That’s it. I’m pretty much done with this front office.

[Major League Ready]

Just watched High Heat on MLB TV.  Russo went on a 5 minute rant about how dumb it was to give Correa 13/$350.  He said "The giants should have their heads examined".  He went on the say the last several years are likely to be very bad which of course many here have stated.  

[Irishman]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Just watched High Heat on MLB TV.  Russo went on a 5 minute rant about how dumb it was to give Correa 13/$350.  He said "The giants should have their heads examined".  He went on the say the last several years are likely to be very bad which of course many here have stated.  

I saw that, too.   

[Rigby]

An engaged ownership doesn't allow a Korn-Ferry to recommend their PBO. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree that if they are not going to compete they should trade the players you mentioned.  Cleveland / Oakland and Tampa have 10/10&9 ninety win seasons since 2000.   The closest team in the bottom half of revenue is the twins with 6.  The difference between Cle/Oak/Tampa is that those teams have been far more aggressive trading established players for near ready prospects.  Those teams generally produce nearly 50% of their WAR from players prospects acquired in trade for established players.  The twins have had virtually none until the arrival of Duran / Alcala and Celestino.  Of course, they are a year removed from the Berrios trade. 

Oaklands largest free agent deal was Billy Butler 3/$30M.  The biggest free agent signing for Tampa just occurred.  3/40M for Efflin.  Cleveland's is 3/60 Edwin Encarnación.

I use these teams as examples because they are the only teams in the bottom half of revenue that have been more successful than the twins.   I would cite examples of teams that employ the strategy you are promoting if they existed, but they do not.  You are assuming what strategy will be successful.  I am simply citing which strategies have been successful.

I have no idea what you are arguing. We both thought they had money to be aggressive the last two years. You said it. You also said they can next year. I'm really confused how we disagree.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Just watched High Heat on MLB TV.  Russo went on a 5 minute rant about how dumb it was to give Correa 13/$350.  He said "The giants should have their heads examined".  He went on the say the last several years are likely to be very bad which of course many here have stated.  

MLB Network’s version of Stephen A Smith isn’t the guy I’d take too seriously. He’s a shock jock. 

[Linus]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm less disappointed in not getting Correa than I am in how badly they got played by Boras. 

The Twins COULD have beat the Bogaerts deal as evidenced by the contract they offered Correa, but Boras purposefully had Bogaerts sign first so he could use the Twins to get a better deal for Correa. They should have seen through Boras' platitudes about them being real contenders and swimming in the ocean with the big boys. The Twins should have told him they were out on Correa from the onset and that they wanted the second best shortstop instead.

If Falvine are that naive / gullible then they should be fired right now.  Boras has one job: do the best he can for his clients. If our FO aren’t able to deal with that it ain’t Boras fault. 

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Just watched High Heat on MLB TV.  Russo went on a 5 minute rant about how dumb it was to give Correa 13/$350.  He said "The giants should have their heads examined".  He went on the say the last several years are likely to be very bad which of course many here have stated.  

Who cares what he thinks. It’s the market, deal with it or curl up in the fetal position. 

[nicksaviking]

44 minutes ago, Linus said:

If Falvine are that naive / gullible then they should be fired right now.  Boras has one job: do the best he can for his clients. If our FO aren’t able to deal with that it ain’t Boras fault. 

Agreed. Boras is not the bad guy.

[Danchat]

It's mostly indifferent to this. My confidence in this front office was lost over the second half of the 2022 season, and this offseason is just a sign that more is to come. Yeah, they'll spend more than $135M+, but it's going to be another 'eh' offseason. My issue with them has been their inability to turn prospects into MLB players, can't coach players up, and their inability to keep anybody healthy. We were promised a pitching pipeline, still hasn't panned out, and now the lineup looks like a liability for the first time in years.

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's largely not really a thing. Few players are signed and traded in the same year. Very few.

Just because it is "largely not really a thing" doesn't mean you shouldn't do it.

