Is Xander Bogaerts Enough to Replace Carlos Correa?

[Ted Schwerzler]

From the moment he signed with the Minnesota Twins, Carlos Correa was going to opt-out of his contract. Now with that having officially happened, the front office must decide whether they can bring him back, or if there’s an alternative that’s more plausible. Enter Xander Bogaerts.

 

Image courtesy of Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa accomplished his goal of securing the most lucrative average annual value among infielders in major-league history. His $35.1 million last season topped Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon’s guarantee with the Angels. Although the deal was for technically three years, the opt-outs assured us that Correa was always going to hit the market again in hopes of securing a long-term payday.

Minnesota certainly could opt to bring Correa back, and they should put a strong foot forward to do so. If he can be had for less than 10 years or under $300 million, it may be a possibility. If he can’t, and that does seem likely, then pivoting to another option makes sense.

Despite strong shortstop prospects in the form of Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin, it would be preferable to see Minnesota avoid a stopgap shortstop option. A Jose Iglesias type could certainly hold down the position, but that would do little to reinvigorate an offense that needs to replace production.

Dansby Swanson is coming off arguably the best year of his career, and Trea Turner is going to land somewhere in the same realm as Correa. That begs the question of whether Xander Bogaerts can be a middle ground, and if he represents enough of a replacement for Minnesota.

At 30, Bogaerts is a bit older than Correa. His 117 career OPS+ doesn’t reflect just how good he’s been of late. He owns a 133 OPS+ since 2018 and has three All-Star game appearances along with three Silver Slugger awards. Bogaerts has been a pillar of health as well. He’s never played less than 136 games in a full season and is as reliable as it gets to be on the field.

Correa is the superior defender, and that’s noteworthy for a Twins team lacking defense. Rocco Baldelli’s infield was not good a season ago, and removing arguably the best person with the glove doesn’t help change things. The Twins almost certainly won’t have a shortstop that can throw like Correa ever again, but replacing his offensive production could be equally key.

Although Bogaerts has hit 30 homers in a season once during his career, you can more realistically bank on him to be in the 15-25 range. He’ll pile up doubles and brings a very good approach to the plate. Boston not being able to get a long-term deal done with him allows the open market to share their feelings, and the Twins should be having conversations with him as well.

Like Correa, Bogaerts is represented by Boras Corp. The Twins front office should be seeing where they can place themselves in discussions regarding both players by feeling out the individual markets and expectations. If they determine an inability to play at the higher level, finding out how a match can be created with the Aruba native makes too much sense.

I’d imagine the Twins would prefer continuity in the form of Correa. He’s been here, is a known asset, and is already a fan favorite. That said, spending less to get a superstar with similar talent has value too, and the package Bogaerts brings is hardly something to scoff at.

What do you think? Is Bogaerts enough of an option to replace Correa on both sides of the ball?

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[DJL44]

Lots of analysis on the shortstop supply, not much on the demand. I count the Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies and Cubs as teams actively looking for a SS and I expect each of them to pursue one of the big four (Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson). The Braves, Yankees, Angels and Giants will also have interest at the right price. That's 8 teams with deeper pockets than the Twins they will have to outbid.

[EGFTShaw]

I am on record for saying C4 above all other FA SSs.

I am also on record for saying TT after C4 if only for the chance to somehow market his slides. ?

After that, I think I would like to look at the options Doc Gast came up via trades.  I am not sure that XB or DS move the needle enough to warrant the deal.  

 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The Twins will be in on Correa, but I don't think they will ultimately get him.  I think the Twins familiarity with Correa is 90% of the reason they are willing to make a run at him.

I can't see them making a real run at any of the other big name SS unless they can get them on a shorter term.  The Twins shy away from long term contracts for guys they don't know.  The Donaldson experiment was a bust, not because of his numbers, but because of him being a [insert expletive description here].

Anybody else they bring in will be for 2-3 years max. 

[chpettit19]

It's all about price to me. How long, and how expensive, is Xander's contract going to be. I'm guessing he's looking for 6+ years and I'm not interested in that for him. I think his decline is coming soon. If you can get him for 3 or 4 years I'd be all over that, but more than that would be a hard no for me.

[Doctor Gast]

If we don't land Correa, I'm not in favor of any FA SS, And the others of the top 4 are not looking to come to MN, they'll go somewhere else before considering MN.

[eric grundmeier]

The Twins need a leader that can bat in the front of the order and play quality defense up the middle.  CC checks all of the boxes for me.  7 years/$220 million seems about right, but I think he'll get more than that.

 

[Rosterman]

Lots of tems should've outbid the Twins on Correa. But they didn't.

Yes, I would go for Bogaerts. So we can all mangle the name when typing.

I would do a contract that has an opt out after Year Two and/or Three.

[ashbury]

22 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Yes, I would go for Bogaerts. So we can all mangle the name when typing.

Not a pressing need.  We already have Alec Kirralaff.

[TopGunn#22]

While I would love to have CC back I just think he's going to want too much money and for too long a length of contract.  I've always liked Bogaerts as our #2 option.  Swanson is staying with the Braves.  Turner is the BEST offensive player of all the SS's but his glove is suspect and he will also be cost prohibitive.  Bogaerts, in my opinion is the 2nd best hitter and is more consistent as a hitter than Correa.  With Lewis and Lee the Twins could sign Bogaerts for 5-6 years and shift him to other positions at some point when Lewis or Lee emerges as the SS.  If Polanco isn't dealt this off-season, he will surely be dealt this midseason or next off-season.  Julien appears to be the 2B of the future, but Bogaerts could play 2B & 3B when his SS days are over and DH the rest.