Joey Gallo Is A Land of Contrasts

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

The former Ranger, Yankee, and Dodger is perhaps the most statistically extreme player in all of MLB and that is what makes him a decent gamble for the Minnesota Twins.

Image courtesy of Rob Schumacher, USA Today

 

In the late spring of 2019, as temperatures rose in Texas and the night skies over Arlington were peppered with little white dots, a once-heralded prospect made an astonishing imprint on the game of baseball. You’d be forgiven for assuming that the increased heat was due to normal seasonal changes and that the little white dots were simply the stars in and around the Milky Way galaxy.

No, both phenomenon were simply the result of Joey Gallo’s bat. Coming off back-to-back 40 home run seasons with a combined 114 wRC+, Gallo peppered the skies of the American League West with 22 home runs, often sending them into near orbit. He also elevated his triple slashline to a blistering .253/.389/.598 (.987) resulting in an MVP-esque 144 wRC+.

Gallo was on track to more than double his fWAR (3.2) from the previous two seasons combined (5.9), but while his star burned hot and bright that summer, it ultimately went supernova after only 70 games thanks to a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist. He did not appear in a another game that year.

Since his ill-fated 2019 campaign, Gallo has largely fallen back to earth. He was named to the American League All-Star team in 2021 before being shipped to the New York Yankees—an experience Gallo would later refer to as “rock bottom”—and registered a career-high 4.2 fWAR, but has yet to post an average above the Mendoza line or hit 40 home runs in a season over the last three years. 

Looking at the stats, it’s pretty easy to see why Gallo was so successful in 2019. It wasn’t because he was striking out less or walking more—his K% and BB% more or less stayed steady with his career numbers—nor was it because he was hitting the ball harder or adopting a new approach at the plate. The primary driver behind his success was a towering .368 BABIP, a value 43% higher than his career average. 

Suffice it to say that the odds of Gallo ever putting together another 70-game stretch similar to the one in 2019 are slim, but he doesn’t need to slash anywhere near .250/.390/.500 (.890) for a full season to find success with the Twins. (To be clear, if he did, Gallo would very likely be an MVP candidate.)

Despite owning the highest strikeout rate in MLB history, Gallo has been 10% better than league average by wRC+ thanks to a fairly discerning eye at the plate as well as the aforementioned otherworldly power. Simply put, Gallo is a land of contrasts. 

Last summer he ranked in the 1st percentile in strikeout rate and Whiff% but in the 95th percentile in walk rate, which is consistent with his career numbers. He is also unlikely to bite on offerings that Statcast refers to as chase and waste pitches. He patiently waits for his pitch with such aptitude that he is worth positive runs even though he is, at best, 70/30 to hit pitches in the zone. (The MLB average zone contact rate is 82.0%. Gallo’s career number is 67.4%.) 

Gallo is the definition of a three true outcomes player. A laughably outrageous 59% of his career plate appearances have ended as either a strikeout, walk, or home run. In that sense, Gallo is Miguel Sanó on steroids. (A mere 54% of Sanó’s plate appearances resulted in one of the outcomes.)

However, what separates Gallo from someone like Sanó—and why Gallo was the first of the two to sign a deal this offseason—is that he provides near elite defense in the outfield. Although he ranked in the 19th percentile in Outs Above Average last season, Gallo had consistently ranked in the top 25% of outfielders since 2017. He has a cannon for an arm, topping out on some throws near 95 mph, and has the ability to get a good jump on the ball. Defensively, Gallo isn’t all that far behind Max Kepler, an athlete who is considered to be among the best defensive corner outfielders in the game.

So, basically, the Twins signed a corner outfielder that projects to be an amalgamation of some degree of Miguel Sanó’s offense and Max Kepler’s defense, which is a player well-worth a one-year, $11 million gamble. Steamer, one of the projection systems published on FanGraphs, projects Gallo to slash .188/.313/.397 (.710) with 19 home runs in 102 games next summer. That would give him a 107 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR, almost exactly a value of $11 million. 

