15 Free Agent Starters the Minnesota Twins Could Target

[Nick Nelson]

Ideally the Twins will aim toward the top end of starting pitching free agency this offseason. History tells us they won't.

Luckily, this year's market features strong depth in terms of mid-rotation starters with upside to be more. Today we'll look at 15 free agent options in that range.

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher, Gary A. Vasquez, Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week, we set the bar for where the Twins front office needs to aim in reinforcing the rotation: the Sonny Gray Threshold. In the Offseason Handbook, we highlighted eight free agents who arguably fall above that threshold – No. 1 caliber starters who would slot above Gray. 

The Twins certainly have the financial flexibility to pursue one of those arms if Carlos Correa isn't re-signed, but still, we have to acknowledge that they've never waded into that deepest end of the SP pool before. Based on their track record, it's much more likely this front office shops at the next tier, which isn't the worst news because there is some quality to be found and maybe even some decent values.

These are the most likely free agent targets for the Twins. None would be particularly exciting as a primary addition for the rotation, but they are all potential playoff starters, and failing to acquire someone AT LEAST at this level would be downright unacceptable.

1. José Quintana, LHP
Former Team: Cardinals
Age: 34

The cutoff for my "Sonny Gray Threshold" was in between Martín Peréz, the last player profiled in my Handbook story, and Quintana, the first player profiled here. Admittedly, it's a very thin line, because these are both previously underwhelming veteran left-handers coming off breakthrough seasons where they pitched like legitimate No. 1 starters, despite unimpressive K-rates. I'm less high on Quintana – who posted a fantastic 2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 32 starts for the Pirates and Cardinals – because he's a few years older (turning 34 in January) and threw 30 fewer innings. You'd be buying high on either southpaw, but in both cases, there's no knocking the 2022 performance. 

• Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million

2. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
Former Team: Phillies
Age: 30

I'll be fascinated to see how Syndergaard's market takes shape. He's got the big name, the mighty aura, the flashy track record. He also pitched two total innings between 2020 and '21, and in his return to action last year he was ... Thor Lite. The fastball velo was way down, along with the strikeouts. He posted a 3.94 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 134.2 IP between the Angels and Phillies. Even in this lesser form, Syndergaard was still solid, but if you're signing him it's probably based on the belief that his velocity and dominance will return. At this point that's a leap of faith.

• Estimated Contract: 3 years, $51 million

3. Taijuan Walker, RHP
Former Team: Mets
Age: 30

There were rumblings that the Twins were close to signing Walker ahead of the 2020 season, banking on a return to form for the former top prospect who missed nearly all of 2018-19. No deal ended up materializing, but their instinct was right: Walker has stayed mostly healthy in three seasons since, posting a 3.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He has a player option but is sure to opt out in search of a multi-year deal coming off a strong season. He's one of the youngest players on this list.

• Estimated Contract: 4 years, $52 million

4. Kodai Senga, RHP
Former Team: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (Japan)
Age: 30 

One of the biggest pitching stars in Japan is reportedly set to opt out of his contract and pursue a deal in the majors. Senga has been excellent in NPB, where he posted a pristine 1.89 ERA last year with 159 strikeouts and seven home runs allowed in 148 innings. There is obviously uncertainty about how his game will translate to MLB. With a mid-90s fastball accompanied by unremarkable secondary stuff, he's definitely not on the Masahiro Tanaka or Yu Darvish tier, but Senga could be a quality #2 type. A big risk but a potentially intriguing one. 

• Estimated Contract: 4 years, $50 million

5. Sean Manaea, LHP
Former Team: Padres
Age: 31 

He was the apple of many a Twins fan's eye last offseason, when the Athletics were known to be dangling him. Manaea ended up going to the San Diego, and didn't have a very good season: 158 IP, 4.96 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 29 HR allowed. His stock is down, but there's a reason he was in demand to begin with: Manaea has consistently been a quality performer while at times flashing top-of-rotation upside. Even in his disappointing 2022 he still averaged about a strike out per inning.

• Estimated Contract: 3 years, $48 million

6. Michael Wacha, RHP
Former Team: Red Sox
Age: 31

Once a promising young 17-game winner for the Cardinals, Wacha's career was derailed in his late 20s to the point where he had to take a one-year make-good deal with the Red Sox last offseason. He made good indeed, going 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP, but the underlying metrics weren't that impressive and Wacha's prior recent track record was brutal (5.11 ERA in 2019-21). There's a lot of risk in gambling on him, and I'm not sure how much reward.

• Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million

7. Jameson Taillon, RHP
Former Team: Yankees
Age: 31

When they acquired Taillon from the Pirates, the Yankees hoped to emulate what Houston did with Gerrit Cole: extract an underperforming former top draft pick from Pittsburgh's rotation and unlock his true potential. That didn't happen. Taillon was much more good than great during two seasons in the Bronx, posting a 4.08 ERA in 322 innings – translating to a 100 ERA+ that rates him as exactly average. That said, he's been pretty durable and his 4.72 K/BB ratio in 2022 is appealing.

• Contract Estimate: 3 years, $36 million

8. Zach Eflin, RHP
Former Team: Phillies
Age: 28

Advanced metrics have always viewed Eflin more favorably than his core results, which amount to a 4.49 ERA in about 650 career innings. He has very good control but isn't dominant, with middling fastball speeds and strikeout rates that belie his big 6-foot-6 frame. I'd describe him as the very definition of a mid-rotation starter, but a fairly reliable one at that. His biggest selling point perhaps is his age – still only 28 as of next Opening Day.

• Estimated Contract: 3 years, $36 million

9. Andrew Heaney, LHP
Former Team: Dodgers
Age: 31

Much like with Tyler Anderson, the Dodgers gambled on Heaney with a one-year deal, believing that the left-hander had much more ability in him than the sub-par numbers showed. Much like with Anderson, that gamble paid off in a big way, as Heaney dominated to the tune of a 3.10 ERA and 13.6 K/9 rate. The only reason he's not alongside Anderson on this list is that he simply didn't have the volume – only 73 innings thrown in 14 appearances (12 starts) due to injuries. His preceding track record is also much uglier than Anderson's. Still, Heaney finally realized his frontline stuff this year and offers tantalizing upside.

• Estimated Contract: 2 years, $28 million

10. Drew Smyly, LHP
Former Team: Cubs
Age: 33 

The veteran lefty lost his entire 2017-18 seasons to injury, and has since bounced around a whole bunch: from Texas to Philly to San Francisco to Atlanta to Chicago, all within a span of four years. So many teams have seen promise in his undeniably intriguing stuff from the left side but no one's been able to fully unlock his top performance over an extended period. The Cubs came as close as anyone this past season, where he had a 3.47 ERA over 106.1 IP, but he posted a career-low K-rate and home runs continued to haunt him (he's allowed 77 in 373.1 IP since 2019). He does have a mutual option with Chicago although those rarely seem to get activated. 

• Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million

11. Ross Stripling, RHP
Former Team: Blue Jays
Age: 33

Stripling is, in many ways, a prototype pitcher for this front office: a hybrid pitcher who's consistently phased between starting and relieving, while remaining mostly successful in both roles: he has a 3.86 career ERA as a starter, 3.51 as a reliever. The right-hander is coming off a season where he won 10 games and posted a 3.01 ERA in 134.1 IP for Toronto, so he'll probably be looked at as more of a starter with swingman qualities. 

• Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million

12. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Former Team: Braves
Age: 33

Odorizzi once again heads into free agency on a sour note. Following a strong first half in Houston, he was traded to Atlanta, where he posted a 5.24 ERA in 46.1 IP and dealt with arm fatigue, then struggled in one postseason appearance. Despite the flat finish, he'll still probably turn down his $6.5 million player option in search of a somewhat larger payday. But much like after his 2020 season, which was ravaged to the core by injuries, Odo won't be in a position to command a ton. He projects are more of back-of-rotation starter at this point but Twins fans have seen him at his best; maybe it's still in there somewhere.

• Estimated Contract: 2 years, $14 million

13. Corey Kluber, RHP
Former Team: Rays
Age: 36

We probably need to divorce ourselves from the idea that the two-time Cy Young winner will ever regain his previous form. But that doesn't mean he can't be, or hasn't been, effective in this reduced state. He posted a 4.34 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 164 innings for Tampa in 2022. While he no longer has the stuff to blow people away, with a fastball that's dropped to the high 80s, he still gets people to chase his slider. And one strength that HAS returned is his elite control – he led the league in BB/9 this year, as he did in 2017 and 2018.

