15 Free Agent Starters the Minnesota Twins Could Target

[blindeke]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kodai Senga has the most upside of the group. Electric stuff and the unknown element of playing in NPB. I’d be happy to sign him. 

Agree. Having Maeda on the club already would also be a bonus for both of them, I'd think.

[prouster]

I’d maybe be interested in Syndergaard, but not as a starter. 

[jmlease1]

So, this is interesting, because what we're talking about here is assuming a different sort of risk on pitching. the risk move here is looking at a bunch of pitchers that all have mixed track records, usually because of injury but some because of inconsistent effectiveness year over year. The bet here is to identify which one of them can have a top-end year later in their career and stay healthy long enough to do it. there's less financial risk here than going for one of the top FA starters, but also much less likelihood of actually getting a superior performance as well.

Which of these guys might increase the top end of the Twins rotation? I'm not enthusiastic about many of these options, because they look like more of Sonny Gray at best and many i have serious concerns that they really can't get to that level through a full season any longer. or stay healthy.

If I wanted to roll the dice on any of these, my choices would probably be: Syndergaard (because he might be able to find another gear now that he's further removed from his injury and had a healthy and successful season, and he's reached that higher end before), Heaney (who might have finally translated his talent into results, lefties sometimes need more time/age well, the K's have always been there, and he'd also bring a different look to the twins rotation), or Senga (who is a wildcard in that you can never be sure how he'd translate to MLB but compared to most of the rest of these guys at least we don't really know where his top end is and most of these guys have a top end that is uninspiring).

but these are all starters that I would have been looking at for the Twins if their rotation was looking like it was at the end of last season, where we NEEDED 2-3 veterans and simply didn't have anyone slotted in for 3/5 of the rotation. Someone like Taijuan Walker is a nice, solid pitcher who is unlikely to be better than Sonny Gray and more likely to be at or worse than Joe Ryan next year. Not what I'm looking for to support this rotation.

[nicksaviking]

32 minutes ago, prouster said:

I’d maybe be interested in Syndergaard, but not as a starter. 

That's an interesting thought. A move to the pen would likely bump up his velocity, and based on how the Twins have operated the last few years, they'd probably have him drop that sinker in favor of more four seamers and sliders to bump up the strike out numbers.

[baul0010]

Oh boy.  That is not a list full of....If we sign two we are making the playoffs next year.  

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm in agreement with a previous comment that names Rodon and Bassitt as the only two guys worth considering in the free agent starting pitching pool. I'm not excited by our triumvirate of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda either. Maeda would be a good choice for the bullpen but his contract is written in a way that he will most likely start. Paddack is a pass with two surgeries and a steep climb ahead. He might be useful in 2025. That leaves Falvey to work on a trade. I want to know what Miami wants for either Pablo Lopez and/or Edward Cabrera. Alcantara may have been available two years ago but no longer is in any scenario. I do like the idea of Varland in one spot and am interested in opportunities for all of Ober, Winder, and Woods Richardson as needed. I see Joe Ryan as the one sure thing in our 2023 starting rotation and he would be best as a #4. Rodon, Lopez, Cabrera, Ryan, and Varland for 2023.

Our contract with Maeda is the same one that the LAD had & they used Maeda extensively in the BP. Coming off surgery recovery, I wouldn't count on Maeda to save our rotation as some think, He is better served in the BP. I don't count on Paddack at all for 2023, and like you said T&R that he might not be useful until '25. We shouldn't caught up on hype but look at reality. Beyond Gray, Mahle & Ryan we look weak as far innings are concerned.

Snydergaard has all the hype but he has been injured a lot. He'll be riskier than others that we'll tried to revamp, So no thanks.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Our contract with Maeda is the same one that the LAD had & they used Maeda extensively in the BP.

I'm sorry, my post should have explained the contract with Maeda more completely. Maeda gets a small (for baseball) incremental bonuses for innings pitched but he makes his real money on games started. One of the reasons the Dodgers traded Maeda was because he wanted to be a starter. Maeda could reasonably earn $9 million in bonuses as a starter if he was healthy, but only $250-500 K as a relief pitcher. I believe there was some spoken agreements in place provided Maeda was healthy. I think we will find out in 2023. Maeda would be fantastic in the bullpen though  because he is that rare entity who recovers quickly in 2-4 inning stints. 

[Minfidel]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Kodai Senga has the most upside of the group. Electric stuff and the unknown element of playing in NPB. I’d be happy to sign him. 

I'd like him in the bullpen with those two pitches. 

