, under the best circumstances, it's over $300 million.

The years don't matter. Why people refuse to acknowledge this Idk. A 40 year old Correa isn't signing a deal for anywhere close to $30M AAV, even though the value of that amount won't be equivalent to today. It's not about optics, it's about maximizing the money while he's at the peak of his earning potential.  

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

But in the end even though they offered that he didn't get it so it doesn't reflect his market.  They could have offered him 400M or 500M if he doesn't get it he was never worth 400M or 500M or 350M.  Even the Mets didn't pick up the 350M offer. If his market ends up around the Twins number then it seems they read it correctly to me because that will have been actual price paid.  His actual market regardless of whether they thought the Giants or Mets wouldn't want to give him 12 or 13 years because of the leg will be the number he signs for.  If the Mets are balking at 315M it sure looks like his actual value will be right around what the Twins offered. So yeah I think they had his value pegged pretty well.

I gave the FO a really hard time as I thought 300M was the starting line and they never made it there.  It looks like I am going to be wrong and in the end they are going to be pretty close.

It did prior to the physical. Again, you either have to believe the Twins could forecast the future, and knew multiple deals would fall through, or they missed twice and might back their way into a signing. One scenario is much more likely than the other. 

[garn from vancouver]

why do the twins want a player that doesn't want to be a twin?

[Dman]

12 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

It did prior to the physical. Again, you either have to believe the Twins could forecast the future, and knew multiple deals would fall through, or they missed twice and might back their way into a signing. One scenario is much more likely than the other. 

I can't really argue whether they thought other teams might think the plate in his leg would be an issue once you get past 7 years or so and with 12 and 13 year offers that could be a big deal.  They did have the advantage of having his medicals and knowing his potential health issues so maybe that is why the furthest they would go was 10 years and tried to up the AAV.  Still odds are they would have no idea what those other teams felt would be acceptable risk.  So yeah unlikely they would know for certain the Giants would renege on their offer.  On that point you have me but whether by luck or circumstance it appears their number was a good one for actual value of the player.

[KirbyDome89]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

I can't really argue whether they thought other teams might think the plate in his leg would be an issue once you get past 7 years or so and with 12 and 13 year offers that could be a big deal.  They did have the advantage of having his medicals and knowing his potential health issues so maybe that is why the furthest they would go was 10 years and tried to up the AAV.  Still odds are they would have no idea what those other teams felt would be acceptable risk.  So yeah unlikely they would know for certain the Giants would renege on their offer.  On that point you have me but whether by luck or circumstance it appears there number was a good one for actual value of the player.

Agreed, which to me disqualifies their initial offer as "good," when they came up well short 2x. If Correa does end up signing for something close to what MN offered, it'll be due to circumstances well outside of the Twins' control and understanding. 

[LewFordLives]

47 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The years don't matter. Why people refuse to acknowledge this Idk. A 40 year old Correa isn't signing a deal for anywhere close to $30M AAV, even though the value of that amount won't be equivalent to today. It's not about optics, it's about maximizing the money while he's at the peak of his earning potential.  

The years absolutely do matter. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar 13 years from now because of inflation and opportunity cost of money (he can invest and earn a rate of return on that dollar he gets today).  The Twins deal (reportedly) was less nominal dollars, but it was over fewer years so it was presumably more front loaded. So he may have gotten more money up front than the Mets deal.  Depending on how you discount the dollars, the Mets deal might still be slightly higher than the Twins deal , but it's not $30 million in real terms.  And when you're dealing with that amount of money, the difference is essentially a wash.

[Steve71]

I am on record that I still believe the Mets and Correa and Boras will work out a deal.

But all the people on this Board who bashed the Twins FO for "lowballing" Correa and now valiantly defending their original opinions by rationalizing that the Twins FO had no way of knowing that both the Giants and Mets mega-deals would never be consummated to date.

The Twins FO analyzed his value and made a very, very large offer.  They were not "cheap" or "mis-read the market".  They made their decision and extended their offer.

If Correa ultimately signs a different deal with the Mets it will likely be for reasons that have plenty to do with elements the Twins FO has no control over:  size of market;  team competitiveness; comradery on team (Lindor); and marketing opportunities (which dovetails with market size).

There is nothing to be angry about here, truly.  It is a business negotiation.

