The Twins Know They Need Pitching, Right?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Thus far this offseason the Minnesota Twins have largely operated in a Carlos Correa or bust vacuum, at least from what we’ve seen. There’s still plenty of work to be done, and one of the most important aspects remains finding a capable pitching addition.

 

Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa was the focal point of the Minnesota Twins offseason thus far, and while they may have pivoted to Dansby Swanson, both are now gone and heavy lifting needs to be done. Joey Gallo is a fine addition to the offense, but it’s on the mound that we’ve yet to see anything of substance.

There was never a reason to believe that Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were going to come pitch for the Twins. You could make an argument that Chris Bassitt or Noah Syndergaard made a good deal of sense, however. Derek Falvey has now provided the system with a decent amount of depth, to the point that a Jameson Taillon or Taijuan Walker contract may have been unnecessary, but top of the rotation help is still needed.

With Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Joe Ryan firmly entrenched in the Opening Day rotation, finding someone to join the highest level of that group is a must. Earlier this month I reported that the Twins were in talks with the Miami Marlins regarding Pablo Lopez. Sandy Alcantara is certainly not on the table, and although the Marlins are open to moving Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo, it’s the already established pitcher that caught Minnesota’s eye.

You can certainly debate whether Lopez is as good as Gray, but the two are much closer than one may think. Lopez has largely flown under the radar playing for an organization stuck in mediocrity, and he brings multiple years of team control to an acquiring team as well. Getting in the fold with a more progressive-thinking Twins organization could help him to unlock another gear, and considering the current state of performance, that’s a pretty exciting reality.

Like it or not, the Marlins discussions with regards to Lopez largely hinged on the acquisition of Luis Arraez. Miami needs bats, and although Max Kepler could also fit there, he’s not enough to move the needle. From what I’ve now been told, much of this trade has been scrapped. The two sides haven’t had recent discussions, and although they could resume at any time, the Twins have since begun looking elsewhere.

For the front office, elsewhere could mean plenty of things. What it likely doesn’t mean is the free agent market. Only former Boston Red Sox pitcher Nathan Eovaldi would seem to push the ceiling for Minnesota, and there’s been little reported that either side is moving in a positive direction toward one another. Zack Greinke and Corey Kluber remain available as veteran types, but again it’s hard to consider either a guaranteed lift to Minnesota’s group.

The biggest trade chip possessed by the Twins is probably that of Arraez. His value across the league is not at all that of what is presumed by most Twins fans, but he could still be packaged to acquire a talented arm. That probably is not true of Kepler, and I don’t get the sense that Minnesota wants to dangle someone such as Jorge Polanco at this time. Maybe the depth pieces like Simeon Woods Richardson, Bailey Ober, or Josh Winder could be turned into someone with a Major League track record, but that seems unlikely as well.

Given the state of free agency, it still seems most likely that Minnesota will flip pieces to get their pitching acquisition. How they go about that, given the recent moves sending guys like Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all out, will be interesting in and of itself. Having spent most of the winter watching from the sidelines as they awaited a Correa decision, the Twins now have their work cut out for them, and we’ll need to be patient seeing what they can pull off.

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[Reptevia]

I don’t think they’re even actively pursuing a starter at this point. I think they’re happy to roll with what they have. They may add a reliever or two if available at a reasonable price. If someone (any position) falls into their laps, they may add someone. This team is not one starter away or one position player away. Doesn’t really make financial sense to add more just to add. Will a Pablo Lopez raise our win total?  Maybe a couple..Will that make us competitive?  Probably not. Will it get people to come to games?  Probably not.  I don’t see this owner/FO throwing good money after bad. Call it a soft rebuild going into 2024, or call it more mediocrity. 

[mac098]

To be honest, it is a pretty poor off-season for the Twins. We haven't done much to garner any attention (like we ever do outside of a surprise signing like Correa last year), but this off season has been dreadfully slow for us. As a fan, it looks like the Twins FO are unsure what they want to do. There are times where it looks as if we should start the rebuild, and then there are times where it looks like we might have gotten a missing piece. But this offseason has looked like we have given up. This offseason is looking like we should start to find places for some of these expensive veterans to go and look to the future for a rebuild. 

I know that we have a lot of young talent on the roster and in the organization, but it is looking more and more like Falvey/Lavine have not been able to live up to expectations. Since they took over, the Twins are 451-421, with one 100 win season, and a shortened COVID season. We've made the playoff 3 times while missing them 3 times. Our supposed pitching "pipeline" has yet to show its face, a lot of our younger players have stalled out in development, either due to injury, new training staff, or just not meeting expectations, and our best player can't even stay on the field. How is this a winning formula for a team that is in a mid-small market and treated like a business? 

