Here is How the Minnesota Twins Can Save Their Offseason

[Ted Schwerzler]

The past few years the Minnesota Twins have warranted a celebratory toast for the way in which they positioned their offseason additions. If we were to evaluate the front office right now, we’d be able to say they accomplished anything but that going into 2023. How do they save it?

 

Image courtesy of Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

There was no question that Carlos Correa was the focal point for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine this winter. Rocco Baldelli wanted him back, as did superstar Byron Buxton. Everyone said the right things, but when the dust settled the Twins presented an offer that was never going to get it done and came up $65 million short.

Then Carlos Rodon went to the New York Yankees. Then Dansby Swanson went to the Chicago Cubs. Every top tier free agent Minnesota could have realistically been involved with sought other alternatives.

No longer is there a plethora of starting pitching, and the shortstop group is the same holdovers that Kyle Farmer was likely acquired to help avoid. Unless Jose Iglesias draws the eye of the front office, or some alien-induced reunion with Andrelton Simmons is on the docket, there aren’t better options up the middle either.

Joey Gallo is a decent addition for a team that needed offense far too often last year, and while he likely makes moving Max Kepler a certainty, that should be viewed as a net gain. Christian Vazquez works behind the dish, and he’ll take pressure off of Ryan Jeffers. There are still holes, however, and at least $40 million needs to be spent on filling them.

So what happens? How can the Twins try to salvage this offseason? 

1. Sign Nathan Eovaldi
Eovaldi will be 33 years old in 2023, and he’s been healthy for a whole season just once since 2014. That said, he represents a player with the amount of risk Minnesota should be comfortable taking on. Whether Baldelli initially employs a six-man rotation or not, Eovaldi could find himself with opportunities for extra rest throughout the season thanks to depth such as Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, and others. When healthy, the former Red Sox starter can be elite. The velocity is still strong and his strikeout numbers are solid. He gave up too many home runs last year, but is just a season removed from Cy Young contention. With what is still out there, the Twins may have just one last shot to sign a starting pitcher.

2. Sign Will Smith
Really, there are still more than a handful of solid relievers left on the open market. The Twins goal should be to acquire at least two with high-leverage ability. I don’t think they make sense as a landing spot for aging veterans such as Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, or Zack Britton. Someone like Smith or a reunion with Michael Fulmer could work. Trevor Rosenthal may fit in this space if he’s healthy, but it’s the Astros World Series winner that should be prioritized. Smith has previously had multiple 30-save seasons, and although he has a 4.21 FIP the past two seasons, he was incredible with Houston down the stretch. There are lots of strikeouts to be had here, and Smith could certainly help Minnesota’s relief corps as a whole.

3. Sign Brad Hand
The fit is a natural one. Hand is a Minnesota native and would give the Twins another lefty out of the pen. He posted a strong 2.80 ERA for the Phillies last season, and while his secondary numbers were down, the Twins could make some tweaks to return strikeout performance back to where it was previously. Hand hasn’t lost much in the way of velocity, and he’s a big slider guy which is something this front office has consistently targeted.

4. Trade for Willy Adames
There were a few names I considered here. Brandon Crawford is being pushed off shortstop in San Francisco, but I can’t see the Giants pulling the band-aid off and flipping a fan favorite like that. Ha-Seong Kim could be available with the Padres acquiring Xander Bogaerts, and while they have Fernando Tatis Jr. returning at some point, the trio could be kept with Manny Machado having an opt out and Tatis likely moving to the outfield. Milwaukee has been linked to talks of shedding salary, and while they now don’t seem to be trading Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff, Adames could still be available.

Adames is in line for a $9.2 million salary through arbitration per MLB Trade Rumors projections, and he owns a career 111 OPS+. His 31 homers were a career-high last season, and although Farmer brings a bit of pop to Minnesota’s lineup, this would take that to another level entirely. Someone has to replace Correa’s production, and that was already in the context of a lacking offense. Adames has only played shortstop, and maybe the Twins don’t love that, but neither Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee are a slam dunk to stay there.

Although this isn’t close to what fans would’ve hoped for at the beginning of the offseason, would this be enough to satisfy going into the year?

View full article

[Karbo]

I agree that we need more bullpen help. Adames would look good in the Twins uniform also. Odds of that happening anyone?

[Mark G]

I could live with any or all of the above.  My only nay in the entire article is suggesting signing Gallo and moving Kepler is a net gain.  If I am proven wrong I will take my crow medium rare, but I have serious doubts about that one.  Otherwise, I would like to see us bring those guys here; would be nice additions.

