Five Minnesota Twins That Developed Most in 2022

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are looking at 2023 needing to put up a winning season for the first time since 2021. A significant portion of that being a possibility rests on the shoulders of the guys currently within the organization. Given the graduations from Minnesota’s farm system, Derek Falvey needs to see youth carry the next wave of competitiveness.

 

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Rocco Baldelli’s team held onto a division lead for a substantial portion of the 2022 season. That continued to be the reality despite mounting injuries and a roster that needed more done during the offseason. Ultimately it led to a September of non-competitive baseball, and a stretch run that carried zero playoff implications.

In that, the silver lining was certainly the development of players that should be looked at as cornerstones in the year ahead. Here is a look at a group that could be considered the top five.

Nick Gordon
After being thrust into more than 70 games during the 2021 season, it was clear that Nick Gordon had some utility for the Twins. He didn’t do enough to show what exactly that utility was. He played everywhere, but was below average as a hitter, and while he was good on the base paths it was difficult for him to get there. Fast forward a year and Gordon looks the part of a late-blooming asset. He was particularly valuable in the outfield as a replacement, and his 113 OPS+ was a substantial step forward. He made plenty of blunders, both defensively and on the base paths, that should question how tuned in he is while between the lines, but there’s certainly a 26-man roster asset here.

Jose Miranda
No one put up a better year in the minors, especially for the Twins, than Jose Miranda did during 2021. His .973 OPS didn’t earn him a spot on the Opening Day roster with veterans ahead of him, but it didn’t take long before he made his debut. In 125 games, Miranda posted a 116 OPS+ and blasted 15 homers. He certainly struggled a bit down the stretch as the opposition made changes to combat his abilities, but that is something he can grow into as he continues to develop. Miranda won’t be 25 until the summer and he should have more positional stability in the upcoming season. Playing less first base would be good for him, and that probably says a good deal about the production of Alex Kirilloff and Joey Gallo as well.

Royce Lewis
Maybe this is a surprise position for a guy who saw such limited action during the season as a whole, but it’s impossible to overlook how much of an impact was made. Lewis had gone two full years without playing an actual game thanks to the pandemic and an injury. He then debuted at Triple-A and posted a .940 OPS forcing his way into big-league action. Carlos Correa going down with an injury opened a spot, and then Lewis’ continued production allowed a position change to be another way he got onto the field. An unfortunate ACL injury ended his season a second year in a row, but it hasn’t stopped the belief in him from the organization. Since he was drafted there has been no reason to doubt him, and once again, he proved that.

Griffin Jax
For a guy that was a failed starter a season ago, the organization and Jax continued to work together as they have throughout his career. From finding a way to get him action while still dealing with military eligibility, to transitioning towards a bullpen role, it’s always been a work in progress for Jax. His 3.36 ERA was bolstered by a 3.17 FIP and a K/9 that jumped substantially to 9.7 K/9. His velocity saw an uptick, and he emerged as a late-inning option for a bullpen that needed more arms to trend that way.

Jhoan Duran
If Jax was a guy that emerged as a late-inning option, Duran was the guy that emerged as the late-inning option. A former starting pitching prospect that threw just 16 innings since 2019, he forced his way onto the Opening Day roster. Baldelli probably saw Duran as a godsend given how poor the bullpen was from the get go. Emilio Pagan flopped out of the gate, and Tyler Duffey was DFA worthy well before he ultimately was given that pink slip. Duran put up a ridiculous 1.86 ERA with an 11.8 K/9 and re-wrote the Twins record books when it comes to velocity readings.

There isn’t a single player in this group that won’t be counted on by the Twins from the get go in 2023. Baldelli has had a few changes to his projected roster from a season ago, and while the front office still has work to do, there’s no denying that 20% of the roster is represented here (once Lewis is healthy), and each of them will be expected to take another step forward.

 

 

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[JD-TWINS]

Have only seen a couple commenters put Gordon in LF as the everyday starter for ‘23. After last season, can’t imagine that not being the case. He can still play 20 games at second to help spell Polanco & another 30 games in CF to help get Buxton through the season. That leaves him 95 games in LF unless there’s some significant regression……..That leaves 40 - 50 starts for Larnach…..20 or so starts for Garlick in LF.