The signing of Joey Gallo is not the type of move that cements a solid offseason for the Twins in isolation, but it does allow them to potentially be a little more aggressive on the trade market, particularly when dangling Kepler or perhaps Luis Arraez and/or Trevor Larnach. If the Twins are able to swap some of their existing pieces for impact starting pitching or a shortstop, the Gallo acquisition could be seen as a boon, especially since he has largely been able to remain healthy for his career. 

It’s also possible that Gallo never rebounds from his morbid 2022 and is DFA’d before the season ends. However, the bar is so low for his projected offensive performance and his defense is so reliably good that it would take quite the drop in production, perhaps even more so than last season, for the Twins to simply give up on him. 

 

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[RJA]

Interesting take.  I would point out that 2019 is a total outlier for virtually every player due to the "enhanced" baseball that year.  In 2019, Kepler hit 36 homeruns with an .866 OPS.  In the last two years combined, he has hit 28 homeruns with a combined OPS of less than .700.  I do appreciate Gallo's defense, and he might prove the last year and a half was an anomaly, but it looks like a desperate move to me. 

[mikelink45]

No - that is all I can say.  They are not bringing back the juiced ball and if it allows them to trade Arraez and Kepler then we have not only signed a ridiculous contract, but in essence have traded him for much better players. 

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

23 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

No - that is all I can say.  They are not bringing back the juiced ball and if it allows them to trade Arraez and Kepler then we have not only signed a ridiculous contract, but in essence have traded him for much better players. 

To be fair, Gallo had two 40 home run seasons before the juiced ball season.

[mickster]

This signing must be paired with a trade of Kepler/Larnach/Austin/Arraez   If not it makes no sense.   The shift ban will help Gallo and his ability to walk will be a bonus.   His K rate will annoy most like Sano did.   Arraez is one I don't want to see go the most, but his knees will shorten his career no doubt - we will have to let someone go we like, but that is the price to pay for #1 or 2 to slot into our rotation

 

[CRF]

I'd sure like to see him contrasting for some team other than the Twins!

[old nurse]

Gallo has hit a lot the last three years to the short right fielder. That position in theory ceased to exist. His batting average, in theory, should go up

[BobAzar]

Just came to say, I love the simpsons reference in the headline...

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

To be fair, Gallo had two 40 home run seasons before the juiced ball season.

To be even more fair - those were 2018 - 19.  4 - 5 years ago.  I can't buy into it.

 

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

To be even more fair - those were 2018 - 19.  4 - 5 years ago.  I can't buy into it.

 

He hit 38 in 2021. That was 2 years ago. Not saying we should expect 40 homeruns, but he was not a juiced ball product, and was hitting for extreme power just 2 years ago.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins were decimated by OF injury last year. At the end of the year, they were playing their 6-8th choices all at the same time. This isn't necessarily about trading someone. It might be about depth. 

It's a gamble on a guy that has been great, even if you don't like how he was great. I've flipped on this completely the more I think about it. Given what was left in free agency, this makes sense for a mid market team. 

[chpettit19]

I hope nobody was just watching MLB Network. JP Morosi, Matt Vasgersian, and Harold Reynolds just gave their predictions for Gallo's BA/HR/RBI totals for 2023. .230/30+/80+ was more or less the prediction. They were all big believers in his exit velo on the pull side leading to a jump in BA with the new shift rule.

I'm sure they're just Twins apologists so are being biased.

[USAFChief]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I hope nobody was just watching MLB Network. JP Morosi, Matt Vasgersian, and Harold Reynolds just gave their predictions for Gallo's BA/HR/RBI totals for 2023. .230/30+/80+ was more or less the prediction. They were all big believers in his exit velo on the pull side leading to a jump in BA with the new shift rule.

I'm sure they're just Twins apologists so are being biased.

Harold Reynolds? Well that settles it.

[USAFChief]

This is a moronic waste of $11m that should have been spent to improve the team.

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

This is a moronic waste of $11m that should have been spent to improve the team.

