Gilberto Celestino’s Long-Term Upside

[Cody Christie]

Gilberto Celestino has had a rocky start to his big-league career. However, the former top prospect offers plenty of long-term upside if he continues to develop.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Houston Astros originally signed Gilberto Celestino as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in 2015. He played his first three professional seasons in the Astros organization before being traded to the Twins along with Jorge Alcala for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline. His first full season in the Twins organization was spent at the Low-A level, where he posted a .759 OPS in 117 games. He was over a year younger than the average age of the competition, so signs pointed to even more potential. 

In 2021, Minnesota was aggressive with Celestino coming out of the pandemic by sending him to Double-A. He made brief stops at Double-A (34 games), but the club was forced to promote him to the big-league level because of a lack of outfield options on the 40-man roster. He struggled in 23 games by hitting .136/.177/.288 (.466) before being demoted to Triple-A, a level he had never experienced in his professional career. His performance dramatically improved in St. Paul as he posted an .827 OPS over the season’s final 49 games. Despite his struggles, Celestino looked like a long-term outfield option for the Twins. 

Minnesota wanted Celestino to get more experience at Triple-A to start the 2022 season, but the club needed him again in the big leagues. He went on to play over 120 games for the Twins and only logged seven total minor-league at-bats in 2022. Celestino showed some of his true potential in May when he hit .364/.426/.418 (.844) with three doubles. Those numbers are far from his minor-league track record, and he only had one other month during the season with an OPS above .600. He was inconsistent, but he was only 23 years old with little experience in the upper minors. 

Last season, Celestino played all three outfield positions, with most of his playing time coming in center field. Baseball Savant ranked him well in Outs Above Average (79th percentile) and Arm Strength (93rd percentile). His Outfield Jump ranked slightly above average and is the most significant area he can improve. He’s had minimal experience in the corner outfield spots throughout his professional career, which might be one reason his Outfield Jump was lower this year. As he gets more experience in the corners, he can get a better read on the ball and see better defensive numbers. 

Celestino ranked in the 20th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, hard hit %, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel %. Those numbers are certainly lower than the Twins would like, but his lack of experience in the upper minors is tied to some of his struggles. There are positive signs in his offensive profile. He ranked in the 63rd percentile for BB% and the 86th percentile for chase rate. Celestino has a good eye at the plate, so he needs to translate that into making solid contact on a more regular basis. 

Across baseball, the average OPS has dropped by over 50 points since 2019. During the 2019 season, the league average for OPS was .706, but the Twins posted a .718 OPS, which ranked fifth in the American League. Celestino has been an above-average hitter during his professional career. He has posted a .753 OPS in over 1,600 plate appearances in the minors. It will be up to the Twins and hitting coach David Popkins to unlock Celestino’s power at the big-league level. 

Celestino could benefit from more time in Triple-A, but that might not be a luxury the Twins can afford. Byron Buxton needs regular time at the DH spot, and Celestino is the best back-up centerfield option on the 40-man roster. The Twins also mentioned that Joey Gallo has the potential to play sometime in center, but he’s made less than 50 starts at the position during his big-league career. Celestino needs to be on the roster as Buxton insurance. 

There is more to unlock with Celestino in the years ahead. He’s only 23 years old, and he’s still entering the prime of his career. The Twins need someone who can play centerfield regularly with a bat that stands up when the player has to fit into a corner outfield spot. Celestino will continue to improve on both sides of the ball, which makes it exciting to think about his long-term upside. 

What is Celestino’s ceiling? Can he improve his power numbers at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Riverbrian]

I hope Gilberto gets better year by year and day by day. I will not bet against him. 

However... He must start next season in AAA and play his way into a roster spot when his chance comes. 

It wasn't his fault but he was a long way from what we required of him last year. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I hope they don't mess the guy up by forcing him to develop "power". Not every player has to be a HR hitter. He's done well at legging out doubles in his career.

I long for the days when a guy who could play the game of baseball was appreciated.

