Twins May Benefit From a Change in Spending Strategy

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins transitioned from Terry Ryan to Derek Falvey in the front office, it was an ushering in of change. Falvey came from the Cleveland Guardians and a more new-school way of doing things. We have now seen enough with the Twins to understand a repetitive process, and it again may be time to challenge that.

 

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey’s hiring was largely celebrated through the lens of Cleveland’s pitching pipeline that he helped to develop. The hope was that the Twins could see a similar level of success. Thad Levine was brought along as the general manager. Thus far, we’ve seen a few instances of that but more needs to be done.

On the free agent front, we’ve watched the tandem spend to franchise-record payrolls over each of the past two seasons. It’s beyond nice to see Minnesota raising that water level, and for a team that should unquestionably remain near league average, the top has to continue going up. After being around $140 million for 2022, a push to $160 million seems like a reasonable request in 2023. A 17% increase makes sense for a team whose attendance was low in 2022 despite being in first place through most of August. The problem lies in how they get there.

Over the past few offseasons, the Twins have preached patience. Falvey and Levine have said all of the right things and then waited out the market. They did so when pivoting to Josh Donaldson after whiffing on Zack Wheeler. They did so in grabbing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison as spring training kicked off. They even did so last year when shortstop options were gone, and yet Carlos Correa landed in their lap.

It now may be time they use the talent to dictate the budget.

In waiting for players to agree to their offers, it seems as though the front office is working backwards from an agreed upon amount (as all MLB teams do). This is understandable when ownership likely throws out a number they initially feel comfortable with budgeting. Although Jim Pohlad is no longer the ownership face of the Twins, there will likely not be a substantial financial change with Joe Pohlad in charge. That said, Falvey has always reiterated they have the full support of the front office, and are unafraid to have conversations about spending dollars where it makes sense.

That continues to fall on deaf ears when the Twins are left with no opportunities to push the pockets.

While Correa and Carlos Rodon are the only premier talents left on the market, Minnesota has a substantial amount of dollars yet to allocate simply to reach last season’s thresholds. By waiting to see if he accepts whatever they have presented, the Twins also are leaving the door open for another team to surpass what may not be their best effort. 

Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Jacob deGrom have all already signed. The likelihood a free agent is waiting to bleed out every last drop isn’t high (although that is what Scott Boras is known for any typically secures for his clients), but rather they are looking to have their match met. If the Twins operated from a place of talent or targets first, getting Correa done with a $35-40 million average annual value over whatever amount of years would then give them the baseline as to what they have left. Instead of waiting for the acceptance of what’s out there, talent worthy of dollars eventually becomes non-existent.

Minnesota wouldn’t be well positioned to go sign Correa and Rodon for a combined average annual value of $70 million, but if they did the roster could be filled out from that point. Maybe there’s conversations that follow and requests for additional funds to round out the roster, or a pitch is made that spending could help to increase interest that resulted in an attendance lower than anything we’ve seen since the Metrodome.

This is a strategy we have not seen this front office employ. Instead it has been wait and see, and while that worked once in landing a big fish like Correa, it has often left hefty pockets with only leftovers to spend it on. Pushing the budget up from the bottom, rather than subtracting from the top, could help to provide a more clear direction on what way the 26-man is constructed for Rocco Baldelli.

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[darin617]

A team can be willing to spend money but it doesn't insure that players will want to sign with the team. Unless the team is overpaying big time in years and money don't expect anything to change.

[tony&rodney]

Free agency is a valuable way to improve a team, but trades are a critical way forward as well. It takes all three of develop, trade, and sign free agents to build a team. The Twins have developed some guys and traded for a few. Moves are coming.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Winning attracts winners. The Twins must start winning consistently and pay accordingly. I submit the Twins must over pay in order to prime the pump of winners wanting to come to Minnesota to play with other winners. Once the Twins become like the Yankees or the Dodgers, who are  consistent winners, other winners will want to come to Minnesota to play baseball. 

[jrod23]

What free agent pitcher, with interest from anyone else, would want to come to Minnesota with Rocco in the helm?

"You're doing great.  You're hitting your spots.  Pitching to the scouting report to a T.  You're straight rolling...but you're 5 1/3 innings in and numbers show on cloudy evenings when you're in the midwest and there's a chance of rain, you have a tendency to throw 84% of your pitches up in the zone and give up 24% more dingers.  Shower up."