 

Well that settles it.

[lukeduke1980]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Twins were decimated by OF injury last year. At the end of the year, they were playing their 6-8th choices all at the same time. This isn't necessarily about trading someone. It might be about depth. 

This crossed my mind too that FO might be thinking you can never have too many outfielders after Celestino  Cave Contreras became the regulars 

[Trov]

If Gallo can play elite defense, and as long as his HR are timely, then I will take it. It increases the chance Kepler gets dealt, or it may be he will more so be used in RF and slide Kepler to CF when Buxton gets hurt. I think there may be some hope with the anti shift rules Gallo may increase BABIP, which I doubt will happen.

[Doctor Gast]

I believe Gallo isn't a clutch hitter, when you need him hit a HR, he'll SO. NYY wrecked the little good that he had by stressing  launch angle & etc., The hope for MN straightening him out is nil because MN has the same philosophy. His BA should improve but he'll be taking up space of a Twin that needs it. 6 corner OF LH bat is lunacy even if you plan to trade some of them.

[Kipp35]

This is simply ridiculous! Had to let Sano go (which I agree) because he struck out just too often! Sano is a career .234 hitter with 162 HR's (over 8 years) making $9mm. We turn around (after not signing Correa) and give $11mm to a career .199 hitter with 177 HR's (over 8 years)... WTF? Ok, so we say he is a gem defensively, but then this article stats he is behind Kepler, athletically, who we are rumored to be trading and is making $6.75... WTF? Small market club making poor team decisions and even worse financial decisions.

If we wanted to have a guy that strikes out all the time but occasionally goes deep, we could have saved $2mm and kept Sano. If we want a defensive gem in the outfield, we could keep the more athletic Kepler and save $4.25mm. Who also bats a career .232 with a 129 HR's (over 8 years). Am I supposed to be turned on as a fan that Gallos HR's may be more towering than Sano's, or is that I should admire how Gallo can make plays in the outfield that Kepler could make? All three have played 8 seasons in the majors. None have impressive stat lines, but one gets $11mm to do it for the Twins..

The only way I say this is an okay deal, is if Gallo is looked at as the injury replacement for Buxton this season. Can he play CF? We NEED someone who can 100+ games in CF when Buxton goes down... again.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

 Kepler, athletically, who we are rumored to be trading and is making $6.75... 

 

FYI, Max Kepler is making $8.5 million in 2023.

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

He hit 38 in 2021. That was 2 years ago. Not saying we should expect 40 homeruns, but he was not a juiced ball product, and was hitting for extreme power just 2 years ago.

Everyone hit HRs that year

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Everyone hit HRs that year

In 2021? Here's league HR totals for 2016-2022 by year, skipping 2020.

2016- 5610
2017- 6105
2018- 5585
2019- 6776
2021- 5944
2022- 5215

I don't think 2021 is too far outside the norm there. He was tied for 10th in baseball in homeruns that year. I don't know that "everyone hit HRs that year" is really fair as a dismissal of being 10th in baseball in HRs in a season that didn't even top 2017's league HR total.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

In 2021? Here's league HR totals for 2016-2022 by year, skipping 2020.

2016- 5610
2017- 6105
2018- 5585
2019- 6776
2021- 5944
2022- 5215

I don't think 2021 is too far outside the norm there. He was tied for 10th in baseball in homeruns that year. I don't know that "everyone hit HRs that year" is really fair as a dismissal of being 10th in baseball in HRs in a season that didn't even top 2017's league HR total.

Logic is out the window about Gallo. Good luck changing anyone's mind (mine and at least two others have changed, so it isn't a lost cause). 

I have no idea if he's going to rebound, but he's much better than people on this board are giving him credit for.

[bloomwcjkl]

I'd rather give Taylor Rogers $11 million over 2 years. I know Rogers won't sign for $5.5 million.

I'm sure we are not done with head scratching moves.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Logic is out the window about Gallo. Good luck changing anyone's mind (mine and at least two others have changed, so it isn't a lost cause). 

