The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?

[spanman2]

Do they know you need to open up the piggy bank to obtain relatively successful pitchers?  

[laloesch]

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Correa has been very vested in this organization, he makes it his point. He knows it from the ground, up.  The players had input in who the Twins should sign at the deadline, which coach to rehire (I don't agree with). Correa is mentoring Miranda. IMO Correa was a Twin until he became a Met.

i really don't agree with this statement other than the mentoring part.  Correa WAS NOT a vested part of this organization, never was.  He simply made a few statements down the stretch and used the Twins as a stepping stone to get a bigger payday and jump to an organization that has a chance at winning something. And on the last point i don't blame him.  Who wants to play for a team that is a perennial loser and never takes the final step to become good.   That last tidbit aside, his agent is Boras who's a shark.  Our front office must have been expecting this when they went out and got Farmer. 

I'm sure Boras told Correa him what to say, when to say it, and good for him.  We know the Twins made several offers of differing amounts, length of contract, etc.  What happened beyond that is pure speculation, but in this case I think they deserve a bit more credit.  They still got played but they tried, as agonizing as that is to say.  What the Giants did was beyond stupid.  In fact it was so stupid they got cold feet and backed up.  In contrast the Mets offer was much much closer to the Twins and yet did he come back to the Twins for a second look?  Nobody knows, but considering how quickly he jumped to the Mets leads me to believe he didn't.  If he really wanted to be a part of this team and truly was "vested in this organization" he would have opened up negotiations with them again and at least talked to them some more.  Somehow i doubt that happened given the timing which tells you all you need to know.  He didn't really want to remain a Twin and just said all the right things as a player who wants a big payday, and honestly you can't blame him, it's business.

[Reptevia]

“They are also trading for players past the most realistic opportunity to lock them up long-term. Mahle is going to be way more interested in getting to free agency than whatever discounted contract the Twins could offer. They only window the Twins have to lock up players at the prices they're willing to pay is before the player reaches arbitration. Once they're a year away from free agency the player is going to bet on themselves.

BTW - Joe Ryan is in that window.”

So was Randy Dobnak. I liked that signing at the time, and I like it for Ryan and Miranda now. 

[mnfireman]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

BTW - Joe Ryan is in that window.

Ryan is under control through 2027, the season during which he turns 31. No need to lock him up, the Twins are getting his best years at a cost control rate.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Ryan is under control through 2027, the season during which he turns 31. No need to lock him up, the Twins are getting his best years at a cost control rate.

I'm guessing they trade him in 2026.

[Doctor Gast]

7 minutes ago, laloesch said:

i really don't agree with this statement other than the mentoring part.  Correa WAS NOT a vested part of this organization, never was.  He simply made a few statements down the stretch and used the Twins as a stepping stone to get a bigger payday and jump to an organization that has a chance at winning something. And on the last point i don't blame him.  Who wants to play for a team that is a perennial loser and never takes the final step to become good.   That last tidbit aside, his agent is Boras who's a shark.  Our front office must have been expecting this when they went out and got Farmer. 

I'm sure Boras told Correa him what to say, when to say it, and good for him.  We know the Twins made several offers of differing amounts, length of contract, etc.  What happened beyond that is pure speculation, but in this case I think they deserve a bit more credit.  They still got played but they tried, as agonizing as that is to say.  What the Giants did was beyond stupid.  In fact it was so stupid they got cold feet and backed up.  In contrast the Mets offer was much much closer to the Twins and yet did he come back to the Twins for a second look?  Nobody knows, but considering how quickly he jumped to the Mets leads me to believe he didn't.  If he really wanted to be a part of this team and truly was "vested in this organization" he would have opened up negotiations with them again and at least talked to them some more.  Somehow i doubt that happened given the timing which tells you all you need to know.  He didn't really want to remain a Twin and just said all the right things as a player who wants a big payday, and honestly you can't blame him, it's business.

