What Is Max Kepler’s Trade Value?

[Ted Schwerzler]

At this point of the Minnesota Twins offseason, it could be argued that Max Kepler being traded is more a matter of “when” than “if.” As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine put together the 2023 roster, they’ll need to figure out the glut of players in their outfield. What exactly is the German’s trade value though?

 

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Even before the Twins decided to spend $11 million on one season of Joey Gallo, there was reasonable expectation that Max Kepler’s days with Minnesota may be done. He is basically a known commodity at this point in his career, and while that’s not necessarily a bad thing, the front office likely isn’t worried about being burned by future development.

In 2019, when Rocco Baldelli’s club went Bomba Squad on the season, Kepler posted a career year. His 123 OPS+ was easily a high water mark, and well above the 101 OPS+ he owns as a current career average. He had blasted 20 home runs just once previously during a season in his career, and he nearly doubled that with 36 in 2019.

Kepler’s bugaboo offensively over the course of his career has been the way in which he contacts the ball. He makes solid contact and drives the ball, but his launch angle and swing path routinely generate the least desirable outcome. He gets very little lift on the baseball, and so even with the banning of the shift, he doesn’t stand to benefit a substantial amount. Generating a greater slugging percentage would require a change in approach, and Kepler has previously stated a desire to drive the ball towards the ground.

Obviously his offensive profile limits his overall value, but defensively he’s nothing short of a Gold Glove caliber defender. Despite never having won the award, he fares well by both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved standards. He’s somewhat stretched in centerfield, at least at Target Field, but he’s exceptional as a corner outfielder. In and of itself, that should have value.

When considering trading Kepler, Minnesota is likely doing so to create room and opportunity. In line to make just $8.5 million in 2023 however, dumping him for nothing is probably not a desired path to take. In seeing how the Arizona Diamondbacks benefitted from moving talented outfielder Daulton Varsho, there’s reason to believe Kepler’s return may be misstated.

Yes, Varsho is five years younger than Kepler and has already posted a better fWAR than the Twins outfielder ever has, but their game is not all that separate. Results are truly what divides the two, but Kepler has equal or better inputs at the plate. Defensively, Varsho is an exceptional outfielder while also having the ability to catch, but as stated Kepler is no slouch with his glove either.

The New York Yankees have been tied to the Twins as a potential trade partner for Kepler, and that has made sense from the time it was reported they wouldn’t go to great lengths for Andrew Benintendi. Gallo didn’t work for Aaron Boone’s club last year, and while Aaron Judge returns, the outfield remains largely in flux. Aaron Hicks is a consistent injury concern, and Giancarlo Stanton isn’t an ideal defender. Harrison Bader is a great defensive talent, but has never shown a consistent offensive ability. There’s certainly a need that could be filled.

Even if it isn’t the Yankees, reports have suggested Minnesota will have no shortage of suitors when it comes to Kepler. That doesn’t mean the return is necessarily going to be earth-shattering. Likely, the front office is targeting prospects in return for their current starter. What Kepler’s desirability could do though, is create an opportunity for the Twins to choose the best package from any number of teams that come calling.

Don’t expect Minnesota to net a top 10 prospect as the Diamondbacks did in Gabriel Moreno, but moving Kepler certainly isn’t just a way to clear salary or open a position. It may have been fair to suggest that going into the offseason, but the right fielder’s market doesn’t seem to be shaping up that way.

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[Mike Sixel]

There is a study out there showing that teams that trade more often get better faster than teams that are afraid to lose trades and sit pat.....

I'd trade him, but I really don't think they will. 

[jorgenswest]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There is a study out there showing that teams that trade more often get better faster than teams that are afraid to lose trades and sit pat.....

I'd trade him, but I really don't think they will. 

The Twins have made many trades in the last year. I don’t think they would be in a group of teams afraid to lose trades. If they keep him it will be because they value his contribution over the return. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins have made many trades in the last year. I don’t think they would be in a group of teams afraid to lose trades. If they keep him it will be because they value his contribution over the return. 

Agreed. I never said they were...

[Dman]

I go back and forth on Max's trade value.  I mean several teams could have had a Max type player in Gallo for just money and yet the Twins managed to snag Gallo for a one year 11M contract.  Max only costs 2.5M less and you have to give up trade capital as well. To me that says his market value might be lower than I was hoping.

Still Max shows strong underlying numbers in a lot of area's and if the Yankee's did grab him with the short right field porch it could be a difference maker for Max.  Just a few extra HR's that make it over that wall adds to his OBP and Slugging and I bet those numbers start looking much better.

