Twins Need a Minnesota Miracle

[roger]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd guess the extra $65 million he got from the Giants played a pretty big role...

I am beginning to wonder how smart Boras really is?

Carlos is going to collect $65M more from the Giants, yes.  But the California top tax rate is 13.3%, whereas Minnesota is 9.85%.  Yes, Minny is among the highest, but California is the highest.  And that extra 4.45% (over $15M) is no longer deductible on your FED return.  Add the fact that over 35% of the $65M will go to the FEDS, and another +$22M is gone.  So after calculating the tax effect, the difference in Carlos' pocket is a mere $27M or so.

Now add the cost of living in SFO compared with the Twin Cities and the difference is even smaller.  Gotta believe that he could get that proverbial mansion out on Lake Minnetonka for $3-$4M.  I believe $3-$4M in SFO gets you something a little nicer than a fixer upper.  Expect a comparable house is gonna cost him at least $10M.  Also expect the cost of buying something from the Dior store in downtown SFO is going to be higher as will all his clothes which is taxed in California.

If he really meant he liked it here and wanted to stay, he may end up regretting he or his agent's need for the biggest, splashiest contract.  

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, roger said:

I am beginning to wonder how smart Boras really is?

Carlos is going to collect $65M more from the Giants, yes.  But the California top tax rate is 13.3%, whereas Minnesota is 9.85%.  Yes, Minny is among the highest, but California is the highest.  And that extra 4.45% (over $15M) is no longer deductible on your FED return.  Add the fact that over 35% of the $65M will go to the FEDS, and another +$22M is gone.  So after calculating the tax effect, the difference in Carlos' pocket is a mere $27M or so.

Now add the cost of living in SFO compared with the Twin Cities and the difference is even smaller.  Gotta believe that he could get that proverbial mansion out on Lake Minnetonka for $3-$4M.  I believe $3-$4M in SFO gets you something a little nicer than a fixer upper.  Expect a comparable house is gonna cost him at least $10M.  Also expect the cost of buying something from the Dior store in downtown SFO is going to be higher as will all his clothes which is taxed in California.

If he really meant he liked it here and wanted to stay, he may end up regretting he or his agent's need for the biggest, splashiest contract.  

It's a little more complicated than that since he's not paid 100% of his salary in California or Minnesota. The taxes are based on where he plays his games. So still more being with the Giants since he'll play most of his games in the state of California, but it's a little more complicated than straight up MN vs CA. And I'm sure he is able to buy his Dior in whichever state he likes at this point.

It's not just his and his agent's need for the biggest contract, it's also the MLBPA's. They would not be super happy with the best SS in baseball signing for $65 million less than he could have. There's a not-insignificant amount of pressure put on all the players to "help" the future players by taking what they can and continuing to push salaries higher and higher.

[saviking]

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

In my mind, the left side of the infield has gone from a strength to a glaring weakness. I question whether Miranda will stick at 3B, and if not, what is plan B?  Moving on from Urshela could be the the worst decision the front office makes this off-season. I guess there's time to address this, but teams aren't going to just give away a quality third baseman.

Yes, Miranda may have to wind up at first when all is said and done. But looking past this year I could see both Lewis and Lee manning our left side ..

[rickyriolo]

I would have paid extra to see an infield of Lee-Correa-Lewis. But now Miranda-Farmer-Polanco not so much 

[tony&rodney]

Happy Holidays Seth.

A miracle, indeed,  is the only cure for our woeful Twins.

[Wizard11]

A number of fans have listed their view of the 4-5 free agents we should still sign.  Given that the roster is already at 40 who exactly gets dropped to accommodate Andrus, Eovalvdi, Duval, Mancini, Roger’s, etc?  At this point in the season each FA nudges someone out.  We still have not heard who will lose their roster spot for the Gallo signing.  I would guess barring a trade it will be Contreras.  

After the Judge and Turner signings the Twins should have been able to realize the market had spoke and that plan A was highly improbable.  Even most fans could see that.  That was the moment to rapidly pivot and pursue other free market talent.