What I know of Correa is that he does vest himself into the organization that signs him, because he likes to win & any way that he can to improve his team he'll do it. If the Twins would have shown that they were serious about contending, which of course includes giving him the contract that he wanted. He'd be happy being a Twin but none of that happened. Correa did circle back to the Twins but the Twins said no thanks.

I know that Boras is full of tricks and he was playing the Twins all the way. Further & further into the off-season the odds the Twins to sign Correa became less & less.

[laloesch]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

What I know of Correa is that he does vest himself into the organization that signs him, because he likes to win & any way that he can to improve his team he'll do it. If the Twins would have shown that they were serious about contending, which of course includes giving him the contract that he wanted. He'd be happy being a Twin but none of that happened. Correa did circle back to the Twins but the Twins said no thanks.

I know that Boras is full of tricks and he was playing the Twins all the way. Further & further into the off-season the odds the Twins to sign Correa became less & less.

There's a difference between doing whatever it takes to win (cheating being one of them) and vesting yourself in a team.  The two don't always align.  And I do think the Twins were serious about trying to sign him, but I also don't think he would have been happy being a Twin long term because they would not have made more corresponding moves to bring in better players to compliment him with his bloated salary on the roster.  Someone else here brought up the point that he's a big market in the spot light kinda player, which i agree with.  That probably also played a factor.  He likely WANTED to go to NY or to California which is fine.

And we don't know for sure if Boras really circled back to the Twins other than to drive other teams to up their anty.  The Athletic's piece is also pure speculation, and we also don't know if the Twins said "no thanks either."  From what I've heard they said the offer was still on the table. 

On the last point i agree Boras is definitely full of tricks and it certainly appears he did play the Twins, but i do give the Twins credit for not biting off more than they could chew and signing him to an albatross deal, which honestly would have been a terrible contract a little over halfway through, given Correa's back issues and apparently ankle issues.

Either way water under the bridge now, time to move on.  

[nicksaviking]

It was Rodon or bust. I could have gotten behind Bassitt I suppose but he's pretty dang old and his best pitch is his 93 MPH fastball. I'd be concerned about what happens to him once age starts eating away at his velocity.

But Syndergaard, Walker and Taillon are not top of the rotation pitchers, at least not any longer. They don't go above Gray and Ryan and if that's not where you're aiming, why would you bring in more pitchers when there is already considerably more upside in Mahle, SWR, Varland, Ober and even Maeda? 

I think Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez have probably already hit their ceilings and their values will likely never be higher, and Max Kepler has become expendable, so if they want to swing a trade using those guys as pieces, go ahead, but it's got to be for a reasonably good arm, don't take a spot away from the upside group just because we need some action around here.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It was Rodon or bust. I could have gotten behind Bassitt I suppose but he's pretty dang old and his best pitch is his 93 MPH fastball. I'd be concerned about what happens to him once age starts eating away at his velocity.

But Syndergaard, Walker and Taillon are not top of the rotation pitchers, at least not any longer. They don't go above Gray and Ryan and if that's not where you're aiming, why would you bring in more pitchers when there is already considerably more upside in Mahle, SWR, Varland, Ober and even Maeda? 

I think Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez have probably already hit their ceilings and their values will likely never be higher, and Max Kepler has become expendable, so if they want to swing a trade using those guys as pieces, go ahead, but it's got to be for a reasonably good arm, don't take a spot away from the upside group just because we need some action around here.

Sure, if you can get a really good pitcher for Arraez and Kepler and one decent prospect, sure. Good luck with that. What team that has a good pitcher in the majors wants two veteran hitters? 

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, if you can get a really good pitcher for Arraez and Kepler and one decent prospect, sure. Good luck with that. What team that has a good pitcher in the majors wants two veteran hitters? 

Agreed, it's unlikely. I can't imagine it would be two of those three, unless maybe it's Arraez and Gordon who are still both dirt cheap. More likely one of the three and a prospect(s). And if "unlikely" turns out to be "impossible", don't trade just for the sake of trading.

