Why Did the Twins Sign Joey Gallo?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Earlier this offseason, the Minnesota Twins traded third basemen Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels largely due to the fact that he would make roughly $9 million through arbitration. In signing left-handed slugger Joey Gallo, they’ve committed to an $11 million deal. There are a few different things they could be thinking.

 

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

First and foremost, time has passed since the Twins opted to trade Gio Urshela to the Angels. When they made that move, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were squarely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa. While they ultimately fell short as he went to the San Francisco Giants, $9 million for a guy that didn’t project to be in the starting lineup seems substantial.

From there, we can also presume that the Minnesota Twins do, in fact, intend to have Joey Gallo start most of their games in 2023. With Urshela vacating third base, talented youngster Jose Miranda will be expected to take most of the hot corner reps. He performed below average defensively last year at first, and Minnesota has maintained that third base is still his long term home.

That means Gallo will find most of his starts on the corners for the Twins. His most traditional position has been in right field. As much as Gallo is known as a slugger, he also is a plus defender with a big arm. Rocco Baldelli’s lineup currently has Max Kepler penciled into the right field spot, but it has been consistently reported that the longtime fixture has drawn plenty of trade interest. Although Kepler wouldn’t net a ton for Minnesota, moving him has seemed like the plan all offseason.

In doing so, Gallo would draw most of his starts in right field. That would keep Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff as the main left fielders, while also allowing Kirilloff to rotate at first base with Luis Arraez. Gallo has played first in his career previously as well, and certainly can take at-bats as a designated hitter for Minnesota. In the same vein of his contract, Gallo compares to the White Sox Andrew Benintendi and the San Francisco Giants Mitch Haniger. He may have a bit more upside than both, however, and a return to 2021 form would do the trick.

One would think it easy to assume that Gallo benefits from the shift being banned in 2023. That’s probably a fair assessment given that he’s been outspoken against it personally, and we started to see four man outfields in large part due to his batted ball profile. Eno Sarris wrote a great piece for The Athletic back in September, and Gallo (alongside Kepler) was among the names touched on.

In the piece, MLB writer Mike Petriello notes that while Gallo may not see the same shift, he’ll almost certainly still be defended differently. For a considerable rise in batting average, he’d need to drive the ball the other way, and that would be counterproductive to his batted ball profile. Gallo stands to benefit from a strong hard hit rate, and while things may rise slightly for him, his 121 OPS+ despite a .199 batting average in 2021 suggests success even in a non-traditional way.

Ultimately there’s a few things Minnesota likely sees in Gallo that made him a worthy acquisition. First and foremost, they now have money to spend. That wasn’t the case (at least not in the straightforward sense) when dealing Urshela, and Gallo is certainly going to start. Minnesota may still very well be operating with a plan to trade Kepler, and that opens up even more opportunity. Then there’s the positional flexibility, Gallo can play all three outfield spots, and that helps to create a more fluid lineup as well.

There’s no denying that Gallo was a train wreck in New York last season. He isn’t just a rehashing of Chris Carter or Miguel Sano however. Minnesota is looking at an opportunity to benefit on a bounce back, and even if he doesn’t offensively, there’s arguably little downside out in the field.

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[Dman]

In comparison to Max, Gallo seems to perform just a little bit better in OBP, SLG and ultimately OPS.  Gallo's batting average is terrible and coupled with the K's he will be a rally killer more often than not IMO.  The good defense does help a lot though as it makes him valuable beyond his bat.

He might be a slight upgrade over Max but not much that I can see.  Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.  If he can bounce back it would really help this team so I hope he does find his HR stroke again.

[Nashvilletwin]

What’s the saying - don’t keep p#&@ing on my leg and telling me it’s raining? Sorry, that’s a bit crude and unfair Ted, but I totally have got the under on a Gallo turnaround this year. Again, he’s a dart throw to try to save the CC plus Mahle, Gray and Maeda strategy that blew up in their face.

The absolute worst thing that can happen to this franchise is that there is some hope of winning the division come late June and our clueless, delusion FO decides to stay the course with Gallo, Kepler, Polanco, Maeda, Gray, and Mahle and losing all of them for nothing come ‘24. Oh, it could be worse, they could make another trade at the deadline giving up solid prospects for less than a handful of starts from a “fatigued” pitcher.