[Cap'n Piranha]

20 hours ago, FrankQuilicy said:

I dont fault them for not matching that offer to Correa. 13 years was asinine but... Have you ever met someone you just didn't like and you could mot explain why? After 6+ years i never liked Falvey OR Levine. After careful contemplation i think i now know why. Its because they come across as they are so much smarter than everybody( fans, media, other executives, players). When really all they are, are two boys in a Man's world. This is the first real responsibility they've ever had aside from carrying francona's bags and kissing jon Daniel's butt. No wonder the reds, a's and everybody else licks their chops when they come calling about a trade. Billy Beane outclasses them so bad.  What a joke.

It's super fascinating to me how many people on this forum dislike Falvine because of Falvine supposedly thinking they are the smartest guys in the room.  Would we prefer our FO not be the smartest guys in the room?

[Cap'n Piranha]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You are making my point.  We are not LA or NY.  Expecting a team that rans about 18th in revenue to outbid the top markets is bound to disappoint.   It's hard to win when other teams can double your spending.  Perhaps more to the point, you are expecting them to follow strategies that are the opposite of what has produced winning teams for mid and small market teams.  I have charted all of those successful teams for the past 20 years.  None of them followed the strategy you insist is imperative. Cleveland / Tampa, and Oakland have by far the most 90 win seasons in the mid and small tier.  They have not signed one $100M free agent among them in any of the 28 seasons they won 90 games.  You have beat this drum repeatedly but you are completely ignoring the facts / history in doing so.  

The Twins cannot compete with LA or NY on total payroll.  There is absolutely no reason they cannot compete with any team on any one individual player, especially when the Twins assiduously avoid future payroll constraints.  This FO seems to think that one individual player doesn't exist, because Correa certainly checks every box for type of player to commit large dollars to.  The Twins should not operate like Tampa/Cle/Oak because they are not those markets.  They can afford to sign a big FA here or there.

At the end of the day, the Twins will always have to rely mostly on development in order to be competitive, with an occasional foray into FA to fill a glaring hole.  I'm just about out of belief that Falvinelli can actually operate a regime that is capable of development.

[laloesch]

On 12/14/2022 at 12:21 PM, Major League Ready said:

If they are a 90 loss team without Correa we have much bigger problems than not signing Correa.

BINGO.  Short and to the point. Even with Correa last season this team still collapsed and missed the playoffs.  It is what it is.  Even if they had ponied up and signed him they likely aren't playoff bound unless the pitching staff takes a major step forward, and it would be even harder with Jeffries and whatever platoon guy they bring in behind the plate not to mention a bunch of unproven prospects in the infield and outfield aside from Buxton.  

Honestly this team needs to rebuild.  The current cast isn't gonna cut it. 

[laloesch]

36 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

 because Correa certainly checks every box for type of player to commit large dollars to.  The Twins should not operate like Tampa/Cle/Oak because they are not those markets.  They can afford to sign a big FA here or there.

I don't agree with that.  Besides the fact that Correa is a known cheater of the worst type, he's also been inconsistent at times, as well as injury prone in prior seasons.  Lower back injuries don't go away they plague you the rest of your life no matter what you do, trust me i know.  And as you approach your mid 30's and early 40's they become a nightmare reoccurrence particularly if it has to do with herniated discs, etc. 

I think the Giants made an insane decision.  Russo is correct in my opinion...100% correct.

[I wish the twins were good]

It seems clear we're stuck with them for at least one more season (or maybe half a season if the first couple months are embarrassing enough), but barring a surprise playoff run this year I think they should all be gone. Whatever success you want to point to in 2019, they were not responsible for a large chunk of that roster. It's entirely theirs now, and they are in as bad a shape as they've been in organizationally since the mid-2010s. They actually had better prospects to at least dream on in those years (Buxton/Sano). 

[RaoulDuke]

I have been hesitant to turn against the front office because I think they did a really good job initially of yanking the organization into the modern day. 

At this point however their track record just keeps getting worse.  Their strength is supposed to be developing pitching they drafted or acquired (Cleveland style) and finding cheap free agents they can get more out of.  So far in the positive they have Ryan and Duran as real successes, Ober/ Winder/ SWR/ Varland all have real promise, and they got a couple decent seasons from middle relievers by having them throw a ton of sliders. 

