What Now? 4 Pivots Following Carlos Correa's Departure

[Cody Christie]

The Twins lost out on Carlos Correa, so the club needs a backup plan to complete the 2023 roster. Here are four pivots the team can make following Correa's departure.

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota made contract offers to Carlos Correa that were well above anything the club had previously offered a free agent. Correa signed for 13 years and $350 million, an average annual value of $27 million. For Correa and his agent Scott Boras, it was important for Correa to sign the largest contract for a shortstop in baseball history. Reports had the Twins with a higher AAV but fewer years and a lower total amount. Fans can be upset about the team not going higher, but the team needs to have a contingency plan, and here are four pivots for the Twins. 

Pivot 1: Sign Dansby Swanson
When the offseason started, there were four All-Star caliber shortstops on the market. Correa became the third player to sign, leaving Dansby Swanson as the last man standing. Unfortunately, many teams are looking for an upgrade at shortstop, so the demand for Swanson has increased. Out of the other shortstops, Xander Bogaerts signed the smallest deal at 11 years and $280 million. Minnesota offered Correa more than that amount, so the team could pivot and offer Swanson a similar deal to Bogaerts. There have already been meetings between Swanson and the Twins, which can help with the initial negotiations. Swanson and Correa are very different players, and the Twins might want to pivot to one of the other options below. 

Pivot 2: Trade for a Shortstop
The Twins already traded for one shortstop this winter when the club acquired Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds. Farmer has served as the Reds' shortstop over the last two seasons while hitting .259/.316/.400 (.716) with an 89 OPS+. There are plenty of other trade targets that could be available this winter. Cleveland's Ahmed Rosario is one year away from free agency and can provide the Twins a bridge to Royce Lewis. The Yankees may be willing to part with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was with the Twins shortly last spring. Milwaukee has tough decisions with their core players, so the club might be willing to deal with someone like Willy Adames. At the trade deadline, the Twins made multiple moves that took pieces away from the farm system. Because of this, the team might not be as willing to part with prospects to acquire a shortstop. 

Pivot 3: Spend on Starting Pitching
Minnesota has question marks in the starting rotation, so adding a playoff-caliber starter can help the team. Carlos Rodon was considered the top free-agent starting pitcher, and he is still available. However, reports are that he is looking for at least six years, which is a significant amount for a player with his injury history. It also seems unlikely for the Twins' front office to sign any pitcher to that contract length. They had the opportunity with Jose Berrios and decided it was better to trade him than sign him long-term. Behind Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi is the next-best free-agent starter, as he had a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings last season. Michael Wacha is another free-agent option after pitching more than 124 innings in the past three full seasons. Those secondary names aren't as intriguing, so the Twins should stick with internal options. 

Pivot 4: Trade for Starting Pitching
Multiple Minnesota players have heard their names swirling in the rumor mill, including Max Kepler and Luis Arraez. One trade target is Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins. In 2022, he pitched 180 innings with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He posted a 174 to 53 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 108 ERA+. Lopez was arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2022, so his earliest free agency is 2025. Other possible trade targets include Cleveland's Shane Bieber, San Diego's Blake Snell, Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow, and Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes. Some players would require a hefty prospect package, including some of the team's top prospects. 

The Twins need to move quickly now that Correa has made his decision. Which pivot do you feel is the best move for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[bloomwcjkl]

The Twins have terrible luck signing "fading" pitchers. They are expensive and we don't have the lineup to help them squeak out decent seasons.

I'd rather see us stay in the $120 million range and go for youth. Let's see Austin Martin. Simeon Woods. Let them learn on the job. 

 

[FrankQuilicy]

id be very skeptical about the season if we started it with Farmer at ss. IMO the starting pitching can survive as it is, and depending on the health or should say rehab of Alcala, the bullpen should be okay too. I've lost faith in this FO. I should say I never had any. Getting Vasquez was a good move but we absolutely need a better shortstop than anyone on our current roster. Staying healthy could be a key, and Jeeze, are we really going into 2023 with Pete Mackey as a pitching coach? YIKES

[Nashvilletwin]

Well, when you put it that way….

Face it, unless option 1 comes to fruition, the Twins are in a big hole for ‘23.

There is no need to go long a top starter with the lineup we are projected to have in ‘23. So don’t waste the big bucks now and certainly do not deplete further our dwindling prospect list.

Maybe we could move Kepler for IKF, but that is hardly a needle mover.

Even with signing CC, the overarching goal was to keep building for a wide open window starting as early as ‘24, while still having a shot in ‘23.

Swanson is the only realistic option that keeps that strategy alive.  If that doesn’t work, we just shouldn’t panic. Yeah, maybe add some sort of seat filler, but the key is to keep building for a new window with a new young, affordable core.

