Did the Twins Miss Something with Carlos Correa?

[Ted Schwerzler]

By now you’ve seen the San Francisco Giants back out of a mega-deal with former Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa. The New York Mets then took advantage of an opportunity to sign him, but have come up with red flags as well. Did the Twins miss something when they signed the shortstop last spring?

 

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

After Derek Falvey was able to shed Josh Donaldson’s salary in a trade with the New York Yankees, the Twins all of a sudden had additional funds. Thinking they were linked to Trevor Story relatively heavily, it wound up being Carlos Correa that they made a pact with in the wee hours of the night. Scott Boras and Minnesota’s front office came together on a creative deal to bring the former Houston Astro to a mid-market club.

While the deal was officially a three-year pact, the opt out ability after one year was always going to be exercised. Correa landed the greatest single-season average annual value for an infielder passing Anthony Rendon, and he got to explore the market again this season. While it wasn’t a ten-year deal, the Twins still were looking to protect their investment in doing a physical prior to things being finalized. Nothing out of the ordinary came up and both sides went about their business.

In a new report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, it was revealed that the holdup for Correa in regards to his physical deals with a surgery he had in 2014. Correa fractured his fibula as a prospect and the injury impacted his ankle more than his knee. The New York Mets apparently have similar concerns to the San Francisco Giants, but it’s not so much about what Correa’s body has indicated at all.

Looking at MRI results from that surgery, and how he has healed since, there is a question as to how his leg may hold up over time. As Twins Daily’s own Lucas Seehafer points out, that may not be the best way to utilize an MRI, and could be much ado about nothing.

Obviously Correa’s agent, Boras, has pointed out that he has missed very little time over the recent portion of his career and it has never been in relation to an ankle or leg injury. Correa’s back was problematic for a time, but that doesn’t seem to be anything of a concern for the teams willing to spend $300 million on him.

When Boras began shopping Correa’s services again following the Giants decision, or lack thereof, the Twins were consulted but didn’t want to raise an already low offer and had questions about the physical as well. That may have been an opportunity for them to put their best foot forward and make an offer he’d actually consider, but reopening the physical discussion didn’t do them any favors either.

The Twins last put Correa through a physical in March when they signed him during Spring Training. His injuries this season were related to the hit by pitch he took, and shouldn’t have created cause for concern regarding a malady they were unaware of. It’s not so much that the Twins missed something, but more likely that they evaluated a future differently.

Although Minnesota’s training room has been turned over now with Nick Paparesta coming in, they had plenty of eyes on his previous medicals. The Twins ultimately would have seen the same MRI that both San Francisco and New York have concerns over, but rather than extrapolate it as indicative of future issues, assessed current condition and known outcomes while weighing them more heavily.

Correa has already lost $35 million from his originally agreed upon deal with the Giants, and more could be lopped off if the Mets need to re-negotiate things. Maybe they go the route of including specific contract language like we have previously seen with J.D. Martinez, or maybe the deal goes belly up altogether. Either way, it sounds like Minnesota shouldn’t be thinking they missed something or that there is more they need to know.

If somehow Correa again comes calling, the third time may be the charm.

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[tony&rodney]

Did they or were the Twins aware that one year was not a big deal? I guess we don't know but it sure seems like there should have been some post season thoughts on the issue in view of the contract that the Twins offered ... unless the Twins were pretty sure that they were never going to actually be in the final picture to sign Correa. It does raise more questions though.

Time to just move on, unless Correa wants to sign another one year deal which is not happening. Okay, move on then.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins were on the hook for a 3 year, 105 million dollar deal. That's not chump change. I hope they did their due diligence and checked Correa 's medical situation completely.  If the opportunity presents itself to sign Correa to the Twins' offered contract, I hope it works out well for the Twins. 

[DocBauer]

This is me spitballing everything we think we know based on what's happened to Correa in this crazy offseason.

1] I don't think the Twins missed anything. They, and every other team, have access to his records and knew about the 2014 injury. The Twins saw zero concern.

2] There was a game, I want to say in July but I forget for sure now, where he "dinged" himself on a slide and the plate in his leg "resonated" or moved, or did something to cause pain. I have a pin in a finger that caused pain once in a while for years when my hand hit something. And that's a much smaller situation. I know people who have plates or rods in their legs that have issues once in a while, though they are not debilitated, but might have an issue once in a while. Is it possible that time and playing has made Correa's physicals question the "long term stability" of his plate? Has it made insuring said plate an issue? Right or wrong, I think this makes the most sense.