[beckmt]

Don't see much there.  Am more likely to roll with either a top of the rotation or more lockdown bullpen help.  We seem to have enough starters unless one falls into our lap, but 2 extra bullpen pieces would really help. 

[Rosterman]

Any ONE of those would be a decent addition, but not the frontline guy I would like to see become the innings eater the Twins need, and the guy to come out and pitch and give folks a rest every fifth day.

It's ncie to know there are a lot of guys better than any of the free-agent signings of the past two years. The Twins have the money to get the best of the batch listed above. 

[DJL44]

I saw today that Zach Eflin is about to be the father of twins. Seems like fate to me.

There is actually a lot to like there - he's young (28) and he's been a shutdown reliever down the stretch for the Phillies. There is a chance he hasn't yet had his best season in the big leagues. He also shouldn't require more than a 3 or 4 year contract.

The Twins seem to have a lot of pitchers to choose from but Mahle, Gray and Maeda are all in the final season of their contracts. Archer and Bundy pitched a lot of innings for the 2022 team and replacing them all with unproven rookies would be a mistake.

[notoriousgod71]

All of these estimated contracts seem too low to me.

[Nick Nelson]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

One of the reasons the Dodgers traded Maeda was because he wanted to be a starter. Maeda could reasonably earn $9 million in bonuses as a starter if he was healthy, but only $250-500 K as a relief pitcher. I believe there was some spoken agreements in place provided Maeda was healthy. I think we will find out in 2023. Maeda would be fantastic in the bullpen though  because he is that rare entity who recovers quickly in 2-4 inning stints. 

Any such agreement came off the table when he missed an entire season with Tommy John, IMO. (And earned $3M to not pitch, fwiw.) If it's true that he can be "fantastic in the bullpen" then the Twins should use him in the way that helps them most. I like Kenta but I don't think think he has much of a leg to stand on after being bad in 2021 and throwing zero innings in 2022.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, notoriousgod71 said:

All of these estimated contracts seem too low to me.

They do?? ? I thought I was mostly aiming on the high side. Most of these guys are not in a strong position to market themselves, and there are at least 8 better SPs than all of them in free agency. 

[rv78]

If they don't sign a difference maker, which I highly doubt they will, I'd just as soon see them go with what they have giving the young guys a chance to prove themselves. They seriously need to upgrade the offense after watching almost every guy on base be left on base. If they can score a couple more runs per game the pitching doesn't have to be lights out.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Any such agreement came off the table when he missed an entire season with Tommy John, IMO. (And earned $3M to not pitch, fwiw.) If it's true that he can be "fantastic in the bullpen" then the Twins should use him in the way that helps them most. I like Kenta but I don't think think he has much of a leg to stand on after being bad in 2021 and throwing zero innings in 2022.

I totally agree and had him only in a bullpen role in one iteration of my Twins roster. However, we do need to see what plays out. I am trading him in my November updated roster that also does not include Judge.?

[Aerodeliria]

Senga has very good stuff and he is tough. He never gets rattled!! He is one of the reasons that when it comes to playoff time, everyone fears the Fukuoka Hawks....the other being their manager Kudoh, who seems to be able to elevate his teams in the playoffs even when they get into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth (too bad that he retired--for Hawks fans).

 

PS-I wouldn't want Thor. Sure the reward potential is high, but the risk potential seems even higher. It would be nice to have a couple of starters who weren't injured or half-injured for 3/4 of the season.

[TopGunn#22]

I appreciate the time and detail that went into this piece.  Rodon would be a true #1 and benefit the staff by pushing everyone down one peg.  The key with Rodon:  are his injuries behind him ?  His talent is not in doubt.  If he could give you 180 quality innings at the top of your rotation he would be a great investment.

None of the other guys really do much for me though when I compare what they could bring to the table in comparison to our young arms coming up...except one:  Senga.  Mid-90's fastball with the ability to hit 98.  A split finger or forkball, if you will,  that looks NASTY.  To me, his price is right and he brings a different wrinkle to the staff.  Plus, it can't hurt to have Maeda as a teammate.  I like our bullpen with Duran & Lopez heading it up, but one more quality arm wouldn't hurt there either.  And I don't think you can simply dismiss the possibility that the Twins consider Duran as a rotation piece.  Not saying it's likely, just saying it's "possible."  

