Jorge Polanco Has a Looming Decision

[Ted Schwerzler]

Prior to the 2019 Major League Baseball season Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made shrewd decisions to sign both Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to extensions. Despite both players being years from free agency, their futures were locked up and gave the organization cost certainty. Now, Polanco’s deal is quickly coming to a crossroad

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Although the Twins may decide to deal Max Kepler this offseason rather than roster him alongside Joey Gallo, there seems to be less of an inclination that slugging second baseman Jorge Polanco is going anywhere. Although he is a failed shortstop, and has dealt with multiple ankle injuries in recent seasons, it’s clear Polanco is still a key piece of what Rocco Baldelli and the Twins want to do.

2023 is a very important juncture for Polanco with the Twins, and while the decision in front of him is not his, the level of health he can display will trigger an option for an extended payday.

When Minnesota inked Polanco to his five-year deal back in 2019, it actually provided an opportunity for the Twins to get seven years out of their former star prospect. The contract includes a vesting option that triggers a $10.5 million salary for 2024 should he reach 550 plate appearances this year, and that would also allow for a $12 million team option to be triggered for 2025 if Minnesota wants to keep him at age-31.

Given a full season of play, 550 plate appearances is something any regular should be able to blitz by. In fact, Polanco has done so in two of the past three full seasons (not including the truncated pandemic year), and he nearly accomplished that feat despite playing in just 133 games during 2017. Why this becomes a discussion is because Polanco missed substantial time in 2022, and the 2018 season suggests it may not be a fluke.

The Twins truly employ one of the best offensive second baseman in baseball when Polanco is healthy. From 2019-2021 Polanco missed just 24 games. He was horrendous offensively during the Covid season, but still managed a 117 OPS+ combined over that stretch. Blasting a career best 33 homers in 2021 made him nothing short of a lineup pillar, even with team expectations having drastically fallen short.

Minnesota may find themselves struggling to quantify Polanco’s production last season given the offensive downturn across the league as a whole. We know again that Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball used multiple different gameballs, and the league saw a substantial drop in OPS across the board. While his slugging percentage fell, Polanco’s .346 OBP checked in as his second-best mark, ranking only behind the .356 he put up in 2019. From a production standpoint, his presence in the lineup remained constant.

The problem for Polanco, and the Twins, was the amount of time he was unavailable. Missing more than 35% of the games, Baldelli’s lineups were constantly without their starting second basemen, and fill-in Luis Arraez was already being asked to pull double-duty at first base. If Polanco’s injury history, namely his ankle, winds up being a nagging issue, the Twins could be in for a world of hurt.

Despite being a batting champion and dearly beloved by Twins fans, it’s more than clear Arraez’s knees aren’t meant for every day action. Nick Gordon has shown to be a solid utility defender, but isn’t someone you want playing every day. Maybe Polanco gives way to a prospect like Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, or Edouard Julien if he misses time, but it’s safe to assume that both the team and the starter would like to see 2024 vest.

We have seen Polanco remain healthy over extended periods of time previously, and he’ll need to play in something like 135 games to trigger the next phase of his contract. Getting him there should be something new athletic trainer Nick Paparesta is focused on through his offseason program, and the Twins would have no problem paying a guy posting 3 or 4 fWAR upwards of $10 million an offseason from now.

View full article

[Twodogs]

With those vesting options and guys like Julien, Martin, and Lee knocking at the door.  Seems like Polanco should be considered trade bait towards the deadline.  I mean seems kinda similar to the corner OF situation with 2B?

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I have to apologize Ted but I am not understanding what "decision" Polanco needs to make here.  You said that he needs 550 plate appearances for the next phase of his contract to trigger.  How is that a decision?  He either makes that threshold and it triggers or he does not and it does not trigger.

Now, here is where my novice thinking comes in.  If he does NOT trigger the next phase, what happens?  Is he a FA?  Does he automatically get released?  Wouldn't the Twins still have control of the decision to keep him or not?  Please help clarify for me.  Thanks.

