Is a Splurge on Relief Worthwhile for Minnesota?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season the Minnesota Twins went into the year hoping to have a revamped pitching staff. While they did make moves on the starting front, they largely left the bullpen untouched. It didn’t go well and now it’s worth wondering if a complete opposite plan of action should be in the cards.

 

Image courtesy of Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine added Emilio Pagan as somewhat of a throw-in alongside Chris Paddack right before Opening Day. Of course, that move also sent Taylor Rogers to San Diego. Aside from the deal with the Padres, Minnesota’s only move of note in relief was to sign 38-year-old veteran Joe Smith. He was ultimately designated for assignment after struggling into the summer.

Minnesota found themselves using a whopping 38 pitchers, of which position players Nick Gordon and Jermaine Palacios were both included. It was a franchise record, and that level of usage is not ideal when multiple starters have the ability to only give five innings on a far too consistent basis.

There’s plenty of money for the front office to allocate this offseason, but how much of it goes towards the bullpen, and should a significant chunk go to one player?

Last offseason the largest deal given to a reliever was from the Los Angeles Angels in their pact with Raisel Iglesias. He secured $58 million on a four-year deal, checking in with a $14 million average annual value. Multiple relievers got two-year deals worth more than $15 million per year, but only Kenley Jansen’s deal commanded $16 million for a single season. The only other pitcher to reach double digits on a yearly basis was Corey Knebel, who got $10 million from the Philadelphia Phillies.

Iglesias worked as the Angels closer but was far from lights out with a 4.04 ERA. His 3.17 FIP suggested the lack of production wasn’t entirely his fault, and eventually, he was dealt to Atlanta prior to the deadline. Jansen led the league in games finished and saves for the Braves, but he was still nowhere near the arm that went to All-Star games from 2016-18. Coming off an injury that allowed him to pitch just 25 2/3 innings in 2021, Knebel regressed quite a bit for the Phillies. He did work as their closer, and the 3.43 ERA wasn’t awful, but he had a 41/28 K/BB and was constantly flirting with disaster.

This class of relievers will be interesting. There are some big names that don’t match production anymore such as Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. There are some former Twins such as Trevor May and Taylor Rogers. There is some youth, but most of the group has hit 30, and really the only mega-deal-worthy arm was Edwin Diaz who signed an extension for $102 million remaining with the Mets for the next five years.

I’m not sure there’s a Liam Hendriks or Iglesias in this group, but there’s certainly value to be had and there are guys that will command a solid sum for more than one season. Paying relievers isn’t something this front office has done, and it’s hard to think they’ll reverse course on that now. One would hope the bullpen is a bigger focus than it has been in years past, but that still comes by way of a focused approach and a lesser dollar amount.

How much of their budget would you prefer the Twins allocate on relief pitching this season? Do they really need a big splash in the bullpen?

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[Linus]

I get that it seems risky to sign invest in bullpen arms. You know what is far more risky?  Consistently trying to build your bullpen with cast offs and rejects.  You might protect yourself from wasted payroll but you are certainly taking big risks with performance on the field. 

[farmerguychris]

Is it worthwhile?  Only if you want to win ballgames.  Impossible to have starters go only 4-5 innings (which i'm fine with) but you can't do this without a great BP.  Must invest here if you want to win - its that simple.  Doesn't mean need to sign big time FA arms, but convert more starters who can have the potential success of Duran.

[EGFTShaw]

I am of the opinion, even if it's Diaz, not going beyond 2 years with a RP when talking Big Bucks.

[Nashvilletwin]

32 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Is it worthwhile?  Only if you want to win ballgames.  Impossible to have starters go only 4-5 innings (which i'm fine with) but you can't do this without a great BP.  Must invest here if you want to win - its that simple.  Doesn't mean need to sign big time FA arms, but convert more starters who can have the potential success of Duran.

Exactly - if the team is committed to a strategy of 2x through the order or 5 innings at most for the starting staff - and there is no reason to think that is not the case - then that leaves about 45-50% of available innings to be filled. Add into that the facts that none of our starters are true #1 types and our offence isn’t what could be called prolific, and it turns out we are usually in a tight game or losing when our starter is pulled.

Therefore, you’d better have a great pen if you want to compete for the pennant. There is no other choice. So we shouldn’t lay up in pen investment if that’s what it takes. We really could use three too notch relievers to add to the current squad.
 

[Blyleven2011]

Do we need a big splash  in the bullpen  ...

