No More Half Measures: Twins Must Commit to Uncomfortable Winter

[Nash Walker]

The Twins, coming off another losing season in front of the smallest (non-pandemic) crowd in Target Field history, are at a critical point in the franchise’s trajectory.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

 

It’s not always wise to judge fan morale from social media. If we did, though, it’d be easy to see that Twins Territory is unhappy with the current product. Why wouldn’t they be? The Twins haven’t won a playoff game since I was four years old. They haven’t won a playoff series since I was two. 

After a long and grueling rebuild post-2010, it looked as though the Twins were emerging from the pits. The 2019 team won 101 games behind – yes, Nelson Cruz – but also the core Twins fans had heard about for so long. Miguel Sanó was a monster in the second half, Max Kepler was Twins Daily’s team MVP, and Jorge Polanco was an All-Star. Byron Buxton and José Berrios also shined, furthering excitement for the future. 

 

To call the next page a letdown would be an understatement. The Twins won the Central again in the shortened 2020 season but once again bowed out early in a playoff sweep to the Astros. They haven’t recovered. In back-to-back seasons, the Twins have missed the playoffs and won less than 80 games. 

The picture of a treacherous 2021 is the faces of Alexander Colomé, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Andrelton Simmons, all half measure additions who flopped beyond belief. It was similar in 2022, with Emilio Pagán, Joe Smith, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy failing to make a positive impact. The short-term, marginal moves have exploded violently. 

It’s true that the Twins lost quite a few players to long-term injuries in both of those seasons. It’s also undeniable that the team’s rotation is the deepest it has been on paper under the Derek Falvey regime. The club does have some exciting young talent, including Jhoan Durán, José Miranda, Joe Ryan, Royce Lewis and a 25-year-old Luis Arraez. Brooks Lee is on his way and Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson showed they are ready to help the cause. 

 

For all of those reasons, it’s imperative the Twins add impact talent this offseason. It’s time to find an identity and preferably one built around the star-studded pair of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. The Twins need winning ballplayers to lead the hopeful Buxton-Lewis-Lee-Miranda era. No more half measures. 

It’s difficult to feel much optimism about the oft-injured 2023 roster. It’s not hard to see it going well, though, if the team has a productive offseason and better health. The 2022 Twins, with Bundy and Archer stapled in the rotation, were tied for first place in the Central on September 4th. They led the division for much of the summer. This division is quite the opposite of intimidating, even with Cleveland’s special season and the addition of Josh Bell. 

The longer the Twins fail to win in the playoffs, the more fans doubt they ever will. It has to happen now. With Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda all entering free agency after the season, the Twins’ urgency to add long-term, impact solutions should be busting at the seams. 

 

The type of winter the Twins need requires them to get out of their comfort zone, both in ownership and in the front office. This is not a “desperate times call for desperate measures” situation but more of an opportunity to grow in the face of extreme uncertainty and doubt. 

The Twins need to fully commit to winning in 2023. No more half measures.

View full article

[nicksaviking]

After seeing the contracts average players like Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon and Brandon Nimmo got, I think the baseball community just has to accept the new reality and adjust their mindsets about free agency. 
 

These players are not going to get easier to sign. Do it now, it might be much pricier even next year.

[TNTwinsFan]

Gotta sign Correa. Full Stop.

[Minderbinder]

Boras is cheese, but I don't think the Twins FO will rise to the bait.  I no longer believe Correa will sign with the Twins.  Cue the media misery and cutting FO comments.  The Twins have some good, young SS talent in the pipeline and it may just be time to roll with what we have.

As for the low turnout last year at Target Field, I'm going to say this and take my lumps.  I didn't go to the ballpark last year because of a) the product on the field didn't show up half the time, and b) the neighborhood's not that friendly anymore.  Just saying.

[EGFTShaw]

Do we have a solid core of players coming through our system?

Yep.

Is that enough?

Nope.

TV contract is up after 2023 I believe.

Now is the time to bring in, AND PAY FOR, the players that will push us forward.