I have been amused by the notion that the FO and ownership were “pretending” to chase Correa only as a PR move.  If that is the case they clearly suck at PR.  Keep Pagan, Sign Gallo, trade Arraez?  PR?  They are lousy at it.  

 

 

[ashbury]

The football analogy doesn't provide me much hope. By this point in the Twins off-season, the majority of players who could get the needed touchdowns are now off the field and enjoying their bye-weeks or whatever; Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, etc.

I'm no boxer, but I'll go with a boxing analogy instead.  "Everyone has a plan, until you're punched in the mouth."  The Twins had a plan, namely that Correa was so enamored of them that for once they would merely need to get "close" in terms of dollars offered.  Then late in the last round the Giants punched them in the mouth, and they apparently had no idea just how hard a punch it could be. 

I didn't serve in the military either, but how about a Donald Rumsfeld military analogy.  The Twins had a plan, but couldn't execute, because the plan didn't accurately account for a known-unknown.  This wasn't some unknown-unknown, like a Japanese team swooping in and making Correa an offer to play in their league.  The Giants were a known-unknown, and part of our FO's job is to get it right.  "What will you do if the Dodgers or some other rich team offers $350M?"  Apparently their answer was "well, we'll pivot to....", only when the moment of truth came their known-unknown came at the wrong time.  The timing was another known-unknown which they didn't get right.

I wouldn't have gotten it right either, I'm pretty sure.  At least not at the outset.  But when the dominoes started falling, namely Trea Turner getting $300M, they needed to rethink their entire strategy, and I think I would have.  The Phillies actually delivered the punch in the mouth, and the Twins seemingly didn't react.  The Giants merely delivered the knockout blow with a folding chair to the head.   I guess that's tag-teaming, so now I'm talking Pro Rasslin'.

[roger]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

It's a little more complicated than that since he's not paid 100% of his salary in California or Minnesota. The taxes are based on where he plays his games. So still more being with the Giants since he'll play most of his games in the state of California, but it's a little more complicated than straight up MN vs CA. And I'm sure he is able to buy his Dior in whichever state he likes at this point.

It's not just his and his agent's need for the biggest contract, it's also the MLBPA's. They would not be super happy with the best SS in baseball signing for $65 million less than he could have. There's a not-insignificant amount of pressure put on all the players to "help" the future players by taking what they can and continuing to push salaries higher and higher.

Got a question as I haven't dealt with multi-state tax returns for several decades.  In some states it used to be you filed and paid your tax in the other states.  Then you filed in your home state and paid tax on your entire income at their rate, but received a credit for the dollars paid to the other states.  So yes, it is complicated.  Maybe there are some tax guys on TD today that can clarify if this is still done and if so, in California?

[Brandon27]

It be a miracle if the owners stop being cheap 

[nicksaviking]

Can't really compare the Twins and Vikings. The Vikings can and do sign top free agents. And since the Twins and the other lower revenue teams don't demand and maneuver for full broadcast revenue sharing and firm salary caps and floors, they too are at fault for the inequity.

Also, the Vikings are capable of drafting and developing top players at their respective positions. The Twins need to start doing that before relying on luck, fate, miracles or whatever they want to call them.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

Can't really compare the Twins and Vikings. The Vikings can and do sign top free agents. And since the Twins and the other lower revenue teams NEVER demand full broadcast revenue sharing and firm salary caps and floors, they too are at fault for the inequity.

Also, the Vikings are capable of drafting and developing top players at their respective positions. The Twins need to start doing that before relying on luck, fate, miracles or whatever they want to call them.

I would add, from my perspective at least, I believe Viking ownership wants, above all, to win a Super Bowl. It's their overriding priority, and they will do whatever they can to get there. Return on investment is nice, but won't get in the way of football. They'd unhesitatingly incur operating losses to win. 

I absolutely do not believe Twins ownership would do the same. Profit is priority 1.

They have that right, of course, but it's no wonder to me the Twins are a distant second to the Vikings in fan interest. 

[RJA]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

It's a little more complicated than that since he's not paid 100% of his salary in California or Minnesota. The taxes are based on where he plays his games. So still more being with the Giants since he'll play most of his games in the state of California, but it's a little more complicated than straight up MN vs CA. And I'm sure he is able to buy his Dior in whichever state he likes at this point.