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Free agency is a valuable way to improve a team, but trades are a critical way forward as well. It takes all three of develop, trade, and sign free agents to build a team. The Twins have developed some guys and traded for a few. Moves are coming.

The difference is that in baseball, your prospects are under team control for so long, anyone developed with cost certainty becomes more valuable. You can ALWAYS make more money. You can't always have the same prospects.

[Ted Schwerzler]

47 minutes ago, jrod23 said:

What free agent pitcher, with interest from anyone else, would want to come to Minnesota with Rocco in the helm?

"You're doing great.  You're hitting your spots.  Pitching to the scouting report to a T.  You're straight rolling...but you're 5 1/3 innings in and numbers show on cloudy evenings when you're in the midwest and there's a chance of rain, you have a tendency to throw 84% of your pitches up in the zone and give up 24% more dingers.  Shower up."

 

But, like, no.

 

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The only way this would work is if the Twins had younger players that were actually producing.  Think back to the early-to-mid 2000's when it felt like every player that came up had success.  I think the Twins would be more comfortable spending large if they truly believed it would put them over the top.  Our current youth movement has shown very little at this stage...

[DocBauer]

Ryan, with 20/20 hindsight and reports, never pushed the envelope. In fact, he commented he was never turned down for $, and seemed to take pride in the fact he never spent as much as he could have. And I have tremendous respect for TR, so I'm not throwing shade his way. I'm just saying as good as he was, as good of a job as he did, at least in his 1st turn as GM, the financial game within the game passed him by.

Simply making a point and ABSOLUTELY NOT going to get in to some eternal debate about ownership spending.

The current FO seems willing to push the envelope and spend. And when it didn't work out, the switched gears and spent a different way. And even when they went a different direction and it didn't work out...see the mentioned Lynn and Morrisson signings....even the pundits initially hailed the moves. Our current FO has made mistakes. And some moves haven't turned out. But they haven't been afraid to try things and push the previous envelope. 

But Ted suggests a change in MO that I've been on my own soapbox for a while now. It's OK, and even smart, to take a patient approach to things like FA and see what value drops in your lap. It may not always work out, but it does at times. Witness Cruz, Marwin, Correa, a few arms that worked, and some that should have. 

But you can't, even as a mid market team, ONLY play the waiting game! 

As smart and observent as we all may be as amateur GM's, there is still so much we don't know, and will never know, as to the information and machinations of heading a FO. But at times, things just appear so obvious that it's perfectly fine to call out the decision makers in place.

As an example, it seems fair to look back at 2022 and feel the FO was so fixated on the Buxton extension...which turned out fair or cheap, a different debate...and they simply ignored a flush market of pitching that passed them by and they ended up with Bundy and Archer only. While there is ZERO guarantee signing a "better" arm would have lead to success, those combined salaries could have garnered ONE SP with potential vs a couple "hopeful" signings.

Right now, they are so focused on Correa, the market is slipping away. Even if they don't want to add to the rotation with some of the ridiculous numbers being offered and agreed on...and I get it...they have seemingly ignored the rest of the roster yet again. You didn't want to sign Haniger for the OF due to potential vs injury risk? OK. BUT you're going to stick with Garlick as your RH OF? You signed a quality catcher that you needed. But even IF you sign Correa, why aren't you in someone like Myers to be that RH OF that's been needed for a couple years now? 

Despite waiting on Correa, you can't tell me the FO is so blinded by other needs that they are going to continue, again, to let opportunity slip through their hands. They just HAVE to know there is room to add Vazquez at catcher and another bat to make a complete team. And that's my biggest issue with the FO right now. Going for the "whale" is awesome! Being patient can bring great dividends, usually relief or bench options, but they need to be AGGRESSIVE early on what they need and want. GO FOR IT. Strike early if you can and THEN sit back and wait. 

Now, THIS offseason is different than previous ones, even more so than Buck last year. The elephant in the room is larger, and I get that. But you just can't sit around in a trophy room and wait for the next big GET. You HAVE to play around the edges to make sure you don't screw up.

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, jrod23 said:

What free agent pitcher, with interest from anyone else, would want to come to Minnesota with Rocco in the helm?

