Byron Buxton Did the Twins a Favor

[Ted Schwerzler]

It was last November when it was finally time to end the “Pay the Man!” campaign. Minnesota came up with $100 million to make sure that Byron Buxton would essentially play out his career in the same uniform. That was a steal then, and even more so after free agency developments this past week.

 

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins drafted Byron Buxton 2nd overall in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft. One-time teammate Carlos Correa was the only man that went ahead of him. It took until 2015 for Buxton to make his Major League debut, and it wasn’t until 2017 that we saw a glimpse of what was to come.

Now fully appreciated as a top player in the game, the caveat has always been “when healthy.” Buxton has suffered a series of maladies over the course of his career, and that was the only reason Minnesota found themselves in an advantageous position. With free agency looming and a desire to avoid that by finding common ground through an extension, only the Twins were able to negotiate a deal with their star.

Make no mistake, Byron Buxton was going to get paid if he had hit the open market, the question was how much and who would the Twins be competing with. Minnesota has never swam in a pool with the sharks, and outside of Correa falling into their laps last winter, the big spenders have always far surpassed their offers. If any large market team wanted Buxton, it would’ve been incredibly hard for the Twins to keep him.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine came up with a creative offer that would pay Buxton $100 million over the next seven years regardless. They then included incentives that allowed the superstar to bet on himself. In doing so, Buxton has a yearly opportunity to capitalize on his performance if he can remain on the field. Year one wound up being virtually equal value, even with the missed time, but it remains to be seen how it will go from here.

On the flip side, Steve Cohen’s deep pockets for the New York Mets just gave us some insight into what the frenzy may have looked like on the open market.

Talented outfielder Brandon Nimmo just agreed to an eight-year deal worth $162 million. He’s a year older than Buxton was at the time of his contract signing, and he’s experienced a similar level of injury concerns. The problem for the Mets is that they had to deal with other suitors, and although Nimmo isn’t the player Buxton is by any means, fighting over his services drove the price up.

Across seven major-league seasons, Nimmo has played all of them with the New York team that drafted him 13th overall from high school. In those seven seasons, he’s played more than 70 games just three times, and has surpassed 100 games only twice. In his corner was that 2022, just prior to signing a new deal with the Mets, he played a career high 151 games.

Not only is Nimmo’s $20.25 million annually higher than Buxton’s $14.29 million, but he also had the contract stretched a year longer despite being older. We have seen Major League teams spend a boatload over the course of the Winter Meetings, and despite setting records a season ago, it seems they’ll be crushed again this time around.

Injury is something teams certainly are hoping to avoid, but there’s a level of risk being taken on in every long-term deal. Health or otherwise, every player ages, and baseball is set up to stifle earnings while athletes may be at their best. Being paid for previous performance is part of the structure, and it’s the projection systems you’re hoping to hone in and have future performance outweigh eventual decline.

Maybe the Twins would have ultimately always been home for Buxton, or maybe he would have taken less money on the open market to stay where he’s been comfortable. What is certain, however, is that $100 million Buxton signed for is well below where the payday would have been had he gone to free agency.

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[mikelink45]

Only if he stays healthy.  That was the gamble on both sides of the negotiations.

[umterp23]

Very fair deal for Buxton and the Twins.  He is an outfielder and needs to be in the OF 80% of his playing time at a minimum.  DH on occasion is a bonus.  His true worth for the twins has be more defense the what we got this year and limit the Celestino impact.  Gordon helps in other spots but Celestino doesn't warrant a full time roster spot at the Bigs level

[DJL44]

Yeah, I don't want to hear anyone bellyaching about Buxton being overpaid. He's paid fairly if he only plays half time. $100M buys 12 WAR on the open market this offseason. I'll bet Buxton delivers at least that much value over the life of the contract.

[Dman]

Some context is needed.  Last year coming off the money losing pandemic season teams didn't seem as interested in handing out long term contracts.  Other than Texas doing big money deals for Seagers and Semian.  Correct me if I am wrong but  I think Seagers was the only player last year to get a 300M contract in FA.  All of last years contracts seem relatively modest compared to this year.  Almost every trade rumors article about top Free Agents this year has the player making much more than predicted in total dollars and in years. So last year was a much different market and it looked like long term deals were a thing of the past until this year where a few teams are going past the penalties with indifference.

