Does a Michael Fulmer Reunion Make Sense for the Twins?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Going into the 2023 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins once again will need to address their bullpen. This past offseason the only acquisition of note was veteran Joe Smith and it took 34 games for them to cut bait. Maybe it makes sense to re-up with the lone free agent they acquired at the trade deadline.

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

After a disappointing 2021 season, the Twins needed to turn things around on the mound. Rocco Baldelli, Wes Johnson, and Pete Maki were cycling through arms left and right. Unfortunately, there wasn’t a substantial foot placed forward for them to do so in 2022. While Sonny Gray was acquired to bolster the rotation, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were always going to tax the group. Adding only a 38-year-old veteran in Joe Smith wasn’t good enough.

At the deadline, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine addressed the situation by bringing in Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer. Although Jhoan Duran had developed into a late-inning threat, it was clear he needed help. Unfortunately, the former Baltimore Orioles All-Star closer regressed a bit and wasn’t the asset Minnesota needed him to be. Under contract through 2024, there’s plenty of time for him to change that tune.

Fulmer was the lone impending free agent the Twins acquired at the deadline and he was basically as expected. The ERA rose to 3.70 and his FIP suggested room for more regression as well. Although he struck out roughly the same amount of batters and walked fewer in his time with Minnesota, Fulmer got hit a bit harder both in and out of the park.

The former first-round pick and Rookie of the Year award winner transitioned to relief pitching full-time just one season ago. The 2.97 ERA in 2021 was sparkling, and while his FIP number sat at 3.46, he showed well working as the Detroit Tigers closer. Gregory Soto took over that role this season for Detroit, but Fulmer showed an ability to be mixed in throughout the game, and provide a high-leverage arm whenever called upon.

After seeing a slight velocity jump during the 2021 season, Fulmer was back averaging 94 mph this year. His 63.5% slider usage was higher than it had ever been, but that was also because of how effective the pitch has become for him. Minnesota has shown an affinity for arms with good sliders in recent seasons, and Fulmer coming back with that in mind makes a decent amount of sense.

Having made just shy of $5 million last season, it’ll be interesting to see what the market looks like. Fulmer probably could’ve cashed in on a bigger payday had he been a free agent prior to 2022, but his performance this year doesn’t drag him down a ton either. He will be 30 years old in 2023, and there’s plenty of reason to believe in his durability, especially as a reliever.

How much the Twins liked Fulmer in their mix down the stretch likely factors heavily into any conversation about a reunion, but it’s hard to call his ability anything but a boost to the pen in 2023.

Would you welcome Fulmer back as an addition to the Twins bullpen next season? At what price do you feel comfortable doing a deal?

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[Brandon]

3 year 21-24 million max.  I wouldn’t go any higher then that for him.  He might only be worth a 3 year 18 million deal.  I look at a good reliever like this.  They throw around 1/3 the innings of a good starter and probably a little more compared to good Twins starters.  I use 60 innings for relievers and 180 for starters.  Anyways if a great starter can get 30 million then a great reliever is worth 10 million.  It’s rudimentary and leaves out other factors but for back of napkin calculations this works for me.  I would think a good starter who throws 180 innings is worth 20-25 million per season.  You can use Bassit as an example.  See what he gets per season in FA and divide by 3 to determine what Fullmer should get on a per season basis. 
 

How do you determine what Fullmer is worth? Or any reliever for that matter?

[LewFordLives]

Yeah, I would like to see him back. They need to sign at least one other half-way decent relief pitcher. Will they do it????  This front office has shown that they don't like to spend resources on the bullpen.

I think a decent comp would actually be a former Twins pitcher currently being profiled on this website, Trevor May. May's numbers coming off his age 30 season were very similar to Fullmer's. May got a two year deal for a little over $15 million from the Mets. With inflation, it's possible Fullmer could get more, although you could also argue the Mets overpaid. If I were the GM I would be willing to do 2 years at $15 million, but probably no more.

[awmonahan]

Yes, sign him! Durable, good relievers are needed on this team.

[Karbo]

We need multi inning guys.

[TwinsDr2021]

Not really sure I see the need to sign him to a multiple year contract or really bring him back. The Twins have to figure out what they have in all these old pitching prospects. WInder, Varland, Canterino, Balazovic, Mooney, Sands, Legumina, They also need to figure out what they have with some a bit younger, Enlow, Cruz, Henriquez, Festa and SWR.

Finally not block the younger guys if they prove worthy for promotion (maybe not this year but next year.) Prielipp,  Raya, Medina,

A real pitching pipeline is bring up a starter each year and a couple of relief pitchers so you can cycle them out prior to losing them in free agency. One could say they have Ober and Ryan and need somebody like Varland or SWR to step up this year and have a Prielipp or somebody next year. They have Duran, Jax, Moran in the pen maybe a Winder and Canterino, Henriquez, Festa or Sands steps up this year,

[Rosterman]

Not sure if a long-term contract is good for the team, or that he will get one in the current marketplace. 

The question: who would he bump from the current bullpen. And, is there anyone better (and in the eyes of the Twins, cheaper). 

[Trov]

I would not give him anything more than 2 years.  Not normally a fan of any relief guy past 2 years, normally like the 1 year deals for relief guys in FA.  They fall off the cliff so quickly sometimes, and very few teams want to trade for relief guys under contracts and prefer the rental guys.  

[ashbury]

He's been an effective but not lights-out reliever for a couple years now.  At age 30-32 he might be a good risk for a three year $15M guaranteed contract, or some variant on that with options to raise or lower the risk/reward to both parties.  If some other team wants to guarantee him $20M, I'm thinking the Twins will find someone else.  Above-average pitching is not a commodity in oversupply, though, so maybe my offer is a little light in the present market, and if there were nothing but green flags from the on-field staff and the FO talent evaluators during his short stay with the Twins, I wouldn't pinch the last penny if he wants a little more. 

[jimbo92107]

Fulmer looks like he still has plenty of gas in the tank. Not a shutdown guy, but a good, determined reliever. If they can keep his price tag reasonable, sign him.