Anything that postpones the investment and evaluation of our new young core is a mistake at this point in time. Gallo is simply one piece of that postponement - almost regardless of his level of play.

 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

What’s the saying - don’t keep p#&@ing on my leg and telling me it’s raining? Sorry, that’s a bit crude and unfair Ted, but I totally have got the under on a Gallo turnaround this year. Again, he’s a dart throw to try to save the CC plus Mahle, Gray and Maeda strategy that blew up in their face.

The absolute worst thing that can happen to this franchise is that there is some hope of winning the division come late June and our clueless, delusion FO decides to stay the course with Gallo, Kepler, Polanco, Maeda, Gray, and Mahle and losing all of them for nothing come ‘24. Oh, it could be worse, they could make another trade at the deadline giving up solid prospects for less than a handful of starts from a “fatigued” pitcher.

Anything that postpones the investment and evaluation of our new young core is a mistake at this point in time. Gallo is simply one piece of that postponement - almost regardless of his level of play.

 

Why would they lose Kepler and Polanco for nothing come '24? They're both under team control through 2024 (2025 for Polanco).

[Nashvilletwin]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would they lose Kepler and Polanco for nothing come '24? They're both under team control through 2024 (2025 for Polanco).

 

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would they lose Kepler and Polanco for nothing come '24? They're both under team control through 2024 (2025 for Polanco).

No - good point. Just less possibly. And they too are part of the postponement. 

[LewFordLives]

Good write up. You come as close as anyone in convincing me why this was a good move, but I'm still not there. This signing seems like such a mismatch relative to their needs.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm sorry Ted you haven't convinced me at all about Gallo relevance on this club. You stated that Gallo has a better bat, I'm assuming you are correlating that to hitting HRs. My definition is the ability not to SO, which makes Kepler a much better bat.  

Gallo isn't profiled as a CFer so don't even think about putting him in CF. The fact that he's played there doesn't make him a CFer. Sano has played SS, that doesn't make him a candidate there.

IMO Gallo's biggest problem isn't the shift, it's his SOs, the shift ban will only elevate his BA slightly that's it. While Kepler will go back to his natural swing where he'll get his share of hit along with his walks. If it's between Kepler & Gallo, I'll pick Kepler every time, I don't care if there's trade interest in him, odds are we won't get what he's worth.

I don't care if Gallo returns to his old self, his old self tends to  hit HRs when we don't need them & SO when we do. even so IMO Gallo is going down the same path as Sano. We have so many more important needs that needed to be addressed before adding to the corner OF lefty bats glut.

[Nashvilletwin]

5 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

 

No - good point. Just less possibly. And they too are part of the postponement. 

I’m a little torn on Polanco. He could still have a bounce back year and be a solid veteran presence. 

[Doctor Gast]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would they lose Kepler and Polanco for nothing come '24? They're both under team control through 2024 (2025 for Polanco).

Kepler and Polanco had down years, Polanco because of unrested injury & Kepler because of the shift. I expect good rebound from both, with jumps in trade value.

[LewFordLives]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Kepler and Polanco had down years, Polanco because of unrested injury & Kepler because of the shift. I expect good rebound from both, with jumps in trade value.

Polanco's "down year" was still pretty good. He was worth 2.8 WAR in only 375 at bats. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, Nashvilletwin said:

 

No - good point. Just less possibly. And they too are part of the postponement. 

"The postponement" is an interesting situation right now. The Twins find themselves in a really tough spot (at least partly of their own making). They've been trying to let the young guys create a new core for at least 2 years (I think they were overly conservative in 2020 with Kirilloff). They've tried to hand Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, and Lewis starting jobs at some point over each of the last 2 years (I think we all assume Lewis was getting a shot in 2021). They've given Ryan, Ober, Winder, Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Moran shots to earn major league jobs. So far Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter potential on offense. Ryan, Jax, and Duran are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter/back end bullpen potential on the mound. 

I don't think it's totally fair to suggest they've been postponing things to this point. They've tried to establish 6 starting position players around Buxton (I don't think they had any real plans for Gordon to turn into a real piece so I didn't count him). 1 of those guys established himself (Arraez). 1 did enough to earn himself a fulltime starting job to start this season (Miranda) so they moved the guy "blocking" him (Urshela). The other 4 guys have been a mix of flashes of success in between multiple injuries. I get the calls for letting the young guys go, but what reason do we have to trust Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, or Lewis at this point? Kirilloff and Larnach have given the Twins every reason to sign former all stars as insurance at this point.

