Can the Twins Poach a Big Contract?

[Matt Braun]

A Carlos Correa-sized hole now exists in the Twins' payroll, can they look to the trade market to fill it?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Through trading, the Twins can avoid convincing players to sign with them and instead use forced employment to remove consent from the equation. Does Javier Báez actually want to play in Minnesota? Too bad! The Tigers wanted some prospects, so off you go. Remember to pack some blankets.

Let’s look at a few potential targets. This author would like to remind the readers that he did predict the Kyle Farmer trade, so either he’s more clairvoyant than previously understood, or the Twins front office solicits advice from a baseball fan site. For all our sake, let’s hope it’s the former. 

Javier Báez

The Rudy Gobert of baseball, Báez remains a slick shortstop whose offensive methods lead to existentially draining whiffs but ultimately competent batting results. Báez secretly lopped a few points off his strikeout rate in 2022, but his famous power disappeared as well, and the Tigers’ sudden free-fall from a decent 2021 leaves them holding a piece they may prefer to trade. How convenient.

Báez is likely to age poorly—have you ever heard of a free swinger who remained in the game well into their 30s—so swallowing five more seasons with a $120 million price tag is an overly aggressive attempt at a rebound. Still, he’ll probably be available, and the list of potential employees for the Twins shrinks daily.

Carlos Carrasco

In their efforts to sign every baseball player under the sun, Lex Luthor Steve Cohen’s Mets created an expensive, crowded starting rotation that may leave Carlos Carrasco out of the equation. This isn’t just speculation: the Mets are entertaining potential trades for their righty.

Carrasco joining the Twins would be a fun reunion of sorts; Derek Falvey oversaw Carrasco’s growth into an excellent yet oddly underrated starter during his extended, fruitful peak in Cleveland. Carrasco has remained effective, shedding a handful of injuries (along with a frightening bout of leukemia in 2019) on his way to a good campaign with enviable peripherals (3.45 xFIP, 20th best amongst starters with 150 innings pitches.) The soon-to-be 36-year-old will receive $14 million next season before hitting the free-agent market.

Usually, this author would fulfill the rule of threes and write about another fantastic third option that the Twins could acquire in a trade. That isn’t happening. Looking through the remaining “big” contracts yields a cruel reality: Minnesota has few options.

Teams have become wiser these days; George Steinbrenner handing out millions like Costco handing out free samples doesn’t happen anymore, and franchises are less likely to anchor themselves to a truly brutal contract. For the Twins, this isn’t great, as the remaining contracts are albatrosses that no one should touch—Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg —while the middle tier consists of reasonable deals that teams can afford to keep on their books. The pickings are slim. There's a difference between wisely absorbing a contract a team in a different situation would prefer to rid themselves of and tying an anvil to your ankle before taking a dip in the ocean.

There are a few deals, mainly Rockies players, but predicting anything with Colorado is like arguing with a cat. You aren’t going to win and everyone will think you look silly.

You could trade for Chris Sale and hope this is the year he rebounds, but it's best to leave headaches to your opponents.

Minnesota remains in an awkward position; if they desire to inflate its payroll through trades, its choices are a Russian Roulette of old, injured, or old-and-inured players whose glory days last existed before the pandemic. Any useful deal would be complex or non-sensical. It’s a tragic grave, but it’s one that they dug for themselves by focusing their energy on Carlos Correa.

Of course, they could always trade for Josh Donaldson.

See some overpriced players that the Twins should consider? Share them below. 

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[Mark G]

The Tigers might be willing to part with Baez for a package of, say, Ryan, Ober, and Duran.  It would be a little steep, but if we could maybe get their 12-15 rounds draft picks thrown in, it would even things out a little.  ?

[MTV]

Trade for both Devers and Sale. Have the Red Sox eat a portion of Sale’s Salary, plus you shouldn’t need to send a top-tier trade package that way. Devers slots in at 3rd for a year and you hope Sale Rebounds while still having money for either Swanson/Rodon

[Linus]

The idea that Falvey oversaw Carrascos growth is pretty laughable at this point. Why does this notion keep getting repeated?

[Heiny]

At this point I would not trade any of our top 10 prospects.  If you can trade Kepler, Arraez, Pagan or low level minor leaguers for the right package, I'd be ok with that.  But we need to see Lewis, Lee, Martin, Larnach, Kirilloff, Prielipp, Walner, Rodriguez, Woods Richardson, Varland, Julien et.al  develop in the Twins system.  It doesn't look like we will be serious contenders in '23,  but it's not time for a total breakdown of the system either.  I think these young guys all have better than average upside, so lets take another year to see how they come along and maybe Falvine can learn from this year, and do a better job next offseason.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm not giving up on this season.  I still believe trading Arraez+  for Lopez betters the team.  Also, they are always talking about being creative, now would be a good time to get creative.  There are 29  other teams out there.  Just don't be trading away any more of the future.  Building from within will be very necessary going forward with the crazy FA contracts.  Reguardless,  See you at the ballpark.

