Record Starting Contract on the Twins Docket Next?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have needed starting pitching virtually since the beginning of time. It’s been a refrain muttered by fans at least since Target Field opened its doors, and the Pohlad family opening up the pocketbook to make it happen has been a desire. With other free agent records having fallen, is this the time for the next one?

 

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over as the heads of Minnesota’s front office back in the fall of 2016. During their tenure, the two most notable free agent signings have been hitters. Josh Donaldson’s $100 million deal was the largest given to a free agent in franchise history, and Carlos Correa’s $35.1 million average annual value was the highest ever paid in a season to an infielder.

On the Donaldson deal, Minnesota opted to part ways with the brash veteran just halfway through the deal. On the Correa pact, the Twins gave out a contract where the star shortstop could leave after just one season looking for the payday that never came a year ago. To date, the club has never truly spent substantially on a starting pitcher.

There's a good reason that a deal hasn’t been reached, and it’s probably not for lack of trying. This front office targeted Zack Wheeler, Yu Darvish, and Charlie Morton in recent seasons. Anything offered to them would’ve been in rarified air for this franchise. In those scenarios though, the Twins were fighting against the lack of market or weather, and probably were not the highest offer.

Finding an ace in free agency is a crapshoot. You’re dealing with an arm that was ultimately passed on by their former club, and they’ve probably been through a previous extension to this point. Realistically, 28-year-old pitchers that could be an ace for any team in baseball simply don’t show up in free agency. It’s a dice roll to decide if the caution flags are worth ignoring to bring in the new star.

This offseason represents a familiar landscape. Justin Verlander is an aging superstar that probably wants continuity. Jacob deGrom has had injuries and is 34. Clayton Kershaw has a declining back and is also the same age as the Mets star. The cream of the most likely crop is probably limited to Chris Sale, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Rodon, and Mike Clevinger.

The former White Sox ace (Sale) has thrown just 48 1/3 innings since 2019. He’s great, but hasn’t been healthy, wore out his welcome in Boston, and isn’t young. Rodon put up a healthy season with the Giants, but injuries have plagued him in the past. Clevinger wasn’t good in 2022 and hasn’t been healthy for years either. That leaves Bassitt, who may lack the top tier to be worthy of a substantial price tag. No matter what though, available pitching with this ceiling is going to get paid.

Terry Ryan spent more handsomely on starting pitching than Falvey and Levine have to this point. The $54 million Minnesota gave to Ervin Santana back in 2014 still is significantly more than anything we’ve seen handed out in recent seasons. Knowing they need to add at the top of the rotation, it will be interesting to see how Minnesota’s front office opts for a step forward at a position they’ve yet to take one.

With the landscape at starting pitcher being what it is, are you ready for the Twins to spend big now? If so, what name are you wanting them all in on?

View full article

[AceWrigley]

Rodon.

[Cris E]

Rodon or Bassitt, but nothing crazy. Put out a fair offer for 3+1 at $20m to Bassitt or 4+1 at $25m to Rodon and see if they get accepted.  Someone may offer more money and more years, but those are solid offers to established guys. I don't want to be the team paying $27m for an age 39 season spent in rehab.

[Rosterman]

Spend the money. You got it. Rodon.

 

[jmlease1]

DeGrom is a fascinating case. He's opting out after any injury season, that followed another injury season. What is he looking for and what does he expect? 

It's possible he wants 5+ years, but it's harder to believe that teams would be lining up to give him the length, considering he hasn't pitched a full season in three years (pandemic year, injured, injured). So, maybe he's expecting to get offers that are in the 2-4 year range. So presume he's expecting at least a 3 year deal?

He opted out from a deal that would pay him $32.5M in 2023, so clearly he expects to get paid an AAV above that figure. Does the number start at $35M or $40M?

Here's the thing to still like about deGrom, despite the injuries from the last 2 seasons. He's never been bad his entire MLB career. His worst MLB season from an on-field performance standpoint was 2017, and he still had an ERA+ of 117. His next worst season was 2022 (when he was battling injuries) and he still had an ERA+ of 126...which was better than any other Twins starter. Even in an injury season, he's still great.

