Rumor: Twins, Marlins 'kicking the tires' on a potential Lopez trade?

[bap3141]

9 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Wouldn't signing one of the remaining free agent starting pitchers make more sense? I am not talking about Rodon.

Absolutely!! Because Pablo Lopez is not a great pitcher.

[SwainZag]

I wouldn't mind having Lopez, I just don't think he's THAT great of a get.  Before this season his previous high in innings was 111, his overall numbers and K numbers dropped from his great 2021 season.  If you take out his nearly unhittable 23 inning of April baseball last year, he was more or less average the rest of the year.

I'm not saying I wouldn't like having him on the staff, but would hate to see Arraez and more go for him personally.

[Mike Sixel]

Sure, I'd rather have a better pitcher. Can people name an available one? 

[tony&rodney]

Every individual has their view - Pablo Lopez is an excellent starting pitcher or Pablo Lopez isn't that good. 

Hopefully, the Twins have some means to evaluate talent correctly and acquire a starting pitcher. I like Lopez.

[Shaitan]

How long until his shoulder surgery?

[dxpavelka]

We always want the big splash deals and we're always shocked at the price those deals entail.  This one would be no different.

[solomon1930]

3 hours ago, Joey Self said:

Agreed.  I made the trip to Cleveland to see the Twins play 5 games in 4 days, and while I understand the fallacy of a small sample size, I got to see Varland, Ober, Winder and Ryan start the first four games.  (Sonny Gray had the fifth and left after two innings.)  With Mahle, Gray, Maeda and Ryan as the core, and those three other rookies plus Richardson, Sands and others, I think we have enough starters to resist trading one of the best hitters on the team.  

Now if it were Arraez for a catcher, I'd not be thrilled, but I'd understand it.  

JcS

I live in the Dayton area and was considering doing that also but in the end I couldn't get away.

 

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, miller761 said:

Wouldn't signing one of the remaining free agent starting pitchers make more sense? I am not talking about Rodon.

Chris Bassitt is waiting for an offer.

[WhenWillWeBeatNY]

Just sign Chris Bassitt especially when we miss out on Correa which is looking more and more likely. Bassitt for 3 years 65 million I think gets it done. He has been healthy his last 4 years and has better stats than Lopez. Why trade away a great player in Arraez when a free agent is right there especially when we have the money. 

[weitz41]

11 hours ago, miller761 said:

Wouldn't signing one of the remaining free agent starting pitchers make more sense? I am not talking about Rodon.

This.

Lopez is a good pitcher but I don't think he's that much if at all better then some of the FA pitchers out there. 

[mikelink45]

The Twins are in on Correa, they are discussing trades, they are watching players sign with other teams.  At least it provides some talking points. 

[raindog]

I can’t believe people think Arraez would get it done for Lopez. I’m even more surprised people think that would be a bad deal for the Twins. 

[Squirrel]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

We always want the big splash deals and we're always shocked at the price those deals entail.  This one would be no different.

Yep. We see trade scenarios on these pages frequently that are quantity of our fringe players for a quality/star player on another team. It doesn't work that way. Never has, never will. You have to give to get.

[Ted Schwerzler]

16 hours ago, raindog said:

Has Ted broken any kind of news before? I’m very skeptical. 

Short memory? 

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

21 minutes ago, raindog said:

I can’t believe people think Arraez would get it done for Lopez. I’m even more surprised people think that would be a bad deal for the Twins. 

From what I’ve been told, the original parameters were a 4 for 3 deal, Twins giving up 3. Would be one Major Leaguer and the rest all prospects aside from Lopez. That structure could change or not get done at all. Won’t name names until I hear more that it actually gets completed. I’d also be worried about medicals/physical for Arraez and those knees.

[gman]

10 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

From what I’ve been told, the original parameters were a 4 for 3 deal, Twins giving up 3. Would be one Major Leaguer and the rest all prospects aside from Lopez. That structure could change or not get done at all. Won’t name names until I hear more that it actually gets completed. I’d also be worried about medicals/physical for Arraez and those knees.