If the Twins do trade Max to the Yankee's they better make it hurt because I have a feeling he could have a monster season in the Bronx.  

I do agree with Mike though the Twins need to find a decent return or they might as well just hang onto Max.  His value could increase by the deadline anyway.  We will see if some team pony's up but it might be a while as teams continue to fill out rosters with FA's and decide what to spend there tradable assets on. Unless the Twins get a deal they deem to good to pass up I would probably hang onto Max.

[tony&rodney]

Could Max return Oswaldo Cabrera from the Yankees? Does Miami have any interest in Kepler? 

When the Twins signed Gallo, they also likely reduced the asking price for Kepler.

Kepler, Buxton, Gallo, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon, Garlick, and Celestino make nine outfielders for thirteen roster positions. The Twins have been giving playing time to players with the highest paying contracts, which means an outfield of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler right now. Gordon was the Twins best outfielder last season and the one who displayed the most growth as well. It should be interesting to see what Falvey does between now and March.

[Whitey333]

Another interesting article.  I always find it strange that many new wave baseball "experts" like to down play results.  Here you try to compare Varsho and Kepler while implying the analytics are more important than the results.  What good is the total analytical approach if you don't get positive results?  Results, bottom line, is the most important thing.  But Falvey of course was recently quoted " it's the process not the results that's important.". I don't understand why a major league baseball team would want a philosophy like that.  If your goal isn't winning, you have no business running a team.  

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Could Max return Oswaldo Cabrera from the Yankees? Does Miami have any interest in Kepler? 

When the Twins signed Gallo, they also likely reduced the asking price for Kepler.

Kepler, Buxton, Gallo, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon, Garlick, and Celestino make nine outfielders for thirteen roster positions. The Twins have been giving playing time to players with the highest paying contracts, which means an outfield of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler right now. Gordon was the Twins best outfielder last season and the one who displayed the most growth as well. It should be interesting to see what Falvey does between now and March.

The asking price didn't change. Why would it? 

[Battle ur tail off]

Kepler's trade value?

By himself, my guess would be basically a lottery pick type prospect. Someone not in a teams top 20 guys for sure.

This is why picking up Gallo made zero sense. They are very similar players. So we are going to pay someone more money to do the same job and we are going to move the guy we have for a nobody...

[Danchat]

Just now, Battle ur tail off said:

Kepler's trade value?

By himself, my guess would be basically a lottery pick type prospect. Someone not in a teams top 20 guys for sure.

This is why picking up Gallo made zero sense. They are very similar players. So we are going to pay someone more money to do the same job and we are going to move the guy we have for a nobody...

I don’t think the Twins would be moving him for a lottery ticket, it sounds like there is some demand for him. I’d guess he gets one #11-20 prospect or a MLB reliever.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Kepler's trade value?

By himself, my guess would be basically a lottery pick type prospect. Someone not in a teams top 20 guys for sure.

This is why picking up Gallo made zero sense. They are very similar players. So we are going to pay someone more money to do the same job and we are going to move the guy we have for a nobody...

So, you get the same player plus a prospect, that's a win.

I remain convinced they aren't trading Kepler 

[Battle ur tail off]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, you get the same player plus a prospect, that's a win.

I remain convinced they aren't trading Kepler 

I suppose you are right. Max Kepler + 2.5 mill for Gallo and whatever prospect he nets you back. 

[Battle ur tail off]

15 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I don’t think the Twins would be moving him for a lottery ticket, it sounds like there is some demand for him. I’d guess he gets one #11-20 prospect or a MLB reliever.

I would be all for the MLB reliever. Especially if it is someone who throws hard or has some interesting pitch. 

A prospect in that range would also be a good return IMO if that is the kind of guy he fetches.

[Craig Arko]

I’d put Kepler as just a notch below Denard Span. So a possible pitching prospect. Alex Meyer obviously didn’t work out as hoped, but he was considered pretty high calibre at the time of the trade. 

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

But Falvey of course was recently quoted " it's the process not the results that's important.". I don't understand 

I could not find a source for this quote, after a short web search.  I don't suppose you have a link to what you remember reading/hearing?  I suspect that the quote is off by a little bit or is lacking in context.  What I expect he was trying to say is that momentary results should not sway your plan if you still believe the plan is sound.  To think that someone in charge would literally believe results don't matter is so ludicrous that one should re-check the source of that belief.

[cHawk]

At this point in his career, Kepler is who he is: a defensive asset, albeit an offensive liability. His 2019 season is clearly the outlier, and it’s highly unlikely he will produce a such a season in the future.