[Deadfan]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

The Tigers might be willing to part with Baez for a package of, say, Ryan, Ober, and Duran.  It would be a little steep, but if we could maybe get their 12-15 rounds draft picks thrown in, it would even things out a little.  ?

Hard no on that one. 

 

Im thinking we agree to take on his salary and they get a Couple B/C level prospects and thats about it. 

 

Unless they are eating the contract and trading him to us they arent getting starting pitching in return for him from us or anyone else. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

The Tigers might be willing to part with Baez for a package of, say, Ryan, Ober, and Duran.  It would be a little steep, but if we could maybe get their 12-15 rounds draft picks thrown in, it would even things out a little.  ?

The Tigers just fired the general manager who signed Baez.

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

The Tigers might be willing to part with Baez for a package of, say, Ryan, Ober, and Duran.  It would be a little steep, but if we could maybe get their 12-15 rounds draft picks thrown in, it would even things out a little.  ?

Nobody seems to be getting this reference, no Wolves fans on TD???

[HrbieFan]

Heck no on Baez, I'd rather run with a 45 yo Punto! The can I'd kick is Madison Bumgarner. He is no longer an ace, but he is still a solid bulldog on the mound 

[2wins87]

This is article is a little dispiriting.

Trading for Carrasco would be fine.  They have plenty of budget for his salary and it would cost zero prospect capital, so it would essentially be like signing him to a 1 year deal as a free agent, something this FO would love to do with every pitcher if they could.  What would he actually get as a FA though? Two years?

Baez is kind of similar to Swanson in that they would be good fits for a team with a hole at SS with absolutely no prospects potentially ready to take over soon.  Neither are really on the level of Correa though who is good enough to push a good prospect off the position or possibly into a trade.  This is where I think overpaying for Correa would have made sense while overpaying for Swanson really doesn't.  Baez wouldn't have to be locked up as long, but in the same vein, it seems like a mistake in logic and roster construction to fill a position with a solid regular on a long term deal just because you missed on your star franchise player there.  The middle infield depth in the farm system is pretty good.  Lewis should be ready by midseason, and Brooks Lee could absolutely be ready by opening day next year.

Rodon is currently the only guy I see where a significant overpay still makes sense.  He projects to be a #1 guy for at least a couple of years.  I think I am actually on the optimistic side when it comes to grading the team's pitcher development system, but they really only have a bunch of #2-#4 guys so I think it makes a ton of sense to supplement their development of cheap middle of the rotation guys with a true #1 that might cost a bit more than you'd like.

I recognize the risk with Rodon, but they've built the payroll flexibility to take a risk and there just isn't any of the potential impact left anywhere else.

[sthpstm]

This front office loves to use the word creative. If applied here, that could mean a 3 team trade where the Twins send a third team cash while the Yankees send That team Donaldson and send the Twins a player for that cash.

[GKuehl]

How about Blake Snell? He has 1 year left on his current deal for $16.6 million, and I could see the Padres wanting to get his money off the books. 

[DJL44]

I like the idea but I think I'd lean in harder to this idea. The Twins should be positioning themselves to sell off the roster in July. It's clear this isn't a contender as constructed. The good thing about negative value veteran players is their value will go up as their contract goes down. The Twins have $50M in the budget. They should be trying to get the large market teams to give them prospects to take on high priced contracts of players they no longer want on the roster. The Twins don't want long-term commitments so they should be focused on players with 1-2 years remaining on their deal. You found one perfect player in Carrasco.

Here's a list of players with <= 3 years on their contract playing for teams with high payrolls who are probably no longer wanted by those teams.

Player Name Team years remaining $$ remaining

Josh Donaldson Yankees 2 $37M

Aaron Hicks Yankees 3 $32M

James McCann Mets 2 $24M

Carlos Carrasco Mets 1 $14M

Chris Sale Red Sox 2 $55M

Hyun-Jin Ryu Blue Jays 1 $20M (injured and not tradeable by the deadline)

Yusei Kikuchi Blue Jays 2 $20M

Tommy La Stella Giants 1 $11M

Scott Kingery Phillies 1 $8M

 

All of these players will be worth more at the July trade deadline than they are currently worth. Those teams may be motivated to give the Twins prospects to take them off their payroll.

Example trades:

Jasson Dominguez, Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren, Clayton Beeter, Donaldson and Hicks for Max Kepler and Trevor Megill

Carlos Carrasco and Matt Allan for Emilio Pagan

 

 

 

[DJL44]

Baez has a 2023 opt-out. After seeing the SS market this offseason I'm guessing he opts out.

[nicksaviking]

I want big time players, not players who just happen to have big time contracts. I didn't like Baez as a free agent last year and I certainly don't like him any more now after the season he just had. Carlos Carrasco has to be about 60-years-old doesn't he?

