Twins Missing a Mauer Level of Certainty

[Ted Schwerzler]

Going into this offseason, the Minnesota Twins know they must make some sort of addition behind the plate. The 40-man roster currently has just one catcher on it, and there are not ideal solutions throughout the system either. Unlike a time when Joe Mauer was a given, the Twins may have more questions than ever at catcher.

 

Image courtesy of David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past few seasons, Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, Rocco Baldelli (and Paul Molitor before him) have seen their starter behind the plate be a revolving door. It’s certainly not an easy position to generate consistency from, but since 2014 Minnesota has had the same catcher in the Opening Day lineup in three consecutive seasons just twice. Kurt Suzuki and Jason Castro, both free-agent veterans at the time, can make that claim. Since, Mitch Garver has drawn two starts with Ryan Jeffers being back there in 2022.

From Opening Day 2004 through 2013, the Twins started a catcher not named Joe Mauer just once, when Mike Redmond was tasked with the job to start 2009. Over a stretch of ten years, Mauer was the most given thing in any Twins lineup. Finding something reminiscent of that run must be a goal for the current roster construction.

Up-the-middle positions in baseball may be the most impactful players on the diamond. Joining a lack of consistency behind the plate is a shortstop revolving door that has seen no player remain more than the back-to-back Opening Day starter since Cristian Guzman in 2004. That laundry list of talents paired with an ever-changing catching situation is something that begs Twins fans to recall Mauer’s greatness.

We’ll likely never see another catcher do what Joe Mauer could. Winning a batting title from that position is difficult, and doing it three times is otherworldly. Mauer’s MVP award in 2009 was one of the best seasons we’ve seen in baseball history. Consistently being able to play at such a physically-demanding position is also not something we see in today's game.

Maybe Jeffers winds up developing into a consistent talent for the Twins. After all, the team was substantially higher on him in the draft than most. Jeffers could represent a strong step forward at the position given his relative youth. Even the best free agent available, Willson Contreras, is no sure thing to remain as a backstop for years since he is already 30 years old. Even if Jeffers never shows a shred of Mauer’s total ability, providing stability at such a necessary position would go a long way for the Twins roster construction.

We’re just a year away from Mauer’s debut on the Hall of Fame ballot. He will likely garner strong consideration to be inducted in that cycle. Eventually, he should find his way in, the numbers are too staggering in his favor. What will be worth wondering is whether Minnesota can find the replacement they’ve been looking for since Mauer moved to first base, and if it happens before his plaque is hung in Cooperstown.

View full article

[Karbo]

I don't see any catchers even close to Mauer's class in the game today. That said, there are a few that would be a big upgrade over Jeffers. Twins should have the payroll to get a good ss and a good c. Will they though or will they simply try to get by with mid-level talent and hope Jeffers develops and wait and hope for health on Lewis?

[Doctor Gast]

Happy bithday Joe! We miss you! Your talent was rare and you deserve to be in the HOF. It'll be difficult to find another Mauer. We don't have anyone close in our organization that's close to make it in the MLB.

[Blyleven2011]

What I miss in baseball today is that nothing seems to matter in the game  ...

Strike outs , baserunning mistakes , missing the cut off man and catchers that can't block the ball , ( there are not alot of good catchers in the league ) , passed balls or wild pitches , the official scorer usually sides with the wild pitch when my eye test says a passed ball by yesteryear standards  , defense is definitely lacking at the catcher position in the league and a catcher is considered a good catcher because he can frame a pitch into a strike , WHAT A CROCK ...

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

[Linus]

Too bad so many people couldn’t enjoy Joe while they had him. 

[dxpavelka]

What the Twins REALLY miss and need is guys with heart.  Stuff you can't measure with analytics.  Two guys on the roster that bring that this year.  Correa and Arraez.  Correa will most likely be gone.  Rosario gone.  Has NOT been adequately replaced in LF.  Cruz gone.  Has NOT been adequately replaced at DH.  You can argue all you want about their production elsewhere after they left but the bottom line is that their production HERE has not been replaced.  Until it is we will continue to struggle.  You can't make soup out of promise and young guys can't perform from the injured list.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

What I miss in baseball today is that nothing seems to matter in the game  ...

Strike outs , baserunning mistakes , missing the cut off man and catchers that can't block the ball , ( there are not alot of good catchers in the league ) , passed balls or wild pitches , the official scorer usually sides with the wild pitch when my eye test says a passed ball by yesteryear standards  , defense is definitely lacking at the catcher position in the league and a catcher is considered a good catcher because he can frame a pitch into a strike , WHAT A CROCK ...

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

I agree.  It'd be nice to see stats comparing runs given up from catcher errors vs what they gain from framing a few strikes from balls.  I believe that having that one leg down on the ground causes more passed balls and on a somewhat related note, it negatively impacts the catcher's ability to get into a solid throwing position to throw our a base stealer.

[rwilfong86]

Mauer was at a level by himself. 

[DocBauer]

One of the biggest "tragedies" in Twins history is Mauer being forced to move from behind the plate. Even then, he turned himself in to a great 1B who could still hit and get OB. I still believe he was miscast as a hitter, especially in his later years, as a #3 hitter and should have been hitting #1 or #2 in the lineup as a table setter. But I digress.

I was too young to ever watch or appreciate Earl Battey as the Twins catcher when the franchise moved to Minnesota. I was a young fan at 5yo listening to my dad and his transistor radio, but when I became a true FAN, was in the mid 70's with Butch Wynegar as the Twins #1 guy. For decades the catcher spot was a game calling, catch and throw position. And if you had one who could hit and provide offense and power, you really had something! But there were so few Bench and Fisk and Carter type players in the league. But then something happened around the late 90's and the start of the new millennium...much like SS...where there was an influx of quality catchers who could do it all. And Mauer was one of the very best EVER, even if his career behind the plate was cut short. He did things no other catcher ever did in the grand history of baseball. Even as a homer, he's a HOF'er in my book.