Jax & Duran are Pen anchors! I’d like to see López moved along with Kepler and a prospect to land a depth starter. Sign Fulmer or Hand or maybe Chafin to bolster Pen.

Concerned about expecting too much from a guy coming off his 2nd ACL & another 10-12 months away from the live games. Farmer will suffice at SS & if Lewis can contribute in late ‘23 that’s great.

Miranda playing average defense at 3rd with 20 dingers & .265 average and we should all be ecstatic. Has the basis of a “professional hitter.” Would be nice to get somebody behind him for a little protection in the line-up! (not Kepler - Celestino - etc.)

An aside, Polanco, and his production this year seems to be a big key for our offense. With Correa & Kepler gone we need a Vet to come through and post numbers that meet expectations.

Line-up:

Arraez1B - BuxtonCF - LarnachDH - Miranda3B - Polanco2B - VazquezC - GordonLF - FarmerSS - GalloRF

Kirilof-Garlick-Jeffers-Walner ……..Kirilof, Gordon & Arraez serve as Infield depth with a number of guys able to DH.

[mike8791]

Can't quarrel with your list, Ted, but with one big cautionary note on Jax.  Before he can be designated a late pen go-to-arm, he must make significant strides on probably the most significant stat for any reliever - Inherited Runs Scored(IRS).  His 2022 rate of 42% was a tic below Duffy's at 44%, and higher than the much-lamented Pagan at 38%.  Compare these to Thielbar(14%) and Duran at 22%.  

Which is why this FO needs to correct their gross negligence of last offseason by signing at least two back end relievers from a fairly flush FA stockpile still remaining.  As things stand now, this is still an average pen at best on a team much too dependent on heavy usage of relievers in every game.  But that's another story altogether!

[HerbieFan]

Was really happy for Gordon to see the improvement in 2022.  Feel he definitely has a role....now, about all of those popups and flyballs.....

[LA VIkes Fan]

I like and agree with the list. I'm one of the posters that has said that Gordon should be penciled in as an every day LF or at least in a platoon with a RH hitter. Right now that's Garlick but I still hold out hope we can find somebody better, even Trey Mancini. 

Lately though, I've come around to the idea that we should give Gordon a real chance to show us whether he can be a MLB Shortstop. If 2022 was a fair indication of how he can hit, he would be a huge asset as a Shortstop if he can field the position at an average or better level. We have Spring Training and the first half of the 2023 season to find out if he can field at that level. Farmer was signed as a utility player, not as an everyday shortstop. I would love to see them play Gordon at Shortstop in the Spring Training and unless he is terrible, I'd love to see them play him at SS at least in a platoon with Farmer so he gets 4 games a week there. Let's find out if Gordon can play the position and give ourselves as many alternatives as possible when Lewis comes back. 

[Doctor Gast]

Duran was our most pleasant surprise, So was Lewis he was great until his MLB CF debut. Miranda had a chance to redeem himself after Lewis got hurt, & did a bang up job. Jax did a fine job. Gordon was our most dependable OFer & has established himself very valuable to the Twins.

The 1st part of the season especially late April. May & 1st week in June Celestino was with Buxton & Arraez as our best hitters plus a very good CFer, he had a big jump from last year. The last half he couldn't sustain it but I expect Celestino better sustain those offensive #s this coming season. Having Celestino back up Buxton with Gordon we absolutely don't need Gallo in CF. Gordon has established himself in the OF, keep him out of the INF.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article Ted.

[DocBauer]

I can't argue with this list at all, nor quibble with Lewis being on it, even though injury derailed his season.

GORDON: I was defending him before 2021 started and some marked him as an easy cut from the 40 man. The FO has stuck by him since they arrived as they could see his potential. I'm so gratified that patience won out for the kid. He wasn't bad in 2021 and, as per his previous MO, he adapted and grew in his 2nd ML season. I suppose some regression is possible, but I doubt it. He's very talented, works hard, loves the game, and brings a spark. And again, he's shown the ability to learn and grow at every level previously. He's got some pop/power, despite his frame, that seems to come with quick twitch reactions and an equally quick swing when he sees a pitch he likes/recognizes. I think this bodes well for his development. But agree with HerbieFan I'd like to see a few more line drives where his speed may play better. He's also got some baserunning and defensive rough edges to smooth over, but as long as he doesn't fall in love with trying to become a power hitter, I Ike his all around game and contributions.