C4.  I'll settle for Dansby, but he is not going to excite the fanbase in the same manner.  C4 brings not only the on-field talent, but the extras for the clubhouse, teammates and coaches, not to mention the fans.

Maybe Vasquez comes in as a catcher to work with Jeffers.

The pitching staff has good potential.  I saw a post about have 5-6 pitchers who are 2 & 3s vs having the traditional 1-5 staff.  If we can get the Top of the Staff #1 this isn't the end.

It starts with C4.

On a gambling side note:  Hire Nelson Cruz to train Sano, (Sano signed on a minor league deal maybe) and get his physique under control.  Then find the best hitting coach anywhere, (I don't care if it is Majors, Minors, College...etc.) to get his swing back).  This would be chump change.  Also have Sano's eyesight checked.  You do not fall that far without a reason.  I think first and foremost it is his conditioning, then perhaps his vision and at this point also his psyche.
I'm donning my fireman's suit at the inevitable flames I'll get for this last part.

 

[Whitey333]

People keep saying sign Correa to entice fans to ballpark.  Where were they last year?  He was with the team all of last year but yet they had their lowest, non covid years, attendance in Target Field history.  Maybe without him attendance would have been much lower, who knows?  Winning brings fans more than anything.  Signing Correa and doing nothing else except relying on oft injured and many unproven over hyped players is a recipe for disaster.

[DJL44]

This article reads like "this is a list of people who recently played for the Twins".

[old nurse]

No more halfway measures. Was trading for Gray, Paddack, Lopez and Fulmer halfway measures?  They did not all work out. San Diego made moves, they worked. Fans came out. Texas made moves. They did not work, attendance remained the same. There are excuses why attendance is down but Al Davis was correct.  The thing is that there is the talent there on the team, there is the matter of luck.  There are only about 30-40 pitchers every year that make all of their starts. None of them were Twins. There were only 130 qualified batters per fangraphs, only 3 were Twins.  The halfway problem is finding players that stay on the field

[Mark G]

36 minutes ago, Thebigalguy said:

Some of the attendance problem had to do with the law-and-order problem in Minneapolis. Suburbanites read horror stories and find entertainment in the burbs. Hopefully, 2023 is a different story, less crime and less tabloid sensationalism. In addition, baseball fans tend to be older in general, and Covid was still a concern in seats too close together. Then the Twins traded their probable closer just before Opening Day. Dumb moves like that don't inspire ticket sales. Pagan's blown saves were the icing on the cake. I was embarrassed for the team in September. when they lost 7 of 8 to Cleveland. Instead of building to a crescendo, the season whimpered to an end. Correa took the hint and declared himself a free man, which was likely to happen anyway. Now, the only glimmer of hope is a new trainer who might keep players healthy and an end to the shift so Kepler can get back on track. Let's face it A team that we hate, the Astros, knows what they're doing. The Twins are still whistling Dixie out of key in the dark.

I concur pretty much across the board.

When I was young, I would go to 8 - 10 games a year pretty regularly.  Back then I knew the team, I knew who was going to play that day, who was going to pitch, and unless they got bombed early, they would be in the game quite a while.  Today I have no idea who is going to play today, where each player will be on the field or in the lineup, how long the starter will last, and how many RP's are going to go in and out.  If I am going to watch a team of 20 or so players go around like musical chairs, with certain players left out on any given day, I will do it from my living room with remote in hand.  I love the sport, more than any other (well, I do like pro bowling a lot too, but I digress), but I am only willing to pay the prices they charge for virtually everything if I genuinely think I know what I am paying for.  And I just don't know those things anymore, so I watch from my couch and I have become the best arm chair manager in town.  Ask anyone.  ?

[saviking]

Sorry, but there are very few free agents available that interest me. I love our young players and would rather spend a season calling up as many as possible to get THEM seasoned and to find out which ones are keepers. Then come back to next years free agency and see if you can make a few key moves. 

