Will the Real Joe Ryan Please Stand Up

[Ted Schwerzler]

Maybe more than any other time in recent history, the Minnesota Twins seem to have legitimate pitching depth. They still are probably looking for another top-tier starter to cement the group, but there are options. Among them, 2022 rookie Joe Ryan emerged, but only in certain situations. What version of Ryan can Minnesota expect in 2023?

 

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine decided to flip Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, there was little downside. He was trending downward and not getting younger. While the Tampa Bay Rays often have a plethora of strong prospects, it’s not often they move one that works out against them. Although Joe Ryan may have faced a roster crunch in Tampa, he immediately burst onto the scene for the Twins.

In just five big-league starts in 2021, Ryan looked the part of a big-league arm. There were definitely bumps along the way, but it was assumed he’d be a part of the 2022 Opening Day rotation. Even after acquiring Sonny Gray, Rocco Baldelli decided that it would be Ryan who made the first start of 2022. When the dust settled last year, Ryan put up a strong 3.55 ERA and was arguably the team’s healthiest arm.

Hidden behind the strong numbers are an opportunity for more, however, and unlocking that in 2023 could be key.

There was reason to believe that Ryan had another step up from the limited sample in 2021. Despite not being a velocity-reliant pitcher, he posted a 3.43 FIP and 10.1 K/9. Last season his 3.99 FIP was a bit worse, but he still tallied a solid 9.2 K/9 and worked around the longball. The former Tampa prospect has done a great job forcing opposing batters into situations where he can emerge victorious, and it’s helped to strengthen his overall production.

What remains to be seen is whether Ryan can put it together against stiff competition.

It is fair to note that the AL Central may be the worst division in baseball. Cleveland took the trophy despite being seen as an afterthought. Chicago should have been better but should now be on a downswing. Both the Tigers and Royals have promise, but it remains to be seen how quickly they can put it together. In short, the division will continue to be advantageous for the Twins hurler.

Outside of it is another issue entirely. Facing a World Series winning Astros team in May, Ryan gave up four runs and recorded just 12 outs. Seattle got him for another four runs in just 4 2/3 innings during June before the Padres put up a 10-spot to round out July. In August, he gave up six runs (five earned) to the Dodgers, and the Yankees knocked him out after four runs in four innings in September. Against teams with winning records, things didn’t go so well.

The easiest way to break that down is to suggest that better lineups are harder to pitch against. That should be obvious, but that is where Ryan needs to find tweaks to his approach over the winter. As Minnesota again has postseason aspirations, those are the teams they must beat, and the same teams they’ll face over the course of an elimination series.

It’s probably not fair to believe Ryan will ever have the makings of an ace given his stuff. He certainly could be a solid number three starter though, and what keeps him being more than a back-end arm is competing no matter who steps into the box.

Another step forward in 2023 would be huge for the Twins youngster, and it would go a long way towards helping to carry a rotation that needs arms to step up.

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[CRF]

In my opinion, he's a solid middle of the rotation guy...and there sure isn't anything wrong with that. He might even end up being a little better than that.  

[EGFTShaw]

Well he was a rookie who put up a 3.55ERA 

I think he has the mindset to get better and will get better. #1?  Way way to much expectation for a guy going into his 2nd year.  But I’ll go in record barring injury he will be our #2 guy regardless of who we sign in the offseason  

great pickup for 2 months of Nelson Cruz 

 

[mikelink45]

I have great hope for Ryan, but he is not the ACE or number 2.  Realistic expectations are essential. 

[roger]

What a fantastic return for Cruz.  Almost think the Twins should sign an older big bat with a one year contract every winter.  Then flip him in July. What a way to restock the system.

I expect Ryan to take another step forward this spring.  Expect a normal winter will be big for him.  Another advantage is he just might be slotted as the Twins #4 starter…Gray, Mahle, Maeda. Ryan and Ober.  Could win lots of games against other teams #4 starters.  That’s assuming Rocco let’s him pitch 5 innings.  But didn’t he let Ryan go deep into games a couple times at the end of the season?

