Rumor: Max Kepler Drawing Trade Interest

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Technically Gordon?  Gordon is our best performing all around outfielder and it’s not really close. 

He also plays infield though as well.  He can play 2nd, 3rd and short in a pinch.  That is all I meant he is not specifically outfield.

[Dman]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I doubt Miami wants someone as old as Kepler back right now.....but I could be wrong.

Yeah Miami is very money conscious.  More so that the Twins and Kep isn't exactly cheap.  Betting they would prefer someone younger with more control at less cost.  Maybe they could trade out salaries to get where need to be hard to say but I agree with you that Miami might be a tough sell for Kep.

[Dman]

5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

“The Twins have depth in the outfield with Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, Wallner, Garlick and technically Gordon. “. There is not a single player on this list that either doesn’t come with an injury history or has never proved they belong. Even though it’s only one year, I’ll give you Gordon. The rest are flyer prospects at this point. 

All I can tell you is they are all on the 40 man so if they aren't worthy of being depth then why do the Twins have them on there?  Wallner, Larnach and Garlick all had 700 OPS's last year and Kepler had a 666 OPS so can those guys that haven't proved they belong do much worse than that?  Even Kirilloff had a 650 OPS and he will get better in time if the wrist ever straightens out.  Celestino has some work to do IMO but he is still depth as long as he is one the 40 man.  Kepler has been injured himself over the years. It happens.  Kepler was unproven at one time as well.  Every player is unproven when they first start that doesn't mean they can't be good and won't make it or that they can't be better at the plate than Kepler.

If you think they should just DFA the guys who haven't proved they belong then I might see your point otherwise yeah the FO believes they are legitimate depth.  So I don't know that I understand your point.

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Throw in David Festa

No. I'm not trading our best minor league pitcher who is now throwing in the upper 90's with control. We need to quit trading away our best pitching (we got rid of two of our top LH starters in trades last summer) as they cost a fortune in free agency these days. 

[dxpavelka]

Kepler's not going to bring much in return.  He's likely worth more to us than he is  to others.  Others don't have to worry about the Larnachs and Kirilloffs of the world being on the IL by Patriots Day.

[Linus]

18 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is it possible that he plays RF because he is really good at it particularly in Target Field? Maybe he is somewhat better than Gordon in CF but a lot better in RF. Maybe keeping him in RF is better for the overall defense.

This is a good point. Right field in target field is tricky. Max handles it well probably substantially better than whoever fills in for him if he plays center. The hitting …..

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

15 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah Miami is very money conscious.  More so that the Twins and Kep isn't exactly cheap.  Betting they would prefer someone younger with more control at less cost.  Maybe they could trade out salaries to get where need to be hard to say but I agree with you that Miami might be a tough sell for Kep.

Maybe since we are flush with cash we pay for a good portion of Kep's salary to entice them.  We pay in $ + Kep and they pay in pitching quality.

[ashbury]

19 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Technically Gordon?  Gordon is our best performing all around outfielder and it’s not really close. 

His career is young, so perhaps he is one of the few players who will turn out to be able to sustain a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) at .340 like he had in 2022.  They exist (Goldschmidt, Yelich, Judge, Trout, to name some prominent ones)  Otherwise he seems like a candidate for regression to a lower level of offensive output, and I would not bank on him being anything close to our best performing outfielder in 2023.

I want to like Gordon, and I do like him, and I'll own up to being slow to rate him as a major leaguer, but I still hold some skepticism on him being more than a role player for the long term.

[Cris E]

The trick to trading Kepler at a point where his value is low is finding a team who REALLY believes in his chances for a bounce-back next year. Someone  who is certain the death of the shift or a new home field will let him blossom, or at least find 2019 again.  You're not going to hear teams saying something like that out loud in the papers, but if you talk to enough of them you'll get a couple who direct the conversation around to him to see if they can pick him up cheap. Sorting through those talks to get one GM hooked and eventually willing to pay what you want is the game in a deal for Max.  Not sure that it's actually out there, but working your way through the other teams is what it'll take (unless TOR or MIA leap at him in talks for the guys we want to get.) 