In the negative their drafting has been bad, they lucked into Lee and I liked the Petty pick but there are a lot of first round busts.  They keep taking the cheaper trade offers and getting injured guys back in return.  They haven't added any free agents that have worked out well, aside from them letting Correa use them for a year.  Hindsight is 20/20 and I was happy to see them go for it last year but the writing really was on the wall and it blew up in their faces.  Now the farm is depleted and they whiffed on the cleanest books off season they will ever have. 

If we are going to rebuild, and it looks increasingly like it, I would not want them to be the ones making the decisions.  Though its probably too late to avoid at this point.

/sad trombone

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

I don't agree with that.  Besides the fact that Correa is a known cheater of the worst type, he's also been inconsistent at times, as well as injury prone in prior seasons.  Lower back injuries don't go away they plague you the rest of your life no matter what you do, trust me i know.  And as you approach your mid 30's and early 40's they become a nightmare reoccurrence particularly if it has to do with herniated discs, etc. 

I think the Giants made an insane decision.  Russo is correct in my opinion...100% correct.

The end of the contract does not matter at all. Not even one bit. It is a way to spread out the cost. By inconsistent, you mean what? His worst year is 3.4 fWAR. That's his floor......

[gunnarthor]

I haven't posted much lately mostly because of work but also because the Twins are in a giant hole. There isn't a single move that fixes things. There isn't a "squint and things are ok" view left anymore. This is a bad team, poorly designed, with an incredibly bad pitching staff. They have some reason for optimism offensively, even without Correa. But the staff is so bad that they are doomed to another sub-.500 season and an aging core of hitters. The FO failed. 

There really isn't much left to do for 2023. If the Twins were smart, they'd try to build around Lewis, Lee, Martin and next year's pick. Trade Arraez to (say) Toronto for pitching, trade Kepler to clear room in the OF. See if there is a market for Polanco and let our young MI have auditions to play SS/2B. I like Julien a lot. But the Twins have almost no pitching. Most of our arms are the AAAA type. We have to find a lot of innings somehow but I don't see how we do it.

[Reptevia]

Boomer rant follows:  Like all the analytics minutia, every strategy employed by the wunder kids is based upon “potential “ outcomes. When those potential outcomes fail to materialize or the opposite happens, this FO is flummoxed, and there is no backup plan. Cue-scrambling to do “something “.   To look at the analytics of good players and to note that they have this and this and this in common is useful. To look at this other player who hasn’t been good but has most of the same common traits and then conclude that they are thus due to be good in the short term is poor logic. It is taking a very small set of data and making sweeping generalizations about future behavior and production. I don’t think approaching roster construction based on a fallacious premise is all that wise. Using this FO logic: the past 6+ years proves that lack of wisdom absolutely. 

[Major League Ready]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The end of the contract does not matter at all. Not even one bit. It is a way to spread out the cost. By inconsistent, you mean what? His worst year is 3.4 fWAR. That's his floor......

How does it not matter if a team is paying $30M/year for nothing for several years?  It does not matter today which is the only frame of reference many baseball fans can relate to.  It most certainly is an impediment for building a team during the years that contract is underperforming.  BTW ... This mindset will get your butt fired from a strategic role in a millisecond in the real world.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I haven't posted much lately mostly because of work but also because the Twins are in a giant hole. There isn't a single move that fixes things. There isn't a "squint and things are ok" view left anymore. This is a bad team, poorly designed, with an incredibly bad pitching staff. They have some reason for optimism offensively, even without Correa. But the staff is so bad that they are doomed to another sub-.500 season and an aging core of hitters. The FO failed. 

There really isn't much left to do for 2023. If the Twins were smart, they'd try to build around Lewis, Lee, Martin and next year's pick. Trade Arraez to (say) Toronto for pitching, trade Kepler to clear room in the OF. See if there is a market for Polanco and let our young MI have auditions to play SS/2B. I like Julien a lot. But the Twins have almost no pitching. Most of our arms are the AAAA type. We have to find a lot of innings somehow but I don't see how we do it.

I don't agree the staff is incredibly bad at all. It has a very nice floor. Unfortunately, the ceiling is too low, IMO.