Would you do 3 years/$120M for deGrom? I have to admit...I find that to be very interesting. There's significant risk involved in it, but there's no doubt that deGrom is an ace. A rotation of deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Ryan and Ober is damn good. We have enough depth to manage missed time or try to do some creative things to have a deGrom ready in Sept (3 weeks on the IL in June just to rest from a "sore shoulder"? DNP - Old?) but there's no question that it's a big risk-reward play.

I'm on the record that I'd prefer the Twins drop a big number on Correa and let us stop worrying about SS. But if that isn't going to happen (Giants throw 10 years and $400M at him, for example), then this is an idea that I find intriguing.

This is the bummer about being a smaller market team, though. Teams like LA, NYY, NYM, Cubs, et al have a much easier time accepting this kind of risk, because they can buy their way out of it. 25% of the payroll being dead money to a player that's hurt crushes a team like the Twins. For the Yankees a) it's only 15%, and b) they can tip up the payroll incrementally, buy out of it, and keep rolling. 

[Doctor Gast]

Big name FAs are at best a crapshoot. FAs are rated by their stats the prior year, what are the odds that they are going to have better years with you? Not very good, the odds are that they'll have worse years, the degree of worse will vary. Looking at only stats you'll never come out ahead. So you have to look beyond stats to underlying conditions.

Debating w/ Nash Walker last off season, I ceded to him that Rodon would be a good FA target. CWS old school manager La Russa wanted his SPs to go as deep as possible & Rodon couldn't go as deep as he wanted w/o injury & ineffectiveness (IMO that's why CWS let him go). Even w/ the injury risk, I ceded that if Rodon was dialed back & managed right, he be a good fit for MN. Now Rodon will be expensive with many bidding on him.

[LA VIkes Fan]

48 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Rodon or Bassitt, but nothing crazy. Put out a fair offer for 3+1 at $20m to Bassitt or 4+1 at $25m to Rodon and see if they get accepted.  Someone may offer more money and more years, but those are solid offers to established guys. I don't want to be the team paying $27m for an age 39 season spent in rehab.

I like this, except I think both guys will get more from somebody else. I would be fine with making these offers and moving on if not accepted. I think the more likely route is a trade for someone like Lopez in Miami or Merrill Kelly in Arizona. Interestingly, both are roughly .500/high 3s ERA pitchers in their careers although both were good last year. There isn't a lot out there that beats that Sonny Gray threshold.

Bottom line, it seems to me very unlikely that the Twins are going to sign a high end SP, and a 50/50 shot at best that they will trade for one. I expect us to go into 2023 with the same group.     

[mikelink45]

All of these options are either old and ready to diminish in quality or they are injury prone.  Let's start working on developing our own Ace.  Give one of these a ridiculous one year contract like we did to Correa and see how the team shapes up. 

[Badgolfer34]

I hope they make every effort to bring  Correa back. Pitching, I hope they can get a closer, the guys penciled in to start are mostly number 3 or 4 . But they can win the division with that , if they have a closer. Move Kepler and Polonco and get a catcher and go get a reliever in FA

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I am just going to copy and paste my responses from the previous two (excuse me, 3) articles about the Twins spending on SP...

[gman]

I would focus on locking up our current core of starters. Keep the security for the next 3 years in knowing that we at least have 5-8 major league starters available without going to the junk pile.  Thats better then we've done in 30 years. Hopefully 1-2 starters per year will be developed out of the minors. When one of our minor league starters pushes someone out, then trade the veteran.

[chpettit19]

deGrom on a low years, high AAV deal is intriguing. He's the best pitcher on the planet when healthy. I wouldn't be super excited to add another high injury risk to the roster, but at least this one has "best in baseball" upside. Otherwise, it's Rodon or Bassitt. I'd be happy with either one, even if Rodon has injury risk and Bassitt isn't quite a true #1 in my eyes.

