Please Don't Sign Michael Wacha

[Matt Braun]

It doesn't have a lot to do with Michael Wacha.

Image courtesy of Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports

 

A recent report in The Athletic, which reads more like an off-hand comment than a groundbreaking revelation, purports that the Twins have expressed interest in RHP Michael Wacha.

Now, “expressed interest” is a favorite baseball term that can loosely define every style of relationship a team can have with a player. Thad Levine vaguely dreaming about Wacha could lead to the team “expressing interest.” The Phillies have “expressed interest” in Mike Trout for a decade. The term means nothing.

The connection makes sense, though. The Twins have yet to sign a major-league pitcher; Wacha is an arm capable of accruing outs between reasonable levels of runs scoring. With a bunch of theoretical payroll space and Carlos Correa probably still signing with the Mets, the Twins should spend their money on something. It’s a perfect pairing. 

But we’ve been down this path before. J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer are four other arms who once possessed some nebulous upside, enough to convince a professional franchise to pay them money for their pitching labor. What happened after those players signed is well-known; we don’t have to tread that path again.

Wacha is his own man, though; it would be unfair—and illogical—to believe he would match those past pitcher’s sins just because he loosely fits their outline. The Red Sox, Mets, and Rays, teams run by baseball people far brighter than us casuals, looked at Wacha, glanced at his numbers, and believed in him enough to guarantee millions of dollars to the former Cardinal standout. These weren’t teams chasing a false promise; they fairly gambled that, with a few alterations, Wacha could provide enough production to bring their franchise value. 

The bet didn’t work for the Mets or Rays, but it worked enough for the Red Sox that one could generously declare their deal a success. 

So, Wacha could do the same for Minnesota; that possibility remains tangible. The issue is a baseball-specific sunk cost fallacy mixed with classic roster manipulation. Those past deals—beyond turning sour as each pitcher failed to play well—failed because the Twins continued to send those arms out to die. Bundy inhaled 140 real major-league innings. He’ll now slither into baseball obscurity on a minor-league deal with *insert team here.* Or he’ll become an ace. Baseball is funny like that.

The Twins told Bundy to go get 'em so often because, well, they were paying him $4 million, and people like seeing a return on their investment, but also because of flexibility. Or, rather, a lack of it. In a naturally conservative institution like baseball, hitting the eject button on a player is a nearly unalterable act. Without those tasty minor-league options, a franchise has to sneak a player by other teams, hoping that no one notices that a capable arm is now free for anyone to acquire. When that fails because the Diamondbacks need someone to throw slop for them, the team takes a vicious hit to their depth. So Bundy stays because he’s somewhat usable.

In that sense, Bundy is useful; every team unwillingly hands out innings to players they’d prefer to avoid starting—hopefully, Adam Wilk is enjoying life. It’s the nature of pitching. But Bundy also blocks others. Louie Varland remains in the minors because Bundy isn’t terrible; he certainly earned a few victories for the Twins, but is he so much better than Varland that the Twins should eschew the youngster in favor of the veteran?

This was the essential issue of the 2022 Twins; no one was truly horrifyingly bad, but instead existed in a mediocre haven, making it difficult for the team ever to cut bait. At least Shoemaker made it clear he was cooked. 

Wacha is probably not better than Varland; that’s the article. If you sign a pitcher with a good chance at being below-average—and without disrespect, Wacha fits that mold—you create fake depth; at least Varland can go to St. Paul if he starts pitching poorly. With Wacha, you just have to grin and bear it, only cutting bait once he reaches unforgivable status. Or, in Twins shorthand, if he “Shoemakers” it.

 

 

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[dberthia]

I can't express enough my disdain for the Twins' history of bringing-in mediocre retreads to "eat innings". On the other hand, we haven't made Minnesota an attractive enough destination to land any of the guys who could truly make a difference.

[JD-TWINS]

Player attraction is driven by $$$ & winning tradition. Minneapolis is what it is…..can’t dress it up to be New York. Pay guys & start winning Divions - playoff games!!

In the interest of winning now, spend some of the available $ we do not need to pay CC. Get a Wacha or Cueto to start the year so we can groom Varland another 2-3 months (remember, Mahle may collapse after 5 starts or he could be a surgery candidate by March 20???) Assuming health, getting another starter allows Maeda to move to the Pen. Strengthens Pen dramatically & conserves Maeda’s arm first half of year. At the end of June you can displace whoever you like out of rotation based on results……..maybe Maeda becomes starter? …….maybe the FA is performing? …….maybe SWR or Varland are really ready!!

