Will the Twins Front Office Ever Pay a Starting Pitcher?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have a need for starting pitching entering the 2023 Major League Baseball season. If that feels like an evergreen statement, it’s because it is, but basically for every organization across the sport. For Minnesota, however, they need a frontline arm and they’ve never paid for one before.

 

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

With Kenta Maeda returning to Rocco Baldelli’s starting rotation early next season, Minnesota should have a solid trio including former Cincinnati Reds, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. They should get Chris Paddack back late in the summer, but will have 2022 Opening Day starter Joe Ryan until then. If Minnesota adds, and they need to, it must be an impact arm.

We saw plenty of depth emerge with Minnesota blowing through a franchise-record 38 pitchers this season. Bailey Ober and Josh Winder showed up as expected. Cole Sands had his ups and downs, but Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson emerged maybe more quickly than assumed. There are guys that have experience and will be called upon. Knowing the window paired with youth is now, the best arms available should be on the table.

Unfortunately, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have never shown a willingness to spend on starting pitching.

Truthfully, Minnesota’s current front office has never spent on pitching at all. They’ve opted for reclamation projects in the bullpen, and largely looked to cut corners relying on coaching to get the best from those acquired. Lance Lynn begrudgingly agreed to a one-year deal in Minnesota following a standoff prior to his decision in 2018, and that was only for $12 million. The most this front office has ever paid in a single season was Jake Odorizzi during 2020, which was a $17.8 million qualifying offer that was worth less than half of the money due to a truncated season.

In short, Falvey and Levine’s greatest expense for a pitcher on a deal they negotiated was Addison Reed’s $16.75 million in 2018. He owned a 4.50 ERA across 56 innings and never pitched again after his first season with the Twins.

Maybe it’s that signing where the front office soured on paying for pitching. Maybe they didn’t like that Lynn clearly exhibited not wanting to be here after signing late in spring training. Perhaps it’s just been bad luck missing out on arms like Yu Darvish, Zack Wheeler, and Charlie Morton. Whatever it is, if paying for pitching isn’t ever going to happen, what are we doing here?

Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline akin to what he was known for with Cleveland. The depth has started to rear its head, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Twins prospect currently projected to be a Number One starter. That’s where the focus has to be, and thus far dollars haven't been allocated for one.

Falvey and Levine have taken swings on the trade market when looking to foot the bill. Gray has the chops to be a frontline starter (and he has been in the past), and development (and now health) from Mahle could put him there as well. Maybe this duo sees another arm they like enough to trade for, and acquire dollars on the payroll rather than negotiating it themselves. Either way, it is worth wondering if a big payday for a starter will ever come under this regime.

Terry Ryan’s $54 million pact with Ervin Santana is still looking to be topped, and now seems as good of a time as ever.

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[Blyleven2011]

Ted your always a busy man ...

The twins will never spend on a true ace , stud , bulldog until we have an owner that has the desire to win and go for it ,,, 

To Bring a championship to the state of Minnesota they have to have that ace , stud , bulldog pitcher  , profit is the current economics of the owner  , and by making a profit  the twins will be competitive and not CONTENDERS ...

see blackjack Morris in 1991 as an example  , give him the ball and try and take it out of his hands ...

I wish we had more pitchers like Jack in today's game  ....

[jun]

I really think Twins should pay to get a deep and talented bullpen that has at least 3 effective long relievers instead.

[old nurse]

They tried hard for Darvish. For every Scherzer that continues on pitching well for a new team there seems to be the Zimmermans, Corbins and Mad Bum who diminish. The successes are easily remembered, the failures not so much 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

The only way that they will pay for an ace is if they develop one who stays healthy and that they have confidence in.  Barrieos fit the healthy card but I do not think that they felt he could ever achieve ace status.

The item holding them back from acquiring a FA ace is length of contract.  This is primarily how they lost out on Darvish, Wheeler and Morton as they were competitive on AAV.  I get their logic to a degree as once an ace hits FA much of their value has already been provided to their previous team and with the length and cost of these long term contracts the risk is just too high for this FO and owner.

The only way they get a true ace is to develop a healthy one and sign them long-term so the odds are not real high that they ever get a true ace.

[Trov]

I have said all along, there is no guarantee that paying big for a pitcher in FA will equal post season success.  First, if you pay huge for one pitcher, then you put all your eggs into that one basket, so to speak.  If they have a bad start and lose you can call your post season basically over, because you were counting on that one win and hoping the second or third guy to get lucky.  