[GKuehl]

Pretty solid plan. My question about Eovaldi is whether he’s worth losing the Competitive Balance pick for, since he received a Qualifying Offer. With the depth that we have in the rotation at the moment, I would prefer we sign Wade Miley or Michael Wacha, keep the Competitive Balance pick, save $10 million/year and spend it on further bullpen additions or a righty 1B or OF like Trey Mancini or AJ Pollock. 

[mikelink45]

Your Gallo statement is just not flying with me, but otherwise I enjoyed this essay even though I don't see enough to save the season. 

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I’m not really convinced that this moves the needle? I get that we all want them to Do More, but sometimes there just aren’t things that make sense to do.

The Twins will likely head into 2023 counting on internal improvement and health to improve their performance, and we’re gonna have to get used to that.

[Heiny]

I like your picks,  would love the Adames trade depending on what we would have to give up in trade.  In no circumstance would I want to give up Brooks Lee.  He would be my only untouchable in this scenario.  Also would not want to give up more than one of our top 10 prospects.  I'm not sure I could get this deal done.  Giving up Lewis would make me cringe, but I could do it.  What kind of package would this take?

[miracleb]

Agree with Heine......Adames would have a STEEP price tag!

[old nurse]

The #Brewers also plan to keep shortstop Willy Adames.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bob Nightengale

 

@BNightengale

·

Dec 2

The #Brewers, who have been shopping Kolten Wong all winter, are now telling teams that they are keeping aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. They are unavailable in trades.

 

3:25 PM · Dec 2, 2022

 

One out of four fixes are not likely 

 

Eovaldi’s agent team may have misread the market by not accepting the QO. He might be worth the QO on a 2 year contract. Sorry but the return isn’t worth the cost. The competitive balance pick would be better used as trade bait

 

Will Smith and Brad Hand. Well, they have Pagan, what do they need another reliever for? Relievers are always needed

[Whitey333]

Another wish list that Twins will probably ignore.  They will be hoping for a healthier team and improved performance from the players we have for the most part.  When the dust settles, Gallo the choker will be booed out of Minnesota.  Twins bullpen will blow another 12 games or so, clutch hitting will again be missing.  Also missing will be the continued dumpster diving stiffs Twins always seem to find.  Also we will have to stomach another season of terrible baseball.  Boring and uninspiring and perhaps 75 wins.  Fans will again be blasted for not coming to Target field as attendance will dip to 1.5 million.  Put a team on the field that competes and a FO that is serious about producing a regular contender and people will come.  Otherwise year 3 of awful baseball masquerading as MLB will bring the same old him drum performance and record.

[roger]

Adames, no.  Agree we need one quality late inning reliever.  Two good ones would be better.

[JD-TWINS]

Preaching to the choir!!

Sign Eovaldi for 3 yrs. (reality contract length)! Can’t sweat the compensation pick……..Maeda to Pen for added depth.

Sign Fulmer for 2 yrs.

Addames not needed……need to use Farmer for one to two years as bridge to youth. Already have our “iffy” power addition with Gallo.

I realize you/we need to try to be positive about Gallo signing but it’s highly suspect!!!

Use $$$ to extend at least 2 of 3 based on early season performance. Mahle - Gray - Maeda.

Vazquez - Eovaldi - Fulmer signings make for a good free agency offseason! 

[tony&rodney]

Some fair suggestions but Adames is off the table as far as Milwaukee is concerned and Eovaldi is a stretch in cost. If the Twins were in on Eovaldi, they would have had an interest in Swanson (not that Swanson was). One of Will Smith or Brad Hand is worth a shot. The trade market is what is left and I hope the Twins only use their 40 person players to acquire players. More and more it seems it is time to see what the young bucks have at the MLB level. Alas, Max Kepler is as good as gone. Maybe the Yankees send us Oswaldo Cabrera for Max.

[D.C Twins]

"....but is just a season removed from Cy Young contention"

"But is just a season removed from (fill in the blank)."  is another winning annual Twins marketing plan.

Trademark this ASAP Ted!

[RJA]

I like the idea that we need to strengthen the bullpen, so I would be a go on that.  I like Eovaldi but, my oh my, why is it that we seem to be a magnet for pitchers with injury issues.  I am leery of that move, though he may be the best we can do at this late date.  Adames all depends on the cost.  I am not a fan of trades for players with 1 or 2 years of control as it does not help you build a core.  Plus, the Twins have a bundle of infielders coming up in the system with Lewis, Lee, and Julien.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

Adamses. Not going to happen. imo. Hand and Smith would be worth a try, probably as good as anyone else still available.