[CRF]

There is a less than zero chance that DeGrom comes here. Ain't...gonna...happen. Try to get Rodon, or Bassitt...and even those two guys would be highly unlikely. I'm sure there are other pitchers out there that would be a pretty good fit here. Please, just make sure to get rid of Archer and Bundy!!!

[Riverbrian]

Another Starter Pitcher Article. 

In my opinion... We need a big hitting OF'er more. 

If we spend that kind of money. Might as well go for Judge. 

[Beast]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

DeGrom is a fascinating case. He's opting out after any injury season, that followed another injury season. What is he looking for and what does he expect? 

It's possible he wants 5+ years, but it's harder to believe that teams would be lining up to give him the length, considering he hasn't pitched a full season in three years (pandemic year, injured, injured). So, maybe he's expecting to get offers that are in the 2-4 year range. So presume he's expecting at least a 3 year deal?

He opted out from a deal that would pay him $32.5M in 2023, so clearly he expects to get paid an AAV above that figure. Does the number start at $35M or $40M?

Here's the thing to still like about deGrom, despite the injuries from the last 2 seasons. He's never been bad his entire MLB career. His worst MLB season from an on-field performance standpoint was 2017, and he still had an ERA+ of 117. His next worst season was 2022 (when he was battling injuries) and he still had an ERA+ of 126...which was better than any other Twins starter. Even in an injury season, he's still great.

Would you do 3 years/$120M for deGrom? I have to admit...I find that to be very interesting. There's significant risk involved in it, but there's no doubt that deGrom is an ace. A rotation of deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Ryan and Ober is damn good. We have enough depth to manage missed time or try to do some creative things to have a deGrom ready in Sept (3 weeks on the IL in June just to rest from a "sore shoulder"? DNP - Old?) but there's no question that it's a big risk-reward play.

I'm on the record that I'd prefer the Twins drop a big number on Correa and let us stop worrying about SS. But if that isn't going to happen (Giants throw 10 years and $400M at him, for example), then this is an idea that I find intriguing.

This is the bummer about being a smaller market team, though. Teams like LA, NYY, NYM, Cubs, et al have a much easier time accepting this kind of risk, because they can buy their way out of it. 25% of the payroll being dead money to a player that's hurt crushes a team like the Twins. For the Yankees a) it's only 15%, and b) they can tip up the payroll incrementally, buy out of it, and keep rolling. 

There’s a telling misconception in this comment.

How does a contract like that “crush” the Twins?  We’ve been told for our whole lives as Twins fans this is the case.  Where is all the hardware to show for that conservative approach?  All that I see is squandered opportunities and a world record for playoff incompetence.

What “crushes” this franchise is that narrative that been pushed and accepted by a lot of fans here.

Personally, I’d rather see actually  them try and fail than pretend to try and market the hell out of it (which, don’t kid yourself, has been the case).  It’s been lip service.  Desperate attempts to get people in the seats while knowing full well there is no hope.

The Astros have gone and built one of the best dynasties in the history of sports by being aggressive and getting Justin Verlander.

So, I guess my question is, a bad deal crushes what?  What exactly do we have to lose?  We’ve sucked for decades with this approach, but as the definition of insanity states, we keep looking for the same path to different results.  We should be begging for something in this stale, hapless organization to be crushed.

[lukeduke1980]

Twins were 20th in attendance and I expect season ticket interest to be down as inflation lingers.  Hard to imagine any big contracts being handed out by this team.

[Linus]

So our pitching acquisition strategy is: don’t spend money in free agency for elite pitching and don’t spend high draft picks on pitching. And we are confused why we end up with a pile of injury prone # 4 starters. 

[Blyleven2011]

It's risky  with these free agents , and plenty have had injuries  ...

I say take a risk for rodon as he is a lefthander  and probably the best of the bunch if he can stay healthy  ...

[DocBauer]

I don't know what the FO has in mind, much less what they'll actually do. But as I've stated before, we have pretty clean books right now, and just as clean the following year unless we re-sign some guys to extensions: Gray, Mahle, as examples.

If the time isn't right now, when will it be? Rodon, as an example, is probably $25M for 4 or 5 years. There is some risk to be sure, but that's not a $200M plus deal to decimate any franchise. 

