The Twins Skimping on Correa Presents More Questions Than Answers

[IA Bean Counter]

11 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Going $285M and not being willing to hit the $300M mark is skimping. The Twins were at $280M in April. They increased the offer, days before he signed with the Giants, by $5M. That's still a huge chunk of change, but if you're never making an offer he was going to consider (and he wasn't signing for less than $300M), then waiting through FA for a deal that wasn't ever going to happen is pretty silly.

We are talking about a player whose deal just fell through due to medical concerns right? And what would he have accepted if the Mets weren’t a fall back. There is a chance he fails their physical too, but not likely.  

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Trading Correa would have been fine if we weren't contending. We were in first place. You can't trade him in that case. It's not worth alienating the fan base and the clubhouse to net one nice prospect, and that's all he'd have gotten you.

We heard the "they are in 1st place" logic over and over.  The fact is they were not close to being a serious contender given the number of injuries prior to the deadline.  They had been below 500 for June and July.  How does that make us a contender? They probably set the franchise back far more by trading all of those assets and not trading Correa than they did by not signing Correa.  You can always spend the $315M elsewhere.  They would have a boatload of prospects that would have been better spent in the off-season on longer terms assets.

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

What is the front office insight?  

 

18 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Plenty of front office insight on this.

 

I've waited 14 hours with no response. So... I'm going to ask again. 

If you have "PLENTY of front office insight", share it on Twinsdaily. You have PLENTY of it. 

After all, I'm under the impression that Twinsdaily does this sort of thing, providing Twins information to a Twins community.

Why would Twinsdaily keep this front office insight from the readers. I spend time on this website, I haven't read any front office insight, the real stuff, words from the people involved. 

Don't give me unidentified sources providing a sentence to someone from the Athletic. 

When you say it this definitively... people may believe that there is "PLENTY of front office insight on this". 

Since we currently have owners of this website providing articles of varying interpretations of the events, I will hashtag the owners @John Bonnes @Seth Stohs @Nick Nelson @Brock Beauchamp @Parker Hageman and wait for this "Front office insight". Hopefully not much longer. 

 

[Squirrel]

15 hours ago, mnfireman said:

They signed Vazquez (a better signing than Contreras IMO) and they were tied to both Rodon and  Swanson. Which of those contracts did you want them to best?? I don't think either ages well. Spending money just to spend money is foolish. 

Instead of focussing solely on Correa they could have worked to sign one of the other SS instead.  

[Squirrel]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

An 8/$306 offer should have been the first and last offer IF the Twins actually wanted to sign Carlos Correa. This determination should have been made by the end of the All Star Break last July. Otherwise, the Twins should have found a great deal to unload Correa for a top prospect. The ability to look around, be aware, and think forward is based on experience. The Twins leadership team are struggling right now.

I'm curious if a trade with Miami was contingent on the Twins signing Correa because it would free the team from counting on a few of their prospects. The lack of awareness within the front office was displayed most clearly by Dave St. Peter in his comments just after the season ended. 

I also wonder if trading Urshela was thinking they would get Correa

[Squirrel]

15 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

as things sit today, this team is worse than the team that went 78-84 with all the same injury questions.

This is the bottom line for me. Whether or not we got Correa, are we improved with the moves made? No, we are not.

[terrydactyls]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, pocket the money? Ugh. 

Use it for extensions of the young's.

As for Correa, once the Mets got involved, any offer from the Twins would be beaten by Steve Cohen.  Luxury Tax is not a real thing in his mind.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

This is the bottom line for me. Whether or not we got Correa, are we improved with the moves made? No, we are not.

Even if they did sign Correa, and it’s still possible the Mets back out and Boras/Correa comes hat-in-hand, and Falvine look like geniuses (point made by@KirbyDome89 maybe the Twins priced the injury into their offer) this is a worse team.

Farmer is a significant step back from Urshela in the extra infielder position and Vázquez is a massive fielding improvement from Sanchez but a slight step back with the bat. The Manfred ball isn’t going anywhere, so they flushed $11m down the toilet on 4th outfielder who hits left handed and they still need to carry Kyle Garlick on the 26. It’s still a worse team

and now to actually make improvements they have to swing trades, which puts the “sustainable success” thing at risk.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Even if they did sign Correa, and it’s still possible the Mets back out and Boras/Correa comes hat-in-hand, and Falvine look like geniuses (point made by@KirbyDome89 maybe the Twins priced the injury into their offer) this is a worse team.

