The Five Twins With the Most to Prove in 2023

[Ted Schwerzler]

For the second season in a row Derek Falvey and Thad Levine watched as the roster they architected failed to finish with a winning percentage above .500. Despite leading the AL Central for much of the season, injuries mounted and September baseball became apathetic before an uninspiring October finish. Who helps them turn things around remains paramount for the 2023 club.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the offseason there was no denying that a reunion with Carlos Correa needed to be priority number one. With the Twins never advancing far past their original plan during the season, an offer that Scott Boras would entertain never became present. That meant a pivot needed to happen in acquiring more talent for Rocco Baldelli’s group. Both Christian Vazquez and Joey Gallo are fine additions, but they won’t be enough.

It’s certainly possible that whatever is done to raise Minnesota’s payroll as a whole before March is uninspiring. That’s why the bulk of Minnesota’s heavy lifting is going to need to come from within. For a team that believes they were snakebit with injury, and an organization that has seen the graduation of many top prospects, it’s beyond fair to tell those established on the 26-man roster “we need you now.”

Among those, these are the five (in no particular order) with the most to prove:

Ryan Jeffers
This should almost go without saying. The Twins front office had an immense amount of belief in Jeffers when they took him in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft. They then doubled down by trading Mitch Garver to the Texas Rangers prior to last season, and sent the only capable prospect in Ben Rortvedt to New York. Unfortunately he couldn’t recreate the 119 OPS+ from his first 26 Major League games, and instead sank to a career worst .648 OPS while playing just 67 games due to injury. Jeffers looked like he was righting the ship for a time before hitting the injured list, and now with Vazquez in the fold, will be fighting for time again. Gary Sanchez is gone, and the Twins farm system remains relatively empty behind the dish. Having Jeffers put it together would be the long awaited promise everyone has been hoping for.

Alex Kirilloff
Maybe this is a lot to put on a guy that’s only recently just turned 25-years-old, but Kirilloff is no longer a young player. Still ahead of his prime, the biggest issue here is being healthy and real with where he’s at. Kirilloff never got his surgically repaired wrist right last offseason, and therefore was never able to truly take over in left or at first base for the Twins. He’s now undergone an even more substantial procedure, and while the reports have been encouraging, the waiting game has to end. This is a top prospect that looked like a lineup cornerstone. First base could be his with Miguel Sano gone and Luis Arraez having more utility. Finding a way to be a legitimate big league offensive threat is a must. It starts with health.

Trevor Larnach
Much like Kirilloff, this is a similar scenario with a player that’s almost an entire year older. Larnach will be 26 for Minnesota this season, and despite the flashes a year ago, he played in just 51 games due to a core muscle injury. The solid on-base and slugging skills are real, and he’s always been praised for his incredible bat. We got to see an advanced defender in left, and that would be a substantial boost to the outfield flanking Byron Buxton. Larnach will be given every opportunity to post better than the 104 OPS+ he had in limited action last season, and there is no reason he should be seen as incapable of reaching that. Staying on the field is a must, and like Kirilloff, he will be expected to contribute from the middle of the lineup.

Joe Ryan
Maybe this jumps out as a weird inclusion for a guy that was the 2022 Opening Day starter, and someone that posted a 3.55 ERA. The problem is he became a true five-and-dive guy while owning a 3.99 FIP and 4.35 xFIP. Ryan feasted on a lot of bad opponents in the AL Central, but he was battered consistently against better competition. A fine guy to have at the back end of the rotation, Ryan’s necessary workload from 2022 is why the Twins could certainly use another arm better than Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle. He’ll be 27 this season, and there is no denying this is a quality Major League arm, but with the velocity as limited as it is, does Minnesota have a number three or a number five here?

Bailey Ober
There are a few other arms that may have merit for the final spot, but it should be the guy currently penciled in for the rotation’s final spot. Ober was good to the tune of a 3.21 ERA and 2.92 FIP last season. Even aside from the more gaudy 4.18 xFIP, the problem has always been what level of reliability he’ll bring to the table. Minnesota trotted out arms in droves during 2022 because guys couldn’t stay healthy. Ober was among them, throwing just 56 innings across 11 starts. 2021 was a professional best inning total going 92 1/3 on the year, but he’s never previously surpassed 80 in a single season despite five years of work. It seems the Twins have developed a capable arm, but it can’t be relied on if it breaks down this often.