IMO, though I like the rotation on paper and the young guys who have reached the ML level, and a couple who have had a cup of coffee so far, there are enough question marks that I just EXPECT someone to be hurt or not ready, etc. And yes, they might dip in to the secondary pool, which offers a handful of interesting options, and go depth vs big move. And that depth piece might be important and pretty good. 

But the team and payroll are set up to make one, good, fairly expensive deal that could pay dividends without having adverse affect in the future. The timing is good if they want to make a move like this.

[Jim wyllie]

Our starting pitching is pretty deep right now with a big group, gray, Ryan, Ober, mahle, winder, Verlander, and unknown amount of innings from maeda.  I'm the minors we have wood Richardson and a hopeful bounce back for canterino and belazovic.  I don't pitching should be a free agency priority right now I would say bringing back Correa should be priority 1 for his on field skills and clubhouse presence.  Then go for lineup upgrades perhaps dh and catcher.  The outfield is already crowded I would start ghe year with buxton Gordon and wallner as the starters with larnach earning playing time and lewis given a spot when he's healthy.

[Game7-91]

Rodon would be nice but cant see him coming here. Ditto DeGrom.  Wonder if Maeda might help them compete for Senga? He's probably getting north of Bassit in AAV, but that should be doable for Twins. Go all in pursuing Montero for BP.

[Karbo]

18 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

DeGrom is a fascinating case. He's opting out after any injury season, that followed another injury season. What is he looking for and what does he expect? 

It's possible he wants 5+ years, but it's harder to believe that teams would be lining up to give him the length, considering he hasn't pitched a full season in three years (pandemic year, injured, injured). So, maybe he's expecting to get offers that are in the 2-4 year range. So presume he's expecting at least a 3 year deal?

He opted out from a deal that would pay him $32.5M in 2023, so clearly he expects to get paid an AAV above that figure. Does the number start at $35M or $40M?

Here's the thing to still like about deGrom, despite the injuries from the last 2 seasons. He's never been bad his entire MLB career. His worst MLB season from an on-field performance standpoint was 2017, and he still had an ERA+ of 117. His next worst season was 2022 (when he was battling injuries) and he still had an ERA+ of 126...which was better than any other Twins starter. Even in an injury season, he's still great.

Would you do 3 years/$120M for deGrom? I have to admit...I find that to be very interesting. There's significant risk involved in it, but there's no doubt that deGrom is an ace. A rotation of deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Ryan and Ober is damn good. We have enough depth to manage missed time or try to do some creative things to have a deGrom ready in Sept (3 weeks on the IL in June just to rest from a "sore shoulder"? DNP - Old?) but there's no question that it's a big risk-reward play.

I'm on the record that I'd prefer the Twins drop a big number on Correa and let us stop worrying about SS. But if that isn't going to happen (Giants throw 10 years and $400M at him, for example), then this is an idea that I find intriguing.

This is the bummer about being a smaller market team, though. Teams like LA, NYY, NYM, Cubs, et al have a much easier time accepting this kind of risk, because they can buy their way out of it. 25% of the payroll being dead money to a player that's hurt crushes a team like the Twins. For the Yankees a) it's only 15%, and b) they can tip up the payroll incrementally, buy out of it, and keep rolling. 

I just can't see paying that much for another injury risk. I would rather break the bank on Correa, or if that can't be worked out look into catcher and RH outfield w/power.

[Karbo]

13 hours ago, CRF said:

There is a less than zero chance that DeGrom comes here. Ain't...gonna...happen. Try to get Rodon, or Bassitt...and even those two guys would be highly unlikely. I'm sure there are other pitchers out there that would be a pretty good fit here. Please, just make sure to get rid of Archer and Bundy!!!

The Twins have had a tough time getting FA pitchers to sign here. They have made a few aggressive offers in the pat. I'm just guessing but the weather is probably the biggest fear. IMO the way the Twins manage the staff probably is also a negative to guys that can pick who to play for. Also, are the Twins even taken seriously as a WS contender any more?