Yes, some teams have won that way, Giants in the past have done it, but other teams have failed with that approach too, like the Twins.  Not that we paid big for a single guy, but look at Santana in his prime with us, His only post season games, he was 1-2 in starts the team wining 2 of the 5 games he started.  He was the best in the game over that time basically, but we did not get it done with him. 

Look at Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw, 3 HOF pitchers.  Scherzer has been the only one of the 3 with a lot of post season success over his career.  His post season numbers worse than his career numbers, which is not super surprising, but take a look at this year, he was dominate all year, only to have 2 bad starts out of 3 this year.  His team won the first start with a walk off come from behind HR in 9th, and they just lost the WS game he started.  In games he has started team is 18-15 with a huge run in 2017 winning 4 of 5 games started.  

Scherzer, who overall has had some great games in post season, outside of 2019, where his team won all 5 games he started, his teams record is 4-13, so if you include the one great year it is 9-13.  His bullpen time is about equal good and bad.  

Kershaw has been a big mix as well.  In games he started the team is 18-15, which is not bad, but he has never had a dominate run in any post season.  

My point is, even with the HOF guys, having amazing regular seasons, there is no saying they will dominate in the playoffs.  Personally, I would rather have depth in the rotation with 4 above average guys, than one single huge guy and fill in the rest. 

Yes, if we can go out an pay for a guy that will be great, it will help, but very few high paid guys go out and live up to their contracts if you look at the percentage of big deals to pitchers over the years.  It is a huge gamble to pay big for a FA starter. 

[TopGunn#22]

Ted, this is the conundrum of the Twins FO.  They were brought in to develop a pitching pipeline, but what happens to that plan when season after season after season the young pitchers suffer injuries that stunt their development ?  Well, you go out and get guys like Mahle and Gray.

I see where "jun" is coming from about getting 3 effective long relievers but I would argue they have them already.  Winder, Varland and Maeda should fill those roles.  It's the perfect way to ease Maeda back after TJ surgery and I like putting young guns like Winder and Varland in those roles.  Sometimes they would be high leverage, sometimes low but that's the role I'd season those guys up with.  Ober as well if he's not already in the rotation.

The Twins may not have guys like Mahle and Maeda ready to be starters at the opening bell next season.  That's why this FO needs to "evolve" their strategy and either sign a Rodon or Senga, OR, trade for someone like a Pablo Lopez or  Brandon Woodruff.  Woodruff would cost a LOT, but he would be the clear #1 and someone you could hand the ball to in a playoff series opening game and have a solid expectation for a win (and wouldn't a playoff win be a GOOD thing Twins fans)??

The cost for Woodruff was floated in an earlier post by someone.  It included names like Brooks Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Balazovic, Winder, not sure if Larnach or Kepler were mentioned.  The Brewers would need a pitcher coming back as well as some young talent.  Maybe a LH hitting outfielder ?  Let's dig into this:

Trade #1

Twins get Woodruff  37.80     

Brewers get  Ober 19.5, Polanco 15.8 (would move to 3B) and Cavaco 2.4 = 37.70

Trade #2  

Twins get Woodruff 37.80

Brewers get Ober  19.5, Winder 8.3 and Celestino 11.2 = 39.00

There really isn't anybody else on the Brewers I would go for.  Everyone they have is either REALLY expensive or a very low value.  BTV only gives Kirilloff a .70 rating.  Better off keeping him.  Brooks Lee is 38.9 so a one for one swap could happen, but the Twins shouldn't do it.  Lewis still has 20.4 value but is also someone the Twins wouldn't part with.  Trade #2 is probably better for the Brewers because there is uncertainty moving Polanco to 3B (although they would LOVE his bat).  With Wong at 2B and Adames at SS a move would be necessary unless Polanco backed up both and DH'd.

Larnach's value is 30.4 so him and Winder could easily get it done and I'd do that trade to add a Stud Bulldog like Woodruff at the top of my rotation.  Remember, trading Larnach still leaves the Twins with Kirilloff, Kepler and Wallner.  Someone there is expendable and with Kirilloff's value plummeting he's not going anywhere.  

[Doctor Gast]

1st I think you are putting too much trust in Maeda, he has never been a work horse & he's just coming back from a 2yr hiatus of recuperating from surgery. It'll be a while where he would be able to pitch 5 quality innings. I don't expect much of anything from Paddack when he returns. Which strengthens your case, that under this present philosophy of no long relief, then we do need another SP above the Gray Standard.