Take another $17 million & sign Fulmer from FA market & another reliever, a left hander,  from FA market.

Our staff would have great depth & would be formidable. The guys are out there to sign. Act.

[cHawk]

What even is the point of bringing in Wacha? He's a mediocre pitcher on the wrong side of 30. Adding such a pitcher to "eat innings" will not improve the Twins in any way, shape, or form. If Falvine plan on employing this strategy every offseason, they can respectfully take a hike.

I want a team that makes the playoffs consistently. Is that not what Falvine promised from the beginning? We've missed the playoffs in two consecutive seasons with this strategy. Employing this strategy for a third consecutive offseason is unlikely to yield different results.

[mikelink45]

I agree with the other posters - Wacha is not going to move the needle.  He is not better than what we have. If he was as good as his won - loss record last year Boston would resign him - they need help.  But his history is not good. Check out his erratic performane on BR.

When teams desperately need SP - the fact he is still available should raise red flags.  

[sun]

Fans have a right to be skeptical. But the reality is that some pitchers are worth the gamble. Carl Pavano was all but washed up, but when the Twins gambled on him he pitched with class. Guess what? Today is Pavano's birthday! The Twins are going to do what they're going to do. As fans all we can do it watch & root for the team. That Pavano was able to pitch 10 complete games  for the Twins between 33 - 35 years of age wasn't too shabby. Starting pitchers only need to keep the game close. After that it's up to the hitters and the bullpen. Happy Birthday Carl, the Twins fans still love you!

  https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pavanca01.shtml

[jmlease1]

About the only reason to bring in Wacha is if the Twins don't think Mahle and/or Maeda will be ready to pitch on opening day. The rotation looks solid already with Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, and Ober with Varland, Winder, Woods Richardson and Balazovic waiting in AAA, and Paddack possibly back by midseason. Wacha doesn't move the needle, doesn't raise the ceiling on the starting pitching.

Yes, injuries are an issue but at some point you have to let guys like Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson etc pitch. I'm a no on Wacha. Feels like spending money to spend money.

Bundy's only real skill last season was health. Great, he took the ball every 5th day, but he wasn't GOOD. Would Wacha really do much more?

[Matthew Lenz]

Totally agree. No reason to take away an opportunity from Varland/Ober/Winder for a guy like Wacha.

Unless you’re getting a 1 or 2 type pitcher (which they’re not) just stick with what you’ve got.

[Greglw3]

There are almost always injuries. Twins have Mahle and Maeda that will/won’t be healthy? The long term saying in baseball, "you can never have too much pitching" exists for a reason. Teams often have to use 8 or 9 starters throughout the year. Varland, Woods Richardson will be in the starting 5 if they pitch well.

I think Macha would be excellent depth, even if he’s in starting 5. If all 5 are healthy and pitching well (what are the chances of that for the whole season?), then he could work out of the bullpen while all 5 are healthy and pitching well.

I’m old school, I don’t believe in WAR, OAA, UZR. Just read a Nov. 2020 article by Bill James where he says WAR is virtually worthless.

Another writer agreed with my observaton that it relies too much on defense (based on flawed metrics like OAA, in which Carlos Corea was in the 18th percentile last year even though if you’re a savvy fan and you watched the games, you know he deserved the GG and has one of the strongest arms at SS in the last 50 years).

I like the good old fashioned professional scouting 20 to 80 rating system of every tool and trust it a lot more than stats that imply things that are truly absurd.

With that as background, I’m impressed with the fact he was an all star pitcher with the Cardinals and that in 2022, he went 11-2 (personally lifting a team 9 games above .500) and backed it up with a Red Sox rotation best 3.32 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. At a certain point, you have to see that all the traditional stats, when they are consistent, as here, can’t be wrong.

That’s 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

I don’t care about FIP or similar statistics because they don’t measure quantifiable objective events that happen in the real world.

https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_real_problem_with_war/

 

[jorgenswest]

8 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

That’s 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

The sample size for those stats needs to be multiple seasons to be meaningful. Using that data in a sample of 127 innings would be very unreliable. The other ERA projectors are more reliable ERA projectors but not great. Whichever data is used a three year sample is much more reliable in projecting forward.

[SanoMustGo]

This team will not be competitive for years..tell the Pohlads to keep their money and rebuild the farm system, and let the prospects play.

[ValleySpringsFan]

Agreed, the Twins might as well let their younger pitchers get some experience instead of letting them be blocked by an unreleasable innings-eater. 

