Twins Trade Target: Sean Murphy

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason the Minnesota Twins will unquestionably add a catcher to their organization. The 40-man roster currently boasts only one, and the free-agent landscape isn’t exactly appealing. So why not consider a trade with the Oakland Athletics?

 

Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Entering the offseason, only Ryan Jeffers appears as a catcher for the Twins on the 40-man roster. Willson Contreras is out there as a free agent, but it’s quite the cliff when considering the options behind him. The Twins already know they’ll need to replace the production lost when Carlos Correa opts out and signs elsewhere, so looking to make up ground alongside Jeffers could be beneficial.

To what level the Twins show aggressiveness when grabbing another backstop will probably indicate plenty as to how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine see 2023 going for Jeffers. If they believe he can be healthy and truly break out, then a middling veteran could probably get the job done. If they want to push for more, someone like the Athletics Sean Murphy makes some sense.

Murphy will not come cheap, even from a team like the Athletics where cheap is synonymous with the organization. He’s under team control through the 2025 season and just turned 28 years old. Murphy finished fourth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2020, and grabbed a Gold Glove in 2021. His career 114 OPS+ is notable at the position, and his 120 OPS+ in 2022 was impressive with offense being down across the sport.

Oakland could also be motivated to move Murphy as they have plenty of prospect depth behind the plate. Top prospect Tyler Soderstrom can play catcher, as does their 4th overall prospect Daniel Susac. Although Susac has yet to play above Single-A, Soderstrom made it to Triple-A this season as a 20-year-old.

This is Murphy’s first season of arbitration eligibility, and he is projected to receive $3.5 million for 2023 per MLB Trade Rumors. That would be an absolute steal for a guy that has already produced 10.6 fWAR over his career and was worth a career-best 5.1 fWAR in 2022. One of the best players at the position, still under team control, coming available is something Minnesota will likely need to consider.

Another aspect of the Twins front office leaning heavily into a splash at catcher could be the result of their own valuation of the position throughout the farm. Not only are there no other catchers currently on the 40-man, but it’s a position of weakness across the system as a whole. Andrew Bechtold is at Triple-A but not a highly-rated prospect, and despite the solid year for Chris Williams, he falls into the same boat. Both have spent most of their time playing corner infield positions in their careers. 

Making a move for Murphy would certainly hurt some of the depth within the Twins system, but it could satisfy a need the organization is dealing with as a whole. Jeffers is younger and under team control through the 2026 season, but allowing him more time to play second fiddle may not be the worst move.

Maybe the Twins would prefer a situation where their top option isn't challenge, but like the situation when Garver was present, maybe there's benefit to a 1A and a 1B. With a lineup that could use punch, exploiting a position often without if could be beneficial. How the front office attacks the backup role should remain something of intrigue this winter.

View full article

[MTV]

Murphy is high-end, at would be a great addition to the system. However I feel that SS and an Ace would be higher needs and the Twins don’t have as much prospect capitol to get a stud like Murphy. That’s completely fine, as Jeffers feels like a Platoon option at worst. Shoot for someone with less trade capitol but still a good amount of control.

[CRF]

The Twins should've tried to make a move to get Murphy at the deadline, this past season. He'd be a huge upgrade over Jeffers, and he would've been over Sanchez too. I'd love to see him in a Twins uni. . 

[Rosterman]

We sadly should be remembering that Jeffers made the jump on 2020 from AA ball. He should've spent the good part of 2021 at AAA, learning to catch a higher caliber pitcher, working on framing and defense. I had hopes that Jeffers and Rortvedt would be our catching duo going forwards.

Instead, he was pushed into fulltime play in 2021.

It is a big change to catch pitchers who are really good and know their stuff, rather than those still working on stuff in the minors, and in the minors you can work on stuff yourself. It is a pressure situation, especially for a catcher, to learn on-the-job in the majors.

Jeffers could have the bat, but does he have the defense to be a long-term guy behind-the-plate.

Sadly the Twins don't have many up-and-coming alternatives, and they will also have to learn on the job if they jump from AA ball with little AAA experience behind them.

Murphy is one of the few trade chips. The Twins have some players and blocked prospects (an abundance of shortstop candidates). They can also dangle guys like Enlow, Balazovic, Sands to a team like Oakland as part of a package, I would think. 

The Twins have a good core, just need to get that right-handed power bat, figure out shortstop, decide if Miranda or Urshela plays third, and can Kirilloff work into longer term plans. 