Evoldi, no. I'd sign Greinke for a 1 and an option year.

[mickster]

I would like to see Fullmer and Hand added to the BP.   Eovaldi would be nice, but price is a question mark.   I am in the minority and like the Gallo signing IF Kepler is dealt.  Both are winners with the shift going away - and I think Gallo is a better defender and maybe will be allowed to run when he walks.   I would like to see us add Brandon Drury as he can play all over the INF and gives us some RH pop at DH

[Twinsoholic]

JD-Twins keeps hoping the Twins will sign Eovaldi: “Sign Eovaldi for 3 yrs. (reality contract length)! Can’t sweat the compensation pick……..Maeda to Pen for added depth.”

In his 20 starts this past season, Eovaldi threw 109 innings. Why would the Twins spend big bucks on that kind of “production’” for a one or two or three year contract? Can he go deeper into starts consistently? Maybe. But is that a chance worth taking for the Twins at an inflated contract and at the cost of losing a draft pick? It is worth noting that Eovaldi remains unsigned by any MLB club. Do you suppose that could have something go do with the draft pick compensation and his low number of innings per start? If he can’t improve his innings per start, a team burns up its bullpen each time he starts a game. The Twins should continue to pass on him.

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Twinsoholic
Punctuation

[tony&rodney]

I love Greinke but he would not pitch for the Twins if offered $20+ million. Guaranteed.

 

[MarcF]

Joey Gallo is a 'decent' addition? Are you kidding me? He is horrendous and a complete waste of money. In fact, you're lucky to see him foul a ball off during an at-bat. He typically whiffs, and doesn't take many pitches to earn the next K. The entire league knows to throw heat above the strike zone, and he'll go for it.  And his refusal to work with the Yankees hitting coach is what got him passed off to the Dodgers. It didn't take them long to discover the same problem. His occasional homers usually come when the game has been long decided, but his K's come exactly when he needs to hit the ball. $11 million? C'mon.

[MarcF]

6 minutes ago, Twinsoholic said:

JD-Twins keeps hoping the Twins will sign Eovaldi: “Sign Eovaldi for 3 yrs. (reality contract length)! Can’t sweat the compensation pick……..Maeda to Pen for added depth.”

In his 20 starts this past season, Eovaldi threw 109 innings. Why would the Twins spend big bucks on that kind of “production’” for a one or two or three year contract? Can he go deeper into starts consistently? Maybe  But is that a chance worth taking for the Twins at an inflated contract and at the cost of losing a draft pick. It is worth noting that Eovaldi remains unsigned by any MLB club. Do you suppose that could have something go do with the draft pick compensation and his low number of innings per start? If he can’t improve his innings per start, a team burns up its bullpen each time he starts a game. The Twins should continue to pass on him.

 

 

 

If Eovaldi wasn't long past his prime, he would have been signed by another team long ago. 

[MarcF]

9 minutes ago, mickster said:

I would like to see Fullmer and Hand added to the BP.   Eovaldi would be nice, but price is a question mark.   I am in the minority and like the Gallo signing IF Kepler is dealt.  Both are winners with the shift going away - and I think Gallo is a better defender and maybe will be allowed to run when he walks.   I would like to see us add Brandon Drury as he can play all over the INF and gives us some RH pop at DH

Gallo isn't a winner with the shift going away. He strikes out most of the time. The shift will have little bearing on his lifetime .199 average. 

 

[Heistyman]

At this point I hate to give up the draft capital or deplete the farm system anymore. So I'm out on Eovaldi and Adames.  Relievers are needed badly but I prefer Chafin but Smith is fine.  Getting Brad Hand sounds good as maybe he'd like to play in his home state.  I think we should roll with Farmer at SS and see how Lewis performs after 2 knee surgeries.  I wish we would have pursued Wil Myers instead of Gallo just a gut feeling on Myers but he is a righty bat.

[awmonahan]

After putting a dent in the farm system and coming in third, I don't see the FO losing a pick signing Eovaldi and trading prospects for Adames in this off-season. 

[Seth Stohs]

Not sure why they would want to add two left-handed relievers. Not sure if Smith or Hand is better than Thielbar. And does this mean we would want Moran back in the minor leagues?