[laloesch]

44 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It was Rodon or bust. I could have gotten behind Bassitt I suppose but he's pretty dang old and his best pitch is his 93 MPH fastball. I'd be concerned about what happens to him once age starts eating away at his velocity.

But Syndergaard, Walker and Taillon are not top of the rotation pitchers, at least not any longer. They don't go above Gray and Ryan and if that's not where you're aiming, why would you bring in more pitchers when there is already considerably more upside in Mahle, SWR, Varland, Ober and even Maeda? 

I think Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez have probably already hit their ceilings and their values will likely never be higher, and Max Kepler has become expendable, so if they want to swing a trade using those guys as pieces, go ahead, but it's got to be for a reasonably good arm, don't take a spot away from the upside group just because we need some action around here.

I know some will disagree with this but i think the Twins could have used Rodon, but like Correa i think he was looking to play in a big city market so it was a moot point.

[Trov]

I am open to bringing in Lopez for the right price, but it is not like he is the best pitcher in baseball and may not be the best on the roster if we did trade for him.  He also has only 1 time pitched a full year, last year. Before last year he pitched 20 and 21 games in full seasons, 2020 he pitched 11 games.  His numbers are good, but not great.  In my opinion, if you are looking to bring in a starter, they need to be clearly better than the top guys we have, else you are just pushing back other guys that we should give a shot to.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

100% . Not only are they passing on the elite pitchers, they are passing on the next tier. Every year. Over and over.

But, but, but, we need to maintain payroll flexibility....

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

 

BTW - Joe Ryan is in that window.

Bingo. Ryan is the guy we should be building the staff around.

[TwinsDr2021]

Why do they need more starting pitching? They have Gray, Mahle, Ryan (26), Ober (27), Varland (25), Winder (26), SWR (22) and Paddock (26) coming back. Then for depth they have Maeda, Balazovic (24), Henriquez (22), Sands (25), Headrick(25), Enlow (23). (That is 14 starters on the 40 man)

That is why to me it was DeGrom, Verlander, Kershaw (all not real possibilities or Rodon and trade Gray or not bother with starters.

They have given a rookie a job the last two years Ober and Ryan. They need to give another rookie(s) a shot this year.

So unless they plan on trading Gray or Mahle and replacing them with an obviously better starter there is zero reason IMO to continue to let the prospects rot. For the love of gosh most of these guys aren't even young and teams aren't looking to trade for prospects older than their establised pitchers.

Why in the world would Miami trade Lopez(26) for any of the guys close to his age?

This is way the Twins should be spending big on offensive because they haven't developed crap on that side, but actually have done a decent job on the pitching side.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Bingo. Ryan is the guy we should be building the staff around.

I could agree with that if he wasn't 26 and had a couple of years of 150 plus innings. He is a guy you ride and trade away with year and half of control for prospects.

[USAFChief]

30 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

But, but, but, we need to maintain payroll flexibility....

If you use up your payroll flexibility you won't have payroll flexibility so you can't use up your payroll flexibility. 

[mnfireman]

39 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

But, but, but, we need to maintain payroll flexibility....

Flexibility, in general, is important. Just ask an old guy trying to get off the floor after playing with the grand kids.......

[RJA]

I am with all those who think trading Arraez or prospects for a pitcher who is clearly NOT a number 1 (Lopez) for two years makes no sense.  It puts them right back into the same situation next year when Mahle, Maeda, and Gray are FA's.  That is why signing a top tier pitcher to a long term FA contract makes so much sense.  It lends stability to the rotation.  But, it hasn't happened and is not likely to happen.  So, I also agree with those who advocate for creating a top tier bullpen.  It is the second best option, and in this division would probably be enough.  And, it shouldn't cost prospects.  How this FO thinks they can build a contending team for the long term by trading prospects for mid rotation starters is really nuts.  The worst part is that I now think they will feel a need to "do something" and that "something"  might be a big mistake. Let's hope not.