Looking to rebound in an AL Central that should be tight at the top, it will be on players that have gotten used to the divisional race that need to step up. There is plenty of talent for the Twins to make noise if things break in their direction, but it wouldn’t hurt if they made their own luck as well.

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[jmlease1]

Unfortunately, Buxton has to be on this list until he has a healthy season. He's proven he has the talent and skill to be a star, but hasn't proven he can stay healthy enough.

I'm not sure Ryan belongs on here: he had a very good rookie season, limiting the HRs, showing out a good WHIP, stayed pretty healthy through a full season, and showed he could compete. He's pretty locked in.

It's a little depressing how many guys on the Twins need to prove something based on their inability to stay healthy recently. Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Ober, Alcala...

[tony&rodney]

Solid report these five are important to any success possible for the Twins in 2023. Most people would agree that Buxton and Polanco will produce given good health, and all of Kepler, Gallo, and Vasquez could surprise us with their performances. Arraez will hit.

That leaves one guy who is not spoken for - Nick Gordon. He also needs to prove himself, although his case is different. Gordon had a fine year last year and seems capable of even better numbers, yet because he faced so many challenges and took such a slow path to regular work he will need to prove he belongs in the lineup on a daily basis. 

As far as those in the post, they each have different expectations. Jeffers should be able to relax as a backup to Vasquez and hopefully he is able to improve his at bats as well as his blocking with Vasquez as a tutor. I see Ryan as the perfect #4 guy for our starting rotation and his consistency would be welcome there. He can develop without the pressure of being a top guy. Ober fits right behind Ryan as a #5. Hopefully Ober remains healthy. There really isn't any reason to be so careful with the big guy any longer. Either Ober is ready to handle a full load or he gets replaced by another potentially positive starter, Varland. The Twins and their fans should have a good idea of where Kirillof stands by June 1. It would be optimum for the team and their fans if Kirilloff can replicate his Saints run last season in MLB starting in April, but a little patience may be necessary to allow for the rust to be removed. Either way, We should have an answer on Alex by June. With Gallo, Kepler, Gordon, Garlick, and Wallner available to play corner outfield and the potential to throw Celestino and Kirilloff into the mix, it is difficult to see where Trevor Larnach fits with the Twins. I expect him to open the year in St. Paul if he is not used a piece in a trade. Perhaps the Twins move several other players to open an option for Larnach as well. Larnach seems ready to get regular at bats and it may need to happen with another team. If he begins in AAA, I sure hope he rakes to force his way into a regular lineup spot for someone. 

[jjswol]

The list of Twins players with things to prove should include most everyone on their roster and the top two on the list should be Buxton and Pagan.

[Tibs]

Why are all of our young players/prospects injured?

Also, Ober has done more than enough to be more than just penciled in to the final rotation spot.

[rv78]

I agree with jjswol. There are too many to list and limiting that list to just 5 doesn't cut it. I would say the only ones that DON'T have anything to prove would be a much shorter list and that would include Ryan, Polanco, Arraez, Duran, Gray, Miranda, Gordon, and Theilbar, just off the top of my head. Everyone else needs to prove they can stay healthy and be productive players for an entire season.

[TopGunn#22]

Very good list Ted, but I agree with jmlease, Buxton needs to be here.  Of all the Twins players nobody could have a bigger impact than Buxton.  If he plays 140-150 games the benefits would be huge.

[Heiny]

Of all the players on the Twins and including prospects, I have the most confidence and hope for Larnach.  Really don't have any reason other than gut feeling,  but I still see Larnach as a future All-Star and I hope it is with the Twins.  P.S.  Also see Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis as future All-Stars.   --------------OH CRAP,  my crystal ball just fell off the table and shattered.

[Blyleven2011]

I also see a lot of others that need to prove they belong in mlb ...

Without naming names the bullpen needs to prove they all can be counted on to contribute  ... 

The offense needs to prove it can hit with runners in scoring position so that includes the entire lineup for the day  ...

And the coaching needs to prove it is capable of keeping its head on the game  , 2 years running they haven't impressed me ...

I'm sticking to my story  ...