I don't know about you, but I love watching the Twins when we're winning, but its really tough to enjoy the Twins when we're repeatedly putting ourselves at a huge disadvantage by not being aggressive and going after pitching in the offseason. And right now should be our time to open the checkbook and sign some players. We have the space. But we need to take a look at our organization and ask, "Why don't players want to sign here in Minnesota?" Is it the culture we have? Is it the owners? Is it the FO? Is it the reputation of us losing playoff game after playoff game? There are a million different reasons why players don't want to come here. We just need to figure it out and make a change. 

[bloomwcjkl]

We need to sign the next Pete Redfern.

[roger]

Finding someone to add to the rotation is a must.  I think not and pray the FO does not agree with you.  And trading Arraez for anyone would be a disaster.  They have the AL batting champion.  Build around him rather than give him away if I read what you wish for.  Would another bullpen arm help, you betcha.  

[Nashvilletwin]

If the FO had recognized their pursuit of CC as the pipe dream it was, they basically could have had Anderson and Bassitt (or close equivalents) on minimum three year deals for the price of CC and Gallo.

With ‘23 looking grim, this is how you build for the future. Instead of trying to kick save the Maeda, Mahle, and Gray ‘23 strategy, it would have been smarter to invest in the Bassitt, Anderson plus one (or two) extension(s) of the three  ‘24-25 strategy. You start Maeda in the pen in ‘23 and wait for Mahle and Gray to break down to give Ober, Winder, SWR starter innings. At the deadline you move any or all of the three (Gray, Maeda, Mahle) who will not be extended.

This not only positioned the rotation for a more open window in ‘24-25, but also would actually have significantly increased the probability of contending in ‘23.

This FO is like the woman who backed into the airplane propellor: a disaster.

 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO Lopez trade was Correa's idea on being competitive because he wants to win. I trust Correa's judgement more than this FO. Now that Correa is lost, FO has floated the ridiculous rumors of trading Gray & Maeda along with signing Pollack, Turner or Gallo to see how the fan base will react. They must be listening to wrong fan base, because TD was overwhelmingly against any of these moves. I can't trust this FO on making an intelligent decision on their own. Not making the Lopez trade & signing Gallo, I'm more inclined that this FO will not do the right thing therefore they'll trade off Gray & Maeda.

As an optimist, I still hope that that Levine would communicate with his buddies there in CO, that Kepler would be a great fit for them and Marquez would do better here.

[tony&rodney]

The reason to add plus players via free agency is to avoid shifting roster potential on hand; add without subtraction. Realistically, there are not any free agents left that move the needle. Jurickson Profar is the best guy left and he just adds to the pile of outfielders without a big improvement. Trades are the only path forward unless the Twins are completely done with any additions and The Plan for 2023 is to count on a return to health plus an emergence of their youngsters. The stay put idea is preferable to trading off the limited members of our decent prospect pool and/or unproven young players. If the Twins must trade, and I do not advocate this as a good idea based on the difficulty the front office has had in their time, then Arraez, Kepler, Gray, and Thielbar seem like players that would return something. I will throw out three -    1. Arraez for Edward Cabrera and Jack Eder; 2. Kepler for Oswaldo Cabrera and  reliever; and 3. Gray and Thielbar for Masyn Winn. Again if the Twins won't sign a player that pushes everyone else down the rotation, they need to build their own. The alternative is to add real potential for the future. How this situation developed over the last three years is confusing.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, mac098 said:

To be honest, it is a pretty poor off-season for the Twins. We haven't done much to garner any attention (like we ever do outside of a surprise signing like Correa last year), but this off season has been dreadfully slow for us. As a fan, it looks like the Twins FO are unsure what they want to do. There are times where it looks as if we should start the rebuild, and then there are times where it looks like we might have gotten a missing piece. But this offseason has looked like we have given up. This offseason is looking like we should start to find places for some of these expensive veterans to go and look to the future for a rebuild. 

I know that we have a lot of young talent on the roster and in the organization, but it is looking more and more like Falvey/Lavine have not been able to live up to expectations. Since they took over, the Twins are 451-421, with one 100 win season, and a shortened COVID season. We've made the playoff 3 times while missing them 3 times. Our supposed pitching "pipeline" has yet to show its face, a lot of our younger players have stalled out in development, either due to injury, new training staff, or just not meeting expectations, and our best player can't even stay on the field. How is this a winning formula for a team that is in a mid-small market and treated like a business? 

I don't know about you, but I love watching the Twins when we're winning, but its really tough to enjoy the Twins when we're repeatedly putting ourselves at a huge disadvantage by not being aggressive and going after pitching in the offseason. And right now should be our time to open the checkbook and sign some players. We have the space. But we need to take a look at our organization and ask, "Why don't players want to sign here in Minnesota?" Is it the culture we have? Is it the owners? Is it the FO? Is it the reputation of us losing playoff game after playoff game? There are a million different reasons why players don't want to come here. We just need to figure it out and make a change. 

