The Reclamation Starters for Twins Need to End

[Ted Schwerzler]

Prior to the 2022 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins owned a rotation in desperate need of an overhaul. A bad 2021 team used 16 different starting pitchers, more than three rotations worth, and the year ahead had to be a drastic change. The front office immediately opted for more of the same.

 

Image courtesy of Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Going into 2021, manager Rocco Baldelli was strapped with ineffective veterans Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ. The latter posted mediocre numbers with the New York Yankees in a truncated 2020, and hadn’t truly been good since 2018. The former wouldn’t know a clean bill of health if a doctor prescribed it, and while decent when healthy, was nothing short of a trainwreck for the Twins.

In total, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s constructed roster saw a record 35 pitchers brought to the mound. Short starts were a constant due to ineffectiveness, and team mascot Willians Astudillo made four different appearances on the bump.

Fast forward to free agency 2022 and Dylan Bundy was the first acquisition made by Minnesota. Bundy’s lone good season came during the 2020 debacle, and despite being a former 4th overall pick, he’s never looked the part of a legit starting arm. It was a fine back-of-the-rotation edition, but ultimately he made 29 starts and far too often in big spots.

Doubling down on more of the same, the Twins opted for Chris Archer who had recently had Thoracic Outlet surgery and repaired a hip labrum. His 19 1/3 innings dating back to 2019 should’ve never had him beginning 2022 in anyone’s starting rotation. Falvey told reporters recently Minnesota wanted to ease him along, but things never got better.

The Twins President of Baseball Operations said, “Our hope was that if we started a little slow with him … to be able to unleash that a little more through the course of the year,” Falvey said. “And we were just never able to get there. Then when we had other injuries, as a result of the other guys going down … we then ultimately had to continue to lean on Chris at that stage to make those starts.”

Despite using a club record 38 pitchers in 2022, again because of poor performances both in the rotation and bullpen, a positive caveat was discovered depth. Louie Varland followed up a 2021 Minor League Pitcher of the Year award by making it to the big leagues and grabbing his first game on the final day of the season. Simeon Woods Richardson, a piece acquired with Austin Martin from the Blue Jays when Minnesota sent out Jose Berrios, also took a turn in the majors. Add in the continued growth for Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Josh Winder and you’ve got a solid set of depth starters.

We won’t see Devin Smeltzer back in the organization next season as he opted to pursue opportunities elsewhere, but Cole Sands could continue to develop. There’s hope that Jordan Balazovic will return to form, and another big jump from Marco Raya, David Festa, or Blayne Enlow could put them in the conversation as well. In short, there are plenty of options to fill out the group.

That puts pressure on Falvey and Levine to adequately allocate pitching funds this offseason. Whether on the open market or in trade, the time to bargain shop has come and gone. Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle are all capable top-half rotation pieces. Chris Paddack could be that too, assuming he comes back well mid-summer. No one else brought in can even flirt with the notion of slotting in behind that group.

Aces are few and far between in baseball. Rarely do they hit the open market, and it’s always a bit of a dice roll as to which will thrive in a new situation. Minnesota isn’t an ideal market, but money talks and it’s time for the front office to speak with it. Another throw-in starter being signed to anything but a camp invite deal should be cause for significant ire. It’s time to add big or stop asking to be taken seriously.

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[Blyleven2011]

I laugh everytime FO signs an old veteran or a pitcher from the dumpster  or even one that has a history of arm problems  ... 

That may get you competitive games through the season but won't help you win or contend in the playoffs and beyond  ...

Contend is the key word , stay away from the garbage because it stinks ...

[TwinsDr2021]

Unless the plan continues to be only pitch twice though a lineup, then it seems like a huge mistake to pay big money to a pitcher to do that. Now it seems like it would even be a better idea to use your prospects for that and spend money on offensive.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I don't know... feels like a little bit of cherry picking here.  Within the last 10 years, the Twins have also signed:

Kevin Correia
Caleb Thielbar
Blayne Boyer
Phil Hughes
Tommy Milone
Ricky Nolasco
Erv Santana
Michael Pineada
Heck, even RIch Hill

Even Carlos Correa was signed on a "make good" contract (albeit a pricey one).

