Latest on Carlos Correa's Chaotic Free Agent Saga: Could the Twins Get Back In It?

[Mark G]

It seems funny to me (not funny as in ha ha, more like funny as in weird) that so much scrutiny is being paid to a years old injury, to the point of not signing a super star esq player, and by the same teams (us included) that were going to throw, or did in our case, 9 figure contracts at our own Buck, knowing he may never play a full season again.  7 years, 10 years, 13 years........Buck didn't make it through year 1, and we seem perfectly content to keep hoping for healthy seasons to come, and as well we should.  Is CC so much more of a risk than someone like Buck?    

Just a very funny scenario for an extremely humble observer to watch from a distance.  ?

[wsnydes]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

It seems funny to me (not funny as in ha ha, more like funny as in weird) that so much scrutiny is being paid to a years old injury, to the point of not signing a super star esq player, and by the same teams (us included) that were going to throw, or did in our case, 9 figure contracts at our own Buck, knowing he may never play a full season again.  7 years, 10 years, 13 years........Buck didn't make it through year 1, and we seem perfectly content to keep hoping for healthy seasons to come, and as well we should.  Is CC so much more of a risk than someone like Buck?    

Just a very funny scenario for an extremely humble observer to watch from a distance.  ?

I thought the same thing initially.  Why so much angst about an existing, and known, injury?  I suppose that if you're talking 13 year contracts versus 3, that's a much different story.  It's also possible that the condition of the injury got worse this past season and now is a bigger concern.  

[umterp23]

Cant wait for the MLBPA to get involved and complain about one of theirs not getting the best deal agreed to.  They will talk the narrative that the owners are starting a collusion tactic. Boras will point to himself as the agent of all agents and they are just screwing me.  Good times, happy money for Boras and Correa and they still are waiting.

[Trov]

What I find interesting is how fans were upset with Twins not offering more for Correa and letting him go, but now both teams that he has agreed to have balked after seeing the medicals.  I wonder if the Twins knew the medicals, and said this is our bottom line we are willing to put risk in.  Then when teams balked they wanted to have a second look.  I mean Borras now seems to be wanting someone to buy a house, without doing an inspection first.  Borras last off season said one of his clients, Conforto, would be ready to go by May, but he never signed with a team.  I do not trust Dr. Borras, and his medical opinions.  What concerns me more, is that either we did not do a good physical last year, being we want to see what other teams are seeing now.  

[In My La Z boy]

I am both bored by this, and intrigued by this. I wonder if some other owners have chastised Giants and Mets ownership for going 13 years. Boras is trying to establish a new marker. I don't recall seeing a scenario like this before with a superstar? Big signing news, then medicals, then backing out - 2 different teams. This, to me is all about pushing back on Boras and his insistence on pushing everyone to 13 years. That seemed to be his line in the sand for the Correa sweepstakes. Much more so than AAV obviously. What should our beloved Twins do? Put the 2 years and $70.2M back on the table he opted out of. That's as far as I would go. Our 2 best prospects, Lewis and Lee are both shortstops, Martin, maybe our 3rd best prospect can also play short. I like what Texas did. I wish we had DeGrom and Eovaldi darnet.

[Whitey333]

Enough of Correa already, enough!!!  For the Twins to re- engage contract talks with Correa would be one of the worst moves in club history.  Signing him last year sure didn't move the needle for the Twins.  With the twins history of staying in the bottom half of  payroll teams it means there is little to no monies available for real team improvements.  An argument about whether the twins should be in bottom half is for another topic.  Way too much on Carlos.  Get over it people.

[Johnny Ringo]

Is there any reason to believe the Twins really offered CC 10 years/$285 in the first place? Boras has every incentive to let that rumor live. He wants deep perceived interest for every client, whether it's real or not. 

Kate Upton was going to marry us if Verlander hadn't intervened. On Carlos and Kate, we need to move on folks. 

The business model is clear. Try to be 500ish, get in the playoffs if possible, sell beer and make money. 

I'm an ardent fan but I don't feel good about being complicit in the plan.  

[srlarson]

still would not do 10 years.....but if he wanted to come back for 3 or 4 at a high AAV then I would say go for it....or another contract like last year......awesome...otherwise let him go somewhere else.....