[Shobae]

To my mind what the twins need if they're going to sign starting pitching is someone who can give them at least 150 above average IP. As it stands I think Joe Ryan is really the only twins starter with a clean bill of health who you could count on for 150 IP (according to baseball prospectus he hasn't had any non-covid injuries). But the rest of the rotation is an unknown in terms of how many innings they will throw. I think there would be little sense in bringing in a starter with good or even great upside but who will only throw 100-130 IP.
Out of the list of 16 these are the starters who I think could realistically give the twins badly needed volume Quintana, Manaea, Taillon and Gibson are the four that I think have the highest probability of doing so. (You could argue for a few others maybe but they have higher risk). Except for Quintana none of them stand out as above average performers. You're getting at best league average performance and with gibson (though best record of health) there is also his age (35) which raises concerns. Also given the twins track record of "fixing" free agent pitchers I wouldn't assume they could unlock that next level of potential from manaea/taillon.
The most interesting pitcher in this group is Quintana who does have some age based regression concerns, but over his career has shown an ability to beat predictive metrics (which don't buy into his performance this season) so I think he would be an above average starter, with good upside, who could give you 160ish IP. I'm 50/50 on whether the twins should pursue him, but given their deathly fear of FA starters he's perhaps the best option that is also realistic.

[TwinsDr2021]

53 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If he could give you 180 quality innings at the top of your rotation he would be a great investment.

If I was running a team I would have a hard time paying 20 million plus for 180 innings. (Let alone 25-30)

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

They do?? ? I thought I was mostly aiming on the high side. Most of these guys are not in a strong position to market themselves, and there are at least 8 better SPs than all of them in free agency. 

Yeah, there's way more of this type of pitcher available this offseason than normal, likely because most teams have wised up to giving these guys multi year deals lately so most are just constantly rolling over on 1 and 2 year deals each off season.

Anyway, with this glut, none of them will have any leverage. A couple might find a dopey team like the Rockies or Angels to give them a player friendly deal, but I agree with you, most will get less. Many will get much, much less. Sorry Ricky Nolasco, this isn't 2013 anymore.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If I was running a team I would have a hard time paying 20 million plus for 180 innings. (Let alone 25-30)

$20M won't even get you a premier starter. Verlander and deGrom might get double that per season. Scherzer is making $43M. Cole is at $36M.

[DJL44]

Odorizzi has a $12.5M player option he is sure to exercise. It costs $6.5M to buy him out so the Braves might choose to keep him.

[TwinsDr2021]

46 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

$20M won't even get you a premier starter. Verlander and deGrom might get double that per season. Scherzer is making $43M. Cole is at $36M.

27 pitchers pitched at least 180 innings last year, 8 pitched 200. If I was running a team the only guys I would pay 20+ is guys that average 6+ innings. And Rodon isn't one of them. Just my opinion.

[notoriousgod71]

21 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

They do?? ? I thought I was mostly aiming on the high side. Most of these guys are not in a strong position to market themselves, and there are at least 8 better SPs than all of them in free agency. 

I think they're realistic for what they SHOULD be worth but I always find myself aghast at what I consider mediocre to just bad players are offered.

[HerbieFan]

No thanks on anyone after  #1-5.  I guess the plus of any of the top 5 on this list is it slides Joe Ryan to the #5 slot.  

[Byrdman]

How about this,  We don't sign any of these guys.  We drop 51mil/3yrs on Edwin Diaz to closeout games.  Literally one of the best, if not the best, closer in baseball.  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Byrdman said:

How about this,  We don't sign any of these guys.  We drop 51mil/3yrs on Edwin Diaz to closeout games.  Literally one of the best, if not the best, closer in baseball.  

Jorge Lopez may have been the best reliever in the league until the Twins traded for him. Diaz was only average in 2021 and he was awful in 2019. Relieves are flakey and unpredictable, what makes you think he'll be good in 2023?

[Battle ur tail off]

These are the kinds of guys I have always been against signing. And the Twins continue to do it year after year. Pickup 2 of these types of pitchers and 2-3 of these types of position players. All while wasting money that could have been used to buy 1 or 2 studs. 

TRUST YOUR MINOR LEAGUES. Only sign or trade for studs. Use your system to fill in. 

 

 

[Byrdman]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Jorge Lopez may have been the best reliever in the league until the Twins traded for him. Diaz was only average in 2021 and he was awful in 2019. Relieves are flakey and unpredictable, what makes you think he'll be good in 2023?

Every pitcher is flakey and unpredictable. You question is the same for any player in 2023.  Everyone has a bad year.  Edwin is literally the best option for us in the pitchers market right now.  Having Lopez and Diaz at the back end would be pretty awesome.