I have no idea if he's going to rebound, but he's much better than people on this board are giving him credit for.

I feel like I'm coming across as loving this signing or something when all I'm trying to do is show that he was a really good player just 2 years ago. I don't love the deal, but this idea that he's been useless his whole career simply isn't correct.

Gallo was 10th in baseball in HRs in 2021. Right alongside names like Judge (39), Olson (39), Devers (38), Ramirez (36), Alonso (37), Stanton (35), Harper (35). I know that doesn't make up for all the Ks, and the walks don't make up for the low BA, but top 10 in HRs, and gold glove defense, is something it's ok to give him credit for.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I feel like I'm coming across as loving this signing or something when all I'm trying to do is show that he was a really good player just 2 years ago. I don't love the deal, but this idea that he's been useless his whole career simply isn't correct.

Gallo was 10th in baseball in HRs in 2021. Right alongside names like Judge (39), Olson (39), Devers (38), Ramirez (36), Alonso (37), Stanton (35), Harper (35). I know that doesn't make up for all the Ks, and the walks don't make up for the low BA, but top 10 in HRs, and gold glove defense, is something it's ok to give him credit for.

I feel like this is me on this site every day. I don't love all their moves, but they aren't all fireable offenses and the worst thing to happen to MN sports since (I won't name that for everyone's sake).

[DocBauer]

After a lot or reading, listening, and contemplating, I have somewhat changed my position on Gallo.

To be clear, I wouldn't have made this move, regardless if the Twins move/moved Kepler or not. I mean, we're looking for both to rebound in some fashion in 2023 right? Kepler has LOST all power for whatever reason. But at least he doesn't strike out at the highest pace in ML history...or recent history...and if he finds his power again...wherever he lost it...he might be the better all around player. But I can see the Twins playing the "change of scenery" card for both of them; move Kepler for something and bank on Gallo returning to previous form.

I like that Gallo is a find defender who can play all 3 OF spots and some 1B. I like that he's still a dangerous power threat. So again, I've somewhat changed my stance on this move. Time for that aforementioned change of scenery. 

BUT, I WOULD HAVE brought in the best RH bat I liked and trusted in Larnach and Wallner (and Gordon) along with him and not made this move. But then again, considering the CRAZY injury situation last season, OK, keeping a LH veteran is not such a bad idea. 

I still don't think I would have done this deal.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

After a lot or reading, listening, and contemplating, I have somewhat changed my position on Gallo.

To be clear, I wouldn't have made this move, regardless if the Twins move/moved Kepler or not. I mean, we're looking for both to rebound in some fashion in 2023 right? Kepler has LOST all power for whatever reason. But at least he doesn't strike out at the highest pace in ML history...or recent history...and if he finds his power again...wherever he lost it...he might be the better all around player. But I can see the Twins playing the "change of scenery" card for both of them; move Kepler for something and bank on Gallo returning to previous form.

I like that Gallo is a find defender who can play all 3 OF spots and some 1B. I like that he's still a dangerous power threat. So again, I've somewhat changed my stance on this move. Time for that aforementioned change of scenery. 

BUT, I WOULD HAVE brought in the best RH bat I liked and trusted in Larnach and Wallner (and Gordon) along with him and not made this move. But then again, considering the CRAZY injury situation last season, OK, keeping a LH veteran is not such a bad idea. 

I still don't think I would have done this deal.

 

 

Gallo has a career OPS of 770 against LH pitching.  Is there anyone available that's better against LH pitching.  Can they play corner OF / CF and 1B.  Keep in mind a 1 year contract is quite advantageous when you have prospects knocking at the door.

[chinmusic]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I believe Gallo isn't a clutch hitter,

Some say there is no such thing. (just don't tell David Ortiz)

[Steve71]

I will say that if they hang on to Kepler, an OF consisting of Gallo-Buxton-Kepler would be very strong defensively, probably the best in MLB. And with fly ball pitchers like Ryan, that is no small thing.