It's not just his and his agent's need for the biggest contract, it's also the MLBPA's. They would not be super happy with the best SS in baseball signing for $65 million less than he could have. There's a not-insignificant amount of pressure put on all the players to "help" the future players by taking what they can and continuing to push salaries higher and higher.

Another point in all of this is his non-salary income opportunities.  The market exposure he will get playing in California is much greater than that of Minnesota. Therefore, his "supplementary" income will be much larger in SF than it would have been in Minnesota.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Are we, though? It's not just about not getting Correa. As much as I and others wanted the Twins to sign him, they lost out on other possible signings along the way, and not just at SS. That's what the issue is. Not just that we didn't sign Correa, but we didn't get the pitcher or a different SS or a RP. So who is left to sign? All the after thoughts, all the Happs and Shoemakers. Yes, we can trade, but trade who? Lewis? Lee? To get a frontline anyone, the conversation begins with them, maybe both of them. We have little else in our system that will bring back the difference maker.

Plus Lewis and Lee may prove to become difference makers themselves. We just don't know yet.

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I would add, from my perspective at least, I believe Viking ownership wants, above all, to win a Super Bowl. It's their overriding priority, and they will do whatever they can to get there. Return on investment is nice, but won't get in the way of football. They'd unhesitatingly incur operating losses to win. 

I absolutely do not believe Twins ownership would do the same. Profit is priority 1.

They have that right, of course, but it's no wonder to me the Twins are a distant second to the Vikings in fan interest. 

I don't know that I'd go that far giving them credit. NFL teams HAVE to spend a certain amount, so it seems that there'd be zero incentive to NOT try to win a Super Bowl.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, roger said:

I am beginning to wonder how smart Boras really is?

Carlos is going to collect $65M more from the Giants, yes.  But the California top tax rate is 13.3%, whereas Minnesota is 9.85%.  Yes, Minny is among the highest, but California is the highest.  And that extra 4.45% (over $15M) is no longer deductible on your FED return.  Add the fact that over 35% of the $65M will go to the FEDS, and another +$22M is gone.  So after calculating the tax effect, the difference in Carlos' pocket is a mere $27M or so.

Now add the cost of living in SFO compared with the Twin Cities and the difference is even smaller.  Gotta believe that he could get that proverbial mansion out on Lake Minnetonka for $3-$4M.  I believe $3-$4M in SFO gets you something a little nicer than a fixer upper.  Expect a comparable house is gonna cost him at least $10M.  Also expect the cost of buying something from the Dior store in downtown SFO is going to be higher as will all his clothes which is taxed in California.

If he really meant he liked it here and wanted to stay, he may end up regretting he or his agent's need for the biggest, splashiest contract.  

Also Boras will most certainly be getting a percentage of the additional 65 million, so that further depletes Carlos' share that goes into his pocket. Plus the SF deal was for a longer period of time and we all know money today is worth more than the same amount of money tomorrow. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

The football analogy doesn't provide me much hope. By this point in the Twins off-season, the majority of players who could get the needed touchdowns are now off the field and enjoying their bye-weeks or whatever; Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, etc.

I'm no boxer, but I'll go with a boxing analogy instead.  "Everyone has a plan, until you're punched in the mouth."  The Twins had a plan, namely that Correa was so enamored of them that for once they would merely need to get "close" in terms of dollars offered.  Then late in the last round the Giants punched them in the mouth, and they apparently had no idea just how hard a punch it could be. 

I didn't serve in the military either, but how about a Donald Rumsfeld military analogy.  The Twins had a plan, but couldn't execute, because the plan didn't accurately account for a known-unknown.  This wasn't some unknown-unknown, like a Japanese team swooping in and making Correa an offer to play in their league.  The Giants were a known-unknown, and part of our FO's job is to get it right.  "What will you do if the Dodgers or some other rich team offers $350M?"  Apparently their answer was "well, we'll pivot to....", only when the moment of truth came their known-unknown came at the wrong time.  The timing was another known-unknown which they didn't get right.