Buxton's deal is light but he still hasn't made it through a full season.  He might have gotten a better deal or he might have needed to bridge a new deal taking a one year higher AAV type deal to try and get past the injury issues.  Given what happened last year that contract still looks fair to both sides to me.  If Buxton was fairly guaranteed to stay healthy I might have a different view.

[Doctor Gast]

There was a lot of negative hype over Buxton not wanting to return. That was the farthest from the truth. The problem wasn't because of base pay or incentives it was that Buxton wanted a no-trade clause, where FO didn't. I'm very thankful that Pohlad stepped in & said get it done. Buxton is an absolute bargain as a player & as a person. Thanks Ted for bringing this out in a very practical way.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

Some context is needed.  Last year coming off the money losing pandemic season teams didn't seem as interested in handing out long term contracts.  Other than Texas doing big money deals for Seagers and Semian.  Correct me if I am wrong but  I think Seagers was the only player last year to get a 300M contract in FA.  All of last years contracts seem relatively modest compared to this year.  Almost every trade rumors article about top Free Agents this year has the player making much more than predicted in total dollars and in years. So last year was a much different market and it looked like long term deals were a thing of the past until this year where a few teams are going past the penalties with indifference.

Buxton's deal is light but he still hasn't made it through a full season.  He might have gotten a better deal or he might have needed to bridge a new deal taking a one year higher AAV type deal to try and get past the injury issues.  Given what happened last year that contract still looks fair to both sides to me.  If Buxton was fairly guaranteed to stay healthy I might have a different view.

The point is he doesn’t have to make it through a whole season to be worth his salary.  If and when he does he will be vastly underpaid. Last year he paid for his salary by mid May. 

[bloomwcjkl]

Buxton is paid fairly. We just need another Buck to play the other 50% of the year in CF.

I think a move to RF would be good for Buck. I'd rather have him playing.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, bloomwcjkl said:

Buxton is paid fairly. We just need another Buck to play the other 50% of the year in CF.

I think a move to RF would be good for Buck. I'd rather have him playing.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

Why do you think moving him to RF would allow him to play more? It's an interesting discussion we've touched on a little around these parts, but I'm always curious to hear people's reasoning for things.

[bloomwcjkl]

Less ground to cover in RF. He will always dive for balls. Maybe RF wouldn't make any difference.

The old saying "keep doing the same thing over and over..expecting different results...insanity"

:-)

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, bloomwcjkl said:

Less ground to cover in RF. He will always dive for balls. Maybe RF wouldn't make any difference.

The old saying "keep doing the same thing over and over..expecting different results...insanity"

:-)

I personally don't think him being in RF would make a difference. It would add an extra wall for him to run into, and he'd still go all out towards CF on any ball hit there. But, to me at least, where he plays in the OF isn't the concern because he gets hurt doing non-outfield things more than he gets hurt doing OF things now. Running the bases, standing in the batters box, etc. I'd leave him in CF because him playing CF as well as he does is a huge part of his value. Unless you told me moving to a corner would get him to 130+ games a year, but I don't think it would, unfortunately.

[Whitey333]

You say Buxton did twins a favor by signing a 100 million contract.  I think he did a great job for himself.  Not bad 15 mill per year for a part time player.  He has done well for himself.  I believe, at least as of this writing, he is the highest paid Twin.  Not bad for a guy that hardly ever plays.  In eight seasons he had a full season just once.  In 2017 he played in 140 games.  The other seven years he's played in total less than half.  Again he should consider himself fortunate.  I believe he only played 92 of 162 games last year.  I'd love to see him play a full season but it's not likely to happen.  We see glimpses of excellence then stretches where he plays very poorly.  Before we deem this a team friendly deal, let's see him play full time for a few seasons and produce.

[jmlease1]

12 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

You say Buxton did twins a favor by signing a 100 million contract.  I think he did a great job for himself.  Not bad 15 mill per year for a part time player.  He has done well for himself.  I believe, at least as of this writing, he is the highest paid Twin.  Not bad for a guy that hardly ever plays.  In eight seasons he had a full season just once.  In 2017 he played in 140 games.  The other seven years he's played in total less than half.  Again he should consider himself fortunate.  I believe he only played 92 of 162 games last year.  I'd love to see him play a full season but it's not likely to happen.  We see glimpses of excellence then stretches where he plays very poorly.  Before we deem this a team friendly deal, let's see him play full time for a few seasons and produce.

Did you actually read the article? Nimmo is older, had only 2 healthy season in the last 6, is less talented/productive, and just got waaaaaay more money on a longer deal. On the open market, Buxton would have gone even higher.