[South Dakota Tom]

I believe it is a team option either way - it "locks in" if he gets 550 ABs.

[Nashvilletwin]

34 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

With those vesting options and guys like Julien, Martin, and Lee knocking at the door.  Seems like Polanco should be considered trade bait towards the deadline.  I mean seems kinda similar to the corner OF situation with 2B?

Couldn’t agree more Twodogs.  If the Twins are either a) not in contention or b) not deluding themselves into thinking they are in contention, Jorge would likely be on the move. If he’s playing well and there is control for another season, he might bring back a quality piece for the next window.

The chances are good that the base of the last core - Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, and even Gardner - are all gone by the end of June.  Only Buxton would be left.  IMHO, that’s ok - time to move on to the next young core.

 

 

[mnfireman]

'24 is a vesting option, '25 is a team option. 

Not sure what the 2018 comment meant, but his missed time that year was for a PED suspension.

[beckmt]

Polonce probably has one of the biggest trade values of the Twins if healthy.  That is a big if.  My guess is the Twins wait until late in training camp to see how he looks, and maybe if he looks good, Twins get an offer they can't refuse as they have 2 - 3 players coming up that will probably play 2B, and Arraez can fill in with Gordon until they arrive. I do not have the fear of a weaker defensive infield with the current Twins pitching, most of them are FB and strikeout types. 

[rv78]

Not sure why the remark was made that Nick Gordon is the type of player you dont want to play everyday. He only hit .272 in 2022 which was 4th best among all of the Twins to get significant at bats. His 50 RBI's was only 1 behind the great Byron Buxton who can't stay on the field. I'm just guessing here but I suspect outfielders like Joey Gallo and his .160 BA and Max Kepler and his .227 BA will get precedent over Nick Gordon. It's the Twins way. (This organization will continue to bleed mediocrity as long as they keep placing value on washed up veterans ahead of the players that actually produce). For Polanco, I'm sure if it was "his decision" he would remain healthy. And if that happens I suspect he'll return to his very productive self. The real question is.... will he get his 550 PA or will he get babied and miss out due to Rocco's no questions, no excuses, no way I'm changing it, because I don't know how, schedule of rest days?

[mikelink45]

I think Polanco has peaked and it is a good time to include him with Kepler (Gallo), and Larnach and sent them to Miami which needs bats for one of their good arms!  At this point Polanco's value is in what he can bring back to the team. 

[Doctor Gast]

Polanco's ankles are a non issue as long as he's kept away from SS. Polanco isn't a machine but management treats him that way because of his great switch hitting capability. He gets hurt like anyone else but they don't give him his needed rest. Last year he hurt his knee sliding but they never gave him anytime off & played him to the ground. Until couldn't take the field anymore & he had to miss the rest of the season. No matter how crucial he is to the team, he needs appropriate time to heal from any injury. The time missed isn't  a reflection of his personal health but neglect from management. Hopefully Paparesta can right the the ship. He should play the amount of time to be healthy w/o any manipulations of time.

Any team would love to have Polanco on their team but right now we can't trade him. Right now we have 0 quality INF depth. Arraez & Gordon are not MLB caliber 2B. There's some doubt if Julien  will be able to man 2B. When Lewis comes back, Farmer can sub some 3B but how good could  he really be at 2B?

No we shouldn't even ponder to trade Polanco but we should ponder on how to increase our devastating lack of quality INF quality depth. Lee, Martin & maybe Julien can help out at 2B but that time is far from now.

[MMMordabito]

Making the Major League Baseball All-Star Game as a starter at shortstop is a failure at shortstop?

Tough game.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Couldn’t agree more Twodogs.  If the Twins are either a) not in contention or b) not deluding themselves into thinking they are in contention, Jorge would likely be on the move. If he’s playing well and there is control for another season, he might bring back a quality piece for the next window.

