The Sonny Gray Threshold: Searching for a Real Rotation Upgrade

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins already have rotation depth going into 2023, at least in terms of pure quantity. They don't need more bottom-of-rotation starters like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer. What they need to do is acquire someone at or above what I call the 'Sonny Gray Threshold.'

It'll be our guiding barometer as we assess the team's rotation strategy this offseason.

Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

I am of the opinion that it's a failure if the Twins go into 2023 with Sonny Gray as their standalone No. 1 starter. This might've been the underlying rationale behind adding Tyler Mahle at the deadline, but unfortunately, Mahle should be viewed as no more than a question mark and hopeful contributor for next year. You simply can't plan around a guy who threw 16 innings after being acquired, and finished on the injured list with an unresolved shoulder issue.

Kenta Maeda, much like Mahle, is a pitcher who's shown top-of-rotation ability but can't be firmly depended upon for a whole lot. At age 35, with only 173 total innings under his belt over the past three seasons, the Twins may be best off placing him in a long relief or swingman role, as he often filled in Los Angeles. 

Meanwhile, Gray himself was limited to just 120 innings in 2022, with multiple hamstring injuries disrupting a full season even by his modest standards for what one looks like.

With all this instability near the top of the rotation, the Twins really need to add a proven, durable, high-caliber starter who would be a credible option to start a postseason game. They need near, or ideally above, the level of Gray. 

In the newest chapter of the Offseason Handbook, Reinforcing the Rotation, I took a look eight high-end free agents and 10 potential trade targets who arguably land at or above the Sonny Gray Threshold. I also broke down the internal pitching pipeline with a look at which prospects might be able to help, and when. 

It's all now available to download for Caretakers, who can also access our previously released Handbook installments covering the payroll and the future of shortstop. If you're not a Caretaker already, you can sign up here for as little as $6/month and get plenty of other perks including free entry to the Winter Meltdown (details coming soon!).

Of course, there will also be plenty of free content available to everyone on the site this week a we take a collective deep dive into the Twins' starting pitching needs and options. Stay tuned and let's see if we can surpass the Sonny Gray Threshold. 

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[TNTwinsFan]

At first glance youmight think there might be some intriguing arms on the FA market this off season: Rodon, Nola (obviously Club Option will be exercised), Severino (Club Option will also be exercised), Kershaw (age