The only time I've enjoyed watching an "eater" on the Twins was Bob Tewksbury in 1997-1998. Great mental approach. And he celebrated his 100th career win in 1997 with a party for the team. I remember wondering why Tewks was excited about "only" 100 wins, but you think about it, getting 100 MLB victories is hard. You have to be a bonafide MLB pitcher for maybe 10 years (it took Teaks 12) to get there. Worth celebrating, for sure.

Wacha still has 26 more wins to go before he hits 100. Really won't be fun to watch. Let's let him pitch somewhere else in 2023, and see how Woods-Richardson and the others do instead.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, dberthia said:

I can't express enough my disdain for the Twins' history of bringing-in mediocre retreads to "eat innings". On the other hand, we haven't made Minnesota an attractive enough destination to land any of the guys who could truly make a difference.

 Minnesota is attractive enough to Louie Varland and SWR and Dobber and  Ober and Winder...and they are hungry, as are all inexpensive pitchers in the Twins minor league system. And that is the point of this article.

[rv78]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The sample size for those stats needs to be multiple seasons to be meaningful. Using that data in a sample of 127 innings would be very unreliable. The other ERA projectors are more reliable ERA projectors but not great. Whichever data is used a three year sample is much more reliable in projecting forward.

The FO doesn't look at previous performances much less 3 year sample sizes or they wouldn't make any of the moves that they do. They see short periods of success on a player and think the guy will/can do that forever. Take a player like Jorge Lopez with a short-term window of success. they jumped at him and he was horrendous for 5 seasons previously. They stuck with Sano and Kepler and both have not produced outside of 1 short year window in their 8 year careers. Anyone with half a baseball brain can look at the players they bring in and/or keep and see that most of these guys are average to mediocre at best yet they think they are the answer. Now add Gallo and his .160 BA and you can see what I mean. Falvey and Levine are either blind or have on rose colored glasses that they got at the five and dime store..

[Twodogs]

Looking at his stats, Wacha doesn't even really seem to eat innings.  127 last year, in a good year.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Can't... resist... aaaaaargh!

 

 

[Otaknam]

10 hours ago, Twodogs said:

Looking at his stats, Wacha doesn't even really seem to eat innings.  127 last year, in a good year.

Dumpster diving again! This FO needs to learn that it’s time to see what they can get from: injured starters coming back (Maeda, Paddock, Mahle) and a lot of arms trying to make the roster. The only way the team is competitive is for the young players to recover from injuries and play up to their talent, two young starters emerge, and for Buxton to finally be healthy, I’m still on edge over the potential for the FO to mistakenly trade potential impact players Lee, Lewis, or SWR for some short term patch on another oft injured number three starter.

[Coach Wheels]

On 1/8/2023 at 11:19 AM, cHawk said:

What even is the point of bringing in Wacha? He's a mediocre pitcher on the wrong side of 30. Adding such a pitcher to "eat innings" will not improve the Twins in any way, shape, or form. If Falvine plan on employing this strategy every offseason, they can respectfully take a hike.

I want a team that makes the playoffs consistently. Is that not what Falvine promised from the beginning? We've missed the playoffs in two consecutive seasons with this strategy. Employing this strategy for a third consecutive offseason is unlikely to yield different results.

Wacha, 11 wins and a low 3.00 ERA in 23 starts in 2022. He is far better than Bundy, Archer, or Varland. 

[DocBauer]

If the Twins...who have a ton of $ to spend on the roster left...were really "interested" enough to sign Wacha I wouldn't scream bloody murder, and the sky wouldn't be falling.

1] They just might want to hedge bets on everyone being healthy and not feel they have to "pressure" Winder, Varland, and SWR immediately in to a starting role.

2] They MIGHT decide Gray to a team needing a quality starter with 1yr and the qualifying offer available for prospects..or players..to add to the system to maybe make ANOTHER trade and go after a younger, controllable SP such as Lopez.

I DON'T like trading Gray because we're SUPPOSED to be trying to compete. That's why we traded for him in the FIRST PLACE. Not only could he be re-signed, but he could receive a QO next year, I believe.

And at some point, you have to take the training wheels off your young pitchers and give them opportunity. 

I've read "rumors" the FO isn't done and might want to shake some things up. Well, that's pretty much going to happen via trade at this point. (Though there are a handful of solid FA to augment the roster still available). And IF they do so, replacing some of what you trade isn't a horrible idea.

But we should be beyond the 30yo, average-ish, back end SP types at this point.

[Steve71]

Twins are holding off signing Wacha and Fulmer and Chaffin until they know whether they are going to get Correa signed.

I have no intel on this, but it is a wild-assed guess and I am sticking to it! :)