[JD-TWINS]

FO PLEASE ACT:

Catcher: O. Narváez is the LH platoon option with Jeffers……..3 yrs. at @ $7 million/yr……if he’s not available, Vasquez for $4 million/yr.

Starter: Chris Bassitt is the innings eater, front end starter, 3 yrs. @ $22 million/yr…….even if we make a run & Mets meet the Qualifying Offer, we’re trying!

Relief: M. Fulmer 2 yrs. @ $8 million/yr. as good as there is left & known quantity 

SS: J. Iglecias 2 yrs. @ $8 million as a placeholder for 1 of our 3 prospects in farm system.

$45 million total and we’re offering $35 million to Correa with what we know will be a wasted last 3-4 years. These 4 guys strengthen us all over the diamond & allows for prospects to help in ‘24 & beyond.

These signings show a PLAN & would generate Anticipation, Excitement, Wins, & Attendance!! $ back to Team to pay for investment.

[Blyleven2011]

Half measures seems to be the norm ...

Competitive plan ( the norm ) ...

Contenders ( not in their vocabulary  ) ...

[NotAboutWinning]

If you want to bring fans back to the park, put an exciting product on the field! And that is not necessarily the most expensive product. I've been a Twins fan for 55+ years (yes, I am old). I've watched some Twins teams that may not have been anywhere near elite, but they left everything on the field! Let the kids play, steal some bases, run out every contact and put pressure on the other team's defense! When a pitcher is hot, don't kill the momentum because he has reached his pitch count! Baldelli-ball is dull and uninspiring ?

[Minny505]

I agree with all the half measure guys listed except Simmons. That one is a bit of revisionism to the history.

When Simmons was signed, there was a "We finally have a real SS!" attitude around Twins Territory. He was projected to be a 2 WAR player. That's a solid signing.

It didn't work out of course, as he was the biggest flop in free agency that season, turning in a negative WAR and underperforming projections by 2.5+ WAR. Nobody saw THAT kind of cliff coming up ahead.

The rest of the guys on that list were expected to be somewhere on the spectrum of bad-to-not-bad. Simmons was expected to be average-to-above-average. That's a huge gap in expectations.

Before they ever suited up, Simmons signing was viewed similarly to the Nelson Cruz FA signing. The performance during their first seasons though could not have been more different. 

[roger]

Count me among those who will be encouraged when Boras announces Correa has signed and it is not with the Twins.  I am comfortable with Farmer manning short until Lewis returns, hopefully, sometime in June.  Have always believed in Lewis becoming a star and his brief stint last year sure as heck confirmed that belief.  Thus, have zero interest in signing Correa to a 10-year deal which will destroy this team in the late 2020's, just when all these young kids need to be signed to extensions to keep the gang together. 

The needs I see are a better than Jeffers catcher and one good late inning reliever.  I believe with a bit of luck health wise the Twins can compete to win the Central and be competitive in the playoffs.  As for the starting staff, I will repeat my belief that I don't care about an ACE.  Give me three very good #2-#3 starters to make the next three starts and the Twins will win a lot of games.  All indications are they have three, if not four, good #2/#3 arms.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, TNTwinsFan said:

Gotta sign Correa. Full Stop.

Why full stop? Getting Rodon would be just as, if not more, valuable.

Correa to the Giants means Crawford is available to be traded for by the Twins. A SS platoon of Crawford and Farmer is projected to be about 3 WAR for $14mil for one season. Correa would be better, but would cost twice as much and would be a 10yr commitment. The gap for 2023 is less than 2 WAR.

Rodon is replacing Ober, 1 WAR pitcher. Rodon is projected to be just as valuable as Correa, but he makes up a gap of 3+ wins. 

For roughly the same amount of money, but for half the years, the Twins can improve by about 2 more WAR by signing Rodon instead of Correa. Those 2 wins are valuable.

I will half agree with you and say the Twins need to sign Correa OR Rodon, full stop. That does need to happen. 

But Correa is not the only answer here...and he may not even be the best.