Farmer is a significant step back from Urshela in the extra infielder position and Vázquez is a massive fielding improvement from Sanchez but a slight step back with the bat. The Manfred ball isn’t going anywhere, so they flushed $11m down the toilet on 4th outfielder who hits left handed and they still need to carry Kyle Garlick on the 26. It’s still a worse team

and now to actually make improvements they have to swing trades, which puts the “sustainable success” thing at risk.

Someone else said it … they are putting a lot of eggs in the ‘remain healthier, rookies stepping up and 2nd years taking steps forward’ basket. If all that happens, we may end up with a better record and even a playoff spot, BUT … that’s an awful lotta eggs in one basket and it still doesn’t make us a better team. And no trade for a significant player is not going to involve the future sustainability as you said.

The FO has put us in an untenable corner by not using FA along with development and trades. We can’t keep relying on the future to get us through. I see so many advocate for prospects being the answer, and then complain when they aren’t. Prospects and young players eventually gave us 87 … how long ago was that now?

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

I also wonder if trading Urshela was thinking they would get Correa

I don't think so. I think they felt Urshela was not an option at SS, even as a backup, and they were looking to move Miranda in as the regular 3B. Trading Urshela was more about rebalancing the roster to open a spot for a player who could legit play SS regardless of what happened with Correa. I don't think they saw Urshela as being worth $9M as a backup, either, and he would have been a backup at the start of the season, since the only spots he could get PT are at 3B (where he's behind Miranda now), 2B (everyone is behind Polanco), 1B (behind Arraez & Kirilloff), or DH (where he probably doesn't hit enough, and the Twins prefer to rotate guys through there anyways)

I don't necessarily agree with the move, but there's a logic behind it from a roster construction standpoint, especially if they're feeling confident in Brooks Lee being ready sooner rather than later, Austin Martin pushing for time, and Royce Lewis coming back healthy and ready by midseason, along with Edouard Julien. (of course, this is the opposite of their decision-making (so far) on the OF, with the Gallo acquisition)

I think it's fair to question the unwillingness of the FO to not increase their offer for Correa when the Mets offer ended up being so much closer to where the Twins had been. Could the Twins have gone 12/$315? Probably, even if stretching the contract 2 extra years doesn't help them in the same way it does a team like the Mets. Could they have bucked it up to 10/$300M? Also probably. Should they have tried to stretch? I think so, but...would that have gotten it done...no one knows. Would that have been a mistake?

William Goldman's best advice on the film industry applies here. "Remember, nobody knows anything." The appropriate emphasis is on "knows". We can speculate and conjecture, but nobody knows anything. Byron Buxton doesn't really know to what degree Correa wanted to come back here, so his comment is opinion. I mean, sure if the Twins offered MORE years and more dollars than anyone, he probably comes back. But even that isn't certain, and we don't KNOW it, and neither does Byron. Maybe we needed to beat it by $10M. Nobody knows if the Giants skittishness over a medical issue is reasonable or not. Nobody knows if Correa will be healthy for the next 5 years, the next 10 or the next 2.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

16 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

2 years 30m seems like a significant delta

I posted this elsewhere and am posting it here as well.  Taken from a Buster Olney paywall article:

Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

Correa's final decision was not about money.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Use it for extensions of the young's.

As for Correa, once the Mets got involved, any offer from the Twins would be beaten by Steve Cohen.  Luxury Tax is not a real thing in his mind.

Who? Who are your extending? And, that only goes so far. 

Putting aside CC, they haven't signed anyone other than Donaldson to real money for more than one year. Not even second tier players, let alone elite players. The money not spent there goes to the owners. It's not like they have a budget, and if they don't spend it give it as bonuses to staff, or save it for next year. They keep it. Need more yachts.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who? Who are your extending? And, that only goes so far. 

How about starting with Miranda, Gray, and Mahle?  If any of Kirilloff, Larnach, or Wallner next year?  Maybe Lewis, Martin, and Lee the year after that.  There are possibly better ways to spend money than signing one guy (who might have a medical problem).  Just my opinion and I know you think I'm wrong! ☹️

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

How about starting with Miranda, Gray, and Mahle?  If any of Kirilloff, Larnach, or Wallner next year?  Maybe Lewis, Martin, and Lee the year after that.  There are possibly better ways to spend money than signing one guy (who might have a medical problem).  Just my opinion and I know you think I'm wrong! ☹️

Mahle, Kiriloff and Larnach haven't been healthy for two years. Miranda? Sure, if you want to go to maybe 10 million a year. I'd extend Gray, but given this market, he'll want 4 years for at least 20 million a year .... hint....the Twins won't do that for anyone, let alone a pitcher.