Interesting, but the Marlins really need hitting and they do seem to have a surplus(bad word) of starting pitcher types.

[Ted Schwerzler]

22 minutes ago, gman said:

Interesting, but the Marlins really need hitting and they do seem to have a surplus(bad word) of starting pitcher types.

Reports were there that they made Luzardo and Cabrera available as well. Alcantara certainly isn’t going anywhere, but yes there should be a match.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

1 hour ago, raindog said:

I can’t believe people think Arraez would get it done for Lopez. I’m even more surprised people think that would be a bad deal for the Twins. 

Arraez is the reigning batting champion and was a finalist for the Gold Glove at 1st base.....doesn't that (perhaps add Balazovic) get you Lopez (not an ace, but solid #2-3)?  I think we vastly underrate Arraez.

[Steve Lein]

Losing Arraez in a trade would feel bad because he's a universal fan-favorite (myself included). But that's kind of the issue when evaluating any deal with him in it. We very likely could be overvaluing him.

That said, I don't think anything else of much substance needs to be added to a deal with Arraez in it for Pablo Lopez. He's not a better potential pitcher than, in my opinion, four guys already on the staff in Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Heck, Bailey Ober was arguably as good or better (when healthy) in 2022 than Lopez was as well.

So, I don't see the necessity here to go after Lopez. I'd be shooting for a potential improvement on what is already here (e.g.: Rodon) or someone just as good (e.g.: Bassitt) which they can get without sending off the best hitter in baseball.

A deal with Arraez in it that I would want to see would also include a prospect or two in our top 10 to land that Bluefin from the ocean instead of the walleye from our 10,000 lakes (to borrow Boras' metaphor).

[Steve Lein]

2 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Reports were there that they made Luzardo and Cabrera available as well. Alcantara certainly isn’t going anywhere, but yes there should be a match.

I would highly prefer Luzardo or Cabrera to Lopez, especially in anything where Arraez is something the Twins send.

[tony&rodney]

I have only watched the Miami pitchers on video, never in person and not more than ten times. Thus, my opinion is very narrow on the Marlin guys mentioned. That said, I feel each comes with superior upside to the current cast of Twins starters. I also have some strong optimism concerning the abilities of some Twins prospects at the plate (Wallner, Lewis, Martin, Julien). I'm open to dealing combinations of players to get one or two pitchers. Larnach, Miranda, Arraez, and others such as Kepler, Polanco, and Jeffers are all available; pretty much anyone in a fair trade. It shouldn't require more than an Arraez, Larnach/Kepler, Winder/Ober plus A ball player to trade for Lopez and Cabrera, but the two teams should match up for a deal. I'm open to whatever parameters Falvey finds.

[LA VIkes Fan]

11 hours ago, WhenWillWeBeatNY said:

Just sign Chris Bassitt especially when we miss out on Correa which is looking more and more likely. Bassitt for 3 years 65 million I think gets it done. He has been healthy his last 4 years and has better stats than Lopez. Why trade away a great player in Arraez when a free agent is right there especially when we have the money. 

Agree on Bassitt but the word is he wants 4 years and won't sign for 3. He's 34 years old. Question to all - Would you give him the same or a slightly better deal than Tijuan Walker who got 4 years, 72M? Maybe 4 years, 75-80m?  Answer assuming that a 3 year deal is not possible, that some team will give him 4. I would give him the 4th year. 

[talkintwins]

Pablo Lopez, 27 next season, is fine. However, he carries the sort of injury baggage the Twins would be wise to avoid. Shoulder injuries have hampered his durability and performance. Why invite more risk when they'd only have two seasons to extract as much value as possible? Arraez's knee issues are likely easier to address than a pitcher's throwing shoulder.