The pitching is along the same lines. Duran, Ryan, and Jax have established themselves in their roles, I think. Ober will get another shot at the rotation, but doesn't deserve an unquestioned spot due to his injuries. Alcala has been up and down, but certainly deserves a shot somewhere in the pen. Moran will get his second shot this year, and if he sustains his end of the year success he's another bullpen piece. Winder needs to show he can stay healthy. SWR, Varland, etc. are going to get their chances to establish themselves this year, and hopefully they take advantage.

The Twins have been trying to let young guys take jobs the last 2 years. Very few of them have been able to stay healthy and do it, though. I wouldn't be excited about the Twins 2023 chances if they traded Mahle (I'd actually extend him), Maeda, and Gray. I think the pitching side is setup perfectly to allow another guy or 2 to establish themselves in 2023 so they don't need to extend the aging Maeda or Gray. If Larnach or Kirilloff could be trusted at all I'd hate this Gallo signing. Instead I'm basically neutral on it. We know how they love to rotate guys in and out of the lineup and give guys rest and all that so I'm not worried about a healthy Larnach or Kirilloff getting ABs. They'll get their chances. And if they stay healthy and produce then Gallo becomes expendable via trade (if he's successful and it makes sense with the roster at the deadline) or release (if he sucks) or you thank him for his service at the end of the year (if he's successful, but the roster situation at the deadline means you don't trade him).

[Mike Sixel]

I think they keep Kepler and Gallo. Look at last year's disaster.

Me? I'd trade Kepler right now for a great prospect. Even a very good one. Yes, that would hurt 2023 depth. I'm willing to take that risk.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

"The postponement" is an interesting situation right now. The Twins find themselves in a really tough spot (at least partly of their own making). They've been trying to let the young guys create a new core for at least 2 years (I think they were overly conservative in 2020 with Kirilloff). They've tried to hand Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, and Lewis starting jobs at some point over each of the last 2 years (I think we all assume Lewis was getting a shot in 2021). They've given Ryan, Ober, Winder, Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Moran shots to earn major league jobs. So far Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter potential on offense. Ryan, Jax, and Duran are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter/back end bullpen potential on the mound. 

I don't think it's totally fair to suggest they've been postponing things to this point. They've tried to establish 6 starting position players around Buxton (I don't think they had any real plans for Gordon to turn into a real piece so I didn't count him). 1 of those guys established himself (Arraez). 1 did enough to earn himself a fulltime starting job to start this season (Miranda) so they moved the guy "blocking" him (Urshela). The other 4 guys have been a mix of flashes of success in between multiple injuries. I get the calls for letting the young guys go, but what reason do we have to trust Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, or Lewis at this point? Kirilloff and Larnach have given the Twins every reason to sign former all stars as insurance at this point.

The pitching is along the same lines. Duran, Ryan, and Jax have established themselves in their roles, I think. Ober will get another shot at the rotation, but doesn't deserve an unquestioned spot due to his injuries. Alcala has been up and down, but certainly deserves a shot somewhere in the pen. Moran will get his second shot this year, and if he sustains his end of the year success he's another bullpen piece. Winder needs to show he can stay healthy. SWR, Varland, etc. are going to get their chances to establish themselves this year, and hopefully they take advantage.

The Twins have been trying to let young guys take jobs the last 2 years. Very few of them have been able to stay healthy and do it, though. I wouldn't be excited about the Twins 2023 chances if they traded Mahle (I'd actually extend him), Maeda, and Gray. I think the pitching side is setup perfectly to allow another guy or 2 to establish themselves in 2023 so they don't need to extend the aging Maeda or Gray. If Larnach or Kirilloff could be trusted at all I'd hate this Gallo signing. Instead I'm basically neutral on it. We know how they love to rotate guys in and out of the lineup and give guys rest and all that so I'm not worried about a healthy Larnach or Kirilloff getting ABs. They'll get their chances. And if they stay healthy and produce then Gallo becomes expendable via trade (if he's successful and it makes sense with the roster at the deadline) or release (if he sucks) or you thank him for his service at the end of the year (if he's successful, but the roster situation at the deadline means you don't trade him).