[terrydactyls]

I heard an interesting comment on MLB Radio this morning.  Two commentators we're having a discussion about the disparity in team payrolls and whether or not it's good for baseball.  One point that came up was that all the owners are billionaires so teams shouldn't worry about how much they spend on signing players.  The counterpoint argument was that some owners run their team to make a profit every year and others are trying to win.  Commenting on that premise, the first guy said:  "If they don't want to win, they need to sell the team to someone who does.  If not, they are doing a disservice to the players, the fans, and the community".  I agree.  Anyone else?

[Beast]

Why would they need pitching?  Falvey is the pitcher whisperer.  They have so many finely tuned and developed pitchers banging on Target Field’s doors that it looks like a walking dead episode.

In all seriousness, I don’t get it.  The only guy that has proven he can be good and stay healthy is Ryan.  Everyone else had injury issues (Ober, Mahle, Maeda, Paddack, Winder, even Sonny to a certain extent). Varland and Woods Richardson are unknown commodities (sorry, Varlands 4.4 FIP in 5 starts isn’t giving me early Francisco Luciano flashbacks).

The bullpen looks set up for another dumpster fire.  Duran is the only reliable guys in there.  Maybe Jax.  Theilbar is about ready to collect social security.  Lopez, Pagan, and Megill absolutely stink.  Alcala and Moran are promising but shouldn’t be counted on as back-end bullpen anchors.

The more I stew on it this off-season the more I realize how poorly run this whole operation is (but muh spreadsheets and analytics!), and the more I feel like I don’t really care if I ever see a Twins game again.

[roger]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I heard an interesting comment on MLB Radio this morning.  Two commentators we're having a discussion about the disparity in team payrolls and whether or not it's good for baseball.  One point that came up was that all the owners are billionaires so teams shouldn't worry about how much they spend on signing players.  The counterpoint argument was that some owners run their team to make a profit every year and others are trying to win.  Commenting on that premise, the first guy said:  "If they don't want to win, they need to sell the team to someone who does.  If not, they are doing a disservice to the players, the fans, and the community".  I agree.  Anyone else?

Have a question for everyone who thinks the Twins should be spending like the   Mets, Giants, etc.  Just went to the Mets website to see what tickets cost.  Late April weekend game versus Braves, lower level a few sections beyond third base.  Range was $190 to $390.  Twins don’t have single game tix available yet, but I am guessing less than a hundred bucks.  How many of you would be willing to pay, say $250+ per ticket?  And if so, how many games you going to?  For me it would be none.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, roger said:

Have a question for everyone who thinks the Twins should be spending like the   Mets, Giants, etc.  Just went to the Mets website to see what tickets cost.  Late April weekend game versus Braves, lower level a few sections beyond third base.  Range was $190 to $390.  Twins don’t have single game tix available yet, but I am guessing less than a hundred bucks.  How many of you would be willing to pay, say $250+ per ticket?  And if so, how many games you going to?  For me it would be none.

You can get Padres tickets for about $20.

[harmony55]

The Seattle Mariners may no longer be shopping 28-year-old righthander Chris Flexen but consider ...

These stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Flexen:

JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR
TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR
CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR

Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3.

Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018.

The Chicago Cubs signed Taillon to a four-year, $68 million contract and the Philadelphia Phillies signed Walker to a four-year, $72 million contract

Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

[DocBauer]

Yes, the Twins still need at least some pitching. To repeat a boring but accurate mantra; the Twins have the best available pitching depth they've had in years, rotation and pen, if they are healthy.

You can view this in 2 very distinct ways:

1] The Twins don't have a true #1, so their rotation is mediocre at best. And if you're betting on better health, your a fool as there are too many questions right now to place that bet. And the depth is young and unproven. The pen lacks a true closer, still has Pagan, and middle relief is still a question,

2] Virtually EVERY ML team has injury questions regarding their staff, more so their rotation, usually. Lacking some kind of ACE or PROVEN #1 is also something most teams struggle with. For the first time in a couple of years we will have an actual, normal ramp up to the season. This means pitchers will actually have team personnel working with the pitchers even before ST starts. (Mahle in particular spoke about this previously). Could a normal ramp up and a normal ST make a big difference for Gray and Mahle to not have hamstring issues and a tired arm by mid season?

