Trade Polanco to Mariners?

[Steve71]

MLB Trade Rumors just posted a lengthy article indicating the Mariners want a left handed hitting 2nd baseman and that the FA market is pretty naked.

I like Polanco, and perhaps we would be selling low after a down year, but the guy should fetch a very healthy return on a reasonable contract.  Hopefully that return would be excellent, and it would also open a spot for Julien and, after recovery, someone like Lewis is we sign a FA SS like Correa.

Thoughts?  Any juicy targets in the Mariners system we could expect in return? BTV has him set at 19.9, which is probably low for the former All Star who has the bonus of being a switch hitter....

[jorgenswest]

I would want catcher Harry Ford and shortstop Cole Young.

[DJL44]

If they trade Polanco it would be to open 2B up for Arraez. I'm not sure what Seattle would send back in return. Andres Munoz?

[Cap'n Piranha]

If clearing Polanco's contract is the difference between signing/not signing Correa and/or Rodon, then yes, by all means move him (throw Kepler in while you're at it).  If not, keep him around for at least one more year, and reassess both Polanco's and the team's performance at both the trade deadline and next offseason.  The team can move on from Polanco after 2024 for only a $1M buyout, so even if he takes another step back this year, there are worse things than a 1 year, $10.5M 2B/DH.

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they trade Polanco it would be to open 2B up for Arraez. I'm not sure what Seattle would send back in return. Andres Munoz?

Arraez should never play 2B again.  His knees just cannot hold up at any position other than 1B, and his bat is way too valuable to sacrifice.  If Polanco is moved, it needs to be because that was the price to afford Correa and/or Rodon, with Lewis, Julien, Martin, and Lee battling to handle one or both of those slots.

[Mike Sixel]

Matt Brash and someone with a 40 grade or better......but I'd like to keep him. I might be ok with just Brash, might.

[tony&rodney]

Is Polanco finished as a baseball player. Last season, he was injured for part of the year, but previously he has been the best player on the team pretty much every year. I'm not a fan of trading Polanco unless there is specific evidence that he has hit the wall and I don't see that. I'm more in favor of trading Arraez, Miranda, or Lewis.

[talkintwins]

Spoke about this exact scenario in my new video, along with a few other trades for Twins to make. Polanco is a very intriguing offseason target for a handful of teams, including Seattle. The fit is there for Mariners... they have a number of assets the Twins are in need of. If the Twins are open to moving Polanco - and with a wealth of infield prospects close to the majors, the timing makes sense right now - then they should pull the trigger. A deal at the deadline might also be in play but will Polo's value really increase much more by then? Not likely by much. If the team has no plans to keep him past his current deal, I suspect we may find out during the next week or two. A lot of fans have been eyeing Kepler as the first to be moved... I see Polanco being on the hot seat first. 

[mnfireman]

58 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 I'm more in favor of trading Arraez.

FTFY

[FlyingFinn]

Between Polanco and Arraez, if one is traded, trade the one who is going to be injured a lot. Polanco moved from SS to 2B so he wouldn't get injured. Yet, he was injured and missed a lot of games last year. Arraez - did he move to 1B because of his knees or because Polanco had 2B covered? More because Polanco had 2B covered but even more so because we ran out of first basemen.

Just my guess, but I believe Polanco is going to keep getting injured because his body has hit his mileage limit. If so, his value will only go down over time. Sell high (though his peak was last summer) is this person's opinion but we had better get a lot in return. I could be totally wrong on Polanco.

Our new medical person could get his first test in predicting which injuries are chronic. 

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, talkintwins said:

Spoke about this exact scenario in my new video, along with a few other trades for Twins to make. Polanco is a very intriguing offseason target for a handful of teams, including Seattle. The fit is there for Mariners... they have a number of assets the Twins are in need of. If the Twins are open to moving Polanco - and with a wealth of infield prospects close to the majors, the timing makes sense right now - then they should pull the trigger. A deal at the deadline might also be in play but will Polo's value really increase much more by then? Not likely by much. If the team has no plans to keep him past his current deal, I suspect we may find out during the next week or two. A lot of fans have been eyeing Kepler as the first to be moved... I see Polanco being on the hot seat first. 