[KL1551]

He’s not coming here.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

The years absolutely do matter. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar 13 years from now because of inflation and opportunity cost of money (he can invest and earn a rate of return on that dollar he gets today).  The Twins deal (reportedly) was less nominal dollars, but it was over fewer years so it was presumably more front loaded. So he may have gotten more money up front than the Mets deal.  Depending on how you discount the dollars, the Mets deal might still be slightly higher than the Twins deal , but it's not $30 million in real terms.  And when you're dealing with that amount of money, the difference is essentially a wash.

Correa's earning potential at 38 won't be remotely close to what it currently is at 28, and that gap between what type of AAV he can command now vs. down the road is much more important than the value of the dollar 10 years vs. 12-13 years from now. It's not even close to a wash. 

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

 from the beginning there should be a creative heavy incentive contract that can max out at $45MM/ year. That would include time playing SS, 3B, DH; World Series, ALC, post season games won, division championship and game played. And guarantee $15MM if he can only play at DH towards the end of his 10 yr contract. This just a guide line something that could work from. On the surface it looks like a 10yr/ $450MM contract (which would satisfy Correa's ego) yet in reality would be closer to 1/2 that price. If he wants no trade or trade approval, opt outs give it to him. It'd be contract that could be attractive to any team that'd like him in trade. If he doesn't like it let him walk.

My worry that FO act out of desperation because of their lack of success in this offseason (much like this Gallo move). They don't listen to the doctors & insurance & proceed believing that nothing will happen. And again something happens & we are holding the bag again. 

Your on to to something good , I like the creativity  . I always have said a fixed salary and  a contract ladened  with incentives  , all contracts should be incentitised and you'd get better performance  from a player ...

Remember our hero's of yesteryear  played for peanuts and supplemented their baseball salary by taking jobs in the off season  ... 

They gave us their heart in those days ...

 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Steve71 said:

I am on record that I still believe the Mets and Correa and Boras will work out a deal.

But all the people on this Board who bashed the Twins FO for "lowballing" Correa and now valiantly defending their original opinions by rationalizing that the Twins FO had no way of knowing that both the Giants and Mets mega-deals would never be consummated to date.

The Twins FO analyzed his value and made a very, very large offer.  They were not "cheap" or "mis-read the market".  They made their decision and extended their offer.

If Correa ultimately signs a different deal with the Mets it will likely be for reasons that have plenty to do with elements the Twins FO has no control over:  size of market;  team competitiveness; comradery on team (Lindor); and marketing opportunities (which dovetails with market size).

There is nothing to be angry about here, truly.  It is a business negotiation.

Holy cope, are you actually arguing that the Twins knew SF and NY would balk after verbally agreeing to deals?

The Twins were $65M, then $30M short, and never once got to $300M, a number nearly everybody thought was the starting point for acquiring Correa, but they didn't misread the market? 

The FO had, and by some accounts still does have, full control; they just have to spend the actual $$ it'll take to secure Correa's services.

[Monkeypaws]

I'd be glad to have him back - if we saw a unicorn, i.e. a healthy Buxton, that alone would be worth the price of admission. Add another unicorn, a healthy Kiriloff, and it could get interesting, with Miranda and Arraez. Grey, Ryan, maybe Mahle, maybe Maeda, Ober, Winder, etc.

Lotsa ifs would make this reunion worth while. Lotsa ifs and maybes. Perhaps too many for CC to consider coming back. The Mets are stacked.

[Steve71]

Yes, I am saying that the 10/$285M offer (which is what was reported somewhere but never actually confirmed to have been made) was an excellent offer.  It may not end up being the highest offer, but it is difficult to argue that it was not fair market value when we have yet to see Correa actually consummate a deal for a higher figure to date.

Again, he is likely to sign with the Mets.  But if he signs with the Twins for that figure--or near that figure--would that make the Twins offer "cheap" or are they now "overpaying"?  Seems to me that this Twins FO can't win with some critics.....

[LA VIkes Fan]

9 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

If Correa wanted to be a Twin he would still be a Twin. The Twins alleged offer wasn't that different from the Mets offer. 

Guys, he’s going to go to the Mets because he wants to go to a team that he thinks will compete for the World Series consistently over the life of his contract. The Mets are willing to spend the money to do that, the Twins aren’t. If the money is roughly the same, I think most of us would go for the team that has a better chance of being a winner. Right now, that’s the Mets.