• Estimated Contract: 1 year, $12 million

14. Kyle Gibson. RHP
Former Team: Phillies
Age: 35

Another former Twin and former All-Star whose stock is down. Gibson had a career year in 2021, posting a 3.75 ERA and 3.0 fWAR in 182 innings, but the past season was more of a struggle: 5.05 ERA, 1.8 fWAR in 167.2 IP. He just turned 35 and it's hard to see much upside left, but Gibson has been durable (29-plus starts in every non-pandemic year since 2017) and steadily solid. He falls well short of the Sonny Gray Threshold but can't be ignored as an option given the familiarity and likelihood of a short-term deal.

• Estimated Contract: 1 year, $8 million

15. Wade Miley, LHP
Former Team: Cubs
Age: 36

The well-traveled veteran was limited to just 37 innings in 2022 due to elbow inflammation and a shoulder strain. After missing most of the season, he came back and pitched pretty well in September, as if to make a statement about his readiness to rebound next year. Miley has consistently pitched well when on the mound, and he'll probably be available for an incentive-laden one-year deal, which is up Minnesota's alley. But his age combined with two scary arm issues this past season pose a lot of risk for a team that's trying to steer toward dependability.

• Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million

 

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[sorney]

This whole list has a feeling of "ugh" sadly, for those hoping for a massive upgrade.

[Steve71]

16.  None of the Above.

I would rather watch our young pitchers sink or swim than this collection of pitchers.  None of them make us a playoff team.  Rondon or something of that caliber.  Otherwise, save your powder for other position players or relievers.

[Doctor Gast]

Sorry Nick, none of these really do anything for me. Odorizzi, did well for us because we handled him with "kit gloves". Away from MN they didn't & he peters out.

Unfortunately we can't afford the FA SP what most MN fans are clamoring for. 

[Mark G]

Not entirely a motley crew, but not a lot to get excited about either.  Take an honest shot at a couple of the upper tier guys (Rodon?), meaning serious offers, but if not, maybe stay with our own kids before any of these guys.  I would rather sign stud BP guys than iffy #3 or #4 starters.  

[Major League Ready]

The list should consist of Rodon and Bassitt.  I would much rather invest the innings in developing SWR / Varland and perhaps Winder if Rodon or Bassitt can't be persuaded to play here.  Not to mention, Maeda and eventually Paddack being as good or better as most of these options.  There is more to be gained by investing in RPs even with the caveat that RPs are as unpredictable as it gets.   

[Linus]

Maybe Walker. Otherwise this is just adding depth not top end quality. 

[Doug Y]

My first instinct is No to all of them. I want someone better, but I know how the Twins operate. 

[saviking]

To be honest, we have so much depth in our starting staff it doesn't make sense to get another starting pitcher unless he's a top line guy. I would rather spend the money on making our bullpen the envy of the majors. If Alcala comes back we are half way there.. Go get 3 more studs to go along with them. Can't wait for you to review the relief pitchers available. 

[Johnny Ringo]

The Twins never make a splash in this regard and this is not the group to inspire them to break that habit. They will hobble together a rotation out of their massive inventory of broken toys. 

History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes. 

[Vanimal46]

Kodai Senga has the most upside of the group. Electric stuff and the unknown element of playing in NPB. I’d be happy to sign him. 

[mac098]

There is only about 3 I would take a flyer on here. Syndergaard, Walker, and Eflin. Of those on this list, these are the 3 that seem like they have the most upside to be a top of the rotation player. With 2 of them, we might be able to squeeze a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd year. I think Walker will command a minimum of 4 year deal. Especially if it gets him out of the Big Apple. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Sorry but I pass on all of these. Too risky. If I had to sign one, I'd sign Kluber due to his control. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm in agreement with a previous comment that names Rodon and Bassitt as the only two guys worth considering in the free agent starting pitching pool. I'm not excited by our triumvirate of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda either. Maeda would be a good choice for the bullpen but his contract is written in a way that he will most likely start. Paddack is a pass with two surgeries and a steep climb ahead. He might be useful in 2025. That leaves Falvey to work on a trade. I want to know what Miami wants for either Pablo Lopez and/or Edward Cabrera. Alcantara may have been available two years ago but no longer is in any scenario. I do like the idea of Varland in one spot and am interested in opportunities for all of Ober, Winder, and Woods Richardson as needed. I see Joe Ryan as the one sure thing in our 2023 starting rotation and he would be best as a #4. Rodon, Lopez, Cabrera, Ryan, and Varland for 2023.

[gman]

The Twins just had a season of injured players without signing more players with injury histories. Unfortunately by the time most pitchers hits free agency they lost their fastball and gained a medical history.