Could Ober, and his new-found mechanics in 2021 keep him, at least mostly, healthy for a year now that things are normal in 2023? Can Maeda continue to build himself up, even with a few off days here and there during the season, be relied on? How about a healthy Alcala building on what he did to finish 2021 and his start to 2022 before injury? How about 5 guys in the rotation that are all #2-#3 and at worst a solid #4 with a solid pen?

The #2 option is not longer by design. It's just a fact that naysaying is easier and thus shorter to extrapolate than the positive aspects.

I just don't want to trade any more talent in the system, or off the ML roster, to add Lopez, or similar. But I'm not paid to make these decisions. And frankly, I'm not knowledgeable enough to know/understand if the Twins got a STEAL by doing so. But I do object to continuing to trade away talent for 1 or 2yr options on a pitcher and depleting the system when some of those "unproven" arms might be really good in a year or two. At some point, you have to trust in what you have and let them learn, and grow, and shine.

If you could tell me for certain that Eovaldi would be healthy enough for 25-28 GS for 3yrs at $18-20M per, I'd jump on that, monitor his IP, and make sure he was fresh for the playoffs because he CAN be a difference maker. He's as good, or slightly better, than what the Twins have now. But I'd better have the 6-8 SP that it APPEARS the Twins might have.

I trust in the potential of Alcala and Moran. I trust in the group of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Varland, SWR, and others to provide rotation depth and middle relief as bridge options to the back end of the pen. I still don't trust Pagan in any way, shape, or form and still think he's a huge mistake to keep around.

But other than a POTENTIAL deal with Eovaldi, once again, there's nothing left on the FA market that could make any kind of difference. And there is ZERO sustainability as a franchise if you keep trading away the future. I'd trust in what we have, talent and better health, use the young depth, and add a couple quality bullpen arms still available, and build my STAFF that way. 

Drop or trade Pagan for a bag of balls. Sheesh! I just can't believe we're still talking about him! Add a Rogers or Hand from the LH side. Add Fulmer or similar and make Moran and others earn their spot.

At some point, you will have to promote due to injuries and the such. But why not make your pen as deep as you can to comment a solid but not great starting staff? 

[Heistyman]

Sounds like Trevor Bauer may be released by the Dodgers and his suspension is lifted.  Trevor comes with a great deal of baggage but he was an ACE.  Do the Twins make a risky deal to get a potential ACE that is still relatively young?

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Heistyman said:

Sounds like Trevor Bauer may be released by the Dodgers and his suspension is lifted.  Trevor comes with a great deal of baggage but he was an ACE.  Do the Twins make a risky deal to get a potential ACE that is still relatively young?

I hear that to get Bauer you would have to be willing to commit him to 3 to 5 years (maybe at Stillwater?).

[Stew]

Bull, the Kansas City team won the world series. With average starters. Good but not great fielding and hitting. The only way a small to mid market team will win again is if they get 4 or 5 bulldog relievers like the royals did. They give guys with confidence. And no ego. They did whatever that was asked . They covered several innings when needed. We are unwilling or unable to compete for the big players.

[Twodogs]

Trevor Bauer might be available?  

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Yes, the Twins still need at least some pitching. To repeat a boring but accurate mantra; the Twins have the best available pitching depth they've had in years, rotation and pen, if they are healthy.

You can view this in 2 very distinct ways:

1] The Twins don't have a true #1, so their rotation is mediocre at best. And if you're betting on better health, your a fool as there are too many questions right now to place that bet. And the depth is young and unproven. The pen lacks a true closer, still has Pagan, and middle relief is still a question,

2] Virtually EVERY ML team has injury questions regarding their staff, more so their rotation, usually. Lacking some kind of ACE or PROVEN #1 is also something most teams struggle with. For the first time in a couple of years we will have an actual, normal ramp up to the season. This means pitchers will actually have team personnel working with the pitchers even before ST starts. (Mahle in particular spoke about this previously). Could a normal ramp up and a normal ST make a big difference for Gray and Mahle to not have hamstring issues and a tired arm by mid season?