[TopGunn#22]

I still see Senga as the sneaky good move leaving the Twins enough money to add a good BP piece and trade assets to acquire a starting catcher and maybe a RH OF bat.   If they want a workhorse RH pitcher that needs a change of scenery, make a trade with Colorado for German Marquez and get Connor Joe or Randall Grichuk thrown in.  Certainly call Toronto and inquire about Kirk or Jansen for a starting catcher (Moreno will be off limits).  Or, check in with the Braves and see if d'Arnaud might be available.  The Twins have options, but I'd like Senga and Marquez in the rotation with Maeda in the BP until he's efficiently ramped up.  They could even go with a 6-man rotation.  Duran and Lopez at the back end is fine for me.    

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, Beast said:

There’s a telling misconception in this comment.

How does a contract like that “crush” the Twins?  We’ve been told for our whole lives as Twins fans this is the case.  Where is all the hardware to show for that conservative approach?  All that I see is squandered opportunities and a world record for playoff incompetence.

What “crushes” this franchise is that narrative that been pushed and accepted by a lot of fans here.

Personally, I’d rather see actually  them try and fail than pretend to try and market the hell out of it (which, don’t kid yourself, has been the case).  It’s been lip service.  Desperate attempts to get people in the seats while knowing full well there is no hope.

The Astros have gone and built one of the best dynasties in the history of sports by being aggressive and getting Justin Verlander.

So, I guess my question is, a bad deal crushes what?  What exactly do we have to lose?  We’ve sucked for decades with this approach, but as the definition of insanity states, we keep looking for the same path to different results.  We should be begging for something in this stale, hapless organization to be crushed.

So are you one of those people where it's World Championship or Bust? If you don't take the title, then the season was garbage. If you don't win it all, then nothing else you've done matters. Because that's the only way you can legitimately say we've "sucked for decades". 

[Stew]

We can probably get Rodan for 27 million a year.  If we are losing our shortstop , that leaves us an extra  8 million. Plus we have other money freed up to get other needed players .

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Badgolfer34 said:

I hope they make every effort to bring  Correa back. Pitching, I hope they can get a closer, the guys penciled in to start are mostly number 3 or 4 . But they can win the division with that , if they have a closer. Move Kepler and Polonco and get a catcher and go get a reliever in FA

Agreed, moving Keppler or Polanco might help spending if Correa stays. Assuming Correa leaves, no immediate trades needed & we go get a “top end guy” & a solid reliever. As a low risk option, how about converting Plesac from Cleveland into a reliever for $6 million. He’s a competitor that has 2 plus pitches & wouldn’t mind throwing 55-60 times per year. I think his attitude has gotten him released from Guardians? Need better “stuff” in our bullpen - obvious when watching good playoff teams!

[Whitey333]

This team needs a lot of upgrades in all areas especially pitching.  My guess is the FO won't do much in FA pitching.  I like Rodon but figure neither him or any other major FA would come here anyway.  With the organizational philosophy of starters going 5 innings we need a solid bullpen.   They tell us the last two years were flukes and injuries.  Now they are promising a better 2023.  If the are relying mostly on the current players I'm afraid next season will be a repeat of the past two.

[nicksaviking]

I think we can put a lid on deGrom, Verlander and Kershaw. Those guys have already made their big money, are at the end of their careers, and currently play for three of the best teams in the league. These guys rarely chase the top dollar; they'll chose a destination based on contention and/or geography.

I'd like Rodon, but since he's the cream of the crop this year, there will be teams that give him deals longer than we know the Twins will offer. The Twins might be right not to offer a long term deal, but I'd like them to try it just once. If they can't bring in one of the top SS, they should be all in on Rodon; this team doesn't have roster space or needs for a half dozen free agents, just do a few. Quality over quantity.

[Byrdman]

How about we stop making starting pitching articles and completely over haul our bullpen.  Our starters are a good group if they can stay healthy.  But the bullpen is not so much.  Lets make a big splash and drop a 3yr/54mil signing for Edwin Diaz for one of the best closers in baseball.