It isn't GREAT.....but if you could add three players that good every year, you'd have a good team.......If you were willing to sign the occasional FA that was actually good.... (like the C this year).

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Kepler and Polanco had down years, Polanco because of unrested injury & Kepler because of the shift. I expect good rebound from both, with jumps in trade value.

I'll be pretty shocked if Polanco isn't a top 15 2B in 2023 again. I will not be shocked if Kepler continues to struggle. But I hope he bounces back and improves.

[Mike Sixel]

One thing is for sure.....not much happening in TWins' land that we got ANOTHER article on Gallo.....

[Ted Schwerzler]

23 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Good write up. You come as close as anyone in convincing me why this was a good move, but I'm still not there. This signing seems like such a mismatch relative to their needs.

It doesn't make a ton of sense now, but that's because Kepler is still rostered. I don't believe he will be by Spring Training.

[Ted Schwerzler]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Kepler and Polanco had down years, Polanco because of unrested injury & Kepler because of the shift. I expect good rebound from both, with jumps in trade value.

Thinking Kepler is going to be a good hitter because of the banned shift is widely overblown.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It isn't GREAT.....but if you could add three players that good every year, you'd have a good team.......If you were willing to sign the occasional FA that was actually good.... (like the C this year).

It makes me sad, and likely adds to my current frustration, that Larnach, Lewis, and Kirilloff have gone through what they have the last 2 years. If even 2 of those guys had established themselves as the top 6 in a good lineup bat with solid to above average defense that we all expect/hope they will become 2023 would look so much different to me. Arraez, Buxton, Polanco, Miranda, and 2 of those guys would've been a great base to build from. But since I can't trust any of those 3 to be a key player for the 2023 Twins I'm left crossing my fingers on a Gallo deal I wish they never even had to consider.

[Dman]

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"The postponement" is an interesting situation right now. The Twins find themselves in a really tough spot (at least partly of their own making). They've been trying to let the young guys create a new core for at least 2 years (I think they were overly conservative in 2020 with Kirilloff). They've tried to hand Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, and Lewis starting jobs at some point over each of the last 2 years (I think we all assume Lewis was getting a shot in 2021). They've given Ryan, Ober, Winder, Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Moran shots to earn major league jobs. So far Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter potential on offense. Ryan, Jax, and Duran are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter/back end bullpen potential on the mound. 

I don't think it's totally fair to suggest they've been postponing things to this point. They've tried to establish 6 starting position players around Buxton (I don't think they had any real plans for Gordon to turn into a real piece so I didn't count him). 1 of those guys established himself (Arraez). 1 did enough to earn himself a fulltime starting job to start this season (Miranda) so they moved the guy "blocking" him (Urshela). The other 4 guys have been a mix of flashes of success in between multiple injuries. I get the calls for letting the young guys go, but what reason do we have to trust Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, or Lewis at this point? Kirilloff and Larnach have given the Twins every reason to sign former all stars as insurance at this point.

The pitching is along the same lines. Duran, Ryan, and Jax have established themselves in their roles, I think. Ober will get another shot at the rotation, but doesn't deserve an unquestioned spot due to his injuries. Alcala has been up and down, but certainly deserves a shot somewhere in the pen. Moran will get his second shot this year, and if he sustains his end of the year success he's another bullpen piece. Winder needs to show he can stay healthy. SWR, Varland, etc. are going to get their chances to establish themselves this year, and hopefully they take advantage.

The Twins have been trying to let young guys take jobs the last 2 years. Very few of them have been able to stay healthy and do it, though. I wouldn't be excited about the Twins 2023 chances if they traded Mahle (I'd actually extend him), Maeda, and Gray. I think the pitching side is setup perfectly to allow another guy or 2 to establish themselves in 2023 so they don't need to extend the aging Maeda or Gray. If Larnach or Kirilloff could be trusted at all I'd hate this Gallo signing. Instead I'm basically neutral on it. We know how they love to rotate guys in and out of the lineup and give guys rest and all that so I'm not worried about a healthy Larnach or Kirilloff getting ABs. They'll get their chances. And if they stay healthy and produce then Gallo becomes expendable via trade (if he's successful and it makes sense with the roster at the deadline) or release (if he sucks) or you thank him for his service at the end of the year (if he's successful, but the roster situation at the deadline means you don't trade him).