I wasn't able to access your site. I'd like to glean from it, could you repost it? 

 

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Arraez should never play 2B again.  His knees just cannot hold up at any position other than 1B, and his bat is way too valuable to sacrifice.  If Polanco is moved, it needs to be because that was the price to afford Correa and/or Rodon, with Lewis, Julien, Martin, and Lee battling to handle one or both of those slots.

If you have to trade Polanco in order to afford Correa. 

You could never afford Correa in the first place. 

[Doctor Gast]

On 11/30/2022 at 6:35 PM, FlyingFinn said:

Between Polanco and Arraez, if one is traded, trade the one who is going to be injured a lot. Polanco moved from SS to 2B so he wouldn't get injured. Yet, he was injured and missed a lot of games last year. Arraez - did he move to 1B because of his knees or because Polanco had 2B covered? More because Polanco had 2B covered but even more so because we ran out of first basemen.

Just my guess, but I believe Polanco is going to keep getting injured because his body has hit his mileage limit. If so, his value will only go down over time. Sell high (though his peak was last summer) is this person's opinion but we had better get a lot in return. I could be totally wrong on Polanco.

Our new medical person could get his first test in predicting which injuries are chronic. 

Since Polanco came off probation he has hardly missed any games. This Sept. was the 1st time he went on the IL in his MLB career. Polanco is by far the sturdiest player on the Twins but he's not a machine, he has his limits. For 2 1/2 yrs he played hurt with sore ankles (w/o going on the IL) until they fixed it, they removed him from his unnatural position SS. Polanco hurt his knee sliding this could easily be fixed with rest. But they never gave him any rest, they ran him to the ground until he couldn't take the field. This affected his production both offensively, defensively & trade value.

This is one reason why we shouldn't trade him, his trade value is down. Another we don't have anyone to capably cover 2B with this shift ban. We can hide Arraez lack of range  w/ the shift but now if Arraez plays 2B it'll be disasterous. The court is still not out on Julien defense except that it's not that great, depending on a prospect that hasn't even debut yet would be extremely irresponsible.

Arraez is the best choice for trade bait, reason #1 his deceiving defensive stats, Once he starts playing 2B, it'll become very obvious that the stats are wrong. #2 his trade value should the highest it'll ever be, Because of his All-star selection, his winning the batting crown, GG nomination, Silver Slugger award, etc. #3 he is expendable defensively, he can easily be replace at any position he plays w/ someone who can play it better. #4 His chronic knees, they keep him from playing a full season effectively. Yes with periodic rest that can resolve the problem but the problem will get worse as time goes by, it'll not go away.

I'm not against trading Polanco, but not now. Once his #s return and we get Guilorme in trade to help out at SS and  Lewis returns, Then we have either Guilorme, Lewis & Julien (platoon occasionally).  

 

 

[weitz41]

I'd rather keep Polanco around.

If we want to move a 2nd baseman to make room for Julien then I'd wait till Aug 1st. 3-4 month at AAA for Julien should help decide if we have depth to trade from.

Arraez would be my 1st choice to trade now. He's likely at his high point trade value wise. A 1b/.2b/3b with 8 homers in 550 ab's with bad knees. Even then it'd have to be a pretty decent return or I'd just hold onto all of them.

[talkintwins]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wasn't able to access your site. I'd like to glean from it, could you repost it? 

I'm not sure what the rules on self-promotion are, so I'll just say there's a link in my bio. The Polanco trade returns seem to be the most popular ones so far.

Arraez is the one player the Twins *should* consider trading, as his value may never be that much higher than it is right now. That said, it'll be difficult to replace his bat with confidence right now. And the lineup woes from 2022 still need to be addressed - we need Arraez more than we might need Polanco.

It's a pivotal offseason, indeed. We're expecting Kepler & Polanco to be the ones moved; the Twins seem more likely to want to extend Arraez rather than trade him. With 2B being a wasteland compared to most other positions, Polanco's trade value in a barren 2B market is going to be healthy - regardless of whether he's currently at his own peak value. Opportunity awaits the Twins...