[dxpavelka]

On 1/6/2023 at 11:50 AM, EGFTShaw said:

Nice opine...but my opinion is it is not that black and white.

While there is larger context to the fact the Twins will not be considered a market for the upper echelon FAs to sign until after they splurge BIG on someone.  I was hoping they would go through with a deal for C4.  But $285/10yr was never going to get it done.  Oddly it may now given the concerns over his ankle.  Different thread tho.

Nelson Cruz was a good signing.

Lance Lynn was not.

Due diligence on not only the player's performance and health, but also on the player's character and professionalism.  Even longer than 1-year deals can sour as shown by the JD historic signing and later dump to NYY.

C$, given what everyone in the club house has said, would be a good person to make that splurge.  Not sure if XB or DS would have been.  TT and the Slide Machine would have been, but he was East Bound and Done, Loaded Up and Trucking to the east coast.

I am not sure that Rodon would have been the good signing, but I do like me a lefty top the order pitcher.

 

12 hours ago, Eris said:

I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to offer a 9 year deal that was not contingent on a physical especially since both the Giants and the Mets had enough concerns to scuttle their deals with Correa. 

The article clearly states that the Twins are comfortable with his physical condition based on knowledge from last season AND that any deal would require another physical.  Not sure where  the mistake comes into play.

[laloesch]

15 hours ago, garn from vancouver said:

why do the twins want a player that doesn't want to be a twin?

Exactly.  IT does appear he really doesn't want to be a Twin and wants to go play in big city NY with all the glamour.  Minnesota is not for everyone.

[Otaknam]

There’s nothing there. Scott Boros leaking rumors to help his negotiations with the Mets, whose “money is no object owner” is all in on getting Correa. Just move on!

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

Exactly.  IT does appear he really doesn't want to be a Twin and wants to go play in big city NY with all the glamour.  Minnesota is not for everyone.

i think it's less about that and more about trying to maximize his contract? At least initially, SFG & NYM offered more. More dollars, more years. And you can't take stuff like this personally in free agency.

If we'd gone 12/$350M out the gate, he probably would have signed with us. If we'd gone 12/$325M when the SFG deal collapsed, we probably win that one.

[bloomwcjkl]

So the Twins should be willing to ignore the medical issues that blocked the Giants and Mets from signing Correa?

Hmmmm.

How about he plays out years 2,3 of his contract and we see if he can still play at a high level at 31?

Only the Twins would willingly walk into 3-5 years of dead money.

[Dman]

10 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Guys, he’s going to go to the Mets because he wants to go to a team that he thinks will compete for the World Series consistently over the life of his contract. The Mets are willing to spend the money to do that, the Twins aren’t. If the money is roughly the same, I think most of us would go for the team that has a better chance of being a winner. Right now, that’s the Mets.

I think you are right. Correa is someone who cares about his legacy and building HOF career.  Much easier to do that on a team that seems likely to compete for a WS every year.  With the lineup they have pitchers are more likely to pitch to him as well.  The Mets are far and away his first choice which shows his words about MN were more of a fall back position.  In case no one else really wants me I always have MN.

Yeah if the Giants are out there really isn't much of a market for Correa other than the Mets and the Twins.  Maybe the Cubs?  The Dodgers, LA, SD, Phili, NYY, seem done spending big.  If would be odd if Boston was in after letting Bogaerts go. So Cohen is right Correa needs the Mets more than the Mets need Correa.  So if he wants to go there it looks like it will take a discount of some kind to get there.

Borras is up to his old tricks holding out for more.  Given the market he might end up needing to get Correa another short term deal.

[SanoMustGo]

3 hours ago, laloesch said:

Exactly.  IT does appear he really doesn't want to be a Twin and wants to go play in big city NY with all the glamour.  Minnesota is not for everyone.

Neither is the dumpster fire that is NY.  Been there a few times...pass

[Craig Arko]

35 minutes ago, Dman said:

Boras is up to his old tricks holding out for more.  Given the market he might end up needing to get Correa another short term deal.

Which is precisely what the Twins should offer, and it should look very much like years 2-3 of the original 3 year contract. 

[IA Bean Counter]

Ted gets some credit here.  Good Job.  

[Ted Schwerzler]

Hopefully everyone thinks I'm a bit less of an idiot now?