After last offseason, it was hard not to be shocked by the sheer amount of money that was thrown around to free agents. Now with still over 100 players to be signed this winter, it’s clear we are going to blow by those values again. On the pitching front, it benefits the Minnesota Twins to have depth.

 

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

During the Winter Meetings, baseball organizations spent over $2 billion on player contracts Minnesota sat out on that frenzy, but it’s not as though they won’t still dole out dollars. What they do have going for them is a very clear blueprint as to what type of talent is needed.

Last offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a pact with mid-level starter Dylan Bundy, and then picked Chris Archer off the scrap heap late in the offseason. The hope was that they could provide a level of consistency behind the likes of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, effectively making them mediocre veterans. Coming into this year, the Twins have a stable that includes Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and a few others. They don’t need to clog the back of their rotation with 'mediocre' veterans.

The good news is that those types are costly. Taijuan Walker just got four years and $72 million from the Phillies after posting his first sub-4.00 ERA in a full season since 2017. Former Yankees starter Jameson Taillon was given four years and $68 million by the Cubs following his first sub-4.00 ERA since 2018 and having missed the 2020 season. Zach Eflin, despite his 3.57 FIP the past three seasons, has a 4.49 career ERA and the Tampa Bay Rays handed him $40 million over three seasons. The mid-level pitching market has truly gone bananas.

All of those names could certainly be argued as better than both Bundy and Archer, but the reality is that in recent seasons the Twins front office has needed those types just to get to five arms. In being able to avoid that group entirely, the refrain has been an arm at the level of Sonny Gray or better. There are only so many of those types on the free agent market, but a few remain.

There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities. Each of the types Minnesota now need will come with a price tag, but at least they aren’t paying pennies on the dollar for innings rather than performance.

This is a different scenario for Falvey and Levine to navigate. They pulled off the Gray trade prior to Opening Day last offseason, and they swung big for Tyler Mahle at the deadline. Both of those arms advance the overall ability of the starting rotation, and they have a clear picture of the talent level they must acquire.

We have yet to see the Twins pitching pipeline develop something like a number one starter, although Joe Ryan may someday get there. What it has done is provide a considerable amount of depth with respectable floors for a team that has often churned through arms. Knowing how many different starters took the mound a season ago, the reality is that Rocco Baldelli’s club is going to need at least 10 guys capable of throwing something like 50 innings in 2023.

Sure, the Twins have money to spend, but it is a relief to not need to overspend on a veteran that likely won’t move the needle.

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I sincerely hope you are wrong and the Twins don't need 10 starters this year, not counting guys they bring up for a double header.  Let's pray for good health so that maybe seven or eight at the most pitch those 50+ innings.  If that's the case, the Twins are all set with Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR, with Paddack coming back hopefully by late summer.

Yes, the pipeline isn't churning out lots of options, although Ober, Winder and Varland were all drafted by the Twins.  Perhaps the best thing the front office duo has accomplished is stocking this pitching staff via several smart trades, trades that have brought in solid starters with more than a year of control.  Now they just have to decide which of the four veterans should be extended and get it done by mid-summer.  Heck, I'd like to see all four kept around and whether or not they sign Correa, they should have the dollars to do it.  And let's remember Tom Kelly's most basic belief, "you are only as good as your next day's starter."

It would be huge if two of Varland / SWR / Winder prove they are here to stay over the course of 2023.  That would give them 4 prearb starters plus Paddack at a modest sum.  They could afford to sign anyone they want.  Obviously, they still need to convince them to come here but they will have the money to spend.

All great points as usual Ted.  Between what the Twins already have under contract...all of the guys you mentioned, the 3-5 spots in the rotation should be well-covered.  I've said all along I only want to see a guy who can be a frontline starter.  The guy who I've always liked is Eovaldi...front-line stuff.  If they  can get him on a reasonable deal, I'll take 15-20 starts from him and deal with some of the injuries.

There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities.

Bassitt has a new team already, Toronto. Syndergaard isn't better than Gray at this point in his post-TJS career, and may not be better than most of the Twins' other current starters.

Eovaldi is the interesting one of that group. I don't totally agree that Rodón is definitely out of the picture, if the Twins are really willing to allocate their payroll room there.

Give Eovaldi a try.

With what is left we may have what we need in house.  Don't sign another mediocre arm to clog the rotation.

5 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities.

Bassitt has a new team already, Toronto. Syndergaard isn't better than Gray at this point in his post-TJS career, and may not be better than most of the Twins' other current starters.

Eovaldi is the interesting one of that group. I don't totally agree that Rodón is definitely out of the picture, if the Twins are really willing to allocate their payroll room there.

I guess one could say that there was never a point in which Carlos Correa was a realistic option for the Twins, either. But then he was very real.

Enough money always makes any team a realistic option. And free agents only need $, and no players/prospects. (Not that I think Rodon will be a good long term bet.)

I see our rotation as all question marks. All of them for various reasons. If that is depth to ride with, we will need a ton of luck.

What an amusing headline. Twins and Pitching Depth in the same sentence?

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

I guess one could say that there was never a point in which Carlos Correa was a realistic option for the Twins, either. But then he was very real.

Enough money always makes any team a realistic option. And free agents only need $, and no players/prospects. (Not that I think Rodon will be a good long term bet.)

I see our rotation as all question marks. All of them for various reasons. If that is depth to ride with, we will need a ton of luck.