But getting one from FA, I seriously doubt from this FO. And I don't blame them. 

[DocBauer]

What's so frustrating is the FO has $50M to spend, and maybe more depending on the futures of Kepler and Urshela. Gausman and Ray each received deals last offseason for 5yrs and about $105-110M total. (Pretty sure I have those numbers right.)

Rodon is approximately the same age, has just as good of stuff, can be a difference maker, and should cost relatively the same. We aren't talking an 8yr and $200M plus. Does anyone really think 5yrs and $100-ish M is going to destroy future Twins payrolls? 

Risk? Yes. But tell me any SP you could trade for or sign and GUARANTEE me he's not going to have an injury at some point?

Right now, with a little additional roster maneuvering and guys, the Twibs could sign/re-sign a TOP SS, (hint hint), sign Rodon, and still have a few $M left over for a co-catcher, BP arm and maybe a RH OF. 

As I said in another similar OP, the books are very clean and at least a little additional $ comes off next year. So if not NOW, then WHEN?

 

[Blyleven2011]

20 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

What's so frustrating is the FO has $50M to spend, and maybe more depending on the futures of Kepler and Urshela. Gausman and Ray each received deals last offseason for 5yrs and about $105-110M total. (Pretty sure I have those numbers right.)

Rodon is approximately the same age, has just as good of stuff, can be a difference maker, and should cost relatively the same. We aren't talking an 8yr and $200M plus. Does anyone really think 5yrs and $100-ish M is going to destroy future Twins payrolls? 

Risk? Yes. But tell me any SP you could trade for or sign and GUARANTEE me he's not going to have an injury at some point?

Right now, with a little additional roster maneuvering and guys, the Twibs could sign/re-sign a TOP SS, (hint hint), sign Rodon, and still have a few $M left over for a co-catcher, BP arm and maybe a RH OF. 

As I said in another similar OP, the books are very clean and at least a little additional $ comes off next year. So if not NOW, then WHEN?

 

I wish the FO was more proactive  in free agency  ,,,

FO says its risky in free agency  and cost alot of money ,  TRUE ...

But trading is expensive also for players that  have come to us with injury problem and it's just as costly Iwhen you deplete your prospects  for these  injured players ...

FO has not made alot of savvy trades , they should  change and try the free agent market   once again  ,

Their first off season they went and signed in free agency  , Castro catcher  , bullpen ,  Reed and a lefthander relief pitcher with a last name starting with a D , since that first year  they haven't splurged for good quality free agents  ...

as the twins fans say , the FO likes to go dumpster diving  , well the FO is stinking up the place with the bad trades and the reclamation  players ...

[Parfigliano]

I dont see the team ever dropping stacks of cash Scherzer style. 

1)  Ownership will not agree so its DOA.

2)  With the present game plan to limit starters to 5-6 innings no matter how good a start is going it would be a foolish waste of money.

Better to develop in house starters and sign hopefully above average relief arms.

[HerbieFan]

With Falvey/Baldellilama/Analytics-driven insistence on not having pitchers face a lineup a 3rd time I really don't think they're going to spend on SP.  Do we really want them to if he's only allowed to go 5 innings?  And we've seen the blueprint on a bullpen...we may not like it, but they won't spend there either.  So...what do I think they do?  I have absolutely no clue.  Personally, I'm hoping (foolishly) for Correa.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Ted your always a busy man ...

The twins will never spend on a true ace , stud , bulldog until we have an owner that has the desire to win and go for it ,,, 

To Bring a championship to the state of Minnesota they have to have that ace , stud , bulldog pitcher  , profit is the current economics of the owner  , and by making a profit  the twins will be competitive and not CONTENDERS ...

see blackjack Morris in 1991 as an example  , give him the ball and try and take it out of his hands ...

I wish we had more pitchers like Jack in today's game  ....

Morris is the exact opposite of the big time contract being discussed.  He signed for one year, kind of a make good deal to rebuild his value, and indeed departed after walking off the mound in Game Seven, to a team with a higher bid. 

Imagine if Archer or Bundy had bounced back to stardom.  This Twins FO already is signing Jack Morris types of contracts.  Those just aren't panning out.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

What's so frustrating is the FO has $50M to spend, and maybe more depending on the futures of Kepler and Urshela. Gausman and Ray each received deals last offseason for 5yrs and about $105-110M total. (Pretty sure I have those numbers right.)

Rodon is approximately the same age, has just as good of stuff, can be a difference maker, and should cost relatively the same. We aren't talking an 8yr and $200M plus. Does anyone really think 5yrs and $100-ish M is going to destroy future Twins payrolls? 