I wouldn't have gotten it right either, I'm pretty sure.  At least not at the outset.  But when the dominoes started falling, namely Trea Turner getting $300M, they needed to rethink their entire strategy, and I think I would have.  The Phillies actually delivered the punch in the mouth, and the Twins seemingly didn't react.  The Giants merely delivered the knockout blow with a folding chair to the head.   I guess that's tag-teaming, so now I'm talking Pro Rasslin'.

A quote which comes to mind is from the long gone cartoon, "Pogo" : "We have met the enemy and it is us."

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, rv78 said:

I beg to differ. If they are "smart guys" they wouldn't need a miracle.

I agree with you rv78, Our gaping hole is SS that was left by Correa. Farmer doesn't do a good job hitting against RHPs and we need someone good at utility. We need a profiled SS that can hit RHPs to start the lion's share at SS. Farmer then can platoon at SS & cover utility.

But their redundant move of signing Gallo doesn't instill confidence in the fan base. The miracle is to see how they can transform this deal into a positive transaction (like water into wine). I don't mean if Gallo improves, I mean how to justify this redundant glut of corner OF lefty bats.

The other miracle I'm waiting for is management to change their mindset of ignoring our greatest pitching asset, the spot SP/ long relief. If this miracle happens that could lead to the greatest miracle of all- winning the World Series

[heresthething]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

The football analogy doesn't provide me much hope. By this point in the Twins off-season, the majority of players who could get the needed touchdowns are now off the field and enjoying their bye-weeks or whatever; Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, etc.

I'm no boxer, but I'll go with a boxing analogy instead.  "Everyone has a plan, until you're punched in the mouth."  The Twins had a plan, namely that Correa was so enamored of them that for once they would merely need to get "close" in terms of dollars offered.  Then late in the last round the Giants punched them in the mouth, and they apparently had no idea just how hard a punch it could be. 

I didn't serve in the military either, but how about a Donald Rumsfeld military analogy.  The Twins had a plan, but couldn't execute, because the plan didn't accurately account for a known-unknown.  This wasn't some unknown-unknown, like a Japanese team swooping in and making Correa an offer to play in their league.  The Giants were a known-unknown, and part of our FO's job is to get it right.  "What will you do if the Dodgers or some other rich team offers $350M?"  Apparently their answer was "well, we'll pivot to....", only when the moment of truth came their known-unknown came at the wrong time.  The timing was another known-unknown which they didn't get right.

I wouldn't have gotten it right either, I'm pretty sure.  At least not at the outset.  But when the dominoes started falling, namely Trea Turner getting $300M, they needed to rethink their entire strategy, and I think I would have.  The Phillies actually delivered the punch in the mouth, and the Twins seemingly didn't react.  The Giants merely delivered the knockout blow with a folding chair to the head.   I guess that's tag-teaming, so now I'm talking Pro Rasslin'.

Exactly this.  They had to game plan for the 300mill+ offer and the second the Turner contract was announced act on that plan B.  And when the Giants lost out on Judge they must have known who was gonna target CC.  I mean, even the medai figured that one out right?  They also had to know after all the talking they did with Boros they were looking to be in the neighborhood or beat that Lindor contract.  This isn't all clear only in hindsight either.  Given what inside info they have and supposedly now an army of analysts Falvey has hired none of this can be surprising to them and if they are surprised, well...it's time for a change.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So who's fault is it the Twins aren't one guy away?

I typically get the blame whenever someone doesn't go perfectly at my house. I might as well get tagged with this one if blame most be found. 

 

[Wizard11]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Got a question as I haven't dealt with multi-state tax returns for several decades.  In some states it used to be you filed and paid your tax in the other states.  Then you filed in your home state and paid tax on your entire income at their rate, but received a credit for the dollars paid to the other states.  So yes, it is complicated.  Maybe there are some tax guys on TD today that can clarify if this is still done and if so, in California?

Hi Roger, yes that is still how it works.  You essentially pay income tax on 100% of your income in your home state.  Correa will also pay state income tax prorata in the 20 or so other states he earns income in.  This total sum is then a deduction from his CA tax. 
 