Could Ober, and his new-found mechanics in 2021 keep him, at least mostly, healthy for a year now that things are normal in 2023? Can Maeda continue to build himself up, even with a few off days here and there during the season, be relied on? How about a healthy Alcala building on what he did to finish 2021 and his start to 2022 before injury? How about 5 guys in the rotation that are all #2-#3 and at worst a solid #4 with a solid pen?

The #2 option is not longer by design. It's just a fact that naysaying is easier and thus shorter to extrapolate than the positive aspects.

I just don't want to trade any more talent in the system, or off the ML roster, to add Lopez, or similar. But I'm not paid to make these decisions. And frankly, I'm not knowledgeable enough to know/understand if the Twins got a STEAL by doing so. But I do object to continuing to trade away talent for 1 or 2yr options on a pitcher and depleting the system when some of those "unproven" arms might be really good in a year or two. At some point, you have to trust in what you have and let them learn, and grow, and shine.

If you could tell me for certain that Eovaldi would be healthy enough for 25-28 GS for 3yrs at $18-20M per, I'd jump on that, monitor his IP, and make sure he was fresh for the playoffs because he CAN be a difference maker. He's as good, or slightly better, than what the Twins have now. But I'd better have the 6-8 SP that it APPEARS the Twins might have.

I trust in the potential of Alcala and Moran. I trust in the group of Winder, Sands, Henriquez, Varland, SWR, and others to provide rotation depth and middle relief as bridge options to the back end of the pen. I still don't trust Pagan in any way, shape, or form and still think he's a huge mistake to keep around.

But other than a POTENTIAL deal with Eovaldi, once again, there's nothing left on the FA market that could make any kind of difference. And there is ZERO sustainability as a franchise if you keep trading away the future. I'd trust in what we have, talent and better health, use the young depth, and add a couple quality bullpen arms still available, and build my STAFF that way. 

Drop or trade Pagan for a bag of balls. Sheesh! I just can't believe we're still talking about him! Add a Rogers or Hand from the LH side. Add Fulmer or similar and make Moran and others earn their spot.

At some point, you will have to promote due to injuries and the such. But why not make your pen as deep as you can to comment a solid but not great starting staff? 

Great post Doc.  It's quite apparent the only concern for many fans is right now.  A mid-market team trading away the future for a final piece is one thing but we are not remotely in that position.  We are the anthesis of looking for final pieces.  Even if we did trade for "final pieces" Gray / Maeda and Mahle are free agents next year and we are back to looking for pitching.  Anyone else tired of that position?   The only way this team succeeds beyond 2023 is if the young pitchers step up so let's give them that opportunity.  If they get the opportunity to succeed, they have 5 low cost SPs next year.  (Ryan / Ober / Varland / SWR and Paddack)  Sounds like Cleveland with a payroll budget of an extra $20-30M to spend on final pieces once you figure out what those pieces need to be.  Aaron Nola sounds pretty good at this moment.

I guess you could say the same for young position players (Lewis / Lee / Kirilloff / Larnach / Wallner / Martin and Julien).  Trading for short-term assets was a very bad decision last year.  I sure hope they don't repeat that mistake.

Who's place would Lopez take?  Ober?  How many wins is that worth?  How is that a net gain over Arrez?  Cleveland got Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez who had 6 WAR last year.  They were both MLB ready when Cleveland got them. That's the kind of trade that impacts a franchise and not for a year or two but at least six years (as Mike pointed out) and that's the kind of player you extend.  Instead of adding another good but unspectacular SP that does very little to change our trajectory,  I would much rather see them trade Arraez for a prospect that can truly impact this franchise.