[mikelink45]

I am always mystified by the criticism he receives.  Force fed into the majors he has answered the call.  If he were a starter his statistics might require some hard looks, but he is 23  (almost 24) and he is handling CF when called upon - 112 games there .  Last year Buxton had only 57 games in CF and 60 the year before - 117 games - only five more than Celestino. 

Please no Gallo in CF!  

I look for him to continue to improve and I am happy to have him on the team.  

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Cody for a spot on article, contrary to the negative hype that's out there. I expect him take another step this year w/ the a little more seasoning in AAA. Celestino is a very good hitter, let him develop his power on his own w/o focusing on launch angle. We don't need another SO king- Sano, Gallo, Sanchez & Jeffers are more than enough.

[Nashvilletwin]

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

[Nine of twelve]

26 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

2-5 all bat left handed. (So do Kepler and Gallo.) We need a decent-hitting RH bat for the outfield. I think Celestino will be that player within the next year or two.

[Dman]

Celestino got off to a hot start last year but also had an unsustainable BABIP.  I didn't watch a ton of Twins games last year but when I did I saw him mainly hit singles.  I did sour on his bat as the season went on he was kind of a black hole in the lineup.  

If he doesn't develop power then to me he is a 4th outfielder at best.  Still he is a right handed outfield bat and I believe he will improve as time goes on.  As most on here are saying he should start at AAA and earn his way back up. 

[ashbury]

Ceiling? Major-league starting-caliber center fielder. He turns 24 in a few weeks so there is still room to reach that tier, but he needs to improve both at bat and on defense, whether at St Paul for part of 2023 or in the majors. I would not entertain trade offers lightly on him - up the middle talent is too scarce and is difficult to acquire, as witnessed by the price we paid to get him.

[Nashvilletwin]

15 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

2-5 all bat left handed. (So do Kepler and Gallo.) We need a decent-hitting RH bat for the outfield. I think Celestino will be that player within the next year or two.

Rodriguez is also a lefty. Buxton, Martin, Celestino and Urbina are the four right-handed bats of the nine.

So without trades or FAs, it would be up to Martin, Celestino or Urbina to be a “decent-hitting RH bat”. My money is on Martin, but Celestino could very well be that player.

[PatPfund]

I laughed hard at this one. Like a Randballs Stu post!

Gilberto mixes some physical ability to defend with a bat that does not look MLB-ready, and frankly some of the stupidest plays I've seen recently in the majors. Playing him in the minors isn't a luxury, it is the only chance he has to figure it out. (Or maybe the Twins can put a radio in his cap to tell him how many outs there are before every pitch.) Kepler and Gallo are both better options to backup Buxton (better defenders right now, and despite their issues, both better at the plate).

If Celestino has trade value, the Twins should cash in on it; if Gilberto gets 80 starts for the team this year, it probably means another OF meltdown, and another lost season. Maybe someday he gets better, but he should do it in St Paul first.

[USAFChief]

Celestino looks like a career replacement player to me. Modest defense, not enough bat.

 

He'll never hold down a starting big league job, but he'll hang around with a job in AAA for a half decade and get occasional 5th OFer service time.   

 

 

 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

The trouble is - both Gallo and Kepler are still here  

[AceWrigley]

Improving his baserunning awareness and throwing decisions will help.

[DocBauer]

When the Twins acquired Celestino, I was intrigued. Not blown away, but intrigued. (Duran was the prize at the time, IMO). But after his 2019 season, mostly at then LOW A Cedar Rapids, I became optimistic we got a really talented young OF with potential. He hit, got OB, stole bases, and provided XB and some HR power. What was there to not like?

And as Cody pointed out, despite missing 2020 entirely, and only 8 GAMES at high A, he began 2021 at AA. 

Two very bad things have happened to Celestino the past two years:

1] With a grand total of 8 games at A+ in 2019 and a whopping 21 games at AA he was promoted/rushed to the BIGS due to a vast array of injuries. He clearly wasn't ready. And what did he do? He went to AAA and basically raked for 49 games.