The problem with making LT residence decisions based on state tax law is that tax laws are written in water.  For example FA’s that signed LT with a CA team in 2015 were probably shocked the next year when CA’s top bracket went way up AND that is was no longer federally deductible.  Their $200,000 per year property tax on their mansion was essentially no longer deductible.  In 2016 when their spouse became disillusioned with the reducing spend budget and divorced said player, the alimony was no longer deductible.  Tax rules are ever changing particularly for the highest paid employees.  Moreover they are W2 so no hiding of income in a 1099 structure 

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Well, but it was a difference maker. We shouldn't be in rebuild mode at this time. People usually rebuild AFTER they've already had success. We haven't and now we are rebuilding? And signing a Correa, or any big name, does attract attention and other players ... because it makes us look like we are really trying to compete. Okay, so, I'm not suggesting the the FO isn't trying, but, by staying away from the FA market, all we are left with is development and trades ... and we can't develop what we don't or no longer have because we've traded it all. We are backed into a very difficult corner and have made it that much more difficult to be competitive. So, in essence, we will remain in rebuild mode for how long? Haven't we essentially been in rebuild mode since 2013, except for a season or two or hopefulness? This is my problem. It's not just Correa. It's the inactivity on the FA market for frontline players. We need those to compete, as well as the others. The FO has chosen a path that makes it nearly impossible to go the distance. As a fan, that's what I want. They are still my team, I will still cheer them on. But the miracle would be a team that beyond reason just clicks and gets it done. That's a huge hope for a fan like me when hope is waning.

I don't think we should rebuild but we have articles suggesting that it's time to trade Sonny Gray, Mahle and Maeda. Not signing Correa seemingly is the reason the articles seem to be suggesting this. That is way too much weight being placed on the signing of Correa. 

We may not have Rodon at the top of our rotation but we have 9 starters that look like they could be decent. Let's see if they are. We have 13 starters currently on the 40 man and 12 if Ronny gets moved to the pen. Mancini might makes us better... Drury might make us better. We have some 40 man trade candidates. 

So... Correa has signed with Giants... What's next. 

I don't believe the roster is done. I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is completed. 

 

 

[roger]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Can't really compare the Twins and Vikings. The Vikings can and do sign top free agents. And since the Twins and the other lower revenue teams don't demand and maneuver for full broadcast revenue sharing and firm salary caps and floors, they too are at fault for the inequity.

Also, the Vikings are capable of drafting and developing top players at their respective positions. The Twins need to start doing that before relying on luck, fate, miracles or whatever they want to call them.

Not really apples to apples, Nick.  At least the drafting part.

The Vikings can draft players to fill positions in the higher rounds, because those players are expected to contribute year 1.  In baseball, even the top players often spend 4-5 or more years in the minors.  Its a lot harder to know what positions of need will be five years from now.  So in most cases, it makes sense to draft the best player available in baseball.

[roger]

7 minutes ago, Wizard11 said:

Hi Roger, yes that is still how it works.  You essentially pay income tax on 100% of your income in your home state.  Correa will also pay state income tax prorata in the 20 or so other states he earns income in.  This total sum is then a deduction from his CA tax. 
 

The problem with making LT residence decisions based on state tax law is that tax laws are written in water.  For example FA’s that signed LT with a CA team in 2015 were probably shocked the next year when CA’s top bracket went way up AND that is was no longer federally deductible.  Their $200,000 per year property tax on their mansion was essentially no longer deductible.  In 2016 when their spouse became disillusioned with the reducing spend budget and divorced said player, the alimony was no longer deductible.  Tax rules are ever changing particularly for the highest paid employees.  Moreover they are W2 so no hiding of income in a 1099 structure 

Thanks Wizard11.  So when all is said and done, the extra $65M is probably a minimal amount.  I wonder if Carlos is aware of that?  Gotta believe Boras would have people doing an analysis of the after tax difference.

[Battle ur tail off]

My take on it is, if they weren't/aren't able to sign real studs and difference makers, then just stand pat on it. 

Signing guys like Gallo and the like does nothing except take playing time from younger, cheaper players. And if they are going to trade, same things, get a stud or don't do anything. 