The chances are good that the base of the last core - Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Sano, and even Gardner - are all gone by the end of June.  Only Buxton would be left.  IMHO, that’s ok - time to move on to the next young core.

 

 

Gardner ? Billy Gardner ? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Making the Major League Baseball All-Star Game as a starter at shortstop is a failure at shortstop?

Tough game.

I thought that same thing MMM.

[Battle ur tail off]

Not sure you can trade him right now and if you do, it better bring back pitching. He is one of, if not the Twins best player.

Go ahead and trade a productive hitter that plays a good 2nd base that is under team control for cheap for a player in A ball. 

I mean if the team tanks then I guess explore it. But I don't like giving up a guy in his prime that is being paid peanuts for what he should be making unless he brings back some real bacon. 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Gardner ? Billy Gardner ? 

Garver, Mitch Garver - lol. Thanks. 

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Not sure why the remark was made that Nick Gordon is the type of player you dont want to play everyday. He only hit .272 in 2022 which was 4th best among all of the Twins to get significant at bats. His 50 RBI's was only 1 behind the great Byron Buxton who can't stay on the field. I'm just guessing here but I suspect outfielders like Joey Gallo and his .160 BA and Max Kepler and his .227 BA will get precedent over Nick Gordon. It's the Twins way. (This organization will continue to bleed mediocrity as long as they keep placing value on washed up veterans ahead of the players that actually produce). For Polanco, I'm sure if it was "his decision" he would remain healthy. And if that happens I suspect he'll return to his very productive self. The real question is.... will he get his 550 PA or will he get babied and miss out due to Rocco's no questions, no excuses, no way I'm changing it, because I don't know how, schedule of rest days?

No idea why we keep undervaluing Gordon. Not only is he producing, but he plays with great heart and energy. Also, there is no reason tho think he has peaked. At the moment he should be an everyday player on this ball club. Let’s see where he gets to - we have a pretty good idea who Gallo is….

[tarheeltwinsfan]

52 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Not sure you can trade him right now and if you do, it better bring back pitching. He is one of, if not the Twins best player.

Go ahead and trade a productive hitter that plays a good 2nd base that is under team control for cheap for a player in A ball. 

I mean if the team tanks then I guess explore it. But I don't like giving up a guy in his prime that is being paid peanuts for what he should be making unless he brings back some real bacon. 

 

Like Chase Petty ?

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Although he is a failed shortstop

The Twins asked him to play SS for 4 years. The Twins made the playoffs in 3 of the 4 years that he played SS.

This is not failure. That is a player that helped his team win at SS. 

I understand that they want him to play 2B now. Fine.. I understand that there may be better fielding SS's to choose from. Fine. However... he wasn't a failure. 

[bloggymcbloggerson]

i don't see how it's his decision?

[gman]

With the kind of player Polanco has been, I think any team would be more than happy to move that contract forward for 24 & 25.  He has been the best overall player of the group that came up in 2014-16. I think he could be moved to first base in the future, but his bat can play in the middle of the lineup. I wouldn't even consider trading him for only a lottery player.

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Polanco's ankles are a non issue as long as he's kept away from SS. Polanco isn't a machine but management treats him that way because of his great switch hitting capability. He gets hurt like anyone else but they don't give him his needed rest. Last year he hurt his knee sliding but they never gave him anytime off & played him to the ground. Until couldn't take the field anymore & he had to miss the rest of the season. No matter how crucial he is to the team, he needs appropriate time to heal from any injury. The time missed isn't  a reflection of his personal health but neglect from management. Hopefully Paparesta can right the the ship. He should play the amount of time to be healthy w/o any manipulations of time.

Any team would love to have Polanco on their team but right now we can't trade him. Right now we have 0 quality INF depth. Arraez & Gordon are not MLB caliber 2B. There's some doubt if Julien  will be able to man 2B. When Lewis comes back, Farmer can sub some 3B but how good could  he really be at 2B?