I'm curious...what players have said they don't want to play for the Twins? Just asking. 

[Dman]

Not much FA action in the entire central this year.  Seems like the White Sox are more interested in moving salary than anything else this year.  If the Twins get a starter it needs to be a front of the rotation type of pitcher or they might as well stick with what they have.  Once again they appear to have pitching depth with Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR with Paddack back maybe mid year.  So lot's of 5th starter material to work with. They can't be counted on but if Balazovic, Enlow and Hedrick improve dramatically they could be depth as well. If they can't find a deal they like I can see them standing pat.

If the FO thinks Polanco is a guy that gets it done not sure why they would hesitate.  They would still have Arraez they can plug in there and Jullien seems likely to be ready for 2nd at some point next year and they also have Martin who can play there and Lee might be an option at Short or second so they are going to have to move somebody off this team at some point.  Switch hitters are hard to come by but if the return is front of the rotation pitcher that this team desperately needs then I think they need to do it.

Honestly unless they get a deal they like I think the Twins will stand pat with what they have.  It isn't sexy but might be enough to take the central if this team can find a way to hit lefties.

 

[mikelink45]

I liked everything in the essay except the Gallo note.  I am just not seeing the strategy although I suspect we will make the last minute addition that this FO likes.  Our only real hope is that the prospects and the players who have just come up really make a stride forward and stay healthy - it is our only real hope right now.

[farmerguychris]

Bullpen help.  We have depth at starters, but even if we signed a true number 1 starter - the analytics this FO operate by suggest they would often not pitch past 5 innings.  Spend some money on the BP to replace Pagan, Megill, Sands, and Moran.  Last year we had a BP full of 1-inning guys - nows the time to address that and get a stacked set up back-ups who can pitch 600 innings.

 

[sjunisu]

1 hour ago, mac098 said:

But we need to take a look at our organization and ask, "Why don't players want to sign here in Minnesota?" Is it the culture we have? Is it the owners? Is it the FO? Is it the reputation of us losing playoff game after playoff game? There are a million different reasons why players don't want to come here. We just need to figure it out and make a change. 

The answer is simple - $$$.  We have yet to lose out on a player where we were the high bidder.  End of story.  When we become the high bidder, then we will sign free agents.  

[mnfireman]

33 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Lopez trade was Correa's idea on being competitive because he wants to win.

Now there is a novel idea. Let's ask somebody not even in the organization, a player no less, who we are years and millions apart in negotiations with, tell us how to run our team. 

More than likely the trade talks fell apart because the team no longer wanted to part with Arraez after not signing Correa. Or the Twins may have pivoted to Rogers, Luzardo or Cabrera, who are under team control longer, and the asking price got really big.

We, as fans, do not know why the talks stalled, but the talks could also pick up at any time. 

[Linus]

12 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Bullpen help.  We have depth at starters, but even if we signed a true number 1 starter - the analytics this FO operate by suggest they would often not pitch past 5 innings.  Spend some money on the BP to replace Pagan, Megill, Sands, and Moran.  Last year we had a BP full of 1-inning guys - nows the time to address that and get a stacked set up back-ups who can pitch 600 innings.

 

This is what I have come to believe as well. If they are sticking with the no to the third time through the order strategy then giving a front line starter $100 million probably doesn’t make sense. Build an excellent bullpen and win that way. We’ve got a good start: if we add 2 relievers at the Fulmer or better level we might have something.  And it certainly is something they can afford to do. 

[DJL44]

45 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

if the Twins won't sign a player that pushes everyone else down the rotation, they need to build their own

They have a potential All-Star starter sitting in the bullpen and he says he wants to be a starter.

They would be stupid not to add two relievers. They have two roster slots that will open in Februrary when Canterino and Paddack are eligible to go on the 60 day IL. Megill and Moran both have options.

[Doctor Gast]

28 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Now there is a novel idea. Let's ask somebody not even in the organization, a player no less, who we are years and millions apart in negotiations with, tell us how to run our team. 

More than likely the trade talks fell apart because the team no longer wanted to part with Arraez after not signing Correa. Or the Twins may have pivoted to Rogers, Luzardo or Cabrera, who are under team control longer, and the asking price got really big.

We, as fans, do not know why the talks stalled, but the talks could also pick up at any time. 

Correa has been very vested in this organization, he makes it his point. He knows it from the ground, up.  The players had input in who the Twins should sign at the deadline, which coach to rehire (I don't agree with). Correa is mentoring Miranda. IMO Correa was a Twin until he became a Met.

[Adam Friedman]

Similar to the offense, there is solid depth, but it's just lacking that star power you'd want. I think that we have a some game 2 starters but we need that "game 1" starter.