I disagree with him being the primary LF, however. A healthy Larnach...and there are others...are just too good of prospects with much more power and OPS potential. He's best used on a regular fill in basis as a super utility. And the same for SS. Right now, good or bad, the temp job belongs to Farmer. Gordon has played a lot of SS in the minors and a lot of SS during ST for the Twins. And while I don't feel he's poor at the position, he's never stood out or seemed to make any kind of defensive jump there. I DO LIKE the idea of him still working there and getting a few starts against tough RH pitching to rest Farmer, however. 

MIRANDA: 3B is his natural position. I think he will be at least OK there, and hard work will make him better. I think the bat is legitimate, but allow he will slump here and there as he grows as a ML hitter. It's only natural. Gut feeling has Lee eventually being even better defensively with a high quality bat that will move Miranda to a DAILY player who will play BOTH infield corners as well as DH. The Twins infield could be DANGEROUS in the next year or so, especially if Kirilloff can get right and stay right, and Miranda is going to be part of that. 

LEWIS: Really, there's not much to say about him that we don't all already know. He just has to get healthy and stay that way. Will he be ready July 1st? August 1st? I don't even care. I also don't expect...and really don't care...if he ever turns out to be a GG caliber SS. He's got all the tools to become at least very good! With his other tools, isn't that all we really and truly care about at the end of the day?

JAX: Pleasantly surprised by his first year transformation to the pen. He was good. Experience should make him better. Yes, he could be better in regard to inherited runners. That's one of many stats that can be volatile. But experience should help him in that regard.

DURAN: I never expected him to be this good this fast. But his STUFF, and his demeanor made this move an incredibly smart one. I know it's tantalizing to think of him as a potential SP. But some guys, and some arms, just aren't built for that, for whatever reason. I think of Smoltz and the Twins own Aguillera who were solid SP, but were special in the pen. I think Duran has found his spot. And he's going to have a great career and make a lot of $ in that career.

 

[DocBauer]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Duran was our most pleasant surprise, So was Lewis he was great until his MLB CF debut. Miranda had a chance to redeem himself after Lewis got hurt, & did a bang up job. Jax did a fine job. Gordon was our most dependable OFer & has established himself very valuable to the Twins.

The 1st part of the season especially late April. May & 1st week in June Celestino was with Buxton & Arraez as our best hitters plus a very good CFer, he had a big jump from last year. The last half he couldn't sustain it but I expect Celestino better sustain those offensive #s this coming season. Having Celestino back up Buxton with Gordon we absolutely don't need Gallo in CF. Gordon has established himself in the OF, keep him out of the INF.

I became a Celestino believer after his 2019 season, mostly at A+, IIRC. I was really looking forward to seeing what he would do at AA in 2020 before the milb season was canceled. Frankly, I was disappointed when injuries decimated the Twins so much he had to be called up in 2021, because he was pushed and just wasn't ready. But he looked GOOD at AAA. I was also very disappointed when the Twins didn't add a quality RH OF for 2022 and Celestino was pushed yet again to the ML level. I just thought they did him a great disservice. And after a hot start with a completely unsustainable BABIP, it became obvious he wasn't prepared yet.

I have no doubt he could be an excellent reserve OF who can do a few different things offensively and be a fine glove. Is he starting caliber for the Twins, or someone else? Hmmm...maybe. He's got a nice mix of solid bat with pop and speed and potentially great defense, but he's basically been pushed to the ML level before he was ready. For his sake...and the Twins especially...it's why I've pushed so hard for a solid veteran RH OF to be added last year, and again this season. I have no doubt Celestino has learned a lot with the Twins, but he and the organization would be much better off adding that veteran bat to allow him to work on his bat and overall game at St Paul to begin 2023, and be much more ready the next time his name is called.