"You're doing great.  You're hitting your spots.  Pitching to the scouting report to a T.  You're straight rolling...but you're 5 1/3 innings in and numbers show on cloudy evenings when you're in the midwest and there's a chance of rain, you have a tendency to throw 84% of your pitches up in the zone and give up 24% more dingers.  Shower up."

 

Texas starting pitchers last year pitched almost as few as the Twins, They did not have any problems signing 3 pitchers. Interesting that you have to come up with an artificial scenario in your theory

[old nurse]

This front office will likely be gone when you can say wether or not the aggressive spending of a team like Texas worked.  Year one resulted in no change in attendance from pre-pandemic times and no change in record. It is really easy to say a team should be doing something differently   Really hard to say what the right way is with free agency.  Aggressive signing of free agents is an opinion. You can argue the Dombrowski method works, but that is 2 WS wins in a 25 year career and a team in disarray when he leaves

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Free agency is a valuable way to improve a team, but trades are a critical way forward as well. It takes all three of develop, trade, and sign free agents to build a team. The Twins have developed some guys and traded for a few. Moves are coming.

After hearing / reading this statement many times, I wondered just how influential each method has been in the past among winning teams.  So, I compiled data in the form of WAR by acquisition method from the best teams over the past 20 years.  I have many examples from mid and small markets.  I want to collect large market data for comparison.  Then, after the holidays I will post the data showing the relative impact of each type of acquisition.  I can tell you this .... Trading for prospects has been far more impactful than trading for established players for teams with below average revenue.  Trading prospects for elite players is virtually non-existent among the examples I have gathered.

The interesting thing about free agency is that the better a team is at producing prearb talent, the more budget they have for free agency.  It would be accurate to say that player development enables or drives a team's ability to spend in free agency.

[dxpavelka]

Always love someone who is an expert at spending other people's money.  I call mine my wife.

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

It now may be time they use the talent to dictate the budget.

That's basically what Cohen is doing.  Man it would be great to have an owner willing to operate at a loss of 10s of millions.  We all share your wish!  However, the other owners determine their budget based on how much revenue they produce, just like you and me and every other business on the planet, including non-profits.  

If I were to speculate on the budget without the benefit of projected revenue and operating costs, I would look at the fact the Twins revenue has been about $40M under league average the last few years, and hope they would be aggressive enough to spend league average.  

[rv78]

"You HAVE to play around the edges to make sure you don't screw up." 

I would say the Farmer trade and Vazquez signing are exactly that. Both solid moves that will improve the team in 2023. 

Now trade Kepler. Get a good RH bat to take his place. Sign a SS like an Iglesias as a stop gap to Lewis and then seriously go after Rodon for an Ace to make the entire rotation better.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

But, like, no.

 

 

When you have fragile pitchers, you need to protect them for a 6 month season & not concern yourself with today’s box score!! Archer, Gray, Ober, Winder, Mahle, & Bundy were ALL either off recent serious injury or were injured during the year in ‘22. Ryan was a ROOKIE!!! What is the constant whine about Rocco & limited innings when one applies logic?? Sick of it…..the only guy that complained was Gray & he’s hyper competitive but oft injured going back to Cinti., N.Y., & Oakland. On the IL at least twice in ‘22.

Bull pen was underperforming from mid-June through rest of season. If Joe Smith - Duffey - Pagán were just “average” we would have been in the hunt through September.

No effect on who might sign with TWINS as a free agent starter! All about “$” & “can we compete”, in that order.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Free agency is a valuable way to improve a team, but trades are a critical way forward as well. It takes all three of develop, trade, and sign free agents to build a team. The Twins have developed some guys and traded for a few. Moves are coming.

Need to ACT In free agency now! Moves, come quickly, please!!!

Bassitt is gone - PAY Eovaldi for 3 years at $23 million/yr. Maybe Corey Kluber as a last resort for $12.5 million for a year. Michael Fulmer for Pen……………all set if we could get 2 of these 3 done.

[tony&rodney]

I think Ted is suggesting that the Twins change in strategy is to move ahead more aggressively in spending where it makes sense, meeting the market as opposed to waiting out the market. Christian Vasquez is an example. 