[EGFTShaw]

>> For Correa and his agent Scott Boras, it was important for Correa to sign the largest contract for a shortstop in baseball history.

Even I knew this.  I always looked at contract for C4 in this aspect because I know Boras.

It had to top Lindor's $341M.  I would have known, especially after XB's contract with the Friars, that this would be the case.

So, for the Twins it needed to be at LEAST $342M.  Maybe you are still outbid by someone who wants the over money, but a good case could be made that the savings in income tax (I think the percentage is in MN favor), AND proper investing of that difference since it would be a sunk cost in CA, would make up for the difference.

Also, MN has a far easier road to the playoffs than SF.

Good luck C4.  Glad we had you for a year.

Now lets get on with it.

[EGFTShaw]

14 minutes ago, bloomwcjkl said:

The Twins have terrible luck signing "fading" pitchers. They are expensive and we don't have the lineup to help them squeak out decent seasons.

I'd rather see us stay in the $120 million range and go for youth. Let's see Austin Martin. Simeon Woods. Let them learn on the job. 

 

Rodon is exactly fading, but I am nervous about signing him.

I am 285% with you on the youth.

Coaches have to Improve the players, (we didn't with Sano) and Players have to have the desire to Improve.

So, Kepler - wrong coaching?  One size coaching does not fit all.  Or no desire to improve the hitting.  I won't buy into the inability to improve.  He is never going to Out HR Judge, but dear God of the Northern Winter he can certainly hit better than he has.  Give me league average PLUS 5pts and with his defense.

Same with others.

[DJL44]

This team should not be trading away any more top prospect capital. Don't eat your seed corn. They have money to spend and should be looking to spend it. If they acquire players in trade they should be expensive veterans with little trade value who can help the team in 2023. Some examples:

Javy Baez has an opt-out after the 2023 season and is likely to use it after seeing what happened this winter. He might be available pretty cheaply from the Tigers. German Marquez could improve if you get him out of Denver. Kris Bryant would be a great fit for the Twins but I doubt you'll get Colorado to eat that contract already.

My favorite way to upgrade the rotation is still to use Jhoan Duran there. If they can make an ace pitcher out of Duran they'll have tripled his value.

I think they can upgrade the bullpen pretty cheaply. Relievers don't usually get 3 year deals, let alone 13 year deals. The best relievers are usually failed starting pitchers. Grab 5th-6th starters for nothing and convert them to bullpen guys.

[EGFTShaw]

6 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Well, when you put it that way….

Face it, unless option 1 comes to fruition, the Twins are in a big hole for ‘23.

There is no need to go long a top starter with the lineup we are projected to have in ‘23. So don’t waste the big bucks now and certainly do not deplete further our dwindling prospect list.

Maybe we could move Kepler for IKF, but that is hardly a needle mover.

Even with signing CC, the overarching goal was to keep building for a wide open window starting as early as ‘24, while still having a shot in ‘23.

Swanson is the only realistic option that keeps that strategy alive.  If that doesn’t work, we just shouldn’t panic. Yeah, maybe add some sort of seat filler, but the key is to keep building for a new window with a new young, affordable core.

You're talking me into Swanson being OK.✔️

I like Lopez, just not sure he moves the needle enough for me and how many prospects would it cost?

I might move prospects for one of the BrewCrew top starters.

[Karbo]

Not sure who's left for RH hitting OF, but I see that as another glaring hole.

[Reptevia]

Pivot #5:  Roll with what we have. They’re not going to (and shouldn’t) spend money just to spend.  Like it or not, it’s time to rebuild until there is a glimmer of hope that the window is opening again. It’s slammed shut with a big drift blocking it now. 

[DJL44]

Another veteran with a higher salary who could help: Manuel Margot of the Rays (there's your RH hitting OF). 

[PDX Twin]

21 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

(we didn't with Sano)

How about resigning Sano as a shortstop, where he started? ?

[EGFTShaw]

9 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

How about resigning Sano as a shortstop, where he started? ?

LOL - now THAT would be a sight to behold topping Hrbek stealing 2nd base. ?

[Nashvilletwin]

46 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

Coaches have to Improve the players, (we didn't with Sano) and Players have to have the desire to Improve.

100%. This is critical for small/mid market team success.  We have not had it and should not expect to with Rocco.

[Nashvilletwin]

32 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

Pivot #5:  Roll with what we have. They’re not going to (and shouldn’t) spend money just to spend.  Like it or not, it’s time to rebuild until there is a glimmer of hope that the window is opening again. It’s slammed shut with a big drift blocking it now. 