[jorgenswest]

I would not count in Julien at 2B. He may be a 1B/DH. Arraez is probably the better option at 2B. Arraez is also the better trade option if the goal is to clear space.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not selling low on Polanco. He seems like a pretty decent bet to rebound.

But if you can trade him for near peak value, sure, I'd listen.

[RpR]

Arraez is , within his range, a better Second Baseman than Polanco, but Polanco is a better we need a long ball now player.

Unless they trade him for a better than average Second Baseman, they would be down grading the team.

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, talkintwins said:

I'm not sure what the rules on self-promotion are, so I'll just say there's a link in my bio. The Polanco trade returns seem to be the most popular ones so far.

Arraez is the one player the Twins *should* consider trading, as his value may never be that much higher than it is right now. That said, it'll be difficult to replace his bat with confidence right now. And the lineup woes from 2022 still need to be addressed - we need Arraez more than we might need Polanco.

It's a pivotal offseason, indeed. We're expecting Kepler & Polanco to be the ones moved; the Twins seem more likely to want to extend Arraez rather than trade him. With 2B being a wasteland compared to most other positions, Polanco's trade value in a barren 2B market is going to be healthy - regardless of whether he's currently at his own peak value. Opportunity awaits the Twins...

I watched your podcast & I recommend it! Love your Kepler/ Marquez trade spot. I've advocated this trade since Sept., makes total sense on both sides. You've brought that out very well.

You've revealed Endy Rodriguez to me and now I'm a vivid fan of his. Very quickly other teams are going to break down PIT doors to obtain this guy. It'd be one of my top priorities to obtain this budding star before this happens. I'd bend backward to find a way for PIT to agree with a trade. If PIT are not that interested in what we have then I'd go & find a 3 way trade. I'd have very long talk with Shelton.

My 1st 3 way option would be with SEA. They need a lefty bat/ 2B unlike you I chose Arraez over Polanco (as I've discussed on prior post) to SEA, Rodriguez to MN, and PIT has their pick from SEA. Of course it'll take a little more than Arraez to obtain Rodriguez but that'd be negociated. I know I said I'd do anything but trading Emmanuel Rodriguez, Martin and SWR is a hard pill to swallow. These are underrated, close to really break out on the MLB  & have lot helium to really soar. Endy has soared & still has a lot of potential but these 3 together will accumulate a ton of trade value in the short future. To limit damage, I'd leave off Bednar from the trade and try angle around them. That's just me.

Personally, the easy trades with excess players from SEA  & TEX would be fall back trades if my primary trades don't pan out. 

I'd love to have Correa, I've been a big supporter of what he brings to the table. I understand your pessimism about his injuries and I agree w/ you. But my greatest worry is waiting around for him when the odds are against him signing with us ( my odds are more optimistic than most). All our secondary moves (like Contreras & Narvaez) will be gone, especially with the winter meeting things will very quickly escalate. I am leaning more everyday to dump Correa & make our previous secondary moves primary so we don't lose out in the end. 

Another of my primary moves is  to trade for lefty bat Luis Guillorme (NYM) to take over SS until Lewis is ready. I really like his defense and he profiles a lot like  Arraez with his bat. SEA is looking for a lefty bat/ 2B. I'm worried that they might snatch him away from us.

 

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If you have to trade Polanco in order to afford Correa. 

You could never afford Correa in the first place. 

Not quite.  I can afford a Porsche; that doesn't mean I'll go buy one.

But if I refinance my house and save a couple hundred dollars a month on my mortgage, all of the sudden that Porsche becomes more doable.

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Not quite.  I can afford a Porsche; that doesn't mean I'll go buy one.

But if I refinance my house and save a couple hundred dollars a month on my mortgage, all of the sudden that Porsche becomes more doable.

It's more like selling your garage so you can buy the Porsche. The elements are going to be rough on that fancy thing you just bought. ?

[darin617]

On 11/30/2022 at 5:15 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

Arraez should never play 2B again.  His knees just cannot hold up at any position other than 1B, and his bat is way too valuable to sacrifice.  If Polanco is moved, it needs to be because that was the price to afford Correa and/or Rodon, with Lewis, Julien, Martin, and Lee battling to handle one or both of those slots.