It is undeniable that teams need to have a strong base of players that were brought up through the organization and some of those players are acquired through trading.  More than half of the current 40 person roster was signed and developed by the Twins. Some current examples of signed and developed include Jeffers, Arraez, Kirilloff, Polanco, Miranda, Larnach, Gordon, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Lewis, Julien, Ober, Winder, Jax, Moran, and Varland. Some players traded for and developed include Martin, Celestino, Duran, Alcala, Woods Richardson, and Henriquez. The Twins have gained a few experienced players via trade as well, with Farmer, Ryan, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda being current examples. The Twins don't have many players typically that were acquired via FA and trades.

Adding a player or two via free agency once in a while has been done (Nelson Cruz), but successful signings of the better players has been tough for many reasons and money is one. The Twins gained Vasquez, which I view as an aggressive and positive gain for the team, and it cost the team money. The change in strategy may be in seeing an opportunity now that costs more finances than the team was willing to pay and/or it may be a means to jolt interest to gain attendance. 

As a fan, I just want to watch a more athletic team, one that plays defense and is fundamentally sound in addition to hitting and pitching. I guess we all do.

[JD-TWINS]

Spend for a starter - need depth with Gray, Mahle, Ober, & Maeda all coming off physical issues! If we get Eovaldi, we can move Maeda to Pen for at least 2-3 months and maybe it’s a formula that could stick!

Add a reliever as well. Fulmer would be solid. Any guy that has a track record of being effective through last season. Brewers may have a couple free agents that fit? 

Could get a guy like Kluber or Cueto on 1 yr. deal if absolutely the only alternative. Need depth!! Could use these 2023 pitching $ spent & use in 2024 & beyond to extend Gray & or Mahle or Maeda if they shine in 1st half of 2023. Extend them early!!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Always love someone who is an expert at spending other people's money.  I call mine my wife.

I might have liked this comment, but I don't want to get in trouble.

[jrod23]

10 hours ago, old nurse said:

Texas starting pitchers last year pitched almost as few as the Twins, They did not have any problems signing 3 pitchers. Interesting that you have to come up with an artificial scenario in your theory

Sarcasm.  But you do state truth.  I'm just a jaded fan that gets annoyed with certain pitching approaches of today.

[jrod23]

17 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

But, like, no.

Solid ammo Ted.  When it comes down to it, why can't we ever have nice pitchers (top tier) via free agency?  Climate, coaching, philosophies, defense, offense, team chemistry, ballpark, lack of interest, owner's pockets, etc?  We can touch on it every year that we miss out on a top level free agent pitcher, but what is it about Minnesota not getting that pitching?

[MGM4706]

Bottom line is why spend $300 Mil on a SS if the other team is hitting the ball over the fence? Twins have already shown their cards. By not getting any pitching they are content to be profitable and be a .500 Club!!

[ziggy]

Does anyone actually think Falvey or Terry Ryan would come out and say "the Polads have me on a tight money leash so we have to bargin shop for player help"?

We will never know how profitable the Twins are or aren't and it is easy to spend someone elses money. When Falvey first was hired I thought he did little free agent spending because of Mauers overweight contract. I understand not wanting an overweight contract but if that's todays market and they are not going to participate in it they need to stop trading prospects for pitchers like Gray and Lopez.

[old nurse]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That's basically what Cohen is doing.  Man it would be great to have an owner willing to operate at a loss of 10s of millions.  We all share your wish!  However, the other owners determine their budget based on how much revenue they produce, just like you and me and every other business on the planet, including non-profits.  

If I were to speculate on the budget without the benefit of projected revenue and operating costs, I would look at the fact the Twins revenue has been about $40M under league average the last few years, and hope they would be aggressive enough to spend league average.  

Cohen may get his championship and let the team wither,  Loria spent and won. It will be interesting to see what happens if the Mets continue to fall just short  

 

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, jrod23 said:

Sarcasm.  But you do state truth.  I'm just a jaded fan that gets annoyed with certain pitching approaches of today.

Mocking what is viewed as stupidly ,mimicking it, or being iit The internet decision strikes again

[TopGunn#22]

I think Doc Bauer did an outstanding job of laying out why he's frustrated with our current FO.  He aligns with my feelings very closely.  I too would like to see us be more proactive at the beginning of the process.  For example:  Knowing how the FA market spins out of control consistently with insane money being thrown at the "top" FA's, I would have identified Chris Bassitt as my pitching target and gone hard for him right away.  The Twins needed an effective SP who also stabilizes the rotation by consistently eating innings.  Bassitt is that kind of pitcher.  The money he signed for wasn't unreasonable.