Is This the Year Kirilloff Sticks for Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

In 2023 the Minnesota Twins will be largely reliant on a handful of former top prospects that have graduated to positions of weight on the major league roster. Maybe no one in that group will be more important than the expected first basemen, Alex Kirilloff. Is this the year it finally comes together?

 

Image courtesy of © Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past few seasons we have heard plenty about Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, and Alex Kirilloff. High-round picks and gaudy draft grades, each of them has developed plenty of fanfare while producing on the farm. Kirilloff was the first of the bunch to reach the big leagues, making his debut in 2020 during the postseason when Josh Donaldson left a void in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. In the two full seasons since, Kirilloff has done, little playing just 104 games with a career .694 OPS. Is this the season that finally sees it come together?

Last year Kirilloff began the season as Minnesota’s Opening Day left fielder. Miguel Sano was still on the roster and had yet to go through his handful of completely ineffective games. Kirilloff was going to figure prominently into the plans at first base, but there was no reason to limit his athleticism until absolutely necessary.

We know now that Sano didn’t last long for the Twins in 2022, and Kirilloff spent almost half of his time in the big leagues last year playing first base. Like Sano however, Kirilloff saw his production tail off in dealing with a wrist injury and it was ultimately a combination of Miranda and Luis Arraez that needed to man an abandoned position. With the hope of health in the year ahead, Minnesota is counting on Kirilloff to be who he showed he was on the farm.

After a nagging wrist injury sapped Kirilloff’s power in 2021 and caused him to play just 59 games for Minnesota, he underwent offseason surgery to address the problem. The slow start in 2022 eventually led to a demotion to Triple-A St. Paul in hopes of figuring out a way to play through the injury effectively. The former first round pick noted that he had to shut down his offseason program due to discomfort, and he truly never worked his way back to 100% coming into the year. That was a gut-punch knowing what Minnesota needed from him, and led to an entirely unsurprising result when he managed just 45 games in 2022.

This offseason Kirilloff will again be coming back from surgery, but this time he’s had a bone in his wrist shaved down in hopes of alleviating pain and providing a more realistic path forward. In over 316 minor league games the former top prospect posted an .895 OPS. While that doesn’t directly correlate to Major League success, the hope has always been that the true production would be somewhat similar.

Kirilloff was shut down earlier in 2022 and wound up having surgery in August. With more of a runway to work himself back into baseball activities, the hope would be that Minnesota returns 100% of the player that they counted on when calling him up for the 2020 postseason. Kirilloff too has to be hoping for an ability to regain the form that saw him as the darling of so many prospect lists.

A year ago the Minnesota Twins experienced some of the most substantial stays on the injured list across all of baseball. With a new head athletic trainer in the fold, there has to have been some level of communication with expected producers even in the early stages of Nick Paparesta’s time with the club. Connecting with Kirilloff and making sure the plan for the offseason is going smoothly is a must. The Twins can’t get to Spring Training and have uncertainty, and it would be catastrophic to hear initial reports of a shutdown or lack of healing come the regular season for the second year in a row.

Now 25-years-old, it’s not as though Kirilloff’s injury history is a death sentence, but it’s becoming increasingly necessary to see a substantial level of performance at the highest level. The Twins are counting on him in the season ahead, and you can bet he’s itching to prove he belongs as well.

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[mikelink45]

It is the holiday season - all is good.  The Twins injury list will be purged and we will be surprised by the strength of the team.  I see the current group looking like the Hrbek led young bucks that Kelly led to the series.  I am ready to believe until New Years!

[Blyleven2011]

I sure hope he comes back healthy and have a career ,,,

Maybe comeback player of the year , he's young and has a desire to play the game of baseball ...

he has a nice swing , let's hoe he can have a good career ...

[weitz41]

I hope this is his year. With the new jerseys and Sano let go. I'm looking for a current player who's jersey I'll need to buy....What do yeah say Alex? It's you, Larnach or Lewis. Whichever plays the most games wins. ?

[Karbo]

AK has a lot to prove. To unseat a gold glove finalist at 1B is going to take much better health and some progress at the plate.