[jorgenswest]

If the medicals were completely clean would it be reasonable to expect a healthy 10 years on the investment? I wouldn’t think so. In a decade of play nearly everyone will have a significant injury or two.

These medicals open the door for a team like the Twins to win this deal. Give him that contract. We don’t need 10 great years from it. We need a great year from Correa to coincide with a great year from Buxton where both are healthy for the playoffs.

 

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

15 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The Twins should do in essence a 3 part contract with Correa;

Part 1: 3 years, $120M, followed by a player opt-out

Part 2: 2 years, $70M, followed by a team option with a $15M buy-out (payable across two years, disappears if Correa signs a deal in excess of 4 years, $100M, or $30M in AAV)

Part 3: 3 years, $90M

Correa gets another shot at FA (if he wants to), while the Twins max their investment at $205M ( in the years Correa should be healthy/producing)

Funny, I came up with a similar deal that could easily have worked for both sides... of course, this was before 12 and 13 year deals came into the mix over the last two weeks.  

5/$40m ($200m) - takes him to age 32.

First Opt Out option (Correa only)

2/$30m ($60m) - Takes him to age 34.

Second Opt Out Option (Mutual)

2/$25m ($50m) - Takes him to age 36

Totals - 9 Years at a total of $310m, or $34.44 AAV.  Two opt outs with one being just Correa's decision and the second being a mutual option.  Correa is only 36 at the end of the deal if it runs it's full course.  Or, he gets a $40m AAV for 5 years and can hit the FA market again at only 32 years old.  And for the Twins, the contract is actually front loaded instead of back loaded allowing for more flexibility as he gets older.  And if there in not a no trade clause included it's much easier to trade a 34-35 year old making $25m as opposed to $40m.  In 8 years Arb players will likely be making over $25m, or at the very least, the QO will average higher than that.  

However, even with the issues right now with the "injury" I still don't see the Twins making any serious effort in signing Correa.  I say this with confidence because no matter how Twins fans want to fawn over the supposed 10/$285m offer the Twins made, it was never going to get the job done.  NEVER EVER.  The Twins FO knew this beyond any reasonable doubt when they made the offer, and especially when they stuck to it with the other SS's came off the board.  

But, there is a small slight chance that another scenario could possibly work, but it is only a scenario where the Twins win-win on the deal.  In that I mean that they will impress the fans with a big deal for Correa and if the deal goes south because of the "injury" eventually showing itself in a few years then the Twins FO can just sit back and say, "You see.... this is why we never give out large contracts... because they're going to backfire."  And then they can just absorb the Correa contract and then not spend anymore money while it is still on the books.  But anyway, let's all take a trip to Imaginary World and see what a shorter deal that could work would/could look like;

3/$40 ($120m) - takes him to age 30

First Opt Out Option (Mutual with a $15m/$17.5m buy out if Twins exercise)

2/$35 ($70m) - Takes him to age 32

Second Opt Out Option (Mutual with a $10m buy out if the Twins exercise)

1/$30 ($30m) - Takes him to age 33 

Totals - 6/$220m ($200m guaranteed) $36.66 AAV

So yea....

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

I dunno.  You make some good observations.  I think the observation was made by @Ted Schwerzler about the Twins saw the same medical reports last year.

I think C4 would return and would be happy.  

I really think he/they (Boras), were trying to set some contract records to help down the road.  Remember Soto is coming up after 2024 I think it is.  Hence the reason he went with the 13 year and then 12 year contracts.

I honestly still believe, assuming C4 was genuine when he was here and I have no reason to think otherwise, his best overall place to play would be here.  I think he becomes the DeFacto leader along with Buxton of the Twins with guiding the young talent (and the Twins have a lot of it), on how to be a professional and how to prepare every day during the season and also what to do in the offseason.

But at this point, purely speculative and I am trying not to think of it any other way.  

Been a Twins fan far too long to get my hopes too HIGH...LOL

Gotta assume the medical issue that could shorten Correa’s availability may not have been a concern when signing a 3 year deal last year. If so, 10 years is a pretty bold offer if it’s serious. Maybe just an insurance hurdle they can’t get over at the length Giants & Mets were offering? Those actuaries can mess up what others seem to think isn’t a big deal. I get wanting insurance for sure the last 5 years of a 13 year deal, or “no deal” approach.