It’s the most realistic option and the truth. But it can be augmented:

Pivot 5: Roll with what we have but trade out our FO and Rocco for a new unit who can develop our young talent - not only in the minors, but also when they get to the Show,  Having that type of team leadership is how small/mid market teams can flourish. 

[EGFTShaw]

Just now, Nashvilletwin said:

100%. This is critical for small/mid market team success.  We have not had it and should not expect to with Rocco.

it's not Rocco in this case, although he hires the coaches.  Our last good hitting coach left after the Year of the Bomba Squad.

Our pitching coach was good for a couple of years and then left to greener bucks pasture at the college level.

I can't coach baseball, but I guarantee you I could have lifted Shaq's FT average by 10 percentage points over 1 summer.

That's the kind of coaching, make our players better.  You read about it with certain players, yet you can see countless individuals across all sports who do not improve.

we may disagree on the responsibility, but we agree on that it needs to be accomplished. ?

[Nashvilletwin]

5 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

it's not Rocco in this case, although he hires the coaches.  Our last good hitting coach left after the Year of the Bomba Squad.

Our pitching coach was good for a couple of years and then left to greener bucks pasture at the college level.

I can't coach baseball, but I guarantee you I could have lifted Shaq's FT average by 10 percentage points over 1 summer.

That's the kind of coaching, make our players better.  You read about it with certain players, yet you can see countless individuals across all sports who do not improve.

we may disagree on the responsibility, but we agree on that it needs to be accomplished. ?

Could be. But Rocco is at the helm. It’s his responsibility overall. Now, possibly one could excuse Rocco a bit on this front if he were a strong in-game manager. But he’s not.

You want to win as small market team? Better start with a manager/coaching staff that can get the most out of their players and be several games net positive over a season on in-game tactics/strategy. Rocco and his staff are neither. 

[twinkiesfan11]

Do Not sign Dansby Swanson. Not worth the contract he’ll likely get plus draft pick compensation plus blocking the Twins two best prospects. Correa would have been, Swanson no.

Make a competitive but reasonable offer on Rodon. If (when) they’re outbid, time to scale back with an eye toward 2024. Trading Gray, Maeda, possibly Mahle, Kepler to restock the minor league system. 

[Mike Sixel]

Another option? Blow up the roster. They've already dealt from the farm like crazy..... And their drafts are suspect. I think, not that I want this, the best option from a baseball perspective, is to blow it up.

[Blyleven2011]

Let the young players play the game ...

Take the talent and tap into that talent and make them better ...

But as some have already mentioned  the coaches seem inadequate to deliver this proposal to the players ....

[Doctor Gast]

I'm glad you didn't say, sign a FA  SS short term as a pivot option.

We had a much better chance to sign Correa than Swanson. FAs are too expensive I'd rather go with Lewis long term. That means I'd like to pivot on trading for short term SS. As I've stated a few times before., my choice is Luis Guillorme.

Now pitching? I agree with some that say we have enough, but with our present philosophy we are far short. Can we land Rodon? Do we want to land Rodon? Is Rodon already on his way to NYY? Not crazy with what's left. FA SPs contracts are ridiculously high.

Trading for SPs? I'm in favor of trading for Lopez. As I've stated before my 1st choice is a Kepler/ Marquez trade, CO is difficult to figure out even if this is a win/ win deal, they may balk. So Lopez may be our best option.

With the extra $ burning a hole in our pockets why not find a RH OFer power bat?

 

[Doctor Gast]

41 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

it's not Rocco in this case, although he hires the coaches.  Our last good hitting coach left after the Year of the Bomba Squad.

Our pitching coach was good for a couple of years and then left to greener bucks pasture at the college level.

I can't coach baseball, but I guarantee you I could have lifted Shaq's FT average by 10 percentage points over 1 summer.

That's the kind of coaching, make our players better.  You read about it with certain players, yet you can see countless individuals across all sports who do not improve.

we may disagree on the responsibility, but we agree on that it needs to be accomplished. ?

We had a chance to get Rowson back but they chose not act on him. Now he's some assistant hitting coach for DET. We don't want to coach players how to hit, we want to coach them to  try to hit moonshots. I think that's what they think what people want to come to the games to see, not win games.

[hof282011]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

You're talking me into Swanson being OK.✔️

I like Lopez, just not sure he moves the needle enough for me and how many prospects would it cost?

I might move prospects for one of the BrewCrew top starters.

 

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

Rodon is exactly fading, but I am nervous about signing him.

I am 285% with you on the youth.

Coaches have to Improve the players, (we didn't with Sano) and Players have to have the desire to Improve.