[theBOMisthebomb]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

It is the holiday season - all is good.  The Twins injury list will be purged and we will be surprised by the strength of the team.  I see the current group looking like the Hrbek led young bucks that Kelly led to the series.  I am ready to believe until New Years!

At this point in the off-season, everyone is tied for first place. 

[tony&rodney]

The way that Kirilloff hit for St. Paul is a possible outcome for Alex with the Twins in 2023. The photo captures two key players for the Twins chances in 2023, AK and Kepler. While it doesn't seem like Kirilloff is inked into the lineup, his healthy bat is one of the keys for the coming season. 

[baul0010]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

AK has a lot to prove. To unseat a gold glove finalist at 1B is going to take much better health and some progress at the plate.

If AK can stay healthy, which is a big IF, I think his defense at first could be better than Arraez.  With Luis slowing down a bit in the second half of seasons, it wouldn't be bad having those two split duties at 1st and DH.  Maybe it could keep both sorta healthy.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

I hope this is his year. With the new jerseys and Sano let go. I'm looking for a current player who's jersey I'll need to buy....What do yeah say Alex? It's you, Larnach or Lewis. Whichever plays the most games wins. ?

Gauntlet has been thrown!!!

???

???

[dxpavelka]

I'd be ecstatic if  this was  the year he played as many games as Buxton does.  Larnach too.  Then maybe we could get a read on what they might actually be able to contribute.  If not, we may need to start looking at other options.  And I'd have to continue to harp on the short-sightedness of moving of from Rosario when we did.  Especially if we double down and do  the same thing with Kepler this year just to get more right handed.

[weitz41]

21 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I'd be ecstatic if  this was  the year he played as many games as Buxton does.  Larnach too.  Then maybe we could get a read on what they might actually be able to contribute.  If not, we may need to start looking at other options.  And I'd have to continue to harp on the short-sightedness of moving of from Rosario when we did.  Especially if we double down and do  the same thing with Kepler this year just to get more right handed.

Good points.

[Fatbat]

It would be a shame if his wrist doesn’t heal properly.  He is such a talented player!!! I'm thinking he will be the comeback player of the year!

[gman]

New Years wish that the following players all get into plus 130 healthy games in 2023:

Kirilloff, Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, Larnach, Miranda, Lewis, Julian, & Jeffers. It would be nice to know what we really have. If they get anywhere close to their potential the division title and more should be an easy reach.

[CRF]

I'd just like to see him healthy and put the wrist issues in the rear view mirror once and for all. He has talent, it would be great to see it on display with the big league club. 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I'd be ecstatic if  this was  the year he played as many games as Buxton does.  Larnach too.  Then maybe we could get a read on what they might actually be able to contribute.  If not, we may need to start looking at other options.  And I'd have to continue to harp on the short-sightedness of moving of from Rosario when we did.  Especially if we double down and do  the same thing with Kepler this year just to get more right handed.

Rosario had a negative 1.1 WAR last year.  How is it a problem they moved on from a guy who was one of the worst corner OFers in all of MLB?

[se7799]

4 hours ago, gman said:

New Years wish that the following players all get into plus 130 healthy games in 2023:

Kirilloff, Buxton, Polanco, Arraez, Larnach, Miranda, Lewis, Julian, & Jeffers. It would be nice to know what we really have. If they get anywhere close to their potential the division title and more should be an easy reach.

Love the idea. However there is noway Lewis plays 130 games.  Coming off a second ACL.  

[DocBauer]

Is this his year? As an amateur GM/fan on the outside looking in, I'm not sure I'm using ink to write his name in anywhere. But boy do I sure hope so!

Sweet swing, good contact, good power, solid OB, decent OF and really good looking 1B, he could really raise the lineup potential.

In the brief weeks he's been healthy for the Twins, he's looked really good. I'm hoping with fingers crossed he's finally good to go come ST...or soon after...and he can really get his career started.

[Rosterman]

I'm hoping he becomes our next Jason Kubel, and not our next Jim Eisenreich. At least in a Twins uniform.

 

Although I would like him to comeback in the same way Eisenreich did...for other teams!

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Rosario had a negative 1.1 WAR last year.  How is it a problem they moved on from a guy who was one of the worst corner OFers in all of MLB?