3] It's entirely possible this much ado about nothing. Correa was fine all season in regard to his legs. The Twins would ALSO want a new physical if he was signed, that is just due diligence.

4] I still find it "interesting" that Boras moved so fast to get a deal done with the Mets. I'm not much for conspiracy thinking, but it gives me some pause. But at this point, with the Mets' mad dash spending spree, I wouldn't be a bit surprise if they lowered their offer a bit, ignored the cost of insuring the deal, and still signed Correa. 

It's what I expect to happen. But I also expected Correa to already be signed, sealed, and delivered twice already.

IF the deal with the Mets falls through, or they try to amend the deal to something like 10yrs and $300M or less...a big IF IMO...it is my hope that Boras and the Twins will talk again.

The Twins were convinced he was good for 3yrs and $35M per before hand. Is there really something so new and different that they would remove their offer? And with the built in opt outs, Correa can still bet on his future earnings at 31-32yrs old if he wants to. 

All of these crazy $ amounts are beyond my imagination. Is it possible, at some point, he'd need a 2nd surgery to "tweak" this plate in his leg during an offseason surgery? Maybe. What's the risk vs reward IF this comes to pass? 

I doubt opportunity comes knocking a 3rd time. But if it does, the Twins might be smart to open the door for the long play.

[BuxtonBonanza]

I don't think they missed anything as I think the Twins and a bunch of other teams would sign Correa with his current health but it all comes down to length, insurability and risk taking. 

If no one can insure a long term contract and aren't willing to take the risk otherwise, then would the Twins be back in the game if they up'ed the AAV and offer a shorter term contract? The pendulum has swung to long deals with lower AAV but the Twins showed that 3/105 could work so upping the AAV could be another way to skin the cat (say 5/175-200?). 

That being said, I think the odds of the Mets' deal going south is very low, Cohen will want to save face as will Boras so they are motivated to restructure the deal rather than scuttling a second deal in a row. Still, I think the Correa 3/105 deal could serve as a template to try and bring in other free agents if this FO want to mitigate health risks. 

[tony&rodney]

A possible huge issue is whether a medical concern negates any chance of obtaining insurance for a contract. No insurance means no contract without major changes in language regarding potential injury within the contract.

Now that I read back a little, it does seem like the Twins may have overlooked the medical concern. After the Giants backed off the Twins held firm with their offer but also declared a wish to look further into Correa's medical history.

[Mike Sixel]

We really have nothing left to talk about? 

[jkcarew]

The same exact medical condition can be worth a 3-year risk and not worth a 10 year risk; or can be worth risking a piece of $280M but not a significant chunk of  $325M+. Same for insurability. There’s not much to be inferred here beyond the fact that these mega-term contracts will continue to see next-level scrutiny during execution.

[Doctor Gast]

3 yr. possibility or most likely a 1 yr. deal there was no reason to dive into long term digression. But with 13 yrs, 12yrs. or even 10yrs. this past injury does raise red flags. Hopefully the Twins saw this in the medicals & took it into account when drawing up the offer. But the fact they wanted to investigate the situation after SF balk, makes me think that maybe they didn't.

NYY has already sold millions of $ in tickets, so they'll not back out of the deal although they'll try their best to reduce the years as much as possible to satisfy the insurance risk. I believe both parties are motivated to get this deal done. I'm not sure if MN is in position to make a shot at Correa even if both parties are interested.

[Craig Arko]

The playoffs?

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

We really have nothing left to talk about? 

Are you issuing a challenge to see where the next blogger can take the Correa subject 

[old nurse]

If you want to know what could possibly go wrong just ask the insurance underwriter.  When you present a 300+ million liability they are going to give you the worst possible scenario for the highest bill. You can thank Albert Bell for that

[Riverbrian]

It was an industry assumption that Correa would opt out of that 3 year deal with us and he did.

Poor play or injury would have kept him in Minnesota for the duration. So... all the risk was on the Twins... the Twins better have known of any potential injury that would leave them holding a 35m a year bag for 2 additional years. 

If a more comprehensive physical was required due to the 300 million dollar figure, that would mean a  $105 million dollar deal such as the Twins struck is not a big enough deal to require the really really good  comprehensive physical.  

I will remain of the opinion that 70 million dollars of injured player is a huge issue for a team like the Twins.

If the Twins didn't know about the injury... that's a system failure that must be addressed. 

 

[Thebigalguy]

If Boras and Correa are smart, and obviously they are, they would give the Twins (on the sly) a chance to do whatever medical diligence they consider necessary. Ten years and $285 mil might look sweet to Correa before this is over.