See Kansas city royals bullpen  in their world series run of 2014-15 ...

It was the best ever in my opinion  and that is what we need ...

We need some help and yes it would be nice of the FO would reverse there course  and find top proven bullpen arms ...

[baul0010]

8 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Do we need a big splash  in the bullpen  ...

See Kansas city royals bullpen  in their world series run of 2014-15 ...

It was the best ever in my opinion  and that is what we need ...

We need some help and yes it would be nice of the FO would reverse there course  and find top proven bullpen arms ...

Maybe would could fill our 40-man with waiver claims hoping 1 of them develops a slider and can pitch 40 innings of mid 3 era's for us!

[AceWrigley]

I can't believe we used 38 pitchers. That's an insane number of arms to be plied at the major league level. The 1970 Baltimore Orioles won the world series and used a total of 12 pitchers all year. The 1974 Oakland A's won the world series using 11 pitchers all year. Maybe part of the decline of the popularity of baseball is the use of so many players and loss of personal identity in a baseball game.

Also, according to FanGraphs relief pitchers accounted for only about 9-10% of the value (in wins above replacement) that all position players and pitchers created last year. And yet, they occupy about 25 percent of roster slots. Relief pitchers are eating baseball alive, lol.

[gman]

With the current age of the roster and minimal cost, I would like to see them add about $30-35 mil per year for the next 2 years in additional bullpen help. I don't expect the starters to get many more outs next year then they did this year and a lights out bullpen would nail down a few more wins. Make every game a playoff game with the starters getting less than 18 outs per game.

[jmlease1]

I'm not a fan of handing out multi-year, big-money deals for most relievers. I look at the Twins bullpen and really see only one need right now: one more RH arm to insure us against Alcala not coming back strong from injury. Fulmer quality or above. (Trevor May is interesting for a bounceback candidate at a good price, Fulmer is someone I would be happy to have back, etc. All of them on a 1 + team option deal, in the $4-6M AAV range)

the other way I'd look at the 'pen is 6 1 inning(ish) guys and 2 2 inning guys. Lopez, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Alcala fit the 1 inning mold. Winder, Sands, Maeda, and/or Moran could fit the 2 inning mold. If Maeda starts, I'd think about slotting Winder & Sands into a planned 2 inning role and float Moran into the 1 inning crew for the later innings. If we sign a Fulmer/May type, Moran goes to the 2 inning group with Winder/Sands. bridge us better from 5 inning starts to the late innings and Duran/Lopez.

Splurging big money on relievers just doesn't seem like good value to me. Hendriks has been amazing...but his ERA, FIP, and WHIP have all gone up the past 3 years. Trend or no? Diaz was a monster in 2018, bad in 2019, a monster again in 2020, just ok in 2021, and a monster again in 2022. Stuff like that happens with relievers, even great ones all the time. Smaller samples and wild volatility. Very few Joe Nathans, who dominate for 6 years in a row exist. If you find one, pay 'em...but I'd rather not sign and hope.

[Blyleven2011]

9 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Maybe part of the decline of the popularity of baseball is the use of so many players and loss of personal identity in a baseball game .

Ah , the good old days when you knew who played for whom ....

It is getting difficult for a team to have an identity  , far more difficult for the fan to cheer for a player they perhaps like if they keep shuffling him out of the everyday lineup or back to the minors  ... 

Free agency also contributed to this , year to year you never know who is going to be playing for who ...

It has definitely confused the casual fan and us real fans have to follow closely on transactions on who's playing where ...

Ah the good old days  .... Great memories of great pitching staffs year after year ....

[tony&rodney]

If 4.7 innings is all you are going to get from your starting staff .... the season is lost. Any collection of arms will break down if they are used too often. Pitchers have various assortments of pitches, with the starting staff usually having 3-5 pitches in their arsenals as opposed to the 1-3 pitches of a reliever. Often a pitcher will not have total command and control of all of their pitches and this is the source of problems for pitchers. A relief pitcher, having fewer pitches, will not be on their game all of the time and using 4-6 relief pitchers per game will eventually expose and weaken any bullpen. The Twins have some decent arms for the pen already on their roster: Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Moran, Jax, Alcala, Maeda, Henriquez, Sands, Winder, and a few others potentially. They could certainly use an addition but big money for a reliever may not help. The better answer is to push the starters to around a 6 inning average. A free agent and maybe a couple of guys via trade will help the starting staff. Hopefully, our analytic crew has taken note of how Houston and Philadelphia used their starters this year.

