3 Big Boppers in Free Agency Who Would Fit the Twins' M.O.

[Nick Nelson]

At Twins Daily, we've spent the past several weeks highlighting all of the top options at Minnesota's clearest positions of need. But we've also emphasized that it's important to expect the unexpected with this front office.

If they characteristically pivot and aim for the best value they can find later in the offseason, these three impact bats figure as very likely targets.

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Paul Rutherford, Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

 

I'm not saying they can't (or shouldn't) break their trend this year, but the current Twins leadership has developed a pretty consistent pattern when it comes to approaching the offseason. With rare exception, they have stood pat and preserved available resources, opting to spend their dollars on the values that remain after the early aggressive splurging subsides.

This path led the Twins to sign Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison in 2018. It led them to Marwin Gonzalez in 2019, Josh Donaldson in 2020, and Carlos Correa in 2022. 

Where might it lead them in 2023?

To answer this question, I reviewed our latest chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Hunting for a Big Bat," seeking players who not only would be good fits for the Twins, but who – for various reasons – might see their markets drift and dwindle into the later stages of the offseason.

These three names stood out.

Mitch Haniger, OF
Age: 31 (12/23/90)
Former Team: Mariners
Career fWAR: 11.8

Why He's a Fit for the Twins:

Minnesota could obviously use a right-handed corner outfield bat – ideally one capable of stepping in as an everyday regular, if not opening the season as one. Haniger fits that bill perfectly. 

As a .261/.335/.476 career hitter, he's overqualified for the Kyle Garlick role, but if Max Kepler were traded, Haniger could step in as the new right fielder, thus allowing Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Nick Gordon to vie for at-bats in left (while reducing the dependence on any of them individually).

Why He Still Might Be Available in January:

Haniger enters free agency at a tough time, coming off an injury-ravaged season that saw him produce just 0.9 fWAR in 57 games. He'll likely want to get paid based on his bona fides: a 39-HR, 100-RBI season in 2021, and an All-Star campaign in 2018 where he was worth 4.8 fWAR. 

The problem is he hasn't played 100 games in a season outside of those two, and he turns 32 in December. On top of that, the market in general for low-OBP, high-power corner outfield types is usually very tepid. Haniger figures to be disappointed with the caliber of his early offers, which could lead him into the Twins' wheelhouse as they measure up the post-holiday pool.

J.D. Martinez, DH
Age: 35 (DOB: 8/21/87)
Former Team: Red Sox
Career fWAR: 26.5

Why He's a Fit for the Twins:

When you set aside all of the positional considerations, what the Twins really need this offseason is a premium bat to replace Correa in the heart of their lineup. Martinez can be that. He's been one of the league's premier sluggers for a decade, named to the past four consecutive All-Star teams. 

With two 40-homer seasons and four 100-RBI campaigns under his belt, Martinez would bring a prestigious pedigree and some serious veteran firepower to a lineup that is lacking for it. 

Why He Still Might Be Available in January:

With universal DH in place, dynamics have changed since the Twins were able to leverage Nelson Cruz's limited market into a team-friendly deal (twice). But regardless, it remains tough to sell the services of an aging, plodding power hitter who is not even an occasional option to play in the field. Martinez also has a couple of specific things working against him: his home-run power has dropped off over the past few years (though it's translated to a big jump in doubles), and he's coming off his worst overall season since 2013. 

Martinez is represented by Scott Boras, which is – odd as it feels to say – a big point in the Twins' favor. There's lots of history here. Correa and Gonzalez are both examples of Boras clients who signed with Minnesota late in the offseason previously.

Brandon Drury, UTIL
Age: 30 (DOB: 8/21/92)
Former Team: Padres
Career fWAR: 3.6

Why He's a Fit for the Twins:

Speaking of Marwin, Drury's appeal to the Twins is very similar. He's a versatile defender who can plug in all around the field and actually make some noise at the plate. His 131 starts for the Reds and Padres last year came at six different positions, including 67 at third base. 

The righty-swinging Drury posted an .813 OPS with 28 home runs in 2022, and he mauled lefties to the tune of a .950 OPS. The 30-year-old would bring flexibility the Twins tend to prize: he could replace Gio Urshela as regular third baseman, platoon with Luis Arraez or Alex Kirilloff at first, and maybe even spell the lefty outfielders occasionally. 

Why He Still Might Be Available in January:

Drury was worth 3.0 fWAR this past year. In a career spanning eight MLB seasons, he has been worth 3.6 fWAR total. That tells you a whole lot about his pre-2022 track record. There's a reason he had to settle for a minor-league deal with the non-contending Reds, and made only a $700K salary during his breakout season.

Understandably, he'll be looking to maximize his earnings, having made only around $5 million in his entire career. But teams might be leary of making a big commitment to a possible flash-in-the-pan. If Drury is seeking the security of a multi-year deal with a lower AAV, he'd fit nicely into the Twins' planning.