But they need a catcher, or a catcher that will allow Jeffers to be backup as he continues to improve.

Oh, and they need health. Maeda, Mahle, Paddack, Winder are all still questionable.

[ashbury]

If Oakland wants some of our can't-miss-bat busts (Sabato, etc) and one of the 99 middle infielders we drafted #3 and below in 2022, go for it.  That probably won't get the job done, and if the conversation starts and ends with Brooks Lee and/or legitimate pitching prospects then I don't see it happening.

[Trov]

The move could be made, if they sign a SS to long term deal, because an deal would require either Lewis, or Lee I would guess, and some pitching as well.  This would hurt our possible SS options down the road.  I am for it if we have SS on lock for another 3 plus years minimum. 

[Steve71]

We would have to empty the cupboard to get him from the A's, who notoriously drive a very hard bargain.  I love him, but am afraid we would have to give up a ton to get him.

[Doctor Gast]

We are really hurting at catching recent past, present and well into the future. We absolutely need Murphy, especially due the change of the game. Signing Correa should be our #1 priority but obtaining Murphy should be #2. We can go the 3 way route and trade some of our expendable veterans to a 3rd team for them to help us out on the prospects with OAK.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A young, cost controlled, two way catcher...

I don't think people realize how high the cost would be to trade for him.  We are probably talking two top-five prospects (pitchers) plus another starter or two (Ushela, Polanco, Arraez).

His bat would keep him in the lineup, but he would still probably only catch 100 games.

[chpettit19]

Murphy's first 4 seasons look pretty comparable to Realmuto's. Realmuto got traded with only 1 year of control left (if I'm remembering correctly). He brought back the Phillies starting catcher (Jorge Alfaro) who'd been with the team for part of 3 years like Jeffers has been with the Twins. But Alfaro was significantly better than Jeffers has been. They also got the Phillies #1 prospect (Sixto Sanchez) who was also a top 20 global prospect at the time. The last piece was a toss in flier arm in Low-A (Will Stewart). With the extra control the Twins would get they'd have to at least match this level of deal. So 1 young MLB starter (Arraez?), an elite prospect (Lewis or Lee?), and a flier arm (Raya or Medina? these types of fliers are hard to predict), plus probably another flier prospect since Lewis and Lee aren't as valuable as Sixto was back then. Do we think that's worth it?

Arraez, Lewis, Medina, Flier A ball player for Murphy is probably what it takes.

[GNess]

Murphy played 116 games at catcher and had over 600 total plate appearances this season. He should be a trade target - he is an elite player at his position. 

[mikelink45]

I would love to have him.  Figure out our young roster and trade the excess.  Minor league ratings mean nothing if they are not moving into the majors. 

[weitz41]

The price would be high..Very high... If it wasn't the A's would have already traded him. I'd guess depending on what happens at SS would determine what will happen. I'd prefer Contreras over parting with the prospects. 4 years @ 15-20 mil the farm should produce a replacement for 1 or both catchers by then. 

[Game7-91]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

So 1 young MLB starter (Arraez?), an elite prospect (Lewis or Lee?), and a flier arm (Raya or Medina? these types of fliers are hard to predict), plus probably another flier prospect since Lewis and Lee aren't as valuable as Sixto was back then. Do we think that's worth it?

Arraez, Lewis, Medina, Flier A ball player for Murphy is probably what it takes.

If this roster was better filled out, yes. As it stands now, no, its not worth it. This strikes me as the kind of trade a team on the cusp makes. Twins arent there yet.

[Riverbrian]

I find baseballtradevalues to be very close to accurate when you plug trades that actually happen into it. The Twins have no one in the Sean Murphy value ballpark. Baseballtradevalues has Sean Murphy with a median value of 51.3. Shohei Ohtani has median value of 52.  

Sean Murphy:

2022 - .250 18 HR's. OPS .759

2021 - .216 17 HR's - OPS .710

Shohei Ohtani:

2022 - .273 34 HR's - OPS .875

2021 - .257 46 HR's - OPS .965

Please look at the offensive numbers of Mr. Murphy -  .250 18 HR's and .710. How many outfielders are feeling secure they will keep their jobs with numbers like that. Please don't over pay for catching. Don't ever over pay for catching. For the price you over pay you could acquire a SUPERSTAR. Oneil Cruz would be cheaper to acquire. You get Shane Bieber for that price. 