So, Kepler - wrong coaching?  One size coaching does not fit all.  Or no desire to improve the hitting.  I won't buy into the inability to improve.  He is never going to Out HR Judge, but dear God of the Northern Winter he can certainly hit better than he has.  Give me league average PLUS 5pts and with his defense.

Same with others.

Here's the way we get Rodon/Dansby. ONLY if none of the high spending teams dont want them. They wait for the Twins to make offer, then blow it out of the water. That's just the way it is. Rodon says he wants to play in NY. Dansbys buddy wants him in California. See ya. Make trades? For who, with what. After these deals the Marlins will expect a lot more then Keppler/Arraez. This team needs to focus on one thing each year. Pitching one year, positional players one year. Every year it's all over the map. Focus. Let's just wait another year for Royce Lewis. He's not young folks. It's to bad on him but how long do you wait. Right now this team has to many holes to be thinking playoffs.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Another option? Blow up the roster. They've already dealt from the farm like crazy..... And their drafts are suspect. I think, not that I want this, the best option from a baseball perspective, is to blow it up.

They are positioned to be the team everyone is calling at the July trade deadline.

[brockbesler]

Trade Larnach or Kepler and whatever else they need to Miami to get Lopez. Try to get Soler in the deal to lower the cost for the Twins. Then sign Benintindi. If there is room in the budget sign Swanson. Now you have some speed in the lineup and a couple guys at the top that put the ball in play well.

[EGFTShaw]

I must be BORED...?

Blow up the team?  What's there to blow up? You could trade a couple of pieces, but most of the pieces haven't had a chance to prove themselves and make the team worth blowing up.

Great article over on The Athletic regarding the value of C4's contract to SFG.  A lot of flames from SFG fans because of the remarks about BCrawford.  But that dismisses the value of C4 now.  Every one claims he will decline in 2-3 years...I see more Cal Ripken, Jr than I do anyone else.  Solid, smart, strong arm, good hitter.

I'm on record saying I like our youth players and let them play to see how good they are.
 

I find it amusing how many people state things as facts, X will happen...or Y will occur. 

But none of us can see the future.  No one, and I repeat NO ONE saw C4 coming here for one year.  No one saw the MN Twins setting the HR record for the year. 

I just can't fathom the negativity.  

It's Rocco's fault.
It's the Front Office fault.
It's the Owner's fault.
He will never be more than X WAR.
He will be injured more than he is healthy...and so on.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, EGFTShaw said:

I must be BORED...?

Blow up the team?  What's there to blow up? You could trade a couple of pieces, but most of the pieces haven't had a chance to prove themselves and make the team worth blowing up.

Great article over on The Athletic regarding the value of C4's contract to SFG.  A lot of flames from SFG fans because of the remarks about BCrawford.  But that dismisses the value of C4 now.  Every one claims he will decline in 2-3 years...I see more Cal Ripken, Jr than I do anyone else.  Solid, smart, strong arm, good hitter.

I'm on record saying I like our youth players and let them play to see how good they are.
 

I find it amusing how many people state things as facts, X will happen...or Y will occur. 

But none of us can see the future.  No one, and I repeat NO ONE saw C4 coming here for one year.  No one saw the MN Twins setting the HR record for the year. 

I just can't fathom the negativity.  

It's Rocco's fault.
It's the Front Office fault.
It's the Owner's fault.
He will never be more than X WAR.
He will be injured more than he is healthy...and so on.

Can I like this a second time?

[EGFTShaw]

1 minute ago, DocBauer said:

Can I like this a second time?

Why yes Doc Bauer, by your command here you go...✔️

?

[RJA]

There are no meaningful pivots left.  Bogaerts signed for 11 and 280.  Can you believe the Twins best offer for Correa was all of 5 million more than that?  What are the members of our front office smoking to think that would be anywhere near enough to get Correa.?  It is crazy to give Swanson a huge contract--there is a reason he is the last man standing.  He is a complimentary piece not a star.  Rodon will not come here, especially with no Correa.  Trading young players is like eating your young--why do that when you can sign free agents at zero cost of personnel?  I am now convinced that his FO and ownership will never do what is necessary to sign top tier free agents.  Right now, there is nobody but Buck on his healthy days, IF Rocco puts him in the lineup, that will bring people to the park.  It is going to be a rough year attendance wise.  Let's pray the young kids light it up!

[nicksaviking]

Trading for a starting pitcher would interest me. Zero interest in trading for a shortstop. Especially not one that's an even worse hitter than what the team already has.

As far as free agency goes, I only wanted Correa, Bogaerts or Rodon. If Rodon's not going to happen, free agency can be over for all I care. The team can take their lumps from the fans and media as they rightly deserve.