[Muppet]

I hope they look first for a great pitching coach and a trainer. Otherwise they'll spend a ton of money for a guy that gets injured after 6 starts and all the other pitchers will be overworked with sub-par stuff. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

I echo the words of others, none of these guys are titillating. Go with the "pipeline" instead. Less risk, more potential upside.

[mikelink45]

Like the others I want to redraw your Gray line - none of these pitchers move the bar.  It is young pitchers or a trade!  Odorizzi and Gibson on the list indicate how weak this FA crop really is.  As I read your reviews so many had bad years, so many are questionable, and almost all of them are too old to expect a great rise in performance.

[Sparky55]

Would one of these starters make a move to be a relief pitcher? Since our starters only go 5 innings most of the time our bullpen should be loaded with pitchers that can go multiple innings. Maybe have 2 sets of starting pitchers (10) and 3 pitchers that are either set up men or closers. Don't pitch 4 pitchers 1 inning every game you don't have enough of them.

[chpettit19]

Based on this list alone (so no Rodon option) it's Kodai Senga or wait out the Walker, Manaea, Eflin, Taillon types to see if you can get one of them for a 1 or 2 year deal. If not it's no big loss and move on with what they have in the rotation while spending a ton on position players and the pen.

[Byrdman]

All of them are not any better than Sonny.  If you feel we need one for depth do so otherwise our starters are a very solid bunch, despite what this forums says.  

[Karbo]

I don't see any of them coming to the Twins. Maybe Thor on a year "prove it" type of contract. I agree with most of the posts saying they need to focus on the pen. A good pen would probably amount to more wins than any of these pitchers IMHO.

[Karbo]

25 minutes ago, Muppet said:

I hope they look first for a great pitching coach and a trainer. Otherwise they'll spend a ton of money for a guy that gets injured after 6 starts and all the other pitchers will be overworked with sub-par stuff. 

I think they have already committed to Maki.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

So basically, for the purposes of this article, we are talking about spending more money for a pitchers that provide no discernable upgrade over the pitchers we currently have...

The only name I would consider for SP is Walker, but not at that price.

Some of these guys COULD provide some depth in the BP.  I would look at Stripling or Kluber (if they were willing to take that role).  Kluber especially could flourish if he knew he was only going to throw 30 pitches per outing.

I would also be willing to take the incentive laden flier on Miley.  Still effective when healthy.

[roger]

I don't often disagree with you, Nick.  But today I must.  I don't see it as unacceptable should they not acquire someone on this list or better.  Unlike many here, I am 100% comfortable with them going to opening day with the arms they have who are capable starters...Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Paddack (come August), Winder, Varland and SWR.  

I am more concerned that they get at least one very good late inning reliever for the bullpen AND get a catcher who will be at least 1A with Jeffers as 1B.  Should they sign one of these as insurance, I would prefer he be a lefty and one of the younger from your group.  Like many above, I would be excited should they sign Rodon or someone close who would battle Gray for the #1 spot in the rotation.  I just don't feel the winter will be lost if they don't.

[jjswol]

The most valuable pitcher on this list for the Twins might be number 11 Rod Stripling.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

Maybe Kodai Senga, but have no idea.

The rest of them are just more expensive 5 inning pitchers, there isn't one on that list that screams to this FO/Manager let him go another inning, or ignore it is the 6th and the batter up is opposite handed but should be left in. The only starter that should be brought in should be the type that makes the FO/Manager veer off its philosophy.

[MTV]

These are very uninspiring pitchers, they’d be solid #3s at best outside of maybe Taillon. Jose Quintana should NOT be trusted, or any pitcher out of St. Louis. Maybe it’s there staff vs. ours but they made J.A. Happ look solid for half a season. Also there’s no way in hell Manaea gets a 3-year deal

[weitz41]

The FO has yet to sign a SP to an expected contract so unless it's a bargain or a 1 and done I don't expect them to sign any of them.

Kodai Senga #4 would be my choice and has a chance to be above the Gray line.

[nicksaviking]

Senga, or let the young arms pitch. These types of pitchers always feel like boring but reasonable depth until they stink it up in April, or even worse, pitch poorly, but not quite poorly enough to pull the plug early.

The rule of thumb should be that if a free agent pitcher starts losing the ability to strike guys out, RUN. It's almost certainly all downhill from there. And without looking, I'd guess just about every one of these guys has seen his K rates plummet in the last year or so. There's a reason that year after year, other teams let their pitch-to-contact pitchers hit free agency much more frequently than the pitchers still missing bats. They have an idea about what's in store for these guys.