I have a better idea... if the catching prices are inflated and they are and they have been for a long time now. A better idea would be to... IDK... Develop your own and then trade that incredible inflated value to someone else. 

Of course,.. it's hard to build that young catcher into inflated value when you are buying his replacement at the inflated price instead. ?

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I find baseballtradevalues to be very close to accurate when you plug trades that actually happen into it. The Twins have no one in the Sean Murphy value ballpark. Baseballtradevalues has Sean Murphy with a median value of 51.3. Shohei Ohtani has median value of 52.  

Sean Murphy:

2022 - .250 18 HR's. OPS .759

2021 - .216 17 HR's - OPS .710

Shohei Ohtani:

2022 - .273 34 HR's - OPS .875

2021 - .257 46 HR's - OPS .965

Please look at the offensive numbers of Mr. Murphy -  .250 18 HR's and .710. How many outfielders are feeling secure they will keep their jobs with numbers like that. Please don't over pay for catching. Don't ever over pay for catching. For the price you over pay you could acquire a SUPERSTAR. Oneil Cruz would be cheaper to acquire. You get Shane Bieber for that price. 

I have a better idea... if the catching prices are inflated and they are and they have been for a long time now. A better idea would be to... IDK... Develop your own and then trade that incredible inflated value to someone else. 

Of course,.. it's hard to build that young catcher into inflated value when you are buying his replacement at the inflated price instead. ?

A reason the trade values site is so believable is that the valuations take into account the number of years of team control, and the cost of the remaining salary commitment.  These are things a real GM has to consider too.  If you trade for Ohtani, you pay $30M* for 2023, and then after that he leaves.  If you trade for Murphy, you have him for 3 years at arbitration prices, which will likely total less than Ohtani's 1 year.  1 year of a superstar versus 3 years of a better than average player at a key position.  Strictly player versus player for one year you'd take Ohtani and so would I, but factoring in all the roster and salary considerations makes it a considerably closer decision... which the trade value you quoted seems to reflect.

Having Murphy's .759 OPS in 2022 means not having Sanchez's .659 for part of the season, and/or Jeffers's .648.  Let's don't even think about Sandy Leon.  A hundred points of OPS, when the glove is good, is pretty big.

We're on the same page, though, that the Twins aren't trading productively for either of these gentlemen unless they get awfully creative.

*I'm going from baseball-reference.com, on this

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

A reason the trade values site is so believable is that the valuations take into account the number of years of team control, and the cost of the remaining salary commitment.  These are things a real GM has to consider too.  If you trade for Ohtani, you pay $30M* for 2023, and then after that he leaves.  If you trade for Murphy, you have him for 3 years at arbitration prices, which will likely total less than Ohtani's 1 year.  1 year of a superstar versus 3 years of a better than average player at a key position.  Strictly player versus player for one year you'd take Ohtani and so would I, but factoring in all the roster and salary considerations makes it a considerably closer decision... which the trade value you quoted seems to reflect.

Having Murphy's .759 OPS in 2022 means not having Sanchez's .659 for part of the season, and/or Jeffers's .648.  Let's don't even think about Sandy Leon.  A hundred points of OPS, when the glove is good, is pretty big.

We're on the same page, though, that the Twins aren't trading productively for either of these gentlemen unless they get awfully creative.

*I'm going from baseball-reference.com, on this

I understand all of this. 

The Pirates are also highly unlikely to trade Oneil Cruz even if you paid the price. 

The comparable value names I listed were for shock value to illustrate the potential cost.

Lot's of care free let's go get this Murphy guy posts. 

The condition of our farm system in the aftermath of such a deal would make me shudder. 

 

[Otaknam]

No trades that would involve Lewis, Lee or any of the few remaining starting pitchers with high ceilings. Murphy is good but Lewis and Lee are potential impact players, and those kind of players are essential for excellent teams. 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I understand all of this. 

The Pirates are also highly unlikely to trade Oneil Cruz even if you paid the price. 

The comparable value names I listed were for shock value to illustrate the potential cost.

Lot's of care free let's go get this Murphy guy posts. 

The condition of our farm system in the aftermath of such a deal would make me shudder. 

 

I don't disagree with any of the points here.  And it was fine to use Ohtani as a parallel to Murphy, because both would cost an arm and a leg.  Shortstop Cruz, ditto.

