Two Non-Tender Bats for the Minnesota Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

We’re coming to a point in the offseason where teams must decide which of their arbitration-eligible candidates will be tendered new contracts. More free agents will be added as non-tenders are decided upon. With Minnesota needing some offensive firepower, there are two outfield candidates that could have some appeal.

Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

At this point, we don’t know whether these players will be tendered contracts, but it stands to reason that both Hunter Renfroe and Cody Bellinger could find themselves on the open market. The former played 2022 with the Milwaukee Brewers and would be searching for his fifth team in five years should he be sent out. The latter is a former Rookie of the Year and MVP award winner that has fallen from grace for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Looking at the 2020 pandemic season as an outlier, Renfroe has been a solid major-league slugger. He’s consistently posted an OPS+ well above league average, and you can bank on him hitting nearly 30 home runs during any given season. He doesn’t have a great approach at the plate, and with how few walks he takes, it’s no wonder why he routinely struggles to reach even a .300 OBP.

Seeing his projected arbitration number above $11 million, it’s understandable why the Brewers may look to trade or simply unload him. That’s a hefty price to pay for a borderline outfielder with a pretty one-dimensional set of skills.

In Bellinger’s case, you have a player that’s projected to get something like $18 million through the arbitration process. Since winning an MVP in 2019, Bellinger seems to have lost all ability to produce. He has dealt with injuries along the way, but this is a 27-year-old with a .648 OPS across the past three seasons.

The Dodgers would love to have the 112 OPS+ Bellinger posted in 2020 back, but he’s fallen off an absolute cliff since. In 2021 he was virtually unplayable and looking at a .210/.265/.389 slash line last year as a positive development tells you everything you need to know.

There’s no denying that Bellinger has the ability, but unlocking it again and figuring out how to get him right is tough when also paying him nearly $20 million. He was once a consistent power-hitting threat with amazing plate discipline and solid skills in both the outfield and at first base. He still has never lost the defensive ability, but both the production and approach offensively have become all but non-existent.

He does seem like the type of player a team would love to work on as a reclamation project. He’s still young and, at the right price, could have plenty of appeal for an organization in the middle ground. Minnesota would provide less scrutiny than Los Angeles, and being able to unlock his potential could give the Twins quite the come-up.

Both players should have no problem finding suitors on the open market, but maybe Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would have an interest in dealing for one before they get there.

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[Minderbinder]

Fools and their money are soon parted.  Great coaching needed in both cases, and the Twins aren't long on great coaching.

[mikelink45]

Lets build from within - rejects from other teams do not excite me.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Would you rather have Kepler at $10M or Renfroe at $11M?

I am assuming Renfroe can't stay with a team because he is either a horrid defender or a horrid clubhouse presence.  $11m is not a huge price tag for that kind of offensive output.

[chpettit19]

Bellinger is an interesting player this offseason. If he were on any team outside of the few big spenders he'd be an unquestioned non-tender, but he plays for the Dodgers so there's a chance they risk the 20 mil on 1 more shot at getting MVP Bellinger back. I'd think that their decision on Bellinger is based on how they feel about their chances to sign Judge. If they think they have a legit shot at bringing Judge to the west coast I'd think they'd be more likely to non-tender Bellinger and shift that money to Judge. If they don't think they can get him it probably makes it more likely they just hold onto Bellinger and hope he figures it out.

As for the Twins bringing him in if he's non-tendered...much like the Gallo article yesterday, if they're moving Kepler Bellinger wouldn't be a bad guy to bring in on a 1 year deal to see if he can catch lightning in a bottle offensively while not losing the defense in RF. I wouldn't be tripping over myself to sign Bellinger Saturday if he's non-tendered Friday, but he's someone I'd keep my eye on later in the offseason as I make other moves such as a potential Kepler trade.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

The picture at the top of this article is not of either of the players discussed in the article.

[Rosterman]

If you have money to spare and kinda in the middle ground with playoff aspirations, might be a good gamble as players that could improve and be flipped for prospects (at the expense of some monies).

The Twins Big Decision how to handle the glut of potential players like Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Celestino with Martin, Lewis, Lee and a few others in the wings. 

[Doctor Gast]

There's a reason why they are let go, teams don't think they're worth the $ and figure their $  is better spent elsewhere. There's no doubt in my mind that we can better spend our $ on somethingelse. 

[Whitey333]

I don't think it's bargain basement enough for the Twins.  They usually look to the dollar store for their fill in pitching and positions.  Simply too expensive for those players.  Yes let's use that money to help develop a major league pitching staff.

[Otaknam]

Bellinger isn’t a good fit with the Twins. They already have too many young  left handed players needing at bats.