This is a very balanced synopsis, Thanks!  Hopefully the young guys get started and make this team tough to beat. 

[Nashvilletwin]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

"The postponement" is an interesting situation right now. The Twins find themselves in a really tough spot (at least partly of their own making). They've been trying to let the young guys create a new core for at least 2 years (I think they were overly conservative in 2020 with Kirilloff). They've tried to hand Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, and Lewis starting jobs at some point over each of the last 2 years (I think we all assume Lewis was getting a shot in 2021). They've given Ryan, Ober, Winder, Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Moran shots to earn major league jobs. So far Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter potential on offense. Ryan, Jax, and Duran are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter/back end bullpen potential on the mound. 

I don't think it's totally fair to suggest they've been postponing things to this point. They've tried to establish 6 starting position players around Buxton (I don't think they had any real plans for Gordon to turn into a real piece so I didn't count him). 1 of those guys established himself (Arraez). 1 did enough to earn himself a fulltime starting job to start this season (Miranda) so they moved the guy "blocking" him (Urshela). The other 4 guys have been a mix of flashes of success in between multiple injuries. I get the calls for letting the young guys go, but what reason do we have to trust Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, or Lewis at this point? Kirilloff and Larnach have given the Twins every reason to sign former all stars as insurance at this point.

The pitching is along the same lines. Duran, Ryan, and Jax have established themselves in their roles, I think. Ober will get another shot at the rotation, but doesn't deserve an unquestioned spot due to his injuries. Alcala has been up and down, but certainly deserves a shot somewhere in the pen. Moran will get his second shot this year, and if he sustains his end of the year success he's another bullpen piece. Winder needs to show he can stay healthy. SWR, Varland, etc. are going to get their chances to establish themselves this year, and hopefully they take advantage.

The Twins have been trying to let young guys take jobs the last 2 years. Very few of them have been able to stay healthy and do it, though. I wouldn't be excited about the Twins 2023 chances if they traded Mahle (I'd actually extend him), Maeda, and Gray. I think the pitching side is setup perfectly to allow another guy or 2 to establish themselves in 2023 so they don't need to extend the aging Maeda or Gray. If Larnach or Kirilloff could be trusted at all I'd hate this Gallo signing. Instead I'm basically neutral on it. We know how they love to rotate guys in and out of the lineup and give guys rest and all that so I'm not worried about a healthy Larnach or Kirilloff getting ABs. They'll get their chances. And if they stay healthy and produce then Gallo becomes expendable via trade (if he's successful and it makes sense with the roster at the deadline) or release (if he sucks) or you thank him for his service at the end of the year (if he's successful, but the roster situation at the deadline means you don't trade him).

A lot of great points in this post! Agree that the transition has been happening and it has had fits (Kiriloff, Larnach and Jeffers) and starts (Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon).  Vasquez is a good hedge on Jeffers for the next several years. Just as Farmer is for Lewis this season.

The key now is to make sure we use 2023 to see what we have in Lee, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Larnach and Kiriloff.  That’s seven players Assuming 1) Buxton is in for 100 games/year in CF and some additional DH starts, 2) the three of Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon continue their progression, and 3) Polanco rebounds, we need at least four of those seven to emerge as bonafide big leaguers by the end of the season. All seven could! If we reach that goal of four to seven proving themselves, we will be in a great spot for ‘24-25 at a minimum. Let’s just make sure we give those seven every opportunity to reach that goal. Gallo and Kepler do not help in that assessment.

Re the starting staff, with a little foresight we could have started to build a strong staff for ‘24 and ‘25 in this off-season’s FA market. We didn’t. We shall see what is available next season. But we can’t extend Mahle now until we see what he has to offer after last season’s end of year debacle (I’ve got the under). We will essentially be having a bake-off this season between Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR for at least two starting spots in ‘24.  All four could succeed, but I’d take two right now. If we can extend one of Mahle, Maeda and Gray, we’d have four starter spots (Ryan is the fourth) locked up for ‘24 with some help on the farm available (the two losers of the bake-off and Balazovic, et al).

A competitive window could be approaching. We need good leadership, coaching and opportunity to maximise the possibilities. 

[Dman]

52 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think they keep Kepler and Gallo. Look at last year's disaster.

Me? I'd trade Kepler right now for a great prospect. Even a very good one. Yes, that would hurt 2023 depth. I'm willing to take that risk.