[Thebigalguy]

As we know, Boras gave the Twins a shot. They were right to tell him to hike. I’m tired of greedy free agents and spoiled billionaire owners and unhappy Twin fans who want the team to splurge. No need. Let’s win the right way. Invest the money in affordable housing and cancer research. Let the big money teams embarrass themselves trying to buy a Series. That’s corruption. Let’s play Moneyball, not Monopoly. That is the Minnesota way. And I’m all in. Our society needs to grow up. 

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Mahle, Kiriloff and Larnach haven't been healthy for two years. Miranda? Sure, if you want to go to maybe 10 million a year. I'd extend Gray, but given this market, he'll want 4 years for at least 20 million a year .... hint....the Twins won't do that for anyone, let alone a pitcher.

If Gray doesn't like the offer, send him packing at the trade deadline.  I heard a rumor that Cincinnati has a minor leaguer named Chase Petty???

[bap3141]

20 hours ago, JYTwinsFan said:

I've been trying to monitor the reporting all day on this, so it's possible I've missed something, but I am surprised by the conviction a lot of people have around presuming to know what happened here. There's a pretty real chance that Correa has a significant medical risk that we will never know about (nor should we). For the time being, until further reporting or leaks, it seems worth considering that whatever it is...

1. It was enough for the Giants, under significant pressure with their fanbase, to walk away from the deal unapologetically risking egg on their face, relationship with Boras, a lackluster 2023 season, and criticism from their fan base equal or greater than the Twins. I suspect they did not do that lightly.
2. It was significant enough for Boras/Mets to settle on a deal worth $35mil less than the Giants offer.
3. It's entirely possible the Twins know this mark on his medicals and perhaps led them to cap their offer where they did.
4. Or perhaps Boras did approach the Twins after the Giants backed out and they stood firm with their offer.
5. I don't know much about insuring star athletes, but is it plausible that some actuary presented a case for insurance up to a certain amount based on Correa's medical risk and that is a factor that teams have to legitimately weigh. For arguments sake, what if they will only insure up to $285mil? 
6. Also...the deal with the Mets is not done...and I would think most would agree that the Mets offer here is not a sign of their confidence that the medical risk is insignificant. They are literally throwing money around and the physical is there to protect them too if they calculate differently between now and then. They'd suffer much less backlash because they'd be the second team to pull out validating the Giants move.

Anyway...fun reading everyone's speculation. But man, there's a lot here we don't know.

Well said. I agree 100% on all of this.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I posted this elsewhere and am posting it here as well.  Taken from a Buster Olney paywall article:

Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

Correa's final decision was not about money.

bright lights of Houston huh?
 

Annually yes he’s making less, but tax-wise it’s 1% difference between NY and MN and total contract is 10% higher. Correa nets 8.5 to 9% more in NY aggregate.

Also, to your point of not just about the money, Mets won 101 games last year, and signed Verlander and Nimmo. Good chance of winning a WS as a Met, Twins? Much lower 

[IndianaTwin]

On 12/22/2022 at 8:22 AM, Squirrel said:

Instead of focussing solely on Correa they could have worked to sign one of the other SS instead.  

Except that I think outbidding the deals the other three got would have been even sillier than offering Correa more. 

[howeda7]

On 12/21/2022 at 6:51 PM, tony&rodney said:

First, Falvey has a tough job. Second, Gleybar Torres, others have been returned in July trades. I know that would have been tough, but many of us simple fans thought Buxton, Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, and others were day to day in late July. One would hope the team knows more than the public about the health of their team, and the resulting potential to win games. I guess we really don't know what was going on with the injuries, but is it possible to contend with the team the Twins put on the field in August and September? Maybe the injuries and collapse were just unavoidable and unpredictable; bad luck. I wanted the Twins to re-sign Correa, but somehow it seems like Falvey should have had at least some control of the situation. Whatever, it is done. It's in the past, it does not matter.

Falvey's job is no tougher than 20 other GM's, he's just really bad at it.

We believed Buxton, Larnach, Polanco etc. would be available down the stretch because they told us that. If they knew that was not the case and it was a lost cause, then why did they trade for Mahle, Lopez and Fulmer? Clearly they believed they could win the division.

Trading Correa while leading your division, especially when you've lead it almost all year and there's no great team chasing you is just not done. They'd have been torched by the fans and media and had a mutiny in the clubhouse and rightfully so.