*Most* teams aren't moving a big contract unless it's tied to a player they no longer want. The caveat to that is San Diego is likely due for a course correction in the coming future. But that future is clearly not this year. At some point they'll likely look to off load some of their big contracts even if the big contracts are still productive. I'd like to get in on that action. Until then, the Twins need to make their own fortune, not try to sort through other teams' overpriced garage sale fodder.

[Matt Braun]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

The idea that Falvey oversaw Carrascos growth is pretty laughable at this point. Why does this notion keep getting repeated?

I think it's the tricky fact that he was co-director of baseball operations and then assistant general manager during the period Carrasco pitched well, but who knows for certain 

[nicksaviking]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Baez has a 2023 opt-out. After seeing the SS market this offseason I'm guessing he opts out.

Not if he continues to hit like Kyle Farmer he won't.

[Doctor Gast]

57 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Carlos Carrasco and Matt Allan for Emilio Pagan

I was thinking more Carlos Carrasco & Luis Guillorme + $3.5MM for Emilo Pagan 

[Linus]

55 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

I think it's the tricky fact that he was co-director of baseball operations and then assistant general manager during the period Carrasco pitched well, but who knows for certain 

And we have no idea what his role was. How about the more pertinent information that under his watch the Twins have been miserable at developing homegrown pitching talent. It’s no coincidence that all our  best pitchers were obtained via trade. 

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was thinking more Carlos Carrasco & Luis Guillorme + $3.5MM for Emilo Pagan 

The Twins don't need cash. They have plenty of cash, especially if they unload their big contracts to contenders in July. Get prospects instead. Sending back Pagan was just to clear the 40 man roster spot.

[Mark G]

3 hours ago, Deadfan said:

Hard no on that one. 

 

Im thinking we agree to take on his salary and they get a Couple B/C level prospects and thats about it. 

 

Unless they are eating the contract and trading him to us they arent getting starting pitching in return for him from us or anyone else. 

Sorry, it was meant to be a joke.  I guess I better work on my delivery, huh?  ?

[Mike Sixel]

the only one I want is Tatis.....but I don't think the Padres need to move him yet. Other than that? Yuck.

I'd take back big deals to get better prospects when trading....but not just to get expensive players that aren't actually good that I want to keep.

[DJL44]

Josh Donaldson's contract is interesting. He costs $21M plus a $6M buyout of his 2024 $16M salary. However his luxury tax number is $25M. The cost to the Yankees is at least 30% more because they are at least $20M over the limit. 

Taking on Donaldson and Hicks would cost the Twins $57M in salary but save the Yankees at least $65M. They're both still useful big leaguers, just not stars worth the money they are being paid. The Twins could potentially flip Donaldson in July as well, which matches up nicely with Royce Lewis return to the team.

[Mike Sixel]

Donaldson is worse than Miranda.....what would you do with him? Plus, man, he'd be mad he was traded back to MN. 

Hicks is a glass pistol. 

The ONLY way you trade for either is if NY is giving you one of their top 3 prospects for nothing in return other than cost savings. 

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Donaldson is worse than Miranda.....what would you do with him? Plus, man, he'd be mad he was traded back to MN. 

Hicks is a glass pistol. 

The ONLY way you trade for either is if NY is giving you one of their top 3 prospects for nothing in return other than cost savings. 

How about we trade a dozen balls for Donaldson and a good prospect and then flip Donaldson while retaining 60% of his contract cost.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

How about we trade a dozen balls for Donaldson and a good prospect and then flip Donaldson while retaining 60% of his contract cost.

I'm ok with trading for a bad contract, if they don't plan on playing the player. I just think it unlikely. 

I wonder what Donaldson would be worth on the open market right now? He wasn't all that good last year. Maybe 8-10MM on a bounce back deal? So, ya, eating 60% sounds about right.

[Heiny]

Flipping Donaldson may not be as easy as you think.  I say stay away from both.  There's got to be better deals out there.  And if there isn't,  then no deal would be better!

[Major League Ready]

58 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm ok with trading for a bad contract, if they don't plan on playing the player. I just think it unlikely. 

I wonder what Donaldson would be worth on the open market right now? He wasn't all that good last year. Maybe 8-10MM on a bounce back deal? So, ya, eating 60% sounds about right.

Here is where I was going with this.  let's say they do trade Kepler.  They could end up substantially below their payroll capacity.  Spending the payroll room on basically buying a prospect or two would be nice.  

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

Here is where I was going with this.  let's say they do trade Kepler.  They could end up substantially below their payroll capacity.  Spending the payroll room on basically buying a prospect or two would be nice.  

I agree 100%. Though I'd cut Donaldson before he could fly here.

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Flipping Donaldson may not be as easy as you think.  I say stay away from both.  There's got to be better deals out there.  And if there isn't,  then no deal would be better!

Pay $12M of his salary and someone will take him.