In my opinion, can sign Evan Longoria to a one year deal for experience, professionalism, and RH bat at DH……..maybe 25-30 starts at 3rd. 37 & not expensive at this point. Assuming there’s a connection with him and Baldelli from the Rays days that may help as well!

Eovaldi was too expensive & risky…….he’s had numerous health issues but still gets guys out when pitching. A lot like Sonny Gray. Eovaldi signed for 2 years & $34 million. That’s a deal!!!

Kick the tires with Longoria - may be a good fit & not as costly as we might think. He’d be great for $6.5M or less.

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, wsnydes said:

I thought the same thing initially.  Why so much angst about an existing, and known, injury?  I suppose that if you're talking 13 year contracts versus 3, that's a much different story.  It's also possible that the condition of the injury got worse this past season and now is a bigger concern.  

It’s also about insurability on the long, pricy contract. I think that is more the issue. There is a known, surgically repaired injury that projections don’t think kindly of. I don’t think it’s anything that hampers his play right now and there is no knowing how it will progress. I think a contract of 8-10yrs is still doable, front load the first half, so you are paying for what you get; incentivize the back half to cover your risk. If Correa thinks anyone is going to give him guaranteed money to the end, I think he may be looking at a career of 1-yr, make it good, contracts

[saviking]

You ARE right Nick, in my estimation. It would take unique cartomancers like these for us to have a shot. Like Correa saying, screw it! I'll just take the Twins offer. At least I know what I'm getting there. I've had enough shopping ....

[EGFTShaw]

42 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta assume the medical issue that could shorten Correa’s availability may not have been a concern when signing a 3 year deal last year. If so, 10 years is a pretty bold offer if it’s serious. Maybe just an insurance hurdle they can’t get over at the length Giants & Mets were offering? Those actuaries can mess up what others seem to think isn’t a big deal. I get wanting insurance for sure the last 5 years of a 13 year deal, or “no deal” approach.

I

True, but they did offer a 10-year contract based on what they knew.

But this, "Those actuaries can mess up what others seem to think isn’t a big deal", is spot on.  There are people behind the people who have input on these contracts that we aren't aware of.

[joefish]

Carlos who?

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Yeah, I'm confident that even these big spending teams do not want to pay the freight if an insurance company does not.  I suspect that how far in $ and years that insurance companies will go is what is holding this up.

[MarcF]

Even if the Twins do end up signing Correa, they will still be far from contenders. And there will be no $ left for the very tight Pohlads to enhance the team further. The starting pitching is suspect, as is the bullpen. There are just too many holes to be filled to contend, even in the very weak AL Central.

[Nine of twelve]

I would be interested to read an opinion from Lucas and/or Heezy regarding fibula fractures. As others have said, it seems increasingly likely to me that the holdup is insurance companies being unwilling to provide coverage for the contracts that have been offered. In two separate instances, no less. I'd be curious to know what types of complications can occur and how those would impact one's ability to play baseball.

[SteveLV]

It is not just the fractured fibula, it is the plate they put in and the likelihood of arthritis setting in.  Heck, it might already be present, and it is not going to get better with time.

Still expect the Mets and Correa/Boras to hammer out a deal, but with the passage of time things certainly are getting more interesting....

[Squirrel]

19 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I would be interested to read an opinion from Lucas and/or Heezy regarding fibula fractures. As others have said, it seems increasingly likely to me that the holdup is insurance companies being unwilling to provide coverage for the contracts that have been offered. In two separate instances, no less. I'd be curious to know what types of complications can occur and how those would impact one's ability to play baseball.

Heezy did weigh in … this was his post:

 

[sun]

Carlos is a stubborn & prideful man, and the more stubborn & prideful that he is the better for the Twins.  The big variable with this tri-partite situation is whether the Giants would be willing to match or beat the Twins best offer.  You can be sure that Buxton is on the phone with him urging him to remain stubborn with the Mets. Correa doesn't want to admit that he'd be losing at roulette by accepting any offer that's much less than Lindor is getting from the Mets, & less than he could have received from the Astros for 6 years. Another problem is knowing that he would need to fill in for Lindor if he gets injured. Hey Carlos, a 3B is just not worth as much money as a SS!  Carlos should understand that the Twins give players a lot of rest and treat their heroes like royalty. The Twins may change his position someday too, But Carlos needs to admit that if he wants money from the Twins or Giants that he needs to play SS or his value goes down.