[Rosterman]

I keep wondering what kind of contract Byron Buxton may have gotten from someone else last season. Sheesh. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The opening sentence is not accurate.  Both total attendance and per game attendance were lower in 2021 then they were in 2022.

We can discuss the reasons for that, but I do not believe the on-field product is completely to blame for the lower numbers.  Some context is warranted.

 

[Doctor Gast]

"It’s not always wise to judge fan morale from social media"

My impression is people can be very influenced with positive & negative hype through social media. I agree that there a lot of people are down on the Twins but the reasons why? are wide ranged & very different.

My take right now is that Correa never really wanted to go to LAD because of the constant slack he'd (and his family) get from the fans. If he went to SD or SF he'd get the slack at least when he plays LAD. I believe he really wants to play in MN and he's using these team to milk MN as much as possible for as long as possible. If it's close he'd go to MN.

I'd still say if we offer a heavy incentive based high end contract close what Judge signed. IMO the players don't really need the $100MMs , it's more of a  the pride of recognition of worth. They said that no elite MLB player would ever take a heavy incentive based salary. They said the same thing about Buxton and that he didn't want to stay in MN. If Correa really wants to stay, he may take it. If not, we can't afford him and then go to our other options.

SF is still a threat, if the Cubs really wants Correa they could be our greater threat.

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

By the way, this article reads like we are the Detroit Lions.  

The Twins have been in the playoffs 3 of the past 6 years.  They should have gone last year as well.  Don't act like the world is over because we aren't spending $250m every year on payroll.

Do I want them to spend more?  Yes.  But even if they don't they will still be in the playoff chase.

[Mike Sixel]

They signed CC and traded for at least four pitchers last year.....I'm baffled anyone thinks last year was a half measure. Utterly baffled. I do agree that they should be going for it this year, given the status of their pitchers and FA......but it takes two to tango, as they say. They might try very hard, but even Aaron Judge only succeeds 30 some percent of the time....Not that I'm going to give them a pass. If they strike out on the top guys, they better still improve in other ways.

As for attendance, that is largely correlated to the previous year. Well, we all know how the previous year went....

If the Twins are winning and the news stops portraying downtown as a hell hole, people will come. 

[Unwinder]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They signed CC and traded for at least four pitchers last year.....I'm baffled anyone thinks last year was a half measure. Utterly baffled.

I recall a lot of people on here holding their breath for another starter last offseason and feeling let down when Paddack was it and Montas was still in Oakland. Oh yeah, and there was a lot of angst when the Twins didn't make any moves before the lockout. But it was definitely way more of a go-for-it year than the front office gets credit for. Problem was the results (and arguably the gambles on injury risks) not unwillingness to make big moves.

[TwinsRealist]

53 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

By the way, this article reads like we are the Detroit Lions.  

The Twins have been in the playoffs 3 of the past 6 years.  They should have gone last year as well.  Don't act like the world is over because we aren't spending $250m every year on payroll.

Do I want them to spend more?  Yes.  But even if they don't they will still be in the playoff chase.

The Twins have the longest postseason losing streak in all major sports...

They are an absolute joke. And in what universe "should" they have been in the playoffs last year?!

[Stew]

I like one of the contributes to one these articles . He said we could trade either polanko or arreaz, and Martin and Richardson. For Lopez and there best minor league catcher. We also could use paddock or pagain as trade pieces. I have little faith in either. We can look for a trade of Kepler too. Last year at our highest total we were at 144 million. We are currently at 94 million. Could be 71 million if we trade these guys. Enough for Correa, Lopez, and maybe a half way good catcher.

[Azviking101]

Also they can’t sign Correa at 350 million then fill in the rest of the roster with more cheap junk. Fans won’t tune in for that, and no team will fear this team.

however if they were to go with one of the below options that would make this team a contender

Correa, Bassitt, Vazquez, Taylor Rogers / Chafin, 70-80 aav

or

Swanson, Rodon, Vazquez, Rogers/Chafin

70-80 aav

[bap3141]

2 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Baldelli-ball is dull and uninspiring ?