Lopez's MLB innings since his debut:

• 2018: 58.2 (called-up later in year)
• 2019: 111.1
• 2020: 57.1 (shortened 60-game season)
• 2021: 102.2
• 2022: 180.0

Lopez is a free agent after the 2024 season. Spotrac estimates his 2023 salary to be $6,285,987. He had a great start in 2022... for one month. His low FIP over the season was largely driven by a luck-fuelled April - must be nice to have 94.1% of runners LOB. His ERA in April+May was 1.83. The remaining four months, his ERA was 4.69. Worth a deeper look.

Meanwhile, LHP Jesus Luzardo, 25, is a free agent after the 2025 season and will be paid $2.1M in 2023. He has a high ceiling with some risk. He suffered a midseason forearm strain this past year and had rotator cuff problems in 2019 which haven't been a known issue since. FWIW, had Tommy John surgery pre-draft in 2016.

LHP Trevor Rogers, 25, battled a midseason back injury and a late-season grade 1 lat strain. Nothing alarming. He is making league minimum in 2023.

As I've advocated in a recent video on my channel, Trevor Rogers is a buy-low opportunity for a team like the Twins. Still has high upside, is a power lefty, and his issues so far aren't problematic. Plenty of time to work with him on making some adjustments. He's not currently projected to make the Marlins' rotation and has been passed in the depth chart by Eury Perez. The Marlins have considerable rotation depth with a higher ceiling than Minnesota's depth.

Whether it's Arraez or someone else being moved, Trevor Rogers should be a trade target and *might* cost less to acquire than Lopez and his storied FIP.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like where this is going.  Trade with a team in the Marlins which have SP'ing depth.  It seems that they have several targets other than Lopez.  I'd hate to see Arraez go, but you have to give to get so I'd be on board.  I like the suggestion of Arraez and Kepler for him so we can retain our upcoming prospects.

I just hope that if the Twins do swing a trade, that the new trainer does a good job of evaluating our return so we are not acquiring a Tommy John candidate.

[Huskertwin]

21 hours ago, Muppet said:

Call me a cynic, but ... do we really need starting pitching? I'd rather have Arreaz. First show me that the new trainer isn't going to magically  make pitchers break their arms within their first five games as a Twin.  For a lot of the season, when the pitchers were great, the offence wouldn't score. Twins have some decent starters already, but they need to give them run support. And innings. 

I agree with this. Our hitting was horrible far too often last year. Taking Arreaz's bat out (along with the walks he takes) would leave a bigger hole than adding one starting pitcher who pitches every 5th game. The Twins need to develop some quality pitching of their own. 

[bap3141]

2 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

I would highly prefer Luzardo or Cabrera to Lopez, especially in anything where Arraez is something the Twins send.

Agreed! All this Pablo Lopez love is silly.

[bap3141]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

 

I just hope that if the Twins do swing a trade, that the new trainer does a good job of evaluating our return so we are not acquiring a Tommy John candidate.

You're asking for the imposssible. Every pitcher is a Tommy John candidate.

[dex8425]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, I'd rather have a better pitcher. Can people name an available one? 

No. Uhhh...Greinke? He was more valuable than any of the Twins starters last year. Sadly. Eovaldi? 

I'm meh on Lopez. He's not a clear upgrade to the rotation to me other than depth. He's another #2-3 starter and we have three of those already. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, dex8425 said:

No. Uhhh...Greinke? He was more valuable than any of the Twins starters last year. Sadly. Eovaldi? 

I'm meh on Lopez. He's not a clear upgrade to the rotation to me other than depth. He's another #2-3 starter and we have three of those already. 

I'd love to have another #2 starter. I can't see how that would be bad. 

I get there are doubters, but people seem higher on a Marlins' pitcher that was worse last year.

[dex8425]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I'd love to have another #2 starter. I can't see how that would be bad. 

I get there are doubters, but people seem higher on a Marlins' pitcher that was worse last year.

It's bad if you have to give up one of your best bats. Lopez is definitely solid, but I thought the same thing about Mahle. 

I'd rather sign Greinke or Chris Bassitt, although Bassitt reportedly wants a 4 year deal, which would be dumb.