2] The Twins went in to 2022 with Garlick as their only RH OF bat, besides Buxton, which had been an obvious weakness for a couple of years. So they "trusted" the rushed and not yet ready Celestino to play a significant part on a team that was expected to compete for a post season spot. 

Sorry, not sorry, the kid has talent but had a cup of coffee at AA and 2 cups at AAA before being asked to be a productive ML OF and hitter. And despite this, he won't even turn 24yo until just before ST starts.

Honestly, if you step back for a moment and reflect, his rushed promotion has been handled in the same "p*ss-poor" manner as was Polanco. (Old but accurate reference). Polanco overcame these early issues to become a very good ML player. And "very good" might be under selling him. The very best thing the Twins could do, and should do, is ADD a RH bat better than Garlick...beating the same poor horse yet again...and let Gordon and Gallo cover CF when Buxton needs a day off. The team, the lineup needs it, and so does Celestino so he can play daily at St Paul, get his legs under him, hit and play, take everything he's learned, get better, adjust, round off the rough edges, and be ready when called on.

HIS CEILING: A starting CF for many teams, but a fill-in with Buxton entrenched. IDK if he has it in him to be a 20 HR hitter, but he's got XB pop/power in his bat, XB and SB ability, and hit and OB ability based on his milb career. (POTENTIAL starting LF for the Twins over several options, including Martin who might look better NOW).

HIS FLOOR: Everything stated above but as a 4th OF who plays great defense in all 3 spots, as well as PH, PR, and and adds decent hitting, OB, pop/power, etc, but on a 4th OF basis.

SHAME on the FO, IMO, if they ignore a RH OF bat need for the ML 2023 team and ignore the potential of a quality asset that could pay dividends with a little more development time. 

[HerbieFan]

Were it not for Buxton injuries would we have even seen Celestino's MLB debut yet?  Absolutely HAVE to be patient with him.  Already a good (not great yet) CF defensively.  

IF...and it's a big if...there is any reason to bring in a more veteran 4th OF that can play CF and hit RH, it's to let Celestino play every day in St.Paul in order to develop the bat.

[Nashvilletwin]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The trouble is - both Gallo and Kepler are still here  

Gone by ‘24

[stringer bell]

I’m really not convinced Celestino will ever hit enough to be a regular outfielder. His hitting metrics were no better than in 2021. 
 

Beyond that, he was a poor base runner and made several poor throwing decisions. IMHO, he has a long way to be capable in all facets of the game. I’m especially disappointed with his supposedly good speed At midseason, he had grounded into as many double plays as he had RBI and he had stolen zero bases. The numbers got a bit better in the second half, but he’s still very substandard. 

[AceWrigley]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

SHAME on the FO, IMO, if they ignore a RH OF bat need for the ML 2023 team and ignore the potential of a quality asset that could pay dividends with a little more development time. 

That bat might be Austin Martin.

[Fatbat]

19 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Thanks for the article. It feels like Celestino has been a bit of the forgotten man this off-season. 

Having said that, where does Celestino currently rank among our potential outfielders for ‘24? (IMHO, ‘24 and beyond are for what we should be building and any success in ‘23, which we all hope is a lot, would be delicious, unexpected gravy).

For argument’s sake let’s just assume Kepler and Gallo are gone. Here’s one ranked pecking order for our ‘24 outfield:

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon (that’s right - he’s our #2 OFer and deserves it).
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff (sorry, Arraez and Miranda are manning 1B in ‘24).
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin.  
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.

So, assuming six of those players break camp with the team in ‘24 and no other FAs or trades, Celestino is right in there with a chance - injuries and failure to scale at the majors level are very possible, if not likely. So the key for Celestino, just like really all the players not named Buxton on that list, is to get the ABs and innings at the appropriate level to maximise development.

Btw, with health and continued development, that list looks pretty  darn good with a solid mix of power, speed, AVE/OBP, L/R batters, defense and low cost/controllability.  If only Buxton could reliably stay on the field and be the true anchor of this group…..