I was pushing back on the notion that Murphy was an overpay versus Ohtani.  3 years versus 1, up-the-middle versus DH when he bats - just not a useful comp.  (Ohtani as a pitcher makes him a unicorn for comparison purposes anyway.)

Ohtani in 2022 would have improved our DH production somewhere around .100 OPS points compared to Arraez/Buxton/Miranda (Sanchez is just a brain fart in that role that I'm not even going to consider him).  Murphy would have improved our catcher OPS by more than that, albeit for fewer games.  You improve overall team OPS any way you can.  Comparing Murphy's bat to an outfielder's is just not relevant; he would have improved our team OPS, pure and simple.

Anyway, I'd love to have Murphy catching or Ohtani pitching and DHing, and it's not gonna happen, so there we are.

[DJL44]

The Cardinals look like a great fit for Murphy.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I don't disagree with any of the points here.  And it was fine to use Ohtani as a parallel to Murphy, because both would cost an arm and a leg.  Shortstop Cruz, ditto.

I was pushing back on the notion that Murphy was an overpay versus Ohtani.  3 years versus 1, up-the-middle versus DH when he bats - just not a useful comp.  (Ohtani as a pitcher makes him a unicorn for comparison purposes anyway.)

Ohtani in 2022 would have improved our DH production somewhere around .100 OPS points compared to Arraez/Buxton/Miranda (Sanchez is just a brain fart in that role that I'm not even going to consider him).  Murphy would have improved our catcher OPS by more than that, albeit for fewer games.  You improve overall team OPS any way you can.  Comparing Murphy's bat to an outfielder's is just not relevant; he would have improved our team OPS, pure and simple.

Anyway, I'd love to have Murphy catching or Ohtani pitching and DHing, and it's not gonna happen, so there we are.

Understood and I'm not in full argument.

However... in partial argument.

I'd say the gain from .750 to .850 over more games is a greater addition compared to .650 to .750 in less games. Because of the more games/less games thing and because you are making an addition to the theoretical top of the order compared the theoretical middle. 

More importantly though. In the context of our current Twins, comparing Murphy to an outfielder's bat is absolutely relevant since we have outfielders that would start in RF tomorrow that are producing at the plate similar to Jeffers.   

So it isn't a .100 point jump in the OF. It's a 200 point jump in the OF for the same price of a .100 point jump at catcher so I''ll get the bigger bat and improvement plus I'll keep my young catcher who hits like most catchers do across the league and hope that he grows with the bat until he is valued at 51 in baseballtradevalues and then I trade him for a package like the A's will receive for Murphy. 

Your serve. 15 - Love   ?

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd say the gain from .750 to .850 over more games is a greater addition compared to .650 to .750 in less games.

Not less games.  More games.  Probably twice as many.  You're overlooking the 3 years of team control for Murphy versus 1 year if you trade for Ohtani.  3x100 versus 150ish.  If you trade prospect assets for Murphy, you have starting Catcher covered for 3 years.  If you trade those assets for Ohtani then DH is covered but you need to work some kind of similar magic in years 2 and 3 only without those assets this time.  Ohtani would be the "all-in for 2023" trade.

Comparable in trade value, but not comparable in the purpose.

We're not acquiring either, so it's really pretty moot.

 

[Riverbrian]

11 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Not less games.  More games.  Probably twice as many.  You're overlooking the 3 years of team control for Murphy versus 1 year if you trade for Ohtani.  3x100 versus 150ish.  If you trade prospect assets for Murphy, you have starting Catcher covered for 3 years.  If you trade those assets for Ohtani then DH is covered but you need to work some kind of similar magic in years 2 and 3 only without those assets this time.  Ohtani would be the "all-in for 2023" trade.

Comparable in trade value, but not comparable in the purpose.

We're not acquiring either, so it's really pretty moot.

 

I'm sorry... I moved off of the big name shock value Ohtani.

I'm on to random theoretical outfielder (let's call him John Ashbury) who has an .850 OPS and 51 median value. 

Or Let's call him Bryan Reynolds... Let's make him an OF with Pittsburgh. 

Fault - Your Serve - 15 Love

  

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm sorry... I moved off of the big name shock value Ohtani.

I'm on to random theoretical outfielder (let's call him John Ashbury) who has an .850 OPS and 51 median value. 

Or Let's call him Bryan Reynolds... Let's make him an OF with Pittsburgh. 