Arraez should never play first again. Then need a bigger guy to play first base. Arraez brings a great bat but where ever they play him in the field it hurts the defense.

Give a player like the size of Hrbek minus a few of the pounds and I will be happy.

[talkintwins]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I watched your podcast & I recommend it! Love your Kepler/ Marquez trade spot. I've advocated this trade since Sept., makes total sense on both sides. You've brought that out very well. You've revealed Endy Rodriguez to me and now I'm a vivid fan of his. My 1st 3 way option would be with SEA. They need a lefty bat/ 2B unlike you I chose Arraez over Polanco.

Thanks man, much appreciated! Glad you enjoyed the video.

Polanco really seems like the low-hanging fruit this winter if anyone is moved, but only if there's a set plan for 2B. As one of the new faces of the team, an extension for the inexpensive Arraez seems more likely than a trade. According to Do-Hyoung Park, he's been working on his conditioning with Nelly Cruz, has already lost 11 pounds, and his knees are doing well. Reason for optimism!

Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/former-twins-give-back-to-luis-arraez-jose-miranda

[ashbury]

Look at this photo where the team rolled out the new uniforms.  Look at this list of players who will not be traded this off-season.

Never say never but I will be absolutely shocked if Polanco goes.

 

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, talkintwins said:

Thanks man, much appreciated! Glad you enjoyed the video.

Polanco really seems like the low-hanging fruit this winter if anyone is moved, but only if there's a set plan for 2B. As one of the new faces of the team, an extension for the inexpensive Arraez seems more likely than a trade. According to Do-Hyoung Park, he's been working on his conditioning with Nelly Cruz, has already lost 11 pounds, and his knees are doing well. Reason for optimism!

Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/former-twins-give-back-to-luis-arraez-jose-miranda

Thank you, I'm well aware of Nelly Cruz's contributions to this club, that's why I'd like for him to return. It'd be so great if he could get his 500th HR here in MN, he fits so well here & well respected. We could use his motivational leadership, mentorship, bat and could double as a conditioning, hitting & 3B coach. And he knows he'll be well taken care of here.

"but only if there's a set plan for 2B" - not only there should be a set plan it has to be a good one. FO has many set plans but many times they're not good and right now there isn't an avenue for a good one. I agree with you that the odds of trading Arraez is very slim and I'm not against trading Polanco but now isn't the time. I'm not in favor of a trade with SEA., yes it'll fills a big need for SEA but it doesn't do much in filling our real needs and it'll cause a big hole in our system until Lewis is ready either way.

We can disagree on wether Polanco is a low hanging fruit or not, w/o being disagreeable. Still I'll listen with an open mind to what you have to say.

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Look at this photo where the team rolled out the new uniforms.  Look at this list of players who will not be traded this off-season.

Never say never but I will be absolutely shocked if Polanco goes.

 

I would be shocked as well. I believe it was Dean Wormer who said to Flounder. "No Power and No Speed is no way to go through life".

Polanco is currently the 2nd best power source on the current roster. That fact illustrates two things. We can't afford to lose any more power and we need to bring in power. 

Here are the 2022 HR totals from the current roster. 

(Disclaimer: I understand Injuries played a big role in these numbers)

Buxton - 28

Polanco - 16

Miranda - 15

Farmer - 14

Kepler - 9

Gordon - 9

Garlick - 9

Arraez - 8

Jeffers - 7

Larnach - 5

Kirilloff - 3

Celestino - 2

Are Larnach and Kirilloff going to hit enough bombs to make it OK to trade away Polanco?

Garlick (Short Side Platoon Specialist) - 162 Plate Appearances - 9 HR's

Larnach and Kirilloff 336 PA 8 HR's (COMBINED). 

I agree with you. I'd be shocked by a Polanco trade. A Polanco trade would signify a massive retool via FA or the start of a rebuild. If you are young on the mound and at the plate. You are rebuilding.  

 

[Squirrel]

47 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Larnach and Kirilloff 336 PA 8 HR's (COMBINED). 