No we shouldn't even ponder to trade Polanco but we should ponder on how to increase our devastating lack of quality INF quality depth. Lee, Martin & maybe Julien can help out at 2B but that time is far from now.

How true this was , I remember you repeatedly asked why Polanco was never being rested ... 

Maybe with a new trainer they will change their ways ...

Maybe ...

[Mike Sixel]

Who suggested trading him for a lottery ticket or A ball player? Sometimes I wonder where people come up with these arguments that don't exist.

He's a very good player. If he were made available, the Twins could get plenty. But they aren't dealing him unless they are out of it at the deadline and Martin or Julien or Gordon is ready. I don't get the Gordon comment..... All he's done is improve the last two years, which has come with health and opportunity. 

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 we have a pretty good idea who Gallo is….

The Sultan of Swing and a Miss........

[Dave The Dastardly]

Amazing how some are quick to sell short the players (i.e. Gordon, Arraez, Polanco) who most often come through on the field and then offer trading them in return for the mythical "Ace". As if there's any pitcher out there with "Ace" status dying to sign with the Twins. No way you get into the Hall throwing 4 innings a night. So forget the Ace dream. The only way an Ace is going to sign with the Twins is if they're anticipating surgery.

Besides, you don't "build" a contending team by trading your better players. You build around them.

[Beast]

9 hours ago, rv78 said:

Not sure why the remark was made that Nick Gordon is the type of player you dont want to play everyday. He only hit .272 in 2022 which was 4th best among all of the Twins to get significant at bats. His 50 RBI's was only 1 behind the great Byron Buxton who can't stay on the field. I'm just guessing here but I suspect outfielders like Joey Gallo and his .160 BA and Max Kepler and his .227 BA will get precedent over Nick Gordon. It's the Twins way. (This organization will continue to bleed mediocrity as long as they keep placing value on washed up veterans ahead of the players that actually produce). For Polanco, I'm sure if it was "his decision" he would remain healthy. And if that happens I suspect he'll return to his very productive self. The real question is.... will he get his 550 PA or will he get babied and miss out due to Rocco's no questions, no excuses, no way I'm changing it, because I don't know how, schedule of rest days?

Because Gordon’s not that good.  Hes not undervalued by Twins fans, he’s become ridiculously overvalued by many.  He’s a fine bench guy.  Not a guy you want batting in the heart of the lineup and playing everyday LF (like last year…..when we were an awful team).

He’s not especially great defensively.  He doesn’t hit for all that much power.  He doesn’t get on base all that much.  Minor league track record is very uninspiring.  An empty .270 BA and 50 RBI being your marquee season isn’t anything to write home about.  He’s a JAG (just a guy).  Nothing there to indicate any sort of star potential.

He had a fine year….for a bench guy.  We probably just saw his ceiling.

Buxton, Gallo, and Kepler have track records of success in the MLB (although spotty).  Gordon hasn’t been particularly good at any point of his professional career at any level.  If I have my pick between the 4 players, Nick Gordon is the last selected.

I do agree with your frustration with this team’s roster construction.  But, Nick Gordon isn’t the answer to anything.  Great kid, brings energy, all that, but just not that good.

[Trov]

I have always liked Polanco.  When healthy he has shown he is a great hitter.  He is starting to get out of his prime, and injuries have been hitting him over his past few seasons.  Even when he plays sometimes we learn he is on weak ankles, affecting his offense.  

If he can stay healthy, and with the anti shift rules hopefully he can have a good bounce back year and either be trade option, or we will feel better about trading another middle infielder for something.  People forget that teams played the 4 OF shift on him this past year.  Without being able to do that should help him bounce back on offense too. 

[MarcF]

The Twins 'may decide' to deal Kepler this off-season? If anyone wanted him, he would have been gone long ago. The guy can't hit. He may be a great fielder, but that doesn't make him a valuable player taking a roster spot. 