I would consider all of these to be "reclamation" projects that had various levels of success with the Twins, definitely more plus than minus.  There are reasons why teams, and the Twins specifically, go after these guys.  Some teams believe they can be fixed, some hope to "squeeze every last drop of baseball they have left".

To me, it isn't necessarily going to after these guys, it is being more stringent on the leashes they are given and coming to terms on what is "sunk money"

The Twins will not sign the big names.  Given the equal offers, players will typically choose a bigger market team, a no-income-tax state, or warmer weather.  Successful reclamation projects can go a long way. 

[D.C Twins]

yes...yes it does

[adorduan]

49 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I don't know... feels like a little bit of cherry picking here.  Within the last 10 years, the Twins have also signed:

Kevin Correia
Caleb Thielbar
Blayne Boyer
Phil Hughes
Tommy Milone
Ricky Nolasco
Erv Santana
Michael Pineada
Heck, even RIch Hill

Even Carlos Correa was signed on a "make good" contract (albeit a pricey one).

I would consider all of these to be "reclamation" projects that had various levels of success with the Twins, definitely more plus than minus.  There are reasons why teams, and the Twins specifically, go after these guys.  Some teams believe they can be fixed, some hope to "squeeze every last drop of baseball they have left".

To me, it isn't necessarily going to after these guys, it is being more stringent on the leashes they are given and coming to terms on what is "sunk money"

The Twins will not sign the big names.  Given the equal offers, players will typically choose a bigger market team, a no-income-tax state, or warmer weather.  Successful reclamation projects can go a long way. 

how many playoff games did we win with those guys? that's the goal you know....

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, adorduan said:

how many playoff games did we win with those guys? that's the goal you know....

Considering the rest of the team around them wasn't good, we know the answer there.

I am not saying this is the only route we should go.  I am saying that we have had success with some of these players in the past.  They can be useful pieces to the bigger puzzle.

[mikelink45]

I am not sure what their strategy is, but even if the rotation is sound, 4 - 5 innings means we have half the game in the hands of the BP - every game!  This has not worked and won't work.  Time for a new strategy for both SP and BP.

[DJL44]

The Twins are going to have to decide next season whether to keep Balazovic in the rotation or try him as a reliever. He's getting to the point in his career where they can't carry him on the roster if he isn't able to contribute to the big league team. Sands and Enlow are arms I would say are already destined for the bullpen.

[jmlease1]

I don't have a problem with the twins taking a flyer on a reclamation project. I think it's a problem when they base the rotation on it. It's fine to sign a veteran coming off an injury/bad year to compete for the 5th spot in the rotation with the young guys (I think of this as the "no scholarships" approach), you just can't bet the 3rd spot in the rotation on it.

Between trades and young pitchers, we've established a deeper starter pool and better floor for the rotation. At best there's room for 1 of these kind of flyers (and arguably this season more than others there isn't room for it at all this time), but if you're going to try it then you have to a) let it be a real competition that the rookie/internal candidate can win, and b) not let yourself get trapped by the sunk cost fallacy.

I'd say the needs for the rotation this year are at the top end and floor is well-established, with many options in reserve. So not a great time to take a flyer on a reclamation project. but while I'd rather not spend money there this season, I'm not opposed to it in the future.

[Parfigliano]

I think they are going to regret punting Smeltzer

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article Ted. I agree 100%.

[Thebigalguy]

We have sufficient in house pitching with rooks and vets if healthy. Sign Correa and use what we have on the mound. 

[Rosterman]

If you are not competing, and want to gamble on a possible trade-chip, go dumpster diving. But dumpster diving doesn't mean that player rules.