Want to read about more lineup-boosting targets in free agency, including Aaron Judge, Jose Abreu, and Brandon Nimmo? Check out the full Offseason Handbook chapter, Hunting for a Big Bat, now available to all Twins Daily Caretakers. You can also check out this hub page to find all previously released chapters and editions.

 

View full article

[CRF]

Out of those three guys mentioned, I'd go for Drury. No interest in the other two. 

[rv78]

Haniger could be another part-timer with with injuries. Martinez is becoming that washed up veteran and Drury could take at bats away from the main guys in the lineup that should be playing every day. Really? And, if they are all still there late in the Free Agent signing period that tells me that no one else wants them, so of course they would fit perfectly on the Twins roster. Seriously, the Twins have to stop with eating the left-overs on the Friday after Thanksgiving and start feasting on Turkey Day.

[DJL44]

Why would you sign Drury to replace Urshela when you could just keep Urshela?

[Nick Nelson]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Why would you sign Drury to replace Urshela when you could just keep Urshela?

I was thinking about this particular question yesterday. I think I'd prefer Drury because of the defensive versatility. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I was thinking about this particular question yesterday. I think I'd prefer Drury because of the defensive versatility. 

Urshela has played SS and I'm sure he could play 1B. The Twins don't need any more second basemen, they're about 5 deep at that position.

[Old fox]

Haniger to me is a better choice than Martinez or Drury because he more of a position need than other 2. 

[Doctor Gast]

We've already had our best value early in Garlic Sauce. We don't need any more.

[Heistyman]

I'm in the Haniger camp as he fills the lefty mashing need and covers some ground in the outfield.

[Kipp35]

Why are we content with an article listing players that "maybe available in January". Are we once again going to be okay with this team waiting and taking what scraps are left? I think as fans, we need to demand better. This practice didn't work last year. And, why are we still looking for the batting title champ to be a platoon player? Any other team would be looking to get him as many at bats as possible, NOT reducing them in a platoon. All I can do lately is just shake my head at these decisions.

[Nick Nelson]

21 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

Why are we content with an article listing players that "maybe available in January". Are we once again going to be okay with this team waiting and taking what scraps are left? I think as fans, we need to demand better. This practice didn't work last year. 

It didn't? They signed Correa as the "scraps" of last offseason and he was literally their best player. 

[stringer bell]

I think JD might be toast. I'd be hesitant about signing Haniger, given his injury history and the Twins recent history with acquiring soon-to-be injured players. Drury is intriguing, given his versatility, and success last year. 

[mnfireman]

Why don't the Twins just sign Drury and Haniger in hopes they provide 3.0 WAR each. They could then trade Kepler, Arraez, Gordon and Polanco for a SP and a starting C. Might have to make it a 3 team trade as I don't know if Oakland has any starting pitching ready to be a #2 or #3 immediately, but Murphy would be nice. This trade then makes room for Larnach, Kirilloff, Miranda, and Lewis immediately and opens spots for Martin and Lee if they are ready by August or September. Of course would still need to sign a short term SS or play Urshela there until Lewis is ready in late May or June.

There is some sarcasm implied here, but probably not as much as should be.

Martinez may experience a late career resurgence and turn into Nelson Cruz, but this team doesn't need bat only players who are on the backside of their careers. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The only name I would consider here is Haniger, but only if the price is right.  We don't need a full time DH and the Drury/Urshela comparison is close enough that I would run with what you know instead of gambling on the unknown.

The FA outfield market is pretty slim this year

Nimmo would be a great fit, but will probably be priced out of the Twins market.

I would look at a make-good contract for Conforto.  He still has upside and could be re-signed if he does well. 

[FlyingFinn]

If we want an older, slow guy, sign me up for a great hitter like Jose Abreu. I like Haniger but really would rather spend money on Nimmo. Abreu's RH bat balances our lineup more and gives us some insurance at 1B if Kirilloff doesn't fully recover.

[mikelink45]

Forget it - we just signed Garlick - we are set.

[darin617]

Why chase older "has beens" when you are better off signing younger players. 

The MN way I guess, sign them 3-4 years too late and suffer.

[Nick Nelson]

5 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Why chase older "has beens" when you are better off signing younger players. 

The MN way I guess, sign them 3-4 years too late and suffer.

Young players don't really exist in free agency, by virtue of needing 6 seasons of service to get there. 

[darin617]

6 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Young players don't really exist in free agency, by virtue of needing 6 seasons of service to get there. 

Obviously, but the guys listed rally haven't been great in 2-3 years. Hard pass on all.

[adorduan]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

It didn't? They signed Correa as the "scraps" of last offseason and he was literally their best player. 

Do you expect a Correa level player to be available late every year? I don't. I think it was the exception. not the norm.

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

It didn't? They signed Correa as the "scraps" of last offseason and he was literally their best player. 

This only reflects their past mistakes. If you can sign a player that falls into your lap late in the game and he is your best player then what have you done up to that point in previous years? NOTHING! That alone is an embarassment.