Risk? Yes. But tell me any SP you could trade for or sign and GUARANTEE me he's not going to have an injury at some point?

My impression is of Rodón being at a similar level to Ray or Gausman, and they were mentioned often in the same bucket when they were free agents last offseason. But I've seen speculation in more than one place (including in the MLBTR Twins offseason outlook, published today) that he will sign for significantly more than the other guys did last year.

I don't really get the reason for those predictions. I do agree with you that Rodón for 4-5 years at $21-24 million is more than palatable.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

From the article:
"Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline akin to what he was known for with Cleveland. The depth has started to rear its head, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Twins prospect currently projected to be a Number One starter. That’s where the focus has to be, and thus far dollars haven't been allocated for one."

Wasn't part of the reputation of Cleveland's pitching pipeline that they could take guys who weren't evaluated as possible aces as prospects, and turn them into good pitchers in the major leagues?

Maybe I remember Bieber popping up late in his time in the minors, and getting some potential-number-1 hype. But did their other recently developed guys like McKenzie ever get that kind of projection? And looking farther back, didn't guys like Kluber and Carrasco kinda just keep getting better in the majors?

Not to split hairs about an article that's a solid summary of where the team's pitching stands. But it seems like a big part of Cleveland's success that other teams wanted to emulate came from getting high-percentile outcomes from guys who "only" projected as #2-4 starters. And that's also something the Twins really could stand to get better at! -- but something that at least seems feasible with the current crop of arms.

 

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Morris is the exact opposite of the big time contract being discussed.  He signed for one year, kind of a make good deal to rebuild his value, and indeed departed after walking off the mound in Game Seven, to a team with a higher bid. 

Imagine if Archer or Bundy had bounced back to stardom.  This Twins FO already is signing Jack Morris types of contracts.  Those just aren't panning out.

You missed my point on Morris    yes he signed only for a year and bolted ..

My point is I would like more pitchers like Morris that had talent and wanted to finish what he started , he wasn't afraid to speak out ...

It seldom happens anymore , the mental bulldog approach  , the mad Hungarian  ,  berenger ( senior smoke Jr. ) and more from that era ...

Today how many , Verlander,  scherzer that would emulate a bulldog like Morris  , Castillo  maybe  or the Miami pitcher alacantra ...

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it ...

[Vanimal46]

Falvey and Levine weren’t hired to hand out 9 figure contracts to free agent starting pitchers. Nor do I want them to. In the spirit of Halloween, there’s a cemetery full of horrible FA SP investments in the last decade. That will sink a team like the Twins. 

[Danchat]

No, it's not bad luck that the Twins didn't land Darvish or Wheeler. On both fronts it was reported that the Twins' best offers were $20M shy of what they got with the years being the same. Their MO is to sign one year deals and more recently trade for starters, so I'd expect more of that in 2023.

[ashbury]

16 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

You missed my point on Morris  

We all want pitchers like Morris.  It was very exciting to get him, and even more exciting how it panned out.  You didn't address my point.  How do you propose to get another Morris, the way we got him?  Usually what you get that way is another Archer or Bundy or Shoemaker.

[EGFTShaw]

On 10/29/2022 at 12:22 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

Ted, this is the conundrum of the Twins FO.  They were brought in to develop a pitching pipeline, but what happens to that plan when season after season after season the young pitchers suffer injuries that stunt their development ?  Well, you go out and get guys like Mahle and Gray.

I see where "jun" is coming from about getting 3 effective long relievers but I would argue they have them already.  Winder, Varland and Maeda should fill those roles.  It's the perfect way to ease Maeda back after TJ surgery and I like putting young guns like Winder and Varland in those roles.  Sometimes they would be high leverage, sometimes low but that's the role I'd season those guys up with.  Ober as well if he's not already in the rotation.

The Twins may not have guys like Mahle and Maeda ready to be starters at the opening bell next season.  That's why this FO needs to "evolve" their strategy and either sign a Rodon or Senga, OR, trade for someone like a Pablo Lopez or  Brandon Woodruff.  Woodruff would cost a LOT, but he would be the clear #1 and someone you could hand the ball to in a playoff series opening game and have a solid expectation for a win (and wouldn't a playoff win be a GOOD thing Twins fans)??