Always felt the Twins seemed hampered with the need to start Archer (because of contract), when he might be better used in a relief situation.

Also, splurge and get that one big player. It kinda worked for Correa. Except the raining room filled up quickly.

Spend money wisely. Okay, the Twins aren't #1 as the palce "really good" folks wish to land. But trade. And sign better at other weaknesses....get that defensive catcher, that right-handed slugger who can possibly play some in the field, a guy with some speed that can still put -the-ball-in-play. Or, just reward AND KEEP those players you developed that are probably better than anything you can find at the dollar store.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Always felt the Twins seemed hampered with the need to start Archer (because of contract), when he might be better used in a relief situation.

Archer and the team were pretty open about him not being a relief option because of how much work went into getting him ready to pitch each time. I don't disagree that they seem to give some guys extra chances for contract, or trade, costs, but Archer doesn't seem to be one as his situation was more about just physically not being able to get loose on notice in order to relieve.

[rwilfong86]

Develop players and be willing to pay for better quality. 

[DuluthRoots]

Reading this at age 72, having been through it all since 1960, I slowly come to the realization that the Twins will not win another World Series in my lifetime.?

[Riverbrian]

18 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's fine to sign a veteran coming off an injury/bad year to compete for the 5th spot in the rotation with the young guys (I think of this as the "no scholarships" approach), you just can't bet the 3rd spot in the rotation on it.

These type of pitchers are like McDonalds. They can keep you alive while killing you at the same time. 

They can't be sent down so they stay in the name of depth. 

 

 

[Karbo]

I agree that the dumpster diving for a starter just must stop. How are you ever going to get a chance to develop youngsters if they are blocked and don't get a chance against major leaguers? Sure they pitch in the minors, but that really can't tell how well they do against top talent. If they want to gamble on older or washed up pitchers, start them out in the pen. There is no need to sign any one less then an Ace this year, which this FO won't do. Focus on ss, c, and pen.

[Whitey333]

The Twins better hope that at least a couple of their young pitchers develop into real major league pitchers or it's going to be a long rebuild with even more boring, unimaginative and poor baseball for us Twins fans.  The pitching dumpster overwhelmingly hasn't worked.  It's time to change the philosophy.  Great article.

[lukeduke1980]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

These type of pitchers are like McDonalds. They can keep you alive while killing you at the same time. 

They can't be sent down so they stay in the name of depth. 

 

 

And they're getting pretty expensive so you're better off making your own at home

[Old fox]

I wonder how much attendance would have dropped if the Twins had not signed Correa this year? I wonder if Mauer hadn’t signed an eight yr. Contract for $184m?  
To fill the stadium then sign players that fans want to see play.  Fans will not pay good money to watch players that may lack skills, washed up or under perform. 

[Cris E]

38 minutes ago, Old fox said:

I wonder how much attendance would have dropped if the Twins had not signed Correa this year? I wonder if Mauer hadn’t signed an eight yr. Contract for $184m?  
To fill the stadium then sign players that fans want to see play.  Fans will not pay good money to watch players that may lack skills, washed up or under perform. 

Not sure what you're getting at here. Was signing those two a bad move or not? Mauer and Correa are both serious HoF candidates, so I think signing them would be a good move to fill seats. I'm honestly not clear on what you're saying.

To the topic at hand I'd say that teams don't come together all at once, and so you fix different areas in different ways depending on how seriously you're trying to complete in any given year.  In a perfect world you can draft and develop kids into aces, but in a world where you're near the playoffs (finished 1 or 2 all but once 2015-2020) you can't always wait for the kids to fill that #4 hole. You replace time with money and take a couple risks on guys that know what needs doing even if they aren't as good at it as they used to be.  The bad baseball in 2021 and the rash of injuries in 2022 dumped a lot of development time in the laps of a lot of guys who missed huge stretches of games due to Covid, so we suddenly have a lot of young arms maturing at once.  We can afford to be pickier about the back end of the rotation these days and I expect we will be.