I could be wrong but I don't see the Twins trading Kep for a bag of balls.  A team is going to have to give them something decent to move him otherwise they can just try and build his value back and depending on where they are do a deadline deal.  I agree they could still use him for depth if they want to.  They do have a lot of outfielders on the 40 man though.

Would hate to see the Yankee's get him as so many Twins seem to perform well once there.  If they do trade him to the Yankee's they need to get something better back than John Ryan Murphy.

 

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, Dman said:

I could be wrong but I don't see the Twins trading Kep for a bag of balls.  A team is going to have to give them something decent to move him otherwise they can just try and build his value back and depending on where they are do a deadline deal.  I agree they could still use him for depth if they want to.  They do have a lot of outfielders on the 40 man though.

Would hate to see the Yankee's get him as so many Twins seem to perform well once there.  If they do trade him to the Yankee's they need to get something better back than John Ryan Murphy.

 

I'm not sure how to go from great prospect to bag of balls.....

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

A lot of great points in this post! Agree that the transition has been happening and it has had fits (Kiriloff, Larnach and Jeffers) and starts (Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon).  Vasquez is a good hedge on Jeffers for the next several years. Just as Farmer is for Lewis this season.

The key now is to make sure we use 2023 to see what we have in Lee, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Larnach and Kiriloff.  That’s seven players Assuming 1) Buxton is in for 100 games/year in CF and some additional DH starts, 2) the three of Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon continue their progression, and 3) Polanco rebounds, we need at least four of those seven to emerge as bonafide big leaguers by the end of the season. All seven could! If we reach that goal of four to seven proving themselves, we will be in a great spot for ‘24-25 at a minimum. Let’s just make sure we give those seven every opportunity to reach that goal. Gallo and Kepler do not help in that assessment.

Re the starting staff, with a little foresight we could have started to build a strong staff for ‘24 and ‘25 in this off-season’s FA market. We didn’t. We shall see what is available next season. But we can’t extend Mahle now until we see what he has to offer after last season’s end of year debacle (I’ve got the under). We will essentially be having a bake-off this season between Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR for at least two starting spots in ‘24.  All four could succeed, but I’d take two right now. If we can extend one of Mahle, Maeda and Gray, we’d have four starter spots (Ryan is the fourth) locked up for ‘24 with some help on the farm available (the two losers of the bake-off and Balazovic, et al).

A competitive window could be approaching. We need good leadership, coaching and opportunity to maximise the possibilities. 

I'll take the over on Mahle, he's my bold prediction for 2023. And my expectation is that he performs well enough that the Twins won't extend him because they won't pay market rate. But that's a different discussion for a different post.

The FO is in a tough spot. I don't know how secure in their jobs they feel, and that's a huge variable here. If they feel like they've got another couple years of runway/would be allowed to go into an abbreviated rebuild I think they should be trading some veterans this offseason. My guess is the Pohalds/St Peter see the dwindling attendance numbers, and their expiring TV deal, and want no part of a public punting of the 2023 season. Especially after St Peter's comments on attendance at the end of the year, they have to be publicly showing they're trying to win in 2023. I don't think they've done a good job of that. And based on convos with my friends and the forums here, I don't think I'm in the minority.

With the competition in this division, this half-a'd approach to the offseason could be enough to get into the playoffs in 2023. That's not good enough for me, and I'm not excited about this team at all. But I can see where there's hope. I just hope they're willing to make decisions quickly during the season if young guys are taking spots and let them run with them.

[se7799]

43 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

A lot of great points in this post! Agree that the transition has been happening and it has had fits (Kiriloff, Larnach and Jeffers) and starts (Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon).  Vasquez is a good hedge on Jeffers for the next several years. Just as Farmer is for Lewis this season.

The key now is to make sure we use 2023 to see what we have in Lee, Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Martin, Larnach and Kiriloff.  That’s seven players Assuming 1) Buxton is in for 100 games/year in CF and some additional DH starts, 2) the three of Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon continue their progression, and 3) Polanco rebounds, we need at least four of those seven to emerge as bonafide big leaguers by the end of the season. All seven could! If we reach that goal of four to seven proving themselves, we will be in a great spot for ‘24-25 at a minimum. Let’s just make sure we give those seven every opportunity to reach that goal. Gallo and Kepler do not help in that assessment.