While the jury is still out on these two, absolutely, they were rookies last year, and I think how you've laid out their comparison is a little unfair. Kirilloff played for what, a month of the season? Larnach just over half? I think Larnach was coming around and starting to take off when he was beset by a medical issue. Kirilloff I think has it ... but ... not sure how his injury and the fix will play out. Neither is there, yet, as I said, the jury is still out. But, over all, I agree ... losing Polanco, one of our power producers ... we can't afford to lose any power and need more. Trading him is not the answer. Trading away power for a hopeful in Lewis and/or Julien? No. We've put too many eggs in the prospect basket. Keep Polanco here. If Lewis and/or Julien and/or Lee start pushing and knocking, well, that would be a good thing. We don't need to make room for them yet, or ever (trade). Keep Polanco and wait and see about the prospects ... in AAA.

[Riverbrian]

50 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

While the jury is still out on these two, absolutely, they were rookies last year, and I think how you've laid out their comparison is a little unfair. Kirilloff played for what, a month of the season? Larnach just over half? I think Larnach was coming around and starting to take off when he was beset by a medical issue. Kirilloff I think has it ... but ... not sure how his injury and the fix will play out. Neither is there, yet, as I said, the jury is still out. But, over all, I agree ... losing Polanco, one of our power producers ... we can't afford to lose any power and need more. Trading him is not the answer. Trading away power for a hopeful in Lewis and/or Julien? No. We've put too many eggs in the prospect basket. Keep Polanco here. If Lewis and/or Julien and/or Lee start pushing and knocking, well, that would be a good thing. We don't need to make room for them yet, or ever (trade). Keep Polanco and wait and see about the prospects ... in AAA.

I think we are in agreement. I'm not trying to be unfair to either Alex or Trevor. I did post a disclaimer that I understood the role that injuries played in the numbers I posted and I made sure to post the number of plate appearances for the comparison I chose. 

What I'm trying to do is point out the risk in thinking we can trade our current 2nd best power source on a team and what you are saying is exactly what I'm thinking.

The team as it currently stands... needs more power sources added to it. The team as it currently stands is perhaps last in team speed. 

If you trade Polanco it just accelerates the timeline needed for Kirilloff and Larnach to make up the power difference and that is what would be unfair to them. If Kirilloff and Larnach show they can do it... Great!!! but what if they don't. As you state... Too many eggs in the prospect or never done it before basket. 

The Twins can't afford to trade Polanco unless they are going to completely retool. The Twins need Polanco to hit 20 plus dingers this year. 

I post those numbers and I post that specific comparison so others can see what type of progression from 2022 to 2023 is needed and how deeper that needed progression from Kirilloff and Larnach would need to be if Polanco is traded. 

[EGFTShaw]

On 12/1/2022 at 8:49 AM, talkintwins said:

I'm not sure what the rules on self-promotion are, so I'll just say there's a link in my bio. The Polanco trade returns seem to be the most popular ones so far.

If you're from MN, self-promotion is not only illegal, but it may be genetically impossible to do... ??

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I would be shocked as well. I believe it was Dean Wormer who said to Flounder. "No Power and No Speed is no way to go through life".

Polanco is currently the 2nd best power source on the current roster. That fact illustrates two things. We can't afford to lose any more power and we need to bring in power. 

Here are the 2022 HR totals from the current roster. 

(Disclaimer: I understand Injuries played a big role in these numbers)

Buxton - 28

Polanco - 16

Miranda - 15

Farmer - 14

Kepler - 9

Gordon - 9

Garlick - 9

Arraez - 8

Jeffers - 7

Larnach - 5

Kirilloff - 3

Celestino - 2

Are Larnach and Kirilloff going to hit enough bombs to make it OK to trade away Polanco?

Garlick (Short Side Platoon Specialist) - 162 Plate Appearances - 9 HR's

Larnach and Kirilloff 336 PA 8 HR's (COMBINED). 

I agree with you. I'd be shocked by a Polanco trade. A Polanco trade would signify a massive retool via FA or the start of a rebuild. If you are young on the mound and at the plate. You are rebuilding.  

 

Good analysis but my key to success in life is not thinking too hard.  In this case I let the Twins' marketing department, who surely chatted beforehand with baseball operations and found out which players to be a little careful about publicizing, do the thinking for me, freeing up precious brainwaves for today's Wordle and so forth.