What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?

[tony&rodney]

37 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Kepler should play over Gallo but because of the process he won't. Because of the situation FO has put us in we'll probably have to sell Kepler at a loss. Larnach, Kiriloff, Kepler & Polanco trade value is below what it should be & none of them should be traded. Gordon is our most reliable OF & should be kept there, he's not a MLB INFer. 

Arraez trade value won't get any higher than what it is now and position wise will be the least missed. So he's the most obvious to trade, that said I don't believe it will happen.

To answer Ted's question about Kepler's trade worth. I say not enough.

I agree with this. There has been posts and discussion concerning potential trades. Arraez should have some value clearly, but nothing has emerged thus far. The one player that most everyone feels could be in AAA, Gilberto Celestino, may still be needed to cover for Buxton. The situation is complicated, for sure. 

[Kipp35]

His trade value is higher than that of Gallo's. But we felt it important enough to give him $11mm.

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

His trade value is higher than that of Gallo's. But we felt it important enough to give him $11mm.

The Twins are better off with Gallo and a prospect, than with Kepler and 2.5 million they won't spend.

[Richard]

I am all for trading Kep, but why don't we take a chance and see if the shift rules benifits Kepler.  Heck if we keep Kepler in right and let him prove he can hit, wouldn't it make more sense to trade him then?  By keeping him on opening day, Gallo would probably start in LF, with LArnach and Kiriloff fighting for the 4th Of spot which might help both of them.  

[Dr Katz]

Keep Kepler, he will have improved offensive totals this year, and if Max goes to NY he will be an all star. 

[mikelink45]

His value is gained when he is traded in combination with another player.  Alone we do not get anything.  In fact we could trade Gallo and get the same poor return.

[Mark G]

12 hours ago, Dman said:

I go back and forth on Max's trade value.  I mean several teams could have had a Max type player in Gallo for just money and yet the Twins managed to snag Gallo for a one year 11M contract.  Max only costs 2.5M less and you have to give up trade capital as well. To me that says his market value might be lower than I was hoping.

Still Max shows strong underlying numbers in a lot of area's and if the Yankee's did grab him with the short right field porch it could be a difference maker for Max.  Just a few extra HR's that make it over that wall adds to his OBP and Slugging and I bet those numbers start looking much better.

If the Twins do trade Max to the Yankee's they better make it hurt because I have a feeling he could have a monster season in the Bronx.  

I do agree with Mike though the Twins need to find a decent return or they might as well just hang onto Max.  His value could increase by the deadline anyway.  We will see if some team pony's up but it might be a while as teams continue to fill out rosters with FA's and decide what to spend there tradable assets on. Unless the Twins get a deal they deem to good to pass up I would probably hang onto Max.

I agree completely.  Reminds me of a lesson my father taught me long ago when I asked him what a particular thing was worth.  He said:  "that's simple; it is worth whatever someone is willing to pay you for it at the moment you are looking to sell it, and that can change at any time."  

Max is worth whatever another team is willing to offer for him at the time we are willing to trade him.  Sounds simplistic, and maybe even sound like a cop out, but it is true of virtually everything in life we want to buy, sell, or trade.   In baseball, control is valued as much as a players stats at times, so how much someone may be willing to offer may decrease as the amount of control decreases.  It will all depend on how badly we want to move him, and how badly someone else thinks they need him.  

Listen to all offers and only take one if the return is to our benefit.  He is an asset we don't have to sell, but maybe one that someone else needs to buy.  

[Karbo]

16 hours ago, Wilco1 said:

I don’t understand the Joey Gallo pick up at all. In my opinion I believe Max Kepler is going to have one of his best years. With the new rules intact and some changes with his swing, I believe we’ll see the best of Max this year. with all the outfielders that we have you would’ve thought the twins would’ve spent the money they invested in Gallo on pitching. Oh and by the way it’s still not too late to make another offer on Mr. Korea!

IMO Max could see some more SB this season, if he gets to try that is. 

[Karbo]

15 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agreed on Gordon! To me, he’s our opening day LF. Also, agreed that we have too many OF & we didn’t sign Gallo to trade him.

Maybe we signed Gallo to play left and expect Gordon to play a lot more 2B with Polanco only being available health wise 60-70% of the time. Polanco also gone after 2023…..could we be grooming Gordon for future at 2B after last year’s uptick offensively?

Blend a pitcher we see as serviceable (Sands - Winder) along with Kepler & Celestino for a proven arm or a high end prospect arm. If Jeffers &/or one of the young LH outfielders needs to be involved in a trade with Kepler to get a decent arm in return, do it.

In my opinion, Celstino’s “OK defense”, complete lack of power for an OF bat, terrible base running……all put him in a place where we don’t need to see him on our roster in 2023 & forward.