A team that is woeful defensively in center-right field region but offensively potent would be best suited to Kepler’s services. According to the trade simulator, Kepler has a value of 7.6. He would likely bring a return that sums to approximately that value (one or two mid-level prospects)

[Wilco1]

I don’t understand the Joey Gallo pick up at all. In my opinion I believe Max Kepler is going to have one of his best years. With the new rules intact and some changes with his swing, I believe we’ll see the best of Max this year. with all the outfielders that we have you would’ve thought the twins would’ve spent the money they invested in Gallo on pitching. Oh and by the way it’s still not too late to make another offer on Mr. Korea!

[BuxtonBonanza]

56 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Another interesting article.  I always find it strange that many new wave baseball "experts" like to down play results.  Here you try to compare Varsho and Kepler while implying the analytics are more important than the results.  What good is the total analytical approach if you don't get positive results?  Results, bottom line, is the most important thing.  But Falvey of course was recently quoted " it's the process not the results that's important.". I don't understand why a major league baseball team would want a philosophy like that.  If your goal isn't winning, you have no business running a team.  

Agreed, the analytics may be similar but the WAR results certainly aren't and even if you were inclined to trade for Kepler for the potential upside suggested by analytics, Varsho has 4 years of club control where Kepler has one more year then a club option. Varsho's analytics project him to be good, his history has proven he is good and taking into account that he is under significant team control and you can see how the D-backs could receive a major league player in Gurriel and a fantastic prospect in Moreno.

Conversely, Kepler has less control, less results and decent analytics so there is no way he is getting a Varsho-like return in the trade, especially if the sentiment is that he is likely lose his roster spot to the current version of Gallo. Sure some team may take a flier on him to get the current level of production and maybe more but I think at most we would get a mid-tier prospect here. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. I never said they were...

Sorry about that. I read the two statements as one thought. I shouldn’t make those assumptions.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, jorgenswest said:

Sorry about that. I read the two statements as one thought. I shouldn’t make those assumptions.

No issue. I was just clarifying, since I was unclear

[gman]

Whoever trades for Kepler is going to need to clear a 40 man roster spot or have a spot open. I think very few teams have a spot open. Like the Twins, everyone lost a year of minor league development because of Covid in 2020. I'd try to match with a team with obviously a need for an outfielder, that also has talented players in high A that won't get to the majors until 2024-25. Of course that same player will be taking a roster spot on the Twins and will need to be carried. But that's probably a combination that offers the best return. The Twins still have players that can be cut, or they can just wait until the 60 day disabled list goes into effect and opens a roster spot and then trade Kepler.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Could Max return Oswaldo Cabrera from the Yankees? Does Miami have any interest in Kepler? 

When the Twins signed Gallo, they also likely reduced the asking price for Kepler.

Kepler, Buxton, Gallo, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon, Garlick, and Celestino make nine outfielders for thirteen roster positions. The Twins have been giving playing time to players with the highest paying contracts, which means an outfield of Gallo, Buxton, and Kepler right now. Gordon was the Twins best outfielder last season and the one who displayed the most growth as well. It should be interesting to see what Falvey does between now and March.

Agreed on Gordon! To me, he’s our opening day LF. Also, agreed that we have too many OF & we didn’t sign Gallo to trade him.

Maybe we signed Gallo to play left and expect Gordon to play a lot more 2B with Polanco only being available health wise 60-70% of the time. Polanco also gone after 2023…..could we be grooming Gordon for future at 2B after last year’s uptick offensively?

Blend a pitcher we see as serviceable (Sands - Winder) along with Kepler & Celestino for a proven arm or a high end prospect arm. If Jeffers &/or one of the young LH outfielders needs to be involved in a trade with Kepler to get a decent arm in return, do it.

In my opinion, Celstino’s “OK defense”, complete lack of power for an OF bat, terrible base running……all put him in a place where we don’t need to see him on our roster in 2023 & forward.

Larnach - Walner - Kirilof - Gallo - Gordon, assuming Max is traded, is still one more LH than needed. Gordon & Gallo aren’t trade bait. If somebody is more interested in “upside” than Kepler, keep Max & trade one of the other 3. NEED PITCHING DEPTH & Free Agency starters have sailed.

[MABB1959]

I love reading TD, have gained a lot of knowledge and respect everyone on this board. 

Just have to ask.  Is it only me or have we had these wishful discussions but always end up on the outside looking in?  I have been super excited about 3 times over the last 10 years and end up disappointed most of the time.  Excited to get Cruz, Correa and a little for Donaldson.