[JD-TWINS]

On 12/9/2022 at 11:38 AM, Musk21 said:

I'd be surprised if we can even get very much for Kepler.  Outside of 2019, he's been very pedestrian at the plate.  Sure, his defense is good in RF, but he has NO interest in playing CF.  Given the Twins' need in CF last year with Buxton out for extended time, Kepler played a total of 9 innings there.

2019, the year of the juiced ball. Max’s big power year and nothing sense. A guy that hits the ball as hard as he does with his speed , he should hit 32-40 doubles per year, with a normal ball. His approach is mediocre at the plate. Also, Kepler’s NEED in center is non-existent as you point out! Gordon can back-up Buxton.

He’s our starting RF in ‘23 unless FO is dumping salary & I don’t think that’s needed. Elimination of shift coupled with his defense in right & the oft injured potential replacements, we need to keep him another season.

Would you trade Kepler & expect Sonny Gray level arm with more team control in return? That’s what is being suggested in some of the other comments above - just not realistic!

[Eris]

I have never really understood the trade Max Kepler rumors. He is a well above average defensive outfielder, capable of filling in at CF with slightly below average offensive output.  His contract for 2023 is a very reasonable 8.5 million (compared to for example the 17.5 million 1 year contract that Cody Bellinger signed). 
 

Trading Max Kepler will not bring back the elite SP the Twins desperately need, but will make our outfield defense much worse. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

I have never really understood the trade Max Kepler rumors. He is a well above average defensive outfielder, capable of filling in at CF with slightly below average offensive output.  His contract for 2023 is a very reasonable 8.5 million (compared to for example the 17.5 million 1 year contract that Cody Bellinger signed). 
 

Trading Max Kepler will not bring back the elite SP the Twins desperately need, but will make our outfield defense much worse. 

Kepler does not have nearly the impact of an elite arm so they don't need to get back an elite arm for trading him for the trade to be a good move.  What if they get an MLB ready catcher?  IDK who that would be, but the point remains.  Making room to play Wallner could (not should) improve the team regardless of the return.  Those are the kind of moves that have made Oakland/Tampa successful.

[bap3141]

The reason I'm not chomping at the bit to trade Max is because his value is low. He doesn't cost a ton and the potential for a rebound is solid.  For his career, he averages 25 HR per 162 and gets you a solid OBP along with good defense. With the shift rules in place, he might even hit .250 - .255. If he does rebound, his value will be much stronger in season and could be moved if the other OFs pan out. If he not, he's not crushing the payroll.

 

2019 will likely end up being his career year but the Twins don't need 2019 Max to make his salary play.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Let me change he discussion a little Does a team with Max Kepler starting every day contend for a title? Not unless he REALLY improves at the plate, and definitely not if he's hitting in the top 6 in the order. Do the Twins chances to contend improve if he's traded and Wallner, Larnach or Gordon play RF every day? Hard to know since we don't know what we're getting back in a trade or whether any of the other 3 will be an improvement.  

Here's what we do know. The Twins are not good enough to contend with the current roster, even if we re-sign Correa. We need to look at every avenue to improve, including trading a vet like Kepler as part of package to get a return to shore up the pitching staff or catching. A trade also has the ancillary value of giving another guy who might turn out to be better a place to play. That's why I say shop Kepler and if you can improve the team by shoring up a weak point absolutely make the trade. No need to dump him just to create a spot; but definitely trade him if can get pitching or catching in return.  

[jorgenswest]

If a team were interested in a left handed bat that is a good defender in right field why not sign Joey Gallo and keep their prospects? The salary isn’t that different. Any team that would trade prospects to take on Kepler’s contract could have signed Gallo instead. It seems like the trade match for Kepler is a team that needs to offload some salary and take back Kepler.

Would the Giants want to save some dollars by exchanging Crawford for Kepler and then adding a few prospects? How about Doctor Gast’s suggestion of a straight up deal for Marquez saving the Rockies some money?

Where else can the Twins add a helpful piece for the short term by taking on a salary and maybe getting some prospects in return?