But it sure seems to me the Twins have been pretty blessed with quality catchers in their history. Wynegar was very good and had flashes offensively. The Twins won 2 WS with Laudner and Harper at catcher. Two completely different players, but each filled their role very well. And we have joked many times about Sal and Drew Butera and Redmond, but they filled a role over the years behind the Twins "starting" catcher. AJ was a fine catcher who was traded away to make room for Mauer. 

So a lot of great catching before and with Mauer. Agreed it's been a little disjointed since then, but not poor. Suzuki was a fine catcher for a few years and so was Castro, as Garver transitioned to taking over the top spot. All 3 of these guys were fine catchers, not studs, who provided what was needed behind the plate, and produced different levels of offense from year to year. Honestly, just good game calling and defense, with solid offense, I can't think of a season for the past 6 or 7 years where the Twins didn't have a "solid", if not good, catching situation. Garver FLASHED BIG TIME, and then regressed. Love the guy, but the Twins made the right move at the right time. 

I've been disappointed in the FO to not address the catcher position more aggressively than they have. They've taken shots with Banuelos and Carmago. They've drafted 5 or 6 catchers in the last couple of drafts to work with and develop. But they are all 2-3yrs away from proving any long term answer. 

That leaves Jeffers and someone to add to fill the roster with a quality secondary option. 

Jeffers, and I know he was a college player, had 2yrs of milb and a little over 600AB in the minors split over rookie/A/AA ball before he was promoted from the taxi squad in 2020. I never bought in to the hype in 2021 that he and Garver were amongst the best tandem in MLB. Again. 2yrs and 600AB in milb before his promotion. He NEVER had a catching coach in college, taught himself, and finally got real defensive coaching once he was a pro.

I was asked recently in a different thread why I believe Jeffers is a good defensive catcher. I could point to a 2.2FWAR, OR the recent TD defensive article from SABR SDI rankings that have him at 2.0, but didn't qualify due to games played. And while I don't subscribe to a site that allows me defensive details, I'd bet his team ERA while catching is better than most alternatives. Or I could just say I don't always understand all of these metrics but have watched him play these past 2 1/2 years and been impressed from what I've seen, and he's usually been the catcher when, win or lose, the team allowed just 3 or less runs. (I really wish someone had the team ERA numbers). I KNOW his throwing numbers aren't great. But is that really the most important thing vs calling a game and having the confidence of the staff? 

We call all agree to disagree. And that's OK. 

I like what I've seen from Jeffers behind the plate, but see potential improvement. I like a 25yo backstop with power who has hit in college, milb, teased at the ML level, and has only about 530AB at the ML level thus far, and was on an upward trend in 2022 before his broken thumb. 

I ask again, honestly, with his still limited AB, if Jeffers had been healthy and finished 2022 with a .245 AVG and 14 HR, would we be having conversations about how he needs to be replaced?

I just don't think we've seen the best of him yet. I am fully on bord trusting improvement/reaching, or starting to reach his potential in 2023. I want a solid co-catcher to complete the lineup. There are larger holes to fill AFTER a co-catcher is brought on board. If 2023 turns out badly, then I'm all in for looking for a different option.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I really wish someone had the team ERA numbers

Someone does. ?  Baseball-reference.com on their Fielding page for catchers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml#all_players_players_advanced_fielding_c_fielding

Sort on the team column for ease of comparison, and you'll see that Jeffers's ERA was more than half a run better than his teammate Rodriguez Gonzalez Sanchez. 

(The fine print: The last I ever looked at literature on Catcher ERA, the conclusion was that it's not a very reliable measure from one year to the next, and therefore not really a repeatable skill.  To be clear, there is skill, it's just CERA doesn't seem to capture it reliably.  Also, if there actually is any meaning to be had in this particular comparison, it may be more a negative reflection on Sanchez than praise for Jeffers, since the same page for 2021 had Sanchez worse than his teammate Higashioka.  IMO such comparisons require a lot more care than I'm capable of.)

[DocBauer]

15 hours ago, ashbury said:

Someone does. ?  Baseball-reference.com on their Fielding page for catchers.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022-specialpos_c-fielding.shtml#all_players_players_advanced_fielding_c_fielding

Sort on the team column for ease of comparison, and you'll see that Jeffers's ERA was more than half a run better than his teammate Rodriguez Gonzalez Sanchez. 

(The fine print: The last I ever looked at literature on Catcher ERA, the conclusion was that it's not a very reliable measure from one year to the next, and therefore not really a repeatable skill.  To be clear, there is skill, it's just CERA doesn't seem to capture it reliably.  Also, if there actually is any meaning to be had in this particular comparison, it may be more a negative reflection on Sanchez than praise for Jeffers, since the same page for 2021 had Sanchez worse than his teammate Higashioka.  IMO such comparisons require a lot more care than I'm capable of.)

I knew someone smarter than me would know right where to look. Thanks! The old phrase there are lies, greater lies, and then statistics comes to mind at times when we talk baseball. There are simply so many different ways to analyze everything in baseball that I agree its impossible to accurately measure or quantify everything player to player or year to year. But regardless if these measurements prove Jeffers more positively or Sanchez more negative, it affirms what my eyes have seen and what my ears have hears.

BTW, absolutely LOVED "Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Sanchez" with the scratch outs. Priceless!