 

[mikelink45]

I liked this article, but like so many posts I think we have a large list of Twins with a lot to prove:

1. Mahle - he needs to be healthy and be a #2
2. Maeda - he has to show that he is healthy and that the short season Cy Young year was not a fluke
3. Buxton - see the other posts
4. Pagan - so much that it is impossible to summarize
5. Lopez - was he a half season fluke?
6. Polanco - is he healthy?  Has he peaked?
7. Miranda - can he continue forward to be the number 4 hitter and drive in runs?
8. Farmer - can he give us solid SS if we do not loop back to Correa?
9. Gallo - can he become valuable or is he a 160 hitter (this is my number one need because I do not like his acquistion.
10. Alcala - is he able to come back to health and production

[Doctor Gast]

The young players that has something to prove. The main thing that Larnach, Kiriloff & Ober need to prove is that they need to stay healthy. Ober was misprofiled as SP, he should be used as long relief/ spot starter before graduated to SP last year. Since that didn't happened, he needs to start out this year as long relief/ spot starter so he doesn't burn himself out. Winder is in the same boat, I'm sure he could excel at long relief/ spot starter but I'm not so sure if he can graduate to SP.

Jeffers needs to prove that he can throw out runners. good luck! Miranda needs to prove that he can man 3B adequately. And Wallner needs to prove he can play MLB RF.

Ryan has nothing to prove, he did everything that was expected of him. This year with a year under his belt, I expect him to take another step. The same with Celestino, with another year under his belt & some more seasoning in AAA, I expect him to take another step.

Varland & SWR needs to prove they can ease into a SP role by pitching long relief/ spot starting role. I expect them to do well. SWR will start at AAA but Varland should be on the active roster.

 

 

 

[rv78]

Doctor Gast is throwing his long relief belief into the ring again. LOL. If that is what it takes then so be it but do we really want or need 4 or 5 guys in long relief? If Gray, Ryan and Mahle are the only starters going into 2023 then the Twins will have to get creative working Maeda, Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Canterino and Henriquez into the mix. With Rocco at the helm I don't see that happening. His spreadsheet says he doesn't need long-relief guys. Oh yeah, don't forget stud Dobnak.

[KirbyDome89]

Ryan doesn't belong on this list. I agree that people don't seem to realize how bad he was against playoff caliber teams, or that nearly 1/3 of his starts came against Detroit and KC, but I think we're forgetting the questions about his ability to stick as a SP due to his lack of a secondary pitch and his low velocity. Barring some massive regression there shouldn't be any doubt about him as a back end guy at this point. That's a W, and obviously one of the better scenarios. There's a weird push to force him into the middle or upper echelon of the rotation. Idk if that stems from his Opening Day start or just general fan hype, but I don't think that was ever a realistic goal. Maybe he exceeds expectations, and that'd be great, but right now he's basically what we could've hoped for when the trade was made so I don't think there's anything for him to prove.

Conversely, we've got guy like Emilio Pagan who needs to prove that gambling on his "stuff," isn't another massive waste of a roster spot. Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Josh Winder need to prove they can stay healthy and be productive.

[Stew]

Buxton should be at the top of the list. Based on last year he would have , 40+ homers , 65+ extra base hits, 90 runs , almost 90 rbi's and plus 10 sb's. Not in the top 2 of mvp but not far behind.

[DocBauer]

I love the Vasquez signing to help the staff. I'm also frustrated at times that people don't realize Jeffers is a good presence behind the plate who has the confidence of the staff. He's got a little over 500 AB and has real potential as a hitter. But because he hasn't hit like his SSS in 2020 he's already some kind of bust. His glove and game calling and results and trust in the coaching staff tells and shows me they believe in his potential. But Vasqyez is here to make him better behind the plate than he already is, and ease the burden of being the #1. Remember when Castro helped Garved realize his potential? Jeffers has SO MUCH potential as a hitter. Don't disbelieve in 500 AB and all of his potential is all I'm saying.

Kirilloff is simple. He has greatness wrapped around him. Just...baseball gods be blessed...this surgery actually works.  Whether he's ready day 1, or needs a few weeks at St Paul to get in a groove, it's ALL about his wrist.

Unlike AK, Larnach's injuries are not chronic, just a Twins top prospect curse, lol. He will be very good to great given a full season.

 

I just don't know what to say about Ryan. Everything about him "plays". I have serious doubts he's ever a #1, and maybe not a #2. Depends on his secondary stuff because at times he just looks like a stud on the mound. But he's NOT a #4 or 5. Velocity isn't everything. Deception and control are paramount. I've seen enough to say "Damn! This kid could be awesome! And I've seen enough inconsistency to say "this kid could be good". Agree he needs to develop and learn and take all his smarts, bulldog mentality, and take it to another level. Here's hoping he does. 

