4 Observations from the Twins' 2023 ZiPS Projections

[Cody Christie]

Projection systems can have pros and cons when providing a glimpse into the team's future. Here are four observations from the Twins' recently released ZiPS projections.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs referred to the Twins as "underwhelmingly adequate," which seems like an appropriate description of the team at this juncture. Even if the team signs Carlos Correa, there are holes to fill on a club that has fallen out of contention over the last two seasons. So, what are ZiPS projections, and what do they show for a team?

ZiPS is a projection system that uses multi-year statistics to try and predict how players will perform for an upcoming season. More recent seasons are weighted more heavily, and StatCast data has helped to make the model more accurate. There are hundreds of thousands of baselines for pitchers and hitters. ZiPS is a midpoint projection for a player, so some players will outperform their projections, and others will fall short. That being said, a few observations stand out among the Twins' 2023 ZiPS projections. 

The Bullpen is Top Heavy
Jhoan Duran is coming off a tremendous rookie campaign, and his number one comp is Jonathan Broxton. ZiPS projects him to accumulate a 1.1 WAR with a 125 ERA+ and a 14.5 K/9. Jorge Lopez projects to see a small bounce-back after struggling down the stretch for the Twins. The model projects him to have a  0.6 WAR with 8.7 K/9. ZiPS projects Cody Stashak to pitch well in 2023, but the team dropped him from the 40-man roster and is now a free agent. He is coming off surgery for a torn labrum, so the Twins must not feel he can help the 2023 team. Will the Twins try to add to the bullpen before the season starts?

Minnesota's Offense Projects to Be Above Average
Carlos Correa still isn't part of Minnesota's 2023 roster, but there are positives up and down the line-up. Unfortunately, FanGraphs said, "There's a larger-than-normal dropoff if injuries happen to hit hard." In 2022, injuries were one of the biggest storylines for the club. For the second consecutive season, ZiPS projects Luis Arraez to hit over .300, but his projection has limitations because of his defensive. Royce Lewis is scheduled to return from his second ACL injury in July, and ZiPS still has him projected for more WAR than Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers. 

Buxton's Comp is Disappointing
Byron Buxton projects to finish with the team's top WAR (3.9) though the model has him limited to 350 plate appearances (10 more than in 2022). He projects to hit .256/.323/.544 with a 134 OPS+ and 22 home runs. ZiPS lists Jeff Heath as the comp for Buxton, who showed plenty of promise but was also often injured. Fans can hope that Buxton plays in over 100 games for the first time since 2017, but it is unlikely to happen at this point in his career.   

The Starting Rotation is Bland
It's hard to look at any projection system for the Twins starters and have faith in what will occur in 2023. Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Bailey Ober all dealt with injuries last season, and there's no guarantee they can be relied on for a full workload in 2023. Mahle projects to pitch the second-most innings behind Joe Ryan, but there are still questions about his shoulder. The projections have Ober and Maeda pitching 90 innings or fewer. The Twins project to have a bunch of back of the rotation starters, which can help the team contend. However, the team likely needs another playoff-caliber starter to end the team's playoff losing streak. 

What thoughts do you have about the team's ZiPS projections? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[LonelyseatinMOA]

I don't know who zippy is but he seems pretty spot on 

 

[Dave The Dastardly]

What do the Tarot cards say?

[mikelink45]

I wish I could say we will be a lot better than that, but it actually projects the way I see it with the roster we currently have.  Lucky we are in the Central.  Pagan is projected to have 0.1 WAR - too high for me. 

[Doctor Gast]

BP should turn around 100%. Alcala should be a tremendous help hopefully after his year absence.

Our biggest short term hole is SS, hopefully that gets resolved. 2nd biggest short term & long term hole is catching, hopefully that gets resolved adequately.

I see  the rotation, offense, defense and especially the BP are more than adequate if they are managed properly. But additions can't hurt.

I project Buxton as playing in more games.

IMO SS can be simply  addressed even if we don't sign CC. Hopefully catching at least short term can be adequately addressed.

At this point I'm still optimistic but I'm waiting to see what happens with SS & catching.

[TopGunn#22]

This is pretty clear-headed.  Does this include Correa, or is this without him?  With the price for Correa exploding and Lewis and Brooks in the pipeline we just may need to get a catcher and Chris Bassitt and roll with Farmer.  One thing about Bassitt is that he's very consistent.  You probably won't see a CY Young season but you won't see a disaster either.  And he will eat innings, which is just what our rotation and BP need.  

[DocBauer]

Personally, I think they are a little light on the pen. A healthy Alcala and Thielbar should raise the floor some. But I think this also shows why one more really good, solid arm ro help the 7th-8th could go a long way.

I think I'd have to say they are a little light on the rotation as well. Various exams and 2 mri's show Mahle's shoulder is sound. He says weird offseason, short ST, and then trying to throw too many innings early tired his arm. I'm going with that until I see otherwise. I can buy Ober at 90IP or less if hurt. But he was healthy in 2021 and I could see 120+ in 2023 if he remains healthy again. Just hard for me to hear how good Maeda feels, how good his control was at the end of the last year while throwing on the side, see his history, and then not see him more than 90 IP. 

Are they a tiny bit light on Buxton? I hope so. But all in all, I can't find any major disagreements here. I just think they're a little low here and there.

[Linus]

I pay attention to zips projections the same amount as framing numbers. 

[RJA]

I think hometown fans are often too optimistic in evaluating their rosters, so having some projections is always a blast.  I hope I am wrong, but I think the starting rotation is not as good as many think, and the unknowns surrounding Kirilloff, Lewis, Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, and many others make this coming year hard to predict.  If everyone is healthy and playing well, it could be fun.  If not, it might be a long summer.  Let's hope the young pitching develops this year.  

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, RJA said:

I think hometown fans are often too optimistic in evaluating their rosters, so having some projections is always a blast.  I hope I am wrong, but I think the starting rotation is not as good as many think, and the unknowns surrounding Kirilloff, Lewis, Mahle, Maeda, Larnach, and many others make this coming year hard to predict.  If everyone is healthy and playing well, it could be fun.  If not, it might be a long summer.  Let's hope the young pitching develops this year.  

Id put the rotation as of today below adequate.  

[Wizard11]

The caveat to every hopeful Twins projection is “if they are healthy”.  The fan in me wants to believe that Mahle, Maeda, Lewis, Buxton, Gray, Ober, Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Polanco, Arraez, Alcala, etc. are all healthy.  The problem the logical part of me struggles with the question “When was the last time any team had this number of injured players all return to peak performance?”.  

[Minny505]

13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Id put the rotation as of today below adequate.  

Complete agree. While some see SS as the biggest hole, I see the rotation. 

If Rodon pitches 120 innings, he is still a 3 win improvement over their current 5th starter.

If Correa plays 140 games, he is maybe 2 wins better than a combination of Farmer, prospects, and/or a trade acquisition.

Correa is a higher floor, while Rodon is a higher ceiling. I'll take the upside of Rodon, especially on the contracts they are likely to get.