Re the starting staff, with a little foresight we could have started to build a strong staff for ‘24 and ‘25 in this off-season’s FA market. We didn’t. We shall see what is available next season. But we can’t extend Mahle now until we see what he has to offer after last season’s end of year debacle (I’ve got the under). We will essentially be having a bake-off this season between Ober, Winder, Varland, and SWR for at least two starting spots in ‘24.  All four could succeed, but I’d take two right now. If we can extend one of Mahle, Maeda and Gray, we’d have four starter spots (Ryan is the fourth) locked up for ‘24 with some help on the farm available (the two losers of the bake-off and Balazovic, et al).

A competitive window could be approaching. We need good leadership, coaching and opportunity to maximise the possibilities. 

I know and understand you and others want the young players to not be blocked and play.  But honestly the Twins have been doing everything they can to give them opportunities.  The challenge is not if or how to give the kids a chance.  We've been doing that for at least the past two seasons.  The challenge is keeping them healthy.  So you may say let's rebuild and give the young players a chance....but if they are injured...what you are wanting becomes impossible.  The FO HAS BEEN trying to get our kids chances.

[Kipp35]

Ummm;

Gallo = .199/.325/.469 177HR over 8 years

Benintendi = .279/.351/.469 73HR over 7 years

Haniger = .261/.335/.476 112HR over 6 years

These are NOT comps to each other... Gallo is older and trails the others by 80 points.

$11mm, using last year stats equal:

$88,000 for every base he got (125)

$578,947.37 for each HR

$234,042.55 for each RBI

This is starting to make the contract the Mets still pay Bonilla each year ($1mm for being retired) look reasonable.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Kipp35 said:

Ummm;

Gallo = .199/.325/.469 177HR over 8 years

Benintendi = .279/.351/.469 73HR over 7 years

Haniger = .261/.335/.476 112HR over 6 years

These are NOT comps to each other... Gallo is older and trails the others by 80 points.

$11mm, using last year stats equal:

$88,000 for every base he got (125)

$578,947.37 for each HR

$234,042.55 for each RBI

This is starting to make the contract the Mets still pay Bonilla each year ($1mm for being retired) look reasonable.

We must no be looking at home runs or defense now? I mean, look at the home run difference. Did those others sign for one year? I literally can't recall right now 

[Doctor Gast]

48 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Thinking Kepler is going to be a good hitter because of the banned shift is widely overblown.

IMO Thinking Gallo is going to be that much better hitter is even more widely overblown. Both will have the same SOs & walks as before. HRs shouldn't effect that much between shift to no shift. The difference comes to who makes better contact. I believe Kepler will find his natural swing and Gallo like Sano will find it hard to get out of the rut that he's in.

[Doctor Gast]

47 minutes ago, Dman said:

Would hate to see the Yankee's get him as so many Twins seem to perform well once there.  If they do trade him to the Yankee's they need to get something better back than John Ryan Murphy.

 

Knowing the Yankees (& most other teams), they'll probably try to convince us to take 2 John Ryan Murphys

[mikelink45]

I believe that the Correa columns have finally run their course, now the Gallo justifications are flowing.  I remember articles justifying Sano until it was just impossible to write anything positive.  So here we are with an $11M strikeout artists - for a pitcher that would be good, for a hitter - not so much.  But he walked!  Wait - no he didn't last year his OBP was 280 = which would have been a good BA.  And his SP was 357 which would have been a decent OBP.  Maybe these are misprints - a column shifted to the right.

But of course we can fix any player - look at Archer, Bundy, Shoemaker, Happ, Robles, Vargas, Bailey, Colome, Pagan, Lopez - yes, send us your injured, your underperforming masses, let us make them all better.  Joey is next in line for Frankenstein's lab.

[Finlander]

I was really puzzled to see a lefty swinging corner signed, when that seems to be our deepest player type. Many are assuming this means Kepler is gone, and I can buy that idea. However, I'm concerned this signing may indicate a difficult or unclear recovery for Kirilloff after his unusual bone-shortening surgery. It bears watching this spring.

The "evil empire" could actually be a trade fit should we try again. We did pretty well last year clearing Donaldson out. Let's keep John Ryan Murphy out of this deal (Aaron Hicks too) and send Kepler and a prospect for Domingo German, who seems the odd man out of the NY rotation.