AK will man 1st base in 2024. Martin and Erod will be shuttling between mpls and st paul. Celestino will be our 5th outfielder after spending 1/3 of 2023 in St. Paul.  The kids just need more development but we will be stacked with good controllable OFs. 

[Nashvilletwin]

19 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

AK will man 1st base in 2024. Martin and Erod will be shuttling between mpls and st paul. Celestino will be our 5th outfielder after spending 1/3 of 2023 in St. Paul.  The kids just need more development but we will be stacked with good controllable OFs. 

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs.

’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs.

With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players. 

 

[Fatbat]

5 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs.

’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs.

With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players. 

 

That list looks great with Correa on it but I doubt he will be here. Erod and Julien are still babies in 2024. One or both will still spend significant time in st. Paul but I do love your list! A home grown team would be awesome to see developed finally! 

[gman]

Pretty obviously Celestino lost development time in the minors. If he had played regularly in the minors for 2 years with time to work on his weaknesses he would probably be ready for his role as starting center fielder. Buxton will get the nod as starter, but at most he is just a part time player with no ability to plan when he can play. Unfortunately that means keeping a center fielder on the bench ready to play most of the time but no specific games.

[saviking]

I don't like Celestino's lack of power and mental lapses on defense. If Martin is ready mid season (who bat's right) and proves himself I would be all for trading Celestino. But for now his ability to play centerfield will keep him here whether in the bigs or AAA waiting Buxton to get injured. 

That said, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Buxton has his first heathy full season. 

[Old Twins Cap]

One of the few games I went to last year, maybe against the Tigers?, Celestino fielded a ball in fairly deep center running away from the play, and heaved it all the way home on the fly, where Sanchez tagged a runner out.

He does have a good arm.  Mental mistakes can be fixed, but not length on throws.  That Ben Revere, when he came up, I was like, "How can he possibly make it in the big leagues?  No length to his arm or his bat."

Put some more power in Celestino's bat and he could be a keeper. 

It's a big diamond in MLB, Christian Dior big, and you have to make plays involving great length.  That takes a MLB body.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Kiriloff is 1B in ‘24 only if Arraez is traded and Sabato doesn’t beat Kiriloff out. Otherwise, the ‘24 infield are these five players: Lee, Lewis, Julien, Miranda and Arraez (5) - it will be 6 total if Correa signs.

’24 outfield will be these six players: Buxton, Gordon, and four of Larnach, Kiriloff, Rodriguez, Wallner, Martin and Celestino. Only five total if Correa signs.

With Jeffers and Vazquez, that makes 13 position players. 

 

Celestino should be part of a trade along with, Pagan, Kepler, López for best we can get. Can’t hit the ball to left of 2nd baseman - no power - not bright on bases - OK outfielder. He got innings last year because 5 outfielders in front of him in the organization were hurt - no other reason.

 

2024 roster estimation:

Infield……..If Correa signs one of Lee - Lewis - Julien - Miranda will get traded due to their upside & everyday player ability. Arraez.

Catcher………Vázquez & Jeffers 

DH………Larnach (placeholder - actually a rotation)

Outfield……….Gordon - Walner - Kirilof - Rodriguez - Buxton

Kirilof & Arraez & Buxton & Walner get DH at bats…….Kirilof plays as much 1B as OF.

Payroll is $45 million OR $74 million.

Would prefer to have $105 million for our pitching staff, if needed!!! (vs. $76 million)

[MGM4706]

Definitely needs to be in St. Paul! Has speed but no clue on how to play a wall (Just like all the young Twin Outfielders). Could be a future backup.

[jorgenswest]

Reading this thread reminds me of the Eduardo Escobar threads at a similar age. It isn’t unusual for an up the middle player to arrive before their bat is ready yet still develop to their potential while spending time on the bench. I would bet on Celestino in his prime years being a starting outfielder.

[Reptevia]

“The Twins need someone who can play centerfield regularly with a bat that stands up when the player has to fit into a corner outfield spot.”  And they should sign one!  Meanwhile, Celestino goes to Saint Paul to learn to be a big leaguer.