Larnach - Walner - Kirilof - Gallo - Gordon, assuming Max is traded, is still one more LH than needed. Gordon & Gallo aren’t trade bait. If somebody is more interested in “upside” than Kepler, keep Max & trade one of the other 3. NEED PITCHING DEPTH & Free Agency starters have sailed.

I think Arraez would get 2B if they lose Polo.

[In My La Z boy]

10 hours ago, Dr Katz said:

Keep Kepler, he will have improved offensive totals this year, and if Max goes to NY he will be an all star. 

Yes! Please don't trade him to NY

Maybe Falvey is working on something much bigger (I hope) - I like Max's chances coming off a poor offensive year and the elimination of the radical shift. Maybe it's not Max that gets moved? Wallner Gordon or Celestino? Larnach? We definitely need a BIG trade or we will be riding the HOPE train again on our young pitching and glut of #3 type starters. Now maybe that works out? We just cannot have enough pitching in my opinion.

[TwinsDr2021]

I don't think Max has all that much trade value, sure he is a could fit for a team trying to win and has a minor league prospect pretty close and if said prospect proves he deserves a chance Max moves to a 4th outfielder role or if that prospect isn't ready Max is a solid but not great MLB outfielder.

If the twins are looking at getting a starting pitcher back in a trade at least one and maybe more starting pitchers on the 40 man have to go. The Twins currently have 14 starters on the 40 man. And of those 14 only three haven't pitched in the majors (Headrick - 25, Enlow - 23, Balazovic - 24) and that doesn't include Canterino which I expect to be a relief pitcher.

The problem being of those 14 only two are young - SWR and Henriquez at 22.

[HrbieFan]

18 hours ago, cHawk said:

At this point in his career, Kepler is who he is: a defensive asset, albeit an offensive liability. His 2019 season is clearly the outlier, and it’s highly unlikely he will produce a such a season in the future.

A team that is woeful defensively in center-right field region but offensively potent would be best suited to Kepler’s services. According to the trade simulator, Kepler has a value of 7.6. He would likely bring a return that sums to approximately that value (one or two mid-level prospects)

He is also one of the top players hurt by the shift. How many of his ground balls to to the right side now sneak through? 

Yankees have a glut of pitchers, hiw about getting some of that depth? Clarke Schmidt or an injured Luis Gil would be fine by me. 

[Otaknam]

I have lost confidence in the FO given the head scratching move of signing Gallo, a left handed hitting outfielder with more swing and miss than Kepler, resulting in a glut of lefty outfielders. Also trading promising minor leaguers for starters with injury concerns like Paddock and Mahle. I fear more bargain basement signings for starting pitchers in the future instead of finding out what their young starting can do. pitchers. What a dreadful FO! Fire Rocco too, since he is clueless on handling starting pitchers. 

[Elliot]

I think that there is way too much emphasis on the Gallo or Kepler comparison. True, they are similar in that they can play gold glove level RF and serve as a short term answer in CF. They are also both LH hitters with some past history that the team would like to recreate, As veteran players, both offer some certainty, unlike the hope/potential of Kiriloff, Larnach, and Wallner. 

Rather than the Gallo/Kepler debate I believe that the focus should be on Gallo as a 1 year $11M insurance policy. If Larnach is not healthy, or needs more time in the minors, Gallo can be the LF. Same is true for Wallner, who likely needs more AAA time in any case. The FO has dropped hints about Gallo being a potential gold glover at 1B. If Kiriloff cannot come back or needs time to get his swing back at AAA, we have a 1B in Gallo. If injuries continue to be a problem for Arraez and/or Polanco, or if one is traded, there may be AB's available at DH (with Arraez fitting in at 2B). If 2022 was not an illusion in terms of Gordon's production, he will still get AB's as an OF or 2B.

What I am trying to say is that no one has to be traded, and certainly no one has to be dumped for less than market value. If I am not mistaken Larnach, Kiriloff, and Wallner all have options remaining and can begin the year at AAA. If everyone is healthy and producing come May or June, a decision can be made at that time. Any one of the players who are part of this ongoing discussion can be traded. If 2022 taught us anything it should be that the "If" in "if everyone is healthy" is a very important unknown. Worst case, Gallo is washed up and the Twins end up cutting him and they are out $11M with no future commitments.

[LA VIkes Fan]

18 hours ago, SteveLV said:

I would not fire sale Kepler at all.  He is still a decent player who may hit for higher average with the shift banned.  His defense is rock solid and he is, by all accounts, a good clubhouse teammate.