[Rosterman]

Kansas City just dropped BRENT ROOKER from their roster. Chance to grab a solid right-handed bat who can play the outfield and first base, and make our trade with San Diego look like a real steal.When we need righties in the line-up, putting him  and Garlick on opposite sides of Buxton will give the Twins everything they need to........

 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, adorduan said:

Do you expect a Correa level player to be available late every year? I don't. I think it was the exception. not the norm.

They got Donaldson late in the offseason. They waited out Cruz's limited market. I don't think it's quite accurate to say this hasn't been an effective strategy for a team trying to make the most of its resources. The alternative is to pay a huge premium up front and win them over. I'm down for that if it's like Correa or Rodon but guys like that in Minnesota's realistic scope are in short supply.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

Obviously, but the guys listed rally haven't been great in 2-3 years. Hard pass on all.

Martinez has made 4 straight All-Star teams and has hit 90 doubles the past two seasons. Haniger had 40 HR and 100 RBI in 2021. Drury just had a career year. ?‍♂️

[DocBauer]

Haniger interests me a lot. He's not young at 32yo, but not old either. The bat and power are solid. He could be a fine starter to an excellent RH role player with the likes of Larnach, Wallner, and AK. There is some risk due to past injuries.

He made $7.75M in 2022 and I had him in my blueprint for $10M per and maybe 2yrs. I mean, Martin is the only potential RH OF even close to the parent club right now.

I predicted a raise of a couple $M over his 2022 salary due to inflation and a need to just "get it done". Maybe I'm over pricing him?

Don't want a full time DH unless he's pretty special. I want the best, deepest and most balanced roster I can get and rotate DH. Martinez is close to being that "special" DH. Just not fully convinced at 35yo and a decrease in HR power that he had a lot left. 

Drury would be a nice fit for a solid bat and lineup versatility. But do we trust his breakout? I'm going to say no unless he comes in late and cheap.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Martinez has made 4 straight All-Star teams and has hit 90 doubles the past two seasons. Haniger had 40 HR and 100 RBI in 2021. Drury just had a career year. ?‍♂️

This is the first year Drury has ever hit, outside of a pretty limited sample in 2021. Haniger didn't play much in 2022, didn't play at all in 2020, and wasn't exactly an elite bat in 2019. Martinez has seen his HRs and OPS+ crater since 2018 and was an all-star only on scholarship this year. As options for a "big bopper" all of them have pretty big concerns on them to be a player to be counted on for run production in the heart of the order in 2023. right?

Haniger is probably the best for for the Twins (RH OF who beats up on lefties while doing just fine against righties), but I'm nervous AF about adding another guy with injury concerns to the roster.

I'd agree: keeping Urshela makes at least as much sense as trying to add Drury (and Urshela has a better track record overall as a hitter)

The only way Martinez makes sense is if you're convinced he regains his HR stroke, which seems like a gamble, because we really don't want a DH-only player unless they really are an elite hitter. 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

They got Donaldson late in the offseason. They waited out Cruz's limited market. I don't think it's quite accurate to say this hasn't been an effective strategy for a team trying to make the most of its resources. The alternative is to pay a huge premium up front and win them over. I'm down for that if it's like Correa or Rodon but guys like that in Minnesota's realistic scope are in short supply.

How did the Donaldson get work out?

 

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

As a .261/.335/.476 career hitter, he's overqualified for the Kyle Garlick role, but if Max Kepler were traded, Haniger could step in as the new right fielder, thus allowing Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Nick Gordon to vie for at-bats in left (while reducing the dependence on any of them individually).

I fail to understand why Kepler needs to be traded in order to make room for anyone.

I struggle to identify any teams out of the 29 choices that would be interested in trading a corner outfielder who followed a season of .211/.306/.413. with a season of .227/.318/.348 with an 8.5 million dollar bill attached. 

I'm also picking up an implication that Kepler DOES NOT have to vie for at-bats. While Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Gordon do.

I guess... I wonder why Kepler does not have to vie for at-bats after two poor seasons at the plate back to back. 

Why are many absolutely willing to give Kepler an everyday job and look elsewhere for team improvement? 

I rank a big bopper in the OF as our #1 need this off-season and back to back poor season is why. 

Kep can keep a job as the guy who plays CF when Buxton is hurt and vies for at-bats when Buxton is healthy. 

Until he finds whatever he lost from 2019. 

[mnfireman]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

How did the Donaldson get work out?

 

2 seasons of roughly 30% above MLB average offense, league average defense, then flipped for his replacement, the back-up C/DH and salary savings to sign Correa. Not too bad, I would say.

 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

2 seasons of roughly 30% above MLB average offense, league average defense, then flipped for his replacement, the back-up C/DH and salary savings to sign Correa. Not too bad, I would say.

 

Don't forget the impact in the Dugout and clubhouse.  He made Correa an even better clubhouse personality.  We won by subtraction and then found someone who could life the club with personality.  

He loses his temper in Chicago and gets suspended.   His anger and his outbursts are negatives the Twins are glad to be rid of and we did an excellent job getting rid of him.