Which players were your most exciting?

[SteveLV]

I would not fire sale Kepler at all.  He is still a decent player who may hit for higher average with the shift banned.  His defense is rock solid and he is, by all accounts, a good clubhouse teammate.

I like a potential OF of Gallo-Buxton-Kepler.  Terrific speed and range, and good to great arms.  Probably best defensive OF in baseball (when Buxton plays).  Gordon as backup is solid as well, and Larnach may surprise too.

If they can get good pitching for Max, sure, but not just to trade him for mediocre talent.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The asking price didn't change. Why would it? 

The Twins have very little leverage. Nine rostered outfielders are a pile and sending Wallner, Garlick, and Celestino down still leaves two extras. Gallo and Buxton will be in the lineup unless rested. Gordon is our best outfielder. I guess you could plug Kirilloff into first base, where I prefer him, but what happens to Arraez in that move? What happens to Larnach and Kepler? Do people think Polanco will be traded and Gordon put at second base? Does Larnach get moved? The Twins have LH bats that play in the corner OF and every team sees that. It would be pretty different to carry nine OF on the 40 person roster, but Falvey believes in process above results. We shall see.

[Doctor Gast]

I have to admit that I've been frustrated with Kepler during this hyper shift era. I know he tried to adjust & go the other way but little & limited success. But now I believe Kepler will be one of most benefitted players from this shift ban, once he can get his natural swing back.

Larnach, Kiriloff & Kepler have had a poor season due to injury & the shift, so I'm not crazy to trade any of them. But with the stupid signing of Gallo well have to make another stupid move by trading Kepler for poor players and or poor lottery tickets. The only trade I'm open for is either Marquez (CO) or Montas (NYY). I'd rather flip Gallo but with his high salary we'll have pay someone to take him once he's available.

I can't stress enough how stupid this Gallo signing is. Where we would lose someone better than him or prevent us getting someone who we really need.

[Doctor Gast]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have very little leverage. Nine rostered outfielders are a pile and sending Wallner, Garlick, and Celestino down still leaves two extras. Gallo and Buxton will be in the lineup unless rested. Gordon is our best outfielder. I guess you could plug Kirilloff into first base, where I prefer him, but what happens to Arraez in that move? What happens to Larnach and Kepler? Do people think Polanco will be traded and Gordon put at second base? Does Larnach get moved? The Twins have LH bats that play in the corner OF and every team sees that. It would be pretty different to carry nine OF on the 40 person roster, but Falvey believes in process above results. We shall see.

Kepler should play over Gallo but because of the process he won't. Because of the situation FO has put us in we'll probably have to sell Kepler at a loss. Larnach, Kiriloff, Kepler & Polanco trade value is below what it should be & none of them should be traded. Gordon is our most reliable OF & should be kept there, he's not a MLB INFer. 

Arraez trade value won't get any higher than what it is now and position wise will be the least missed. So he's the most obvious to trade, that said I don't believe it will happen.

To answer Ted's question about Kepler's trade worth. I say not enough.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have very little leverage. Nine rostered outfielders are a pile and sending Wallner, Garlick, and Celestino down still leaves two extras. Gallo and Buxton will be in the lineup unless rested. Gordon is our best outfielder. I guess you could plug Kirilloff into first base, where I prefer him, but what happens to Arraez in that move? What happens to Larnach and Kepler? Do people think Polanco will be traded and Gordon put at second base? Does Larnach get moved? The Twins have LH bats that play in the corner OF and every team sees that. It would be pretty different to carry nine OF on the 40 person roster, but Falvey believes in process above results. We shall see.

The leverage didn't change. That's just not how it works. And, does he really? come on.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I cannot see the team keeping both Gallo and Kepler.  I guess they could put Gallo in LF but hey, what about all the other outfielders that should be at the MLB level?

Since they cannot trade Gallo, I strongly believe that they will trade Kepler.  I agree with other posts though that we should not just give him away for a bag of balls.

[sun]

I doubt that Kepler can bring anything more than a prospect or two. But the money saved can be applied toward a pitcher.  Considering how few innings that our starters are allowed to pitch and the over-reliance on the bullpen game after game. I would like to see a reliever that's stronger than Pagan. I wonder what the price tag would be for Aroldis Chapman who is a free agent and if his contribution would be worth the price tag. If the Twins could sign him (or a similar pitcher) to a prove it deal for his estimated value of $6.6 mil or so then he might be worth the risk. Then accepting the loss of talent on a Kepler trade wouldn't seem to be a such a big loss.  Pagan just doesn't cut it for me.