Twins have for years signed washed up, bargain guys and WASTED piles of money doing it. I would rather just see them stay away from these types of garbage bin players. Go all in for real studs, either in FA or trades and fill in the rest with your minor league systems.

The half in/half our way in which they have operated forever gets them nothing. I DON'T WANT B AND C LEVEL BALLPLAYERS in free agency. If you are looking for those types, find them in your minor league system. Quit wasting 30-50 million a year on retreads, old guys, or bounce back players. 

A person should make a list of all of these types the Twins have signed over the years and how much money they have wasted on them. 

Take that same 30-50 and get 1-2 studs. Quit with the "sign just to sign" guys. 

[tony&rodney]

Sometimes it is worth asking yourself ..... inconsideration of the recent history of the Minnesota Twins and their policies on signing free agents and taking into account the apparent strategies used by the current front office .... 

Where would you sign if you were a free agent? 

This is why the Twins need a miracle.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Battle ur tail off said:

My take on it is, if they weren't/aren't able to sign real studs and difference makers, then just stand pat on it. 

Signing guys like Gallo and the like does nothing except take playing time from younger, cheaper players. And if they are going to trade, same things, get a stud or don't do anything. 

Twins have for years signed washed up, bargain guys and WASTED piles of money doing it. I would rather just see them stay away from these types of garbage bin players. Go all in for real studs, either in FA or trades and fill in the rest with your minor league systems.

The half in/half our way in which they have operated forever gets them nothing. I DON'T WANT B AND C LEVEL BALLPLAYERS in free agency. If you are looking for those types, find them in your minor league system. Quit wasting 30-50 million a year on retreads, old guys, or bounce back players. 

A person should make a list of all of these types the Twins have signed over the years and how much money they have wasted on them. 

Take that same 30-50 and get 1-2 studs. Quit with the "sign just to sign" guys. 

Would you trade Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Trevor Mahle for Dansby Swanson?

[Wizard11]

@Roger, I agree on the net difference to Correa.  Unfortunately this is where a conflict of interest comes in with the agent.  Boras and Co get 5% of that $65mm delta.   No doubt he deemphasized net income and focused Correa more on the greater endorsement possibilities and “winning potential”.

I have worked with NFL and NHL players.  I have never worked with MLB players as the agents have insulated them from outside sources of input from the beginning of their professional careers.  The best agents do bring impressive resources but their guidance is influenced by their own agendas.  

[MABB1959]

Many things to be irate about. 
 

1. Not going after top FA’s while waiting on Correa. So what if we got a couple big names and  Correa. They could go over their expected budget for a few years without bankrupting the franchise.  They would for sure sell more tickets, jersey’s etc.  Doing this could eventually attract better player’s.  I think it is safe to assume most player’s in the prime of their career don’t want to sign with a team that can’t make a run for a World Series. 
2. Making it possible for fans to watch on TV.  We need to be able to get to know our team to love them. Many if not most average fans cannot afford to go to one game maybe 2 or 3, but a family of 4 shelling out $300 is not possible for some families and is sad that parents and kids can’t make many great memories. 
3. Bad bad bad trades.  We have been through quite a few seasons waiting for top prospects.  They either never get here, are injury prone by the time they get here and once they do we don’t do much to keep them. 

[Battle ur tail off]

33 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Would you trade Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, and Trevor Mahle for Dansby Swanson?

Maybe, would you?

The only reason I don't is because Mahle is the closest thing to a STUD we have on the mound - if healthy.

I would in a second trade that trio for either of the Brewer starters though...(of course it wouldn't be enough)

It doesn't matter, trades like that never happen anyway, not sure what you are getting at?

[nicksaviking]

51 minutes ago, roger said:

Not really apples to apples, Nick.  At least the drafting part.

The Vikings can draft players to fill positions in the higher rounds, because those players are expected to contribute year 1.  In baseball, even the top players often spend 4-5 or more years in the minors.  Its a lot harder to know what positions of need will be five years from now.  So in most cases, it makes sense to draft the best player available in baseball.

No doubt, but the Vikings seem to end up drafting more star players compared to the rest of their competitors than the Twins do compared to theirs.