To me, IMO, it's so obvious that I keep screaming on my soapbox as to what the smart move is. And it's damn frustrating the FO doesn't see it.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I became a Celestino believer after his 2019 season, mostly at A+, IIRC. I was really looking forward to seeing what he would do at AA in 2020 before the milb season was canceled. Frankly, I was disappointed when injuries decimated the Twins so much he had to be called up in 2021, because he was pushed and just wasn't ready. But he looked GOOD at AAA. I was also very disappointed when the Twins didn't add a quality RH OF for 2022 and Celestino was pushed yet again to the ML level. I just thought they did him a great disservice. And after a hot start with a completely unsustainable BABIP, it became obvious he wasn't prepared yet.

I have no doubt he could be an excellent reserve OF who can do a few different things offensively and be a fine glove. Is he starting caliber for the Twins, or someone else? Hmmm...maybe. He's got a nice mix of solid bat with pop and speed and potentially great defense, but he's basically been pushed to the ML level before he was ready. For his sake...and the Twins especially...it's why I've pushed so hard for a solid veteran RH OF to be added last year, and again this season. I have no doubt Celestino has learned a lot with the Twins, but he and the organization would be much better off adding that veteran bat to allow him to work on his bat and overall game at St Paul to begin 2023, and be much more ready the next time his name is called.

To me, IMO, it's so obvious that I keep screaming on my soapbox as to what the smart move is. And it's damn frustrating the FO doesn't see it.

We are together on this analysis, Doc. Because he dropped off because he was pushed, his trade value is very low. We couldn't get back what his worth & potential is to us. We absolutely need a true CF RH bat to spell Buxton, not an above average corner OF. Again I see Celestino take another good step.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I can't argue with this list at all, nor quibble with Lewis being on it, even though injury derailed his season.

GORDON: I was defending him before 2021 started and some marked him as an easy cut from the 40 man. The FO has stuck by him since they arrived as they could see his potential. I'm so gratified that patience won out for the kid. He wasn't bad in 2021 and, as per his previous MO, he adapted and grew in his 2nd ML season. I suppose some regression is possible, but I doubt it. He's very talented, works hard, loves the game, and brings a spark. And again, he's shown the ability to learn and grow at every level previously. He's got some pop/power, despite his frame, that seems to come with quick twitch reactions and an equally quick swing when he sees a pitch he likes/recognizes. I think this bodes well for his development. But agree with HerbieFan I'd like to see a few more line drives where his speed may play better. He's also got some baserunning and defensive rough edges to smooth over, but as long as he doesn't fall in love with trying to become a power hitter, I Ike his all around game and contributions.

I disagree with him being the primary LF, however. A healthy Larnach...and there are others...are just too good of prospects with much more power and OPS potential. He's best used on a regular fill in basis as a super utility. And the same for SS. Right now, good or bad, the temp job belongs to Farmer. Gordon has played a lot of SS in the minors and a lot of SS during ST for the Twins. And while I don't feel he's poor at the position, he's never stood out or seemed to make any kind of defensive jump there. I DO LIKE the idea of him still working there and getting a few starts against tough RH pitching to rest Farmer, however. 

MIRANDA: 3B is his natural position. I think he will be at least OK there, and hard work will make him better. I think the bat is legitimate, but allow he will slump here and there as he grows as a ML hitter. It's only natural. Gut feeling has Lee eventually being even better defensively with a high quality bat that will move Miranda to a DAILY player who will play BOTH infield corners as well as DH. The Twins infield could be DANGEROUS in the next year or so, especially if Kirilloff can get right and stay right, and Miranda is going to be part of that. 

LEWIS: Really, there's not much to say about him that we don't all already know. He just has to get healthy and stay that way. Will he be ready July 1st? August 1st? I don't even care. I also don't expect...and really don't care...if he ever turns out to be a GG caliber SS. He's got all the tools to become at least very good! With his other tools, isn't that all we really and truly care about at the end of the day?

JAX: Pleasantly surprised by his first year transformation to the pen. He was good. Experience should make him better. Yes, he could be better in regard to inherited runners. That's one of many stats that can be volatile. But experience should help him in that regard.

DURAN: I never expected him to be this good this fast. But his STUFF, and his demeanor made this move an incredibly smart one. I know it's tantalizing to think of him as a potential SP. But some guys, and some arms, just aren't built for that, for whatever reason. I think of Smoltz and the Twins own Aguillera who were solid SP, but were special in the pen. I think Duran has found his spot. And he's going to have a great career and make a lot of $ in that career.