I would be okay with the Twins offering Carlos $300 mil for 10 years, but not sure if the insurance costs are doable. That small tweak may be able to bring him back as long as he remains stubborn with the Mets and still wants to play full seasons with Buxton. His Puerto Rican connection with Lindor needs to be broken. It's business before pleasure. Friendship alone doesn't make enough sense to me as being the main reason for Carlos to move to 3B and possibly lose his chance for a HOF career as an elite SS. I don't believe that he really wants to settle to be 2nd fiddle when the Mets make their final offer

 

[Danchat]

4 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Is there any reason to believe the Twins really offered CC 10 years/$285 in the first place? Boras has every incentive to let that rumor live. He wants deep perceived interest for every client, whether it's real or not. 

Kate Upton was going to marry us if Verlander hadn't intervened. On Carlos and Kate, we need to move on folks. 

The business model is clear. Try to be 500ish, get in the playoffs if possible, sell beer and make money. 

I'm an ardent fan but I don't feel good about being complicit in the plan.  

At least 4 sources have reported the same offer from what I’ve seen, it would be hard to believe that it was some sort of fabrication at this point. The offer fits the FO’s MO of coming up short to a top tier FA, so I don’t see reason to doubt it.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The complete 180 being done in these comments just cracks me up...

Two weeks ago the Twins were too cheap to sign Correa.

Now they would be stupid to sign him to the contract they offered.

Absolutely nothing has changed in the Twins knowledge of Correa's health.

[IA Bean Counter]

26 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The complete 180 being done in these comments just cracks me up...

Two weeks ago the Twins were too cheap to sign Correa.

Now they would be stupid to sign him to the contract they offered.

Absolutely nothing has changed in the Twins knowledge of Correa's health.

Dan,  I completely agree with you.  We had individuals on this website posting articles how they are done with this organization/ownership/management.   I can understand being semi upset,  we should also know how in general the Twins are going to operate.  They are trying to go out and land big fish, they have achieved that twice now,  with Correa and Donaldson.  However it didn't work this time.  They will not go out of their comfort zone.  There is also an aspect that the medicals are causing more problems than initially.  

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Two weeks ago the Twins were too cheap to sign Correa.

Now they would be stupid to sign him to the contract they offered.
 

Is it possible these are different posters typing different things at different points in time?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

56 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Is it possible these are different posters typing different things at different points in time?

Of course (don't bring logic to an emotional discussion...). But you can't deny that the tone of the comments has changed considerably.
 

[Battle ur tail off]

8 hours ago, Trov said:

 I wonder if the Twins knew the medicals, and said this is our bottom line we are willing to put risk in.

My guess, the Twins knew he would go for over 300 mill, so they dropped in an offer for 285.

They have done it in the past multiple times. It's called a token offer and I would bet my house that if Boras called them back and said "hey we are good with you 285 offer" that the Twins would pull it. I don't trust any Twins FO/owner and never will. We have seen this game played way too many times...

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Absolutely nothing has changed in the Twins knowledge of Correa's health.

Well, actually something has changed. As most of us know, MLB teams carry insurance on contracts, especially large ones. An insurance company would be much less willing to cover a 10-year contract in a case like this than they would a 3-year contract. The Twins would have found that out had it gotten to that point with Correa.

[Riverbrian]

I was sleeping during med school but there are only 3 scenarios that make sense to me. 

1. The Twins were aware of the injury when the committed 105.3 million to him with player opt outs and went through with the deal anyway. 

2. The injury worsened over the course of last season. 

3. The Owners are asking the front office and medical staff why they didn't know about the injury. 

Does anyone else have a 4th or 5th scenario that I'm not thinking of? 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Well, actually something has changed. As most of us know, MLB teams carry insurance on contracts, especially large ones. An insurance company would be much less willing to cover a 10-year contract in a case like this than they would a 3-year contract. The Twins would have found that out had it gotten to that point with Correa.

I will bet my left shoe that one of the main reasons the Twins have held fast at their current numbers is due to the fact that this was a line for insurance purposes.  The Twins (and Astros) have the best medical information on Correa.

This has not changed.