Fault - Your Serve - 15 Love

  

That first player you named is nowhere near worth it.  ? Let's go with Reynolds.  He's an interesting comp to Murphy.  3 years of team control.  Up the middle defense.  Murphy got a Gold Glove in 2021, while I'm not sure Reynold's defense is as well regarded but a centerfielder isn't going to be a clown.   (BTW speaking of not being a clown in CF I hope you enjoyed Chas McCormick's catch in the 9th last night, replay isn't ever going to do it justice compared to the drama of seeing it unfold in realtime.)

Reynolds is an even more expensive trade option than Murphy, according to that trade simulator site.  59.9 to 51.3.  About 16% higher.  That's a whole additional good prospect more, like Josh Winder or Edouard Julien as the sweetener.

Reynolds in the last two years has 256 starts in CF.  Murphy has 220 starts at Catcher in that same span.  About 16% difference.  Both have 35 starts as DH (or DH and LF about equally in the case of Reynolds) in those two years.

I think you're suggesting about an equal increment of offensive value for each of them, compared to their positional peers, based on your post a couple back, unless you've "moved off" of that too.

So I'm not seeing a big "inflation" of value for the catcher that you alluded to earlier; two similar guys in some ways, with a 16% discount for fewer starts at their respective prime positions.  I'm only guessing as to what your question is, at this point, though.

[TopGunn#22]

Nice article and discussion.  However, as good as Murphy is, he's just too expensive in trade capital.  You could get get 80% of Murphy with someone like Danny Jansen at a much lower cost.  Jeffers is a career backup.  I've seen enough and to me, he's not a starter.  On the farm, the cupboard is bare for any help in the next two years.  SS and #1 SP are bigger priorities, but a better catching option isn't far behind.  An upgrade at catcher is needed and probably needs to come via a trade.  

[tony&rodney]

Sean Murphy seems like a reach. BTV would cope with Larnach, Ober, and Miller for Murphy, but the A's and Twins might not agree. Perhaps Danny Jansen would be a conversation piece. What does Toronto want in return? A catcher worth some thought is Christian Vasquez and maybe he is open to 2/$18M deal. Omar Narvaez may be less costly but he looked to be in decline. This is where those talent evaluators earn their paycheck. 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

That first player you named is nowhere near worth it.  ? Let's go with Reynolds.  He's an interesting comp to Murphy.  3 years of team control.  Up the middle defense.  Murphy got a Gold Glove in 2021, while I'm not sure Reynold's defense is as well regarded but a centerfielder isn't going to be a clown.   (BTW speaking of not being a clown in CF I hope you enjoyed Chas McCormick's catch in the 9th last night, replay isn't ever going to do it justice compared to the drama of seeing it unfold in realtime.)

Reynolds is an even more expensive trade option than Murphy, according to that trade simulator site.  59.9 to 51.3.  About 16% higher.  That's a whole additional good prospect more, like Josh Winder or Edouard Julien as the sweetener.

Reynolds in the last two years has 256 starts in CF.  Murphy has 220 starts at Catcher in that same span.  About 16% difference.  Both have 35 starts as DH (or DH and LF about equally in the case of Reynolds) in those two years.

I think you're suggesting about an equal increment of offensive value for each of them, compared to their positional peers, based on your post a couple back, unless you've "moved off" of that too.

So I'm not seeing a big "inflation" of value for the catcher that you alluded to earlier; two similar guys in some ways, with a 16% discount for fewer starts at their respective prime positions.  I'm only guessing as to what your question is, at this point, though.

Chas McCormick... 21st round draft pick... reached the pinnacle of 21st ranked Astros prospect in 2020. Keith Law never talked about him. Just another of my poster boys for the value of opportunity and letting players playing good keep playing and letting players decide who plays by actual play.  Making the catch in front of and against his home town team. His son is named Rolen after Scott Rolen.  

Back to Bryan Reynolds. Yeah he costs a little more... but the point is and you agree... they are both ridiculously expensive so a decent comp because the years of control match. 

If I'm spending that Prospect Capitol on a single player. If I'm draining the farm for a single player. I'll take Reynolds over Murphy. But all in all, you and I are not draining the farm for either player. Not many teams these days will drain the farm for any single player and perhaps that's why both are still in Pittsburgh and Oakland. 

[ashbury]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Chas McCormick... 21st round draft pick... reached the pinnacle of 21st ranked Astros prospect in 2020. Keith Law never talked about him.

And now he gets to be mentioned in the same breath with Willie Mays, forever.  Nice outcome.