Yep, I largely agree. (The sentence you put in bold is not my words but a quote from the article, in case not obvious.)

I do think there was likely an extenuating factor for Verlander at least, in that he wasn't going to sign for more than 2-3 years at this stage, and probably wanted a more obvious contender. But a lot of us thought similarly about deGrom, and he took more dollars and years to go to a worse team.

In any case, yes, Rodon is realistic for the Twins this offseason in the way that Correa was last offseason.

I agree on pretty much all, except I think we could've pushed harder for Bassitt.  Not a huge strikeout arm, but very capable top-mid rotation guy.

However, Rodon, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, and Ryan sounds freakin' fantastic and freakin' doable.

Maybe instead of going out and spending lots of $$ on a low to mid level arm the Twins could look at extending Mahle and maybe Gray?

19 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

There was never a point in which Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were realistic options for the Twins, and Carlos Rodon probably has too many suitors to be thought of as a true possibility as well. Maybe Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, and Nathan Eovaldi are still in play, while the trade market has an endless amount of possibilities.

Bassitt has a new team already, Toronto. Syndergaard isn't better than Gray at this point in his post-TJS career, and may not be better than most of the Twins' other current starters.

Eovaldi is the interesting one of that group. I don't totally agree that Rodón is definitely out of the picture, if the Twins are really willing to allocate their payroll room there.

With Bassitt gone & Syndergaard with significantly less consistency than Eovaldi, Eovaldi seems to be an obvious sign! At least someone we should pursue. Eovaldi at $22-$24 million for 3 yrs. …….go after M. Fulmer for $15 million over 2 yrs……..That’s $31 million we have available after Correa departure & it leaves us liquid to EXTEND Gray - Maeda - Mahle in season if they are performing.

Depth toward the front end of the rotation allows Maeda to pitch from Bullpen for 2-6 months - big addition to BP depth!! 

Eovaldi - Gray - Mahle - Ryan - Ober/Varland

Maeda - Jax - Moran - Durhan - Thielbar - Lopez - Megill/Alcala - Fulmer (sign him)……..the only wince in this group of 13 is Lopez but his stuff needs to be coached up to get back to at least a middle inning guy. Not sure he has mental make-up to close games routinely.

No particular #1 in the rotation but much more formidable in a Series with Eovaldi’s experience & ability.

Last I looked (10 minutes ago) we have a massive hole at shortstop, might want to fill that void before worrying about adding an average starter to the rotation at a unnecessarily high salary.

 

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Maybe instead of going out and spending lots of $$ on a low to mid level arm the Twins could look at extending Mahle and maybe Gray?

Should be able to do BOTH……I assume Gray & Mahle both need $5-$7 million/year more to extend. I think Maeda, if effective after May/June should get an offer as well. Still room for Eovaldi for 3 years & this pushes Maeda to pen for depth (easing him back as well) for a good chunk of this year.

Just once sign an Ace, I don't care if we have to overpay. Tired of the same old thing, if we only had an Ace.

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Should be able to do BOTH……I assume Gray & Mahle both need $5-$7 million/year more to extend. I think Maeda, if effective after May/June should get an offer as well. Still room for Eovaldi for 3 years & this pushes Maeda to pen for depth (easing him back as well) for a good chunk of this year.

I think those numbers will be quite a bit higher, after what we saw this off season, but even so, there should be plenty of $$ left over.

The problem here is there really are no "Aces" left to go after in FA, so if thats what we want then we need to trade for one. Rodon isn't Johan Santana guys, he's really only had a couple years with big numbers so signing him is risky in my opinion, go get Eovaldi.  We can win with a rotation of #2 and #3 starters, spend the money on bullpen and and a right handed stick, and look for a stiopgap SS to get us to Lewis/Lee. 

We can always move Polanco back to SS and platoon 2B.

IF our rotation stays healthy for most of the year, I think we have enough to win the central with.  I think Richardson should sixth starter up this year though, he seems to have the tools to settle higher up in a rotation then the others at St Paul. This year it could be up to Enlow and Balazovic, if we are going to add another starter from the minors to the Varland, Winder & Richardson mix. I don't see any other new names coming from the minors for the next 2 years. We need to hang unto our veteran pool of hitters(Arraez, Polanco mainly) to help the guys without a full year of major league experience grind through the year.

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Should be able to do BOTH……I assume Gray & Mahle both need $5-$7 million/year more to extend. I think Maeda, if effective after May/June should get an offer as well. Still room for Eovaldi for 3 years & this pushes Maeda to pen for depth (easing him back as well) for a good chunk of this year.

If these three perform well why would they extend mid-season when they would be a few months from FA?  Mostly after seeing what pitching cost this off-season.

If they do perform, the Twins will not be able to get them at those numbers IMHO.

9 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If these three perform well why would they extend mid-season when they would be a few months from FA?  Mostly after seeing what pitching cost this off-season.

If they do perform, the Twins will not be able to get them at those numbers IMHO.

Agreed, no way they take an extension mid-year unless it is a TON of money.

Also, people here yelled all summer that trading for an injured Mahle was a mistake, now everyone wants to extend him?

I'd be good with a Gray extension at this point, like 5 years at 20MM per.....that's what it will likely take.

Syndergaard to the Dodgers....rumor has it. So, that's off the table. 

Also, y'all need an editor. Bassitt was signed a loooooong time ago.