The cost for Woodruff was floated in an earlier post by someone.  It included names like Brooks Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Balazovic, Winder, not sure if Larnach or Kepler were mentioned.  The Brewers would need a pitcher coming back as well as some young talent.  Maybe a LH hitting outfielder ?  Let's dig into this:

Trade #1

Twins get Woodruff  37.80     

Brewers get  Ober 19.5, Polanco 15.8 (would move to 3B) and Cavaco 2.4 = 37.70

Trade #2  

Twins get Woodruff 37.80

Brewers get Ober  19.5, Winder 8.3 and Celestino 11.2 = 39.00

There really isn't anybody else on the Brewers I would go for.  Everyone they have is either REALLY expensive or a very low value.  BTV only gives Kirilloff a .70 rating.  Better off keeping him.  Brooks Lee is 38.9 so a one for one swap could happen, but the Twins shouldn't do it.  Lewis still has 20.4 value but is also someone the Twins wouldn't part with.  Trade #2 is probably better for the Brewers because there is uncertainty moving Polanco to 3B (although they would LOVE his bat).  With Wong at 2B and Adames at SS a move would be necessary unless Polanco backed up both and DH'd.

Larnach's value is 30.4 so him and Winder could easily get it done and I'd do that trade to add a Stud Bulldog like Woodruff at the top of my rotation.  Remember, trading Larnach still leaves the Twins with Kirilloff, Kepler and Wallner.  Someone there is expendable and with Kirilloff's value plummeting he's not going anywhere.  

I like Ober, a lot.  Like Ryan I feel there is more there.

But I would trade him for Woodruff.  Just like I like the Perry pick in the draft, but 100% in trading him for Gray.  Proven quantity vs potential.

I like our pitching options, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, Ober at the moment.  But you are always one odd injury to a pitcher away from disaster.

AND most importantly, none of these have proven that they are the shutdown type of guy you want as your #1.  The guy who can stop a losing streak.  The guy you want out there in Game 1 of a playoff.

Maeda showed some of this, but one shortened season is not proven.

I think Ryan may get there as he has the right mentality.  Needs a killer pitch like change-up like Johan.

AND I really do not buy into this 5-6 inning/twice through order stuff for my Ace.  He needs to be able to 7+ when he is rolling in the proper context of pitch counts.

[Major League Ready]

On 10/29/2022 at 7:05 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Falvey and Levine weren’t hired to hand out 9 figure contracts to free agent starting pitchers. Nor do I want them to. In the spirit of Halloween, there’s a cemetery full of horrible FA SP investments in the last decade. That will sink a team like the Twins. 

So, what you are saying is the question is not will they but should they?  Having collected the data on every 5 year or greater contract, it's easy to understand your point and I definitely agree in general.  However, I would not say "never ever".   It can make sense for a mid market team like the twins if they develop a roster full of productive players from within.  They can then use that financial flexibility we hear mentioned to secure a top of the rotation free agent SP.  Obviously, they still have to choose wisely (like Indiana Jones) because they fail more than they succeed.  The right guy might not exist this year.  I was hoping Musgrove would be available until I realized San Diego was his home market.

I have that at $130M if they added Rodon while adding Hanigar, resigning Sanchez and keeping Urshela.  Next year Urshela / Gray and Mahle roll off.  That leaves us at about $100M with Rodon / Ryan / Ober and we would need to come up with 2 SPs between Varland / SWR / Paddack.  Perhaps Henriguez or Sands step up or they could go get a Bundy type for the 5th spot.  That leaves them some room to extend a couple guys and keep this going for several years.  They would also have Kepler rolling off in 24 or perhaps he is traded this year.  They are positioned well.  Now, they need to execute some tweaks in the roster construction.

This is a long way of saying you hit this one on the head.  We should not just assume signing a big name free agent pitcher is the best way to build a winner.  I remember some people being mad we did not get Bumgardner.  It's too soon to tell just how good a decision it was to not give Berrios a 7 year deal but that decision and trade are looking very good at the moment.

[Riverbrian]

I'll continue to "waste my summer praying in vain... that a savior will rise from these streets". 

Until then I will "Show a little faith, there's magic in the night".

"You ain't a beauty but hey you're alright... and that's alright with me". 

Gotta listen to the Springer... Even if he plays for the Blue Jays. 

These two lanes will take us anywhere. 

 

[Seansy]

It is Rodon or bust for me to acquire that #1 starter for next year. I wouldn't shortchange how good of a year Gray had for the Twins this year either though. Mahle could also be good if healthy too. Ideally, the sign Rodon and can still extend Gray and Mahle to decent contracts for the following years.