I like a potential OF of Gallo-Buxton-Kepler.  Terrific speed and range, and good to great arms.  Probably best defensive OF in baseball (when Buxton plays).  Gordon as backup is solid as well, and Larnach may surprise too.

If they can get good pitching for Max, sure, but not just to trade him for mediocre talent.

This is a very interesting idea. With those 3 OFs as the "every day" starters, we have 2 guys that can fill in for Buxton when he is off or DHing and not on the IL. Celestino can go to AAA where he develops more and is available if we need a long term CF due to a Buxton injury and if the team isn't comfortable with Gordon as that replacement CF. Larnach goes to AAA or is the 5th OF, same for Garlick. 1B becomes Kirilloff's home IF he's healthy. IF not, Arraez goes there instead of DH/UTL. Gordon is also a UTL with some time at SS to see if he can play there. The starters are Arraez, Polanco, Buxton,  Kirilloff, Miranda, Gallo, Vasquez, Kepler, Farmer, hitting in that basic order. It is too left handed so one would like to see a RH hitting OF/DH type better than Garlick. Gordon is super utility who plays SS and OF a t least 2 days a week each, bench is Gordon, Jeffers, a utility IF, and for now Garlick (there has got to be someone better). Not ideal, but still workable and gives MLB development time to Miranda and Kirilloff. If Kirilloff can't go, Larnach plays first or LF with Gallo moving to 1B. Larnach and Celestino develop in AAA and move up when the inevitable injuries hit the team. 

Look, this isn't ideal but right now it may be the best option we have. Trade Kepler and Larnach takes his spot. Better for development, but could be worse for 2023. Means to me that Kepler needs to fetch an MLB level reliever or a 10-20 type pitching prospect or we keep him. Tough choice.      

[Minny505]

I hope they contacted the Mets to propose Kepler for Guillorme and Ruf. That nets us a LHB SS with 3 years of control and a RH power bat to play COF/1B.

That fills two needs with one trade. 

 

[dex8425]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I agree with this. There has been posts and discussion concerning potential trades. Arraez should have some value clearly, but nothing has emerged thus far. The one player that most everyone feels could be in AAA, Gilberto Celestino, may still be needed to cover for Buxton. The situation is complicated, for sure. 

I think they will put Gallo in center to cover for Buxton, based on comments from Derek. 

[MGM4706]

Your comment that he gets "No lift" and that's why the new shift rule won't help is absurd. That's exactly why IT WILL help! There will be more space for ground balls to get through. He will gain 30 points on his average!!!

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, dex8425 said:

I think they will put Gallo in center to cover for Buxton, based on comments from Derek. 

Yes, this may be true as the Twins don't see defense as a very important element in the game.

[Twodogs]

I wonder how much Kepler's value gets lowered just by the fact that the Twins want to replace him with Gallo, a player that the Yankees didn't want?  

[Twodogs]

I wonder how much Kepler's value gets lowered just by the fact that the Twins want to replace him with Gallo, a player that the Yankees didn't want?  Plus why would the Yankees trade for Kepler when there are free agents out there that are ok ballplayers?  

[harmony55]

On 12/28/2022 at 11:49 AM, cHawk said:

At this point in his career, Kepler is who he is: a defensive asset, albeit an offensive liability. His 2019 season is clearly the outlier, and it’s highly unlikely he will produce a such a season in the future.

A team that is woeful defensively in center-right field region but offensively potent would be best suited to Kepler’s services. According to the trade simulator, Kepler has a value of 7.6. He would likely bring a return that sums to approximately that value (one or two mid-level prospects)

FWIW Baseball Trade Values only recently bumped Max Kepler's surplus value from $5.8 million up to $7.6 million.

Perhaps the change was a market adjustment in light of the free agents signings. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Kepler has more value to the Twins and more value than most people think.  Look beyond bWAR and fWAR.  His contract is not overbearing, he is consistent, there is a huge potential for an offensive improvement.

People have been questioning the Gallo signing since day one.  Gallo can easily be summed up in the following paragraph:

If Kirilloff...
If Wallner...
If Larnach...
If Gordon...
If Buxton...

That is a whole heck of a lot of "ifs".  That is why Gallo is here.  He covers all of those ifs, not to mention his ability to play corner infield spots.  Also, an outfield of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler is the best defensive outfield in baseball.

Gallo in does not mean Kepler out.  I am expecting Kepler to be on the Twins roster to start 2023. 

[dxpavelka]

On 12/28/2022 at 11:24 AM, Mike Sixel said:

There is a study out there showing that teams that trade more often get better faster than teams that are afraid to lose trades and sit pat.....

I'd trade him, but I really don't think they will. 