Bingo! Aside from his silly managing of his starting pitching, and odd bullpen decisions, his lineups are all over the place and often don't make much sense.

Can't stand Baldelli.

Having said that, I still catch a game or two every year. Target Field is my favorite place on Earth.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

41 minutes ago, TwinsRealist said:

The Twins have the longest postseason losing streak in all major sports...

They are an absolute joke. And in what universe "should" they have been in the playoffs last year?!

Years since last playoff appearance:
Phillies - 10
Tigers - 8
Angels - 8
Royals - 7
Pirates - 7
Rangers - 6

An absolute joke?  I think your vitriol needs some perspective... 

Again, the Twins have been in the playoffs 3 times in the last 6 years.  Last year they were in 1st place on Aug 7.  They were 1 game out on Sept 5.  It is not hard to argue that they should have made the playoffs last year.

You can complain about them falling apart at the end of the season.  You can complain about them losing in the playoffs.  But I think any of those teams listed above would rather be in our shoes than their own when it comes to results.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

FO PLEASE ACT:

Catcher: O. Narváez is the LH platoon option with Jeffers……..3 yrs. at @ $7 million/yr……if he’s not available, Vasquez for $4 million/yr.

Starter: Chris Bassitt is the innings eater, front end starter, 3 yrs. @ $22 million/yr…….even if we make a run & Mets meet the Qualifying Offer, we’re trying!

Relief: M. Fulmer 2 yrs. @ $8 million/yr. as good as there is left & known quantity 

SS: J. Iglecias 2 yrs. @ $8 million as a placeholder for 1 of our 3 prospects in farm system.

$45 million total and we’re offering $35 million to Correa with what we know will be a wasted last 3-4 years. These 4 guys strengthen us all over the diamond & allows for prospects to help in ‘24 & beyond.

These signings show a PLAN & would generate Anticipation, Excitement, Wins, & Attendance!! $ back to Team to pay for investment.

Interesting that you have Narvaez as getting a bigger deal than Vasquez. I'd guess those numbers are inverse in the end and Vasquez gets the bigger deal.

FYI, the Mets can't "meet the qualifying offer." That's not how it works in baseball. The Mets are in the same negotiating boat as everyone else when it comes to Bassitt. They just get a draft pick, and the Twins lose one, if we sign him. They can't match the offer and automatically get him. Bassitt also rumored to be demanding at least 4 years. And probably north of 22 with how the market is going right now.

I like Fulmer coming back.

I've seen a number of people suggest signing Iglesias and I'm fascinated by it. What is the motivation for signing a guy who's no better than the guy they already traded for?

I'd bring Correa back on a pretty massive deal, but to each their own.

[nicksaviking]

*****Moderator Note*****
Knock it off with the political propaganda. 

[Beast]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Years since last playoff appearance:
Phillies - 10
Tigers - 8
Angels - 8
Royals - 7
Pirates - 7
Rangers - 6

An absolute joke?  I think your vitriol needs some perspective... 

Again, the Twins have been in the playoffs 3 times in the last 6 years.  Last year they were in 1st place on Aug 7.  They were 1 game out on Sept 5.  It is not hard to argue that they should have made the playoffs last year.

You can complain about them falling apart at the end of the season.  You can complain about them losing in the playoffs.  But I think any of those teams listed above would rather be in our shoes than their own when it comes to results.

You think the Phillies’ fans would trade places with Twins’ fans?  Lol.  No way.  Add the Angels to that list.  Probably even the Rangers.

Their FOs are aggressive and give fans hope.  The Angels currently have arguably 2 of the 3 best players on the planet.  The Rangers are signing everybody.  It would be fun as hell.  Nobody cares about squeaking out the worst division in baseball and getting absolutely pulverized out of the playoffs.

2 of the last 3 you mentioned have won the World Series more recently.  All have won a playoff game more recently.

Nobody on the planet is envious of Twins’ fans, dude.  We’re thought of in the same category as the Pirates, Royals, etc.  Cannon fodder for teams that invest in their players.