 

All good…. don’t want to detract because I saw Aguilera go from 4th-5th starter for the Mets to lockdown closer for TWINS. However, John Smoltz was special as a starter that had success in the Pen, while being innings protected, for 2-3 years is my recollection.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We are together on this analysis, Doc. Because he dropped off because he was pushed, his trade value is very low. We couldn't get back what his worth & potential is to us. We absolutely need a true CF RH bat to spell Buxton, not an above average corner OF. Again I see Celestino take another good step.

Don’t see room for Celestino on the roster in ‘23. His almost certainty to put the ball in play from the right 1/3 of the field to RF foul line is an issue. That said, his ability to provide power seems suspect going forward.

If he needs more development, it gives Gordon another year to develop further as back-up to Buxton in CF. Assuming others develop to expectations, Larnach - Kirilof - Gordon - Walner - Buxton taking up our 5 outfield spots going forward in ‘24, it doesn’t seem there is a spot for Celestino in our plans forward.m.

Obviously, trades of one of the LH guys could change things. This year, if healthy, he seems blocked by Garlick as well.

[KirbyDome89]

23 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I like and agree with the list. I'm one of the posters that has said that Gordon should be penciled in as an every day LF or at least in a platoon with a RH hitter. Right now that's Garlick but I still hold out hope we can find somebody better, even Trey Mancini. 

Lately though, I've come around to the idea that we should give Gordon a real chance to show us whether he can be a MLB Shortstop. If 2022 was a fair indication of how he can hit, he would be a huge asset as a Shortstop if he can field the position at an average or better level. We have Spring Training and the first half of the 2023 season to find out if he can field at that level. Farmer was signed as a utility player, not as an everyday shortstop. I would love to see them play Gordon at Shortstop in the Spring Training and unless he is terrible, I'd love to see them play him at SS at least in a platoon with Farmer so he gets 4 games a week there. Let's find out if Gordon can play the position and give ourselves as many alternatives as possible when Lewis comes back. 

Zero chance Gordon is an every day OFer. What are you doing with Larnach, or even Kepler, if you're going to pencil Gordon in out there? 

All those meaningless games to end 2021 were a chance for Gordon to play SS. Right or wrong, the Twins opted not to go that route, it's clear they don't view him as capable of handling the position. If you have to platoon a guy at SS, he isn't a SS. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Zero chance Gordon is an every day OFer. What are you doing with Larnach, or even Kepler, if you're going to pencil Gordon in out there? 

All those meaningless games to end 2021 were a chance for Gordon to play SS. Right or wrong, the Twins opted not to go that route, it's clear they don't view him as capable of handling the position. If you have to platoon a guy at SS, he isn't a SS. 

Kepler will be traded at some point before March. Could not have signed Gallo with the intent of keeping Kepler.

Larnach plays LF when Gordon is in Center - maybe 35 games. Larnach can play left when Gordon is forced into playing 2B when Polanco is inevitably unable to play due to his bad knees - maybe 20 games. Larnach as DH 70 games.

I agree that Gordon has been ruled out of SS by the organization but if he’s our 3rd or 4th best returning batter from ‘22 he needs to play! That makes him our LF around 100 starts.

[jimmyc]

EVERY relief pitcher is a failed starter.  Please retire that old trope.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kepler will be traded at some point before March. Could not have signed Gallo with the intent of keeping Kepler.

Larnach plays LF when Gordon is in Center - maybe 35 games. Larnach can play left when Gordon is forced into playing 2B when Polanco is inevitably unable to play due to his bad knees - maybe 20 games. Larnach as DH 70 games.

I agree that Gordon has been ruled out of SS by the organization but if he’s our 3rd or 4th best returning batter from ‘22 he needs to play! That makes him our LF around 100 starts.

If the Twins view Gallo as a better upside version of Gordon from the left side of the plate (a very real possibility) with better defensive prowess in CF, i.e. Buxton insurance, they definitely could make a case for keeping Kepler. I'm not saying it's a move I love, but I don't think Kepler is a lock to be traded. I also doubt the Twins want to lock Larnach (or anybody really) into the DH role for nearly half the season.