I agree, I'd start over. I don't think the rebuild would be all that long, if Lewis is healthy and Martin is close to what many thought he was. 

Lewis, Lee, Martin, Miranda, Larnach, Buxton (part time) is a very good core. If AK is healthy and Wallner can DH, great! Julien might be a 2B if you are lucky (or DH with Wallner in right). I see some good stuff.

I also like the SP core, as numbers 3-5 pitchers. I don't see the ace type, though I might, might, move their best RP to starter and see......

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, laloesch said:

I don't agree with that.  Besides the fact that Correa is a known cheater of the worst type, he's also been inconsistent at times, as well as injury prone in prior seasons.  Lower back injuries don't go away they plague you the rest of your life no matter what you do, trust me i know.  And as you approach your mid 30's and early 40's they become a nightmare reoccurrence particularly if it has to do with herniated discs, etc. 

I think the Giants made an insane decision.  Russo is correct in my opinion...100% correct.

Maybe, just maybe, a professional athlete with 8 figures of net worth playing for an organization with annual revenues well into 9 figures can secure better medical care than anonymous posters on a Twins message board.

The decision was not about years 8/10 to 13, which everyone knows will be an overpay.  But that's the cost to get a borderline MVP candidate for years 1-5/7 without having to hit a near $40M AAV.  Will the Giants regret this contract?  Possibly, if Correa does indeed struggle with injuries.  But if he puts up 25-35 WAR in the next 6 years, and leads them to a title?  They'll be more than happy to pay him for 7 more years as a team leader/elder statesman in the clubhouse.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I haven't posted much lately mostly because of work but also because the Twins are in a giant hole. There isn't a single move that fixes things. There isn't a "squint and things are ok" view left anymore. This is a bad team, poorly designed, with an incredibly bad pitching staff. They have some reason for optimism offensively, even without Correa. But the staff is so bad that they are doomed to another sub-.500 season and an aging core of hitters. The FO failed. 

There really isn't much left to do for 2023. If the Twins were smart, they'd try to build around Lewis, Lee, Martin and next year's pick. Trade Arraez to (say) Toronto for pitching, trade Kepler to clear room in the OF. See if there is a market for Polanco and let our young MI have auditions to play SS/2B. I like Julien a lot. But the Twins have almost no pitching. Most of our arms are the AAAA type. We have to find a lot of innings somehow but I don't see how we do it.

Disagree on the staff.  What this staff has in spades is guys who should be decent MLB starters.  Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR, and potentially Mahle and Paddack are all perfectly acceptable 3-5 starters, with even some #2 potential here and there.  Filling innings will not be a problem for this staff (at least no more so than it is for any other team); finding an ace and a good #2 will be a problem.

[Cap'n Piranha]

49 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

How does it not matter if a team is paying $30M/year for nothing for several years?  It does not matter today which is the only frame of reference many baseball fans can relate to.  It most certainly is an impediment for building a team during the years that contract is underperforming.  BTW ... This mindset will get your butt fired from a strategic role in a millisecond in the real world.

Because the Giants want Correa for the first 6-8 years of the contract, but didn't want to pay $40M-$50M in AAV.  They pay less per year, for more years, freeing up space under the luxury tax to hand out more big contracts, while knowing that $27M in 2030-2035 is more like $20M-$22M today, while the average payroll in MLB might be $250M.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

Boomer rant follows:  Like all the analytics minutia, every strategy employed by the wunder kids is based upon “potential “ outcomes. When those potential outcomes fail to materialize or the opposite happens, this FO is flummoxed, and there is no backup plan. Cue-scrambling to do “something “.   To look at the analytics of good players and to note that they have this and this and this in common is useful. To look at this other player who hasn’t been good but has most of the same common traits and then conclude that they are thus due to be good in the short term is poor logic. It is taking a very small set of data and making sweeping generalizations about future behavior and production. I don’t think approaching roster construction based on a fallacious premise is all that wise. Using this FO logic: the past 6+ years proves that lack of wisdom absolutely. 