[Otaknam]

Polanco is not a failed shortstop. He’s just not a plus defender there, is  better at second, but can fill in at shortstop for short periods if necessary. That’s not the same as he can’t play there because he is a failure. That said, he would be a solid trade chip if he is having a good season in 2023 and the team isn’t in the mix for the playoffs. With Julian and Arraez available and hopefully AK able to play first base, Polanco could be moved. 

[Battle ur tail off]

On 1/4/2023 at 1:29 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Like Chase Petty ?

Like, I don't want to move Polanco. He is signed for 3 more years. If the Twins plan on competing with this next core of players, there is no reason he can't be a part of it. 

If they flat out tank this year and looks as if none of the pitching we have in the pipeline is going to pan out, then explore it. But I don't move him until it is clear we will have to rebuild for a few seasons in a row. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/4/2023 at 12:11 PM, rv78 said:

Not sure why the remark was made that Nick Gordon is the type of player you dont want to play everyday. He only hit .272 in 2022 which was 4th best among all of the Twins to get significant at bats. His 50 RBI's was only 1 behind the great Byron Buxton who can't stay on the field. I'm just guessing here but I suspect outfielders like Joey Gallo and his .160 BA and Max Kepler and his .227 BA will get precedent over Nick Gordon. It's the Twins way. (This organization will continue to bleed mediocrity as long as they keep placing value on washed up veterans ahead of the players that actually produce). For Polanco, I'm sure if it was "his decision" he would remain healthy. And if that happens I suspect he'll return to his very productive self. The real question is.... will he get his 550 PA or will he get babied and miss out due to Rocco's no questions, no excuses, no way I'm changing it, because I don't know how, schedule of rest days?

Agreed - I’ve stated that there is no logic behind Nick Gordon not being our everyday LF. He can be part of the platoon/rest help for Polanco (15 games or so) as well as the primary platoon/rest for Buxton (35 games or so). If he rests 20 games, that leaves 92 games in LF.

Assuming Kepler is gone!

Polanco is solid at 2nd. His ‘22 season was a down year from a guy who averages 20 plus HR’s and hits .270. If he can get back to “average Jorge” everyone will be happy. Gordon can give us 15 games at 2nd & Arraez another 15 games. If we get another 5-10 games from some youth guy (Lewis - Lee?) in August/September, Polanco should have plenty of rest.

Tangent thoughts on rest:

Arraez at 2B for 15 games - at 1B for 80 games - at 3B for 10 games (no other options) - at DH for 25 games…….he should be well rested at least w/o unforeseen stress.

Kirilof at 1B for 65 games……LF maybe 20 games to maintain competency………DH 25 games.

Larnach in LF for 15 games to maintain competency……….primary DH for 50 games……25 games in RF.

Garlick (or Andrew McCutchen preferably) in LF for 40 games. DH for 20 games.

Buxton in CF 100 games……….DH for 25 games. Gotta stay healthy! …….If he can’t play 100 games in CF, we need to seriously consider moving him to LF in ‘24 & DH him 60 games/year going forward to protect his legs.

Gallo plays RF most of the time unless he washes out due to no production. Walner (McCutchen??) waiting in the wings. Gallo in RF for 85 games and in CF for 25 games.

Vazquez 10 games at DH………Everyday Catcher for 110 games………Jeffers for 50 games at Catcher & 5 games at DH.

Farmer at SS for 145 games & we’re scrambling to get him a day off in the first half of the year!! Unresolved, unless we let Gordon play 10 less games in LF and roll with him at SS reserve in 1st half for 10 games. Will need Lewis or Lee for 2nd half to spell Miranda & Farmer during the dog days.

Miranda at 3B for 135 games and maybe an additional handful at DH &/or 1B?

Generally, a path through the year here. Walner is odd man out for playing time to start the year. As Lee or Lewis becomes available mid-summer Walner (or worst performing LH bat) will get sent down.

 

Andrew McCutchen instead of, or as another option along side of, Garlick could be a really nice signing!