Ober is a HUGE wild card! The Twins were really smart in how they handled him in 2021. He looked good, and got better and better. He was good to very good when on the mound in 2022. Did his past injury gremlin bite again? Or was it just a weird offseason where he just wasn't ready and right after the changes in his approach in 2021? If he's healthy, and right, and a normal progression through the offseason and ST, he might still need to be monitored for total IP, to continue to build him up, but he might have as much pure stuff and potential as anyone on the staff. I would be overjoyed if he could be stretched out to 26 GS, even if it was a little over 5 IP per start. There is just SO MUCH TO LIKE in this kid if they can just nudge him forward and prove that the new arm delivery they began with in 2021 is right.

[Mike Sixel]

Most pitchers aren't as good against the great teams..... This idea somehow Ryan isn't good baffles me. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I’m with Mike. Ryan is showing himself to be a solid, mid-rotation starter, a solid to very good #3. If he improves from there, that’s gravy because we never expected him to be more than that. Realistic expectations on the guy, let’s enjoy the probability of a long-term rotation guy. Very valuable stuff.

[Parfigliano]

13 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Very good list Ted, but I agree with jmlease, Buxton needs to be here.  Of all the Twins players nobody could have a bigger impact than Buxton.  If he plays 140-150 games the benefits would be huge.

Id be shocked if Buxton played 125 games.

[old nurse]

Coming off the season that was a lot of players have something to prove.  The order is easily obtained. Go by salary. It is incumbent upon the 7 and 8 figure players to play p.

Remember when 6 figures was astronomical?

[Karbo]

IMO Varland should be given a chance as the 5th starter and Ober moved to the pen as someone that can go 2 innings. He just doesn't seem capable of a starters workload so far.

[jmlease1]

I've completely excluded Pagan from this discussion because I'm sorry...he's Pagan. He's a fringe roster player at this point that probably shouldn't be here (if for no other reason that the benefits from him figuring things out are vastly outweighed by the PTSD he gives the fans while still figuring it out). He's got a ton to prove, but it shouldn't be here. I hope to hell he's part of whatever trades the team is working on behind the scenes.

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

Coming off the season that was a lot of players have something to prove.  The order is easily obtained. Go by salary. It is incumbent upon the 7 and 8 figure players to play p.

Remember when 6 figures was astronomical?

No offense....but you are old.  Me too.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/7/2023 at 10:56 AM, Tibs said:

Why are all of our young players/prospects injured?

Also, Ober has done more than enough to be more than just penciled in to the final rotation spot.

Can only PENCIL IN a guy whose max innings per year has been 80 innings over 5 years & then to his best year of 92 1/3 in ‘21 was followed up by 56 innings in ‘22. His lack of availability coupled with Mahle questions on health and Maeda coming off surgery are why we should acquire via trade or sign another starter from FA!

Signing starter depth protects against Ober - Mahle - Maeda & the potential/probable problems with at least one of them in ‘23.

Need Varland - Winder - SWR for second line of depth defense!! We’ll need 7-8 guys able to start to get through the year.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I've completely excluded Pagan from this discussion because I'm sorry...he's Pagan. He's a fringe roster player at this point that probably shouldn't be here (if for no other reason that the benefits from him figuring things out are vastly outweighed by the PTSD he gives the fans while still figuring it out). He's got a ton to prove, but it shouldn't be here. I hope to hell he's part of whatever trades the team is working on behind the scenes.

Pagan along with Mr. Lopez to rid ourselves of ghosts of Most Blown Saves (27) of any team I care about in ‘22!

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/7/2023 at 9:59 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Most pitchers aren't as good against the great teams..... This idea somehow Ryan isn't good baffles me. 

YOU ARE RIGHT - most starters don’t do well against better teams! Most ROOKIES don’t get 13 wins with a 3.55 ERA and are plugged in as the #1 guy either!

Gotta cut Ryan a break. If he duplicates last year and avoids slump year we’ve got a really valuable guy!

Another 2/3 of an inning per start gets him to around 165-175 innings in his 2nd year. He’s a potential #2 guy for next 7-8 years.