It's actually a very good strategy to identify what traits good players have in common, and then look for those attributes in "not good" players.  What this FO has failed at too many times in my opinion is to identify what traits good players don't have, and avoid "not good" players who do have those traits.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

How does it not matter if a team is paying $30M/year for nothing for several years?  It does not matter today which is the only frame of reference many baseball fans can relate to.  It most certainly is an impediment for building a team during the years that contract is underperforming.  BTW ... This mindset will get your butt fired from a strategic role in a millisecond in the real world.

Because that is one average FA in years 11-13 (one total, not one per year). Would you trade one average FA in those three years for the certainty of CC being in MN for ten years, of which 5-7 are projected to be elite? 

[howeda7]

On 12/14/2022 at 8:48 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don’t even blame them for not landing Correa… well, not entirely. But it’s one more thing that doesn’t look good for them.

I’m tired of trading for injured pitchers.

I’m tired of the lack of pitching development.

I’m tired of them disliking long contracts more than they like good players.

I’m tired of them not getting “their guy” and instead pivoting, pivoting, and pivoting again.

I simply don’t see many reasons to keep them around anymore. They’re not exceptional at anything and have significant flaws. 

Completely agree. We are wasting time and $$ every year we keep them around.

[adorduan]

4 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It's super fascinating to me how many people on this forum dislike Falvine because of Falvine supposedly thinking they are the smartest guys in the room.  Would we prefer our FO not be the smartest guys in the room?

Well, usually the guys that REALLY ARE the smartest in the room, are humble enough to not think they are.  Hubris and arrogance usually gets your ass kicked.

[gunnarthor]

59 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Disagree on the staff.  What this staff has in spades is guys who should be decent MLB starters.  Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR, and potentially Mahle and Paddack are all perfectly acceptable 3-5 starters, with even some #2 potential here and there.  Filling innings will not be a problem for this staff (at least no more so than it is for any other team); finding an ace and a good #2 will be a problem.

I mean, I hope you're right but I think it's mostly wishful thinking rather than reality. Besides what I highlight below, the other big problem this staff has is a complete lack of upside. 

I like Gray. He is a real ML pitcher. But he'll be 33 next year and was only allowed to throw 119 innings last year and still managed a 2.5 WAR. I don't think anyone can reasonably expect him to have more of an impact next year. Same with Ryan. Yes, he was a rookie but he was an old rookie. He's a solid back of the rotation type. That's not bad but that's what he is. 

Maeda will be 35 and is a bullpen arm at this point, maybe better than Jax, but he's not going to save the pen. I like Mahle but he has a shoulder injury. What's a realistic best case scenario for him? Matching Grey's innings and value last year? I'd take that.

Winder is 26. He was not good in the majors. He's never been a top 100 prospect. Sure, he could break out more but, realistically, it's hard to believe he'd be better than Ryan as a best case scenario. Ober will be 27. Again, never highly regarded, very few innings, injury history. Do we think he's more than Ryan? Isn't it more likely that both Winder and Bailey just don't make it? And I doubt they have the permission to pitch a lot of innings. I like SWR but his velocity is a question mark and scouts didn't like him down the stretch. Paddack is already a cost-controllable back of the rotation arm coming back from TJ surgery and hasn't had an ERA+ above 100 since his rookie season. Last year, the four of them made 28 starts and combined to throw 150 innings worth .9 WAR. I'm sure 1 of the 4 will be a fun surprise but I'm also sure 1 of the 4 will be really bad, because that's how these things work. 

So, realistic best case, what do we have? (And, isn't it more likely that the FO trades Grey or Maeda at the deadline?)
Grey 119 ip 2.5 WAR
Mahle 119 ip 2.5 WAR
Ryan 150 ip, 2. 5 WAR
Ober/Paddack/Winder/SWR combined - 200 ip, 1 WAR?
Maeda - 80 ip, 1 WAR?

That means the team has to find another 750 or so innings from elsewhere. Don't see how they can find it, especially since they need to be able to move arms up and down to AAA as needed. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

.  BTW ... This mindset will get your butt fired from a strategic role in a millisecond in the real world.

I assume the Giants' front office is out looking for jobs as we speak?