[Mike Sixel]

If they trade six years of SWR for two of Lopez, they should be fired. People do realize they need to keep prospects right? They won't sign long term deals, so the only way to have players is to keep prospects. 

They should not deal anyone, in a realistic trade, for only two years of a player at this point. I'm flabbergasted at all these trade suggestions for guys with limited control. 

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, Linus said:

This is what I have come to believe as well. If they are sticking with the no to the third time through the order strategy then giving a front line starter $100 million probably doesn’t make sense. Build an excellent bullpen and win that way. We’ve got a good start: if we add 2 relievers at the Fulmer or better level we might have something.  And it certainly is something they can afford to do. 

This wasn't a strategy until last year when their veterans were bad and hurt. Why do we expect it to continue? You wanted Bundy to pitch more innings? Or injured guys?

[dxpavelka]

The Twins need pitching because a year and a half ago they traded away the best pitcher they've home-grown in a  generation.  You're right about Arraez' value not being what it is presumed to be by Twins fans.  He won a batting title with an OPS under .800.  That's hard to do.  Hell, D.J. LaMahieu won a batting title with 10 home runs and his OPS was over 1.000.  Arraez hits for average and not much else.  He's not a plus defender.  If you can get a front line starter for him, make the move with the same urgency you should have used to sign Berrios to the exact same deal the Jays signed him to.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins need pitching because last year was a record year for free agent starters, and they sat it out. Just like this year. And every year.

[LewFordLives]

I was upset about the Bassit deal with Toronto. That seems like a deal the Twins could have afforded and there was not excessive long term risk.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I was upset about the Bassit deal with Toronto. That seems like a deal the Twins could have afforded and there was not excessive long term risk.

100% . Not only are they passing on the elite pitchers, they are passing on the next tier. Every year. Over and over.

[weitz41]

Pablo Lopez would be a fine addition to a team trying to win.

If this FO actually has a plan...and if it is to compete...He could help. The cost would be high. With them being paralyzed by sticker shock on free agents I can't seem them parting with the players it would take to get Lopez in a Twins jersey..

[Linus]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This wasn't a strategy until last year when their veterans were bad and hurt. Why do we expect it to continue? You wanted Bundy to pitch more innings? Or injured guys?

I dont what their plans are. No I don’t want Bundy pitching more innings which I never said. I want more innings pitched by good pitchers and I guess I don’t care anymore if it comes from a really good pen. 

[roger]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they trade six years of SWR for two of Lopez, they should be fired. People do realize they need to keep prospects right? They won't sign long term deals, so the only way to have players is to keep prospects. 

They should not deal anyone, in a realistic trade, for only two years of a player at this point. I'm flabbergasted at all these trade suggestions for guys with limited control. 

Can I like this twice, Mike?  Or three time?

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they trade six years of SWR for two of Lopez, they should be fired. People do realize they need to keep prospects right? They won't sign long term deals, so the only way to have players is to keep prospects. 

They should not deal anyone, in a realistic trade, for only two years of a player at this point. I'm flabbergasted at all these trade suggestions for guys with limited control. 

They are also trading for players past the most realistic opportunity to lock them up long-term. Mahle is going to be way more interested in getting to free agency than whatever discounted contract the Twins could offer. They only window the Twins have to lock up players at the prices they're willing to pay is before the player reaches arbitration. Once they're a year away from free agency the player is going to bet on themselves.

BTW - Joe Ryan is in that window.

[CRF]

I've lost what little respect I had for this FO...and that sure wasn't much. I wouldn't count on them to make the right move on anyone, or anything. Bassitt would have been the guy to go after, with Thor next. Apparently, we didn't try for either one. Sure looks to me that we're gonna roll with the starters we've got. They better make some moves for RP's, or we'll be in deep doo doo. 

[EGFTShaw]

Hypothetically and then I’ll shout it down easily. 
 

save your $$s, you’ll have more next offseason, and try for OhtanI 

skip next year too and try for Soto the following year. 
 

But if you had a hard cap on C4, you’re not getting in the discussion with either of those regardless of where they want to play. 
 

you can easily get people to come to the Twins, BUT you are going to have to pay them what they are worth and for the first one probably above that to get the ball rolling for the future. 

do you want to win championships or do you want to maximize your revenue year after year. 
 

play it safe and invest in a savings account or venture into the investments that may cause you to lose money but also a greater chance of hitting the jackpot 

no SP out there who might be available moves the needle enough. 

I think we have good pitchers in the pipe and on staff that maybe get a couple of dependable RPs to supplement 

j like Lopez, but he would be a 3rd SP and we have a bunch of 3s. With maybe one or two that might become a #2 wand with the right mentality a #1