Dude.  Nick Gordon was our best LF.  'nuff said.  That's how you miss the post season in the two years since Rosario left and Rosario wins a World Series.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Dude.  Nick Gordon was our best LF.  'nuff said.  That's how you miss the post season in the two years since Rosario left and Rosario wins a World Series.

There is no arguing they did not get enough production out of the corner OFers.  That is a very different argument than suggesting letting Rosario go was a mistake.  He was horrible last year.  He clearly would have made the team worse.  The players they put out there were all better but got injured yet somehow your conclusion is the FO made a mistake.  That conclusion sounds like you developed an opinion when they let him go and then just ignored what actually happened.  

[nclahammer]

I hope next season Kirilloff is able to shake his Buxton-like label of "when healthly" and put together a complete season with 500+ at bats.   The kid can flat out hit "when healthy."

[jmlease1]

I really hope it works out for Kirilloff. He's a terrific hitter with a great eye and a sweet swing. The wrist injury has been really unfortunate, and they had to take a pretty extreme measure this time to try and get him to a point where he can swing without pain. (any time you have to break a bone intentionally as part of a process to shorten it...that's a really big deal) The skills are there, and he should be an adequate corner OF or a superior 1B defensively, and his production if healthy would be more than solid at DH as well.

You just can't know on health. If they've found the permanent fix for him, he could be a huge part of this team. If it didn't work, then he's going to have another frustrating and disappointing season (and he'll be as frustrated and disappointed as anyone).

I believe in the talent. You can choose to assume he'll be injured and have no power and not be a viable player, or you can choose to hope for health. I suspect the Twins will presume health, but have a backup plan in case he can't go.

[Trov]

This is a make or break year for Alex I think.  I wish they would have done the wrist surgery they did this last year, the year prior.  I mean the bone did not grow in that year, I am assuming, so if you knew it could be an issue why not fix it all in one?  I guess I am no doctor but unless he can have a healthy strong wrist, he will never be what we want. 

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

There is no arguing they did not get enough production out of the corner OFers.  That is a very different argument than suggesting letting Rosario go was a mistake.  He was horrible last year.  He clearly would have made the team worse.  The players they put out there were all better but got injured yet somehow your conclusion is the FO made a mistake.  That conclusion sounds like you developed an opinion when they let him go and then just ignored what actually happened.  

What actually happened was he won a World Series the first year after we let him go.  Atlanta even traded for him.  We let him go to save $8 Million. I'm old enough to remember when fans would have ripped ownership a new one for moving on from a guy to save $8 Million.  Didn't realized I was dealing with a Pohlad Pocket Protector. 

Given the injury issues with our OFs the last two years we would have had plenty of need / use for him.  He likely would have out-performed much of  the putrid sludge we've run out there.  You ASSUME that what he did in 270 plate appearances last year is the same as he would have done here had that plate appearance number been 470.  His production could have been totally different.  You know what the say about ASSUMing.  I would ASSUME that had he played here the last two years he would have hit better  than the folks we actually rolled out there.  You can ASSUME whatever you want and I can ASSUME whatever I want and neither of will ever be proven right or wrong. 

What I CAN PROVE, however, is that in the two years he's been gone is that this ball club has hugely under performed.  Been listening to folks all season telling me about the Timberwolves lacking heart this season.  I tell folks the same thing about the Twins since Eddie's been gone and they act like that 's not a thing.  You can't measure it and you can't see it.  But you can sure see when it's not there.  Hasn't been there since Rosario left.  Won't get better if Correa leaves.  But, hey, if you're OK with the last two years, who am I to disagree?

 

[RpR]

If he survives Spring Training he is half-way home already.

 

[TopGunn#22]

I sure hope this is the year Kirilloff stays healthy and blossoms into the player we all have hoped he could be.  He has a swing that reminds me a little of Will Clark.  THAT'S the player I'd like to see him become.   

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, TwinsRealist said:

You must be braindead if you think Rosario is a positive player. And would contribute to winning baseball. 

Hasn't been a guy wearing a Twins uniform in two years that has contributed to winning baseball.  New uniforms won't change that.