[theBOMisthebomb]

I didn't realize/had forgotten that Joe pitched that poorly against winning teams. If he can clean that up a bit, the overall numbers might really shine. Joe Ryan is my guy, I recently learned he pitched in college at California State University, Northridge (CSUN). My dad graduated from CSUN and I was born in Northridge. 

[Mark G]

"Will the Real Joe Ryan Please Stand Up"

Maybe the answer is what we have seen so far is the real Joe Ryan.  Good enough stuff to beat the Tigers like an old rug, but not top to bottom lineups that all pitchers eventually have to go against.  From the times I have seen him pitch he appears to live and die with the high fastball, trying to get hitters to chase.  Disciplined hitters/lineups who do not chase are giving him fits when he is forced to bring it down.  He can still get hitters out when his location is sharp; he needs to work on that as much as anything else.  The 3 rules of real estate apply here, and his real estate is the strike zone.  When he spots his pitches well he goes deeper into games.  He has the tools, he only needs to sharpen them.  

[Karbo]

IMO the jury is still out on Ryan. A young guy that is learning as he goes. I can agree at this point he's not an ace, and probably won't be until he can keep his pitch count down and get deeper into games ( if the staff lets him).

[Linus]

The only thing wrong with Joe Ryan is our expectations. He’s a solid middle to back of the rotation guy and that is just fine. Did you think we were getting Verlander for two months of Nelson Cruz?

[Original_JB]

My observations from when we first acquired Ryan haven't changed; he's a smart, battler of a pitcher without anything overpowering in his arsenal. Where I believe his effectiveness comes from is in his 'hidden ball' delivery. He uses a ton of video of himself (he's stated this) in preparation. Batters have very little time to decide to swing or not as it is, and Ryan's delivery probably shaves 10-15% of that time off, making it even harder. I think better teams make him work 'harder' and he starts to lose his form. So, I do think he has room to improve with experience, but he needs to keep his form locked in or his advantage disappears.

[rv78]

Ryan's ability or lack thereof to get tougher teams out is all the more reason to go get a guy like Rodon. Pushing Ryan and all of the other starters down one notch on the totem pole in the rotation will make the Twins so much better that it is almost unimaginable. Besides the health aspect of Mahle, Maeda and Ober being what it is you couldn't ask for any better insurance adding a Rodon. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Joe being in the Twins rotation for many years to come but taking some pressure off a young guy like himself will only help him long-term.

[Riverbrian]

He has been good. Happy to have him on the team. 

[Stew]

Remember this was his first full year in the majors. He should get even better with time. This is why many say we need a true ace . The problem with the rotation is not that they aren't good. It's we don't have that one guy to rely on in game one of the playoffs.

[jmlease1]

I think we should calm down before we start presuming that Joe Ryan can't pitch against "good" teams. cherry-picking out 4-5 starts in his rookie season doesn't really tell you much, and he certainly pitched just fine against Cleveland, which was a quality team last year. 4 of his worst starts against those "top" teams were road outings, but I don't think that's enough evidence that Joe Ryan can't pitch on the road.

If he can limit the free passes and keep the ball in the park he's going to be a quality pitcher and key part of the rotation again. I'm still a big fan and this was an elite trade.

[Trov]

I would like to point out that the June starts were after a stint with COVID, so one should expect some issues being he was getting back into game shape.  Also, he had good starts against Boston his first start against them, Texas, Giants, and Brewers, who all scored more runs on the season that Padres.  It is not like he only shut down poor scoring line ups.  A lot of pitchers had bad starts against some of those teams.  All pitchers have bad starts.  To cherry pick his blow up starts against some of the best teams in baseball, but to not point out that he still had good starts against other teams that had scored more runs than some, but say it was just shutting down bad offenses is not telling a true story.