Actually, I believe the data would indicate that teams that make BETTER tradesget better faster.  But feel free to present conflicting data if available.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Twodogs said:

I wonder how much Kepler's value gets lowered just by the fact that the Twins want to replace him with Gallo, a player that the Yankees didn't want?  Plus why would the Yankees trade for Kepler when there are free agents out there that are ok ballplayers?  

Not at all. And, what free agent is as good?

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Actually, I believe the data would indicate that teams that make BETTER get better faster.  But feel free to present conflicting data if available.

?

[Twodogs]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not at all. And, what free agent is as good?

Well, I mean if you are looking for a one year filler, AJ Pollock would be a decent pickup.  I mean he probably has more projectable power.  He's on the older side, but I mean if you're only looking for a year stop gap until Cabrera is ready he'd be a good target.  Has won a gold glove in the past, probably isn't as good as Kepler since he's a little older but serviceable nonetheless. Also trade capital free which allows NY to use that capital at the trade deadline to push them over the top for a WS run?

[Trov]

I have long said corner OF have little trade value.  Unless they are elite defender and hitter, or super elite at either, they have little value.  The reason why is they are easy to replace.  I mean we have so many guys that are close to what Kepler can do we are looking to trade him.  

I also do not understand why so many people think with the new semi-anti-shift rules will suddenly make Kepler that much better of a hitter.  I could be wrong, but I do not recall Kepler being robbed from the shift all that often.  Also, if you believe in what Glenn Perkins said during the season, that BABIP across the league has basically been the same before teams shifted and after they shifted.  

If we keep Kepler, I hope I am wrong and he increases his numbers, but they will only be an increase of singles.  It is not like he will suddenly start hitting more HR or extra base hits.  The shift did not prevent that.  Maybe, he got too much in his head trying to avoid the shift over last few years that it hurt his power, but I doubt that.  I bet if you look back over a full season, Kepler may have lost 10 to 20 hits at most from the shift, but he also got a few hits because of the shift.  Also, the only difference is a matter of a few feet the fielders will have to move.  The SS can play an inch to the left of second, and can move the second the pitch is thrown.  The 2nd baseman can still play way in the hole toward 1st, just have to play on the dirt. The only hits that will come from this are the liners over the 2nd baseman head that would have been caught with the depth before, or the ground balls that due to the deeper play the 2nd baseman was able cut off.  

Kepler will not suddenly start hitting over .300 with much higher power.  He may see an uptick, but I think people are expecting way too much of an increase, if anything. 

[Battle ur tail off]

On 12/28/2022 at 1:41 PM, Craig Arko said:

I’d put Kepler as just a notch below Denard Span. So a possible pitching prospect. Alex Meyer obviously didn’t work out as hoped, but he was considered pretty high calibre at the time of the trade. 

If we could get that kind of return for Max, I think it's a good trade. Alex Meyer, although he bombed was a top 100 prospect in baseball at the time he was traded for wasn't he?

[Battle ur tail off]

6 hours ago, Trov said:

I have long said corner OF have little trade value.  Unless they are elite defender and hitter, or super elite at either, they have little value.  The reason why is they are easy to replace.  I mean we have so many guys that are close to what Kepler can do we are looking to trade him.  

I also do not understand why so many people think with the new semi-anti-shift rules will suddenly make Kepler that much better of a hitter.  I could be wrong, but I do not recall Kepler being robbed from the shift all that often.  Also, if you believe in what Glenn Perkins said during the season, that BABIP across the league has basically been the same before teams shifted and after they shifted.  

If we keep Kepler, I hope I am wrong and he increases his numbers, but they will only be an increase of singles.  It is not like he will suddenly start hitting more HR or extra base hits.  The shift did not prevent that.  Maybe, he got too much in his head trying to avoid the shift over last few years that it hurt his power, but I doubt that.  I bet if you look back over a full season, Kepler may have lost 10 to 20 hits at most from the shift, but he also got a few hits because of the shift.  Also, the only difference is a matter of a few feet the fielders will have to move.  The SS can play an inch to the left of second, and can move the second the pitch is thrown.  The 2nd baseman can still play way in the hole toward 1st, just have to play on the dirt. The only hits that will come from this are the liners over the 2nd baseman head that would have been caught with the depth before, or the ground balls that due to the deeper play the 2nd baseman was able cut off.  

Kepler will not suddenly start hitting over .300 with much higher power.  He may see an uptick, but I think people are expecting way too much of an increase, if anything. 

I agree. Teams want up the middle players unless their bat is special. Heck, I would bet when drafted most players towards the top are either CF, SS, C or Pitchers.

Kepler sure looked like he was the real deal in 2019, but although he was injured, he had a terrible year last year. Not sure what he is worth, but I still think it is a prospect for sure out of the top 100.