What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?

[Kipp35]

On 12/28/2022 at 7:17 PM, Mike Sixel said:

The Twins are better off with Gallo and a prospect, than with Kepler and 2.5 million they won't spend.

Sounds like an opinion.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

Sounds like an opinion.

It is. And, you disagree? Why?

[Kipp35]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It is. And, you disagree? Why?

Don't see the purpose of spending the $2.5, just because we wouldn't otherwise. Kepler is more athletic than Gallo, and if stats say he [Gallo] will benefit from the shift ban, than so too will Kepler. I don't see Gallo being any upgrade, let alone one significant enough to warrant $11mm investment on a 'hope' that numbers will return. 

I get that he is better defensively than Sano, who struck out at a similar rate; but we HAD to get rid of him for his lack of plate discipline. If we are saying it's the defense, then keep Kepler. He doesn't K as often as Gallo, he is more athletic and will also benefit from no more shifts... that's my opinion.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

Don't see the purpose of spending the $2.5, just because we wouldn't otherwise. Kepler is more athletic than Gallo, and if stats say he [Gallo] will benefit from the shift ban, than so too will Kepler. I don't see Gallo being any upgrade, let alone one significant enough to warrant $11mm investment on a 'hope' that numbers will return. 

I get that he is better defensively than Sano, who struck out at a similar rate; but we HAD to get rid of him for his lack of plate discipline. If we are saying it's the defense, then keep Kepler. He doesn't K as often as Gallo, he is more athletic and will also benefit from no more shifts... that's my opinion.

Gallo and a prospect, or Kepler? I thought that was the discussion. Gallo has more risk than Kepler for sure. But I'd rather have Gallo and a prospect, than Kepler and no additional prospect. YMMV.

[Kipp35]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gallo and a prospect, or Kepler? I thought that was the discussion. Gallo has more risk than Kepler for sure. But I'd rather have Gallo and a prospect, than Kepler and no additional prospect. YMMV.

I would rather keep Kepler and no prospect. Not sold on this FO evaluating "prospects" anyway.

[dex8425]

On 1/3/2023 at 1:06 PM, Kipp35 said:

Don't see the purpose of spending the $2.5, just because we wouldn't otherwise. Kepler is more athletic than Gallo, and if stats say he [Gallo] will benefit from the shift ban, than so too will Kepler. I don't see Gallo being any upgrade, let alone one significant enough to warrant $11mm investment on a 'hope' that numbers will return. 

I get that he is better defensively than Sano, who struck out at a similar rate; but we HAD to get rid of him for his lack of plate discipline. If we are saying it's the defense, then keep Kepler. He doesn't K as often as Gallo, he is more athletic and will also benefit from no more shifts... that's my opinion.

Gallo and Kepler are both athletic and sprint at similar speeds. Kepler has a higher floor, while Gallo has a higher ceiling (4.2 WAR in 2021). I think that's the reasoning. Whether you like the higher floor or higher ceiling is a matter of opinion. I tend to agree with you that I'd rather have the higher floor (Kepler), and I would've spend the 11 million somewhere other than Joey Gallo, but hopefully he proves us both wrong.