[CRF]

Doesn't matter who we sign/get for the pen, if we don't use our starting pitchers differently. Whether by design, or effectiveness...we can't keep letting starters go 3-4-5 innings EVERY start. That will kill the bullpen over the course of the season. I think we need a new philosophy in regards to how we use our pitchers.

[Karbo]

at least 2 multi inning relievers are a must.

[rv78]

I would not spend on another reliever. My money goes to Rodon to fill the Ace vacancy in the rotation. This effectively adds another reliever by pushing either Maeda or Winder to the bullpen to be used as a long reliever which is soooo badly needed if the starters are not going to go at least 6 innings. The rotation if it is healthy would be Rodon, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, and Ober. The back end of the bullpen would be Jax, Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, Lopez, Duran. 

[roger]

Has anyone else wondered if the Front Office and Manager talk about things such as pitcher use?  Sure doesn't seem that way to me.  A manager who takes his pitchers out of games by the 5th inning and a FO that doesn't invest in several experienced multi-inning pitchers to get those next couple innings seems to me to be an organization that is outta whack!

As for help for next year's pen.  I have said it several times in these past few days, I want QUALITY over QUANTITY.  Go out and sign the best damn late inning reliever you can to go with Lopez and Duran.  That just might give them what KC had back whenever.  And if the manager is going to continue his 5 inning B.S., they had better make certain there are at least two multi-inning guys in that pen...whether signed as free agents or from within.

[awmonahan]

I hope the FO takes an honest look at their roster and in-game management practices this off-season. If they do, they should invest in solid middle relief. If they're unwilling to do so, then the team can lose a lot, again. 

[adorduan]

Well, if they aren't going to go get good starters, a great bullpen is a must. KC showed the blueprint to winning a World series with a great bullpen. Frankly it's the only chance small/mid market teams have.

[Old fox]

I wonder the philosophy of pitchIng department needs considerable updating as the idea of all relief pitchers are built to go 1 inning only is a scam. Some pitchers have the skills & ability to go longer. Same goes for starting pitchers and it should be made according to each pitcher  ability & skills.  Jurking  a pitcher after the first hiccup causes problems. I certainly don’t buy Balddy’s theory that it prevents injuries. His theory shows he doesn’t have a game plan beyond the 6th inning a one inning for relief pitchers. 
 

[LewFordLives]

Would you rather sink $25 million per year into someone like Rodon or use that money for 2-3 quality relievers?  In terms of flexibility and risk, option two may be the better strategy. If Rodon gets hurt, not only do you not have him in your rotation but the Twins will still be on the hook for the $100+ million still left on his deal. With relievers you're spreading the injury risk over multiple players and can also sign them to shorter deals.

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Would you rather sink $25 million per year into someone like Rodon or use that money for 2-3 quality relievers?  In terms of flexibility and risk, option two may be the better strategy. If Rodon gets hurt, not only do you not have him in your rotation but the Twins will still be on the hook for the $100+ million still left on his deal. With relievers you're spreading the injury risk over multiple players and can also sign them to shorter deals.

Makes alot of sense  ...

[h2oface]

Kansas City's World Series winning model of mediocre starters going 6 innings but 3 shutdown relievers closing out the wins didn't last long, but it sure was effective. Now teams' FO's and Managers barely let starters complete 5 innings.

Many claim that relievers are not to be paid much and are only good for short term, yet they want Duran to commit to that role and be under paid and tossed out after a couple years as a toasted pen arm. That right there is a reason to try him in the starting rotation and get others to man the pen, and a reason for Duran to push to start to maximize his career earnings. 

[h2oface]

On 11/9/2022 at 9:06 AM, AceWrigley said:

Maybe part of the decline of the popularity of baseball is the use of so many players and loss of personal identity in a baseball game.

I think that it is the biggest part of the decline. The FO folks are hired guns, with little loyalty to the teams that hire them... virtual visitors running the show. They are most interested in advancing their personal career, and would leave for the bigger money without remorse. They trade off the fan favorites for prospects continually and fill rosters with other filler visitors for a year or two if they are lucky and the home team becomes predominantly strangers. We end up haveing to root for many we don't even like. It can make even a life long fan become disenchanted.

[dxpavelka]

Fix the rotation first.  Move Duran to the rotation.  If the rotation ain't fixed a fixed bullpen is useless.