 

[David Maro]

The organization is not developing the youth it has to pitch in the big leagues. They spend too much time working on throwing sliders. That is the best way to end up needing TJ or other issues. I listened to John Smoltz announce a Twins game that Cole Sands pitched in and he said he will not make it. He can't repeat his release again and again. I think he would know that better than anyone on this staff. We are in for another long season in 23 no pitching no playoffs.

[Shobae]

On 10/25/2022 at 4:06 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

Unless the plan continues to be only pitch twice though a lineup, then it seems like a huge mistake to pay big money to a pitcher to do that. Now it seems like it would even be a better idea to use your prospects for that and spend money on offensive.

Well if you're paying big money to a guy presumably he has the ability to go a third time through and still be effective but even everyone's favorite Rodon only pitched 36 innings third time through the line up in this season in SF. Unless your name is Sandy Alcantara chances are you won't be going three times through on a regular basis in today's game.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Shobae said:

Well if you're paying big money to a guy presumably he has the ability to go a third time through and still be effective but even everyone's favorite Rodon only pitched 36 innings third time through the line up in this season in SF. Unless your name is Sandy Alcantara chances are you won't be going three times through on a regular basis in today's game.

Then don't pay big money for a guy, seems simple. Pay a guy like Bundy or use your prospects.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

I listened to John Smoltz announce a Twins game that Cole Sands pitched in and he said he will not make it. He can't repeat his release again and again

And his results this year reflect that. 

That is a statement about Cole Sands TODAY and not the entire development system.

It also has nothing to do with tomorrow when it comes to Cole Sands.

Cole threw 30 IP with a 5.87 ERA and that is certainly not a good look. 

The Jose Berrios debut year in 2016. He threw 58 IP with a 8.02 ERA... which was a worse look. Jose was much better in 2017. 

Players can and do get better... Sometimes they arrive with the lights on and sometimes they have to bump shins on coffee tables until the light switch is found. 

And sometimes players get worse.

Only Khris Davis with Oakland produced the same results every year. ?

All in All... I'd be pretty disappointed in John Smoltz if he was attempting to predict the future of Cole Sands based on a couple of innings of watching him from a booth. I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he wasn't. Now... If he was making a statement about Cole Sands at that moment... it was probably an astute statement and his numbers reflected that. 

Would Smoltz say the same thing about Ober or Winder? Or Jose Miranda? 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Shobae said:

Well if you're paying big money to a guy presumably he has the ability to go a third time through and still be effective but even everyone's favorite Rodon only pitched 36 innings third time through the line up in this season in SF. Unless your name is Sandy Alcantara chances are you won't be going three times through on a regular basis in today's game.

Wow!!! 

This happens in other organizations? 

[David Maro]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

The organization is not developing the youth it has to pitch in the big leagues. They spend too much time working on throwing sliders. That is the best way to end up needing TJ or other issues. I listened to John Smoltz announce a Twins game that Cole Sands pitched in and he said he will not make it. He can't repeat his release again and again. I think he would know that better than anyone on this staff. We are in for another long season in 23 no pitching no playoffs.

I was only stating what a Hall of Fame pitcher saw from a young pitcher in the organization that should be working with him to make a change now not later. If his release will not work he will be stuck in the miners like so many others. Pitching is a repeat the same thing again and again. If you have deficulty with using the same motion and release you are lost.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

I was only stating what a Hall of Fame pitcher saw from a young pitcher in the organization that should be working with him to make a change now not later. If his release will not work he will be stuck in the miners like so many others. Pitching is a repeat the same thing again and again. If you have deficulty with using the same motion and release you are lost.

Once while Bowling I rolled a 272 in the first game and followed it with 64 in Game Two. 

My stroke came and went. 

Also could have been the beer.