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

I am passing on Eovaldi too.  Not worth his projected cost for the risk.  Would definitely be interested in Adames except for what I believe his cost would be.  Agree with others the best play is Farmer for short term until either Lewis or Lee are ready to take SS position over.  Pretty convinced one or both will be star players for the Twins.  

[JD-TWINS]

37 minutes ago, Twinsoholic said:

JD-Twins keeps hoping the Twins will sign Eovaldi: “Sign Eovaldi for 3 yrs. (reality contract length)! Can’t sweat the compensation pick……..Maeda to Pen for added depth.”

In his 20 starts this past season, Eovaldi threw 109 innings. Why would the Twins spend big bucks on that kind of “production’” for a one or two or three year contract? Can he go deeper into starts consistently? Maybe. But is that a chance worth taking for the Twins at an inflated contract and at the cost of losing a draft pick? It is worth noting that Eovaldi remains unsigned by any MLB club. Do you suppose that could have something go do with the draft pick compensation and his low number of innings per start? If he can’t improve his innings per start, a team burns up its bullpen each time he starts a game. The Twins should continue to pass on him.

 

 

 

I get the skepticism on Eovaldi. Among the free agent pitchers he has forth highest WAR @ 6.7. This was in 2022. If he starts only 25 games and gets past the fifth inning in 18 games, we have a really good chance he’ll, we’ll win 14 or 15………I believe this true of Sonny Gray as well. I don’t see Eovaldi any differently than Gray - just at a higher price now as market has shifted up and he’s a FA. He’ll tax the Pen just like Gray.

Delay in any signing is teams trying to push down his ask. Not rocket science for any GM here, but how about a $16M base with up to $6-$8 M more based on innings/ERA/starts/etc.

Signing him gets us quality innings to get to Maeda or Jax or Megill to work til the 8th.

Even going unconventional, with 6 starters every other turn is a possibility. His depth allows us to consider this approach as a reality.

Performance risk for the $$ spent is a pro sports risk with everyone on the roster. Not looking to trade Buxton……he’s the poster child for lack of availability. I get it - be risk averse if possible……..Eovaldi may throw 145 innings - maybe 75?? Mahle might throw 10 or 160? Gotta try & adjust. Add talented depth….prefer Eovaldi as a FA than trading young offensive talent, on the cusp of contributing, for pitching.

Last, Draft picks in baseball are not that special unless losing a number 1 or some really high significance. Then this pick only gives you the potential for a guy in a few years. Would like to see some success with this roster, as would we all.

 

37 minutes ago, Twinsoholic said:

JD-Twins keeps hoping the Twins will sign Eovaldi: “Sign Eovaldi for 3 yrs. (reality contract length)! Can’t sweat the compensation pick……..Maeda to Pen for added depth.”

In his 20 starts this past season, Eovaldi threw 109 innings. Why would the Twins spend big bucks on that kind of “production’” for a one or two or three year contract? Can he go deeper into starts consistently? Maybe. But is that a chance worth taking for the Twins at an inflated contract and at the cost of losing a draft pick? It is worth noting that Eovaldi remains unsigned by any MLB club. Do you suppose that could have something go do with the draft pick compensation and his low number of innings per start? If he can’t improve his innings per start, a team burns up its bullpen each time he starts a game. The Twins should continue to pass on him.

 

 

 

POTENTIAL STAFF:

Eovaldi - Mahle - Gray - Ryan - Ober - Varland - ???

Fulmer - Jax - Duhran - Moran - Megill - Thielbar - Lopez - Alcala - Maeda - ???

I think Fulmer & Eovaldi add stability & we can afford the spend vs. trading Arraez……or hoping someone trades a diamond in rough for Kepler for our pitching answer.

If we can trade (prospect - Kepler - Pagan) for some pitching help, great! Shouldn’t be our only path to adding proven arms.

[Doctor Gast]

I have my doubts about Eovaldi, I'd love Adames but MIL has said he's not for sale & the price will be very high. Glad you you didn't list any SS FA leftovers.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Eovoldi no, Smith yes, Hand yes.  Theilbar won't last forever so adding a lefty would be a good idea.

[Brett]

Not really excited about any of these guys. If you were going to get another lefty-hitting OF, I would have preferred Bellinger. $6m more, but plays CF well.

I’m afraid we might be done. Maybe Fulmer or another veteran reliever. Maybe we’re hoping to get 60 starts out of Mahle and Gray, I dunno.

Perhaps someone on the TD staff would like to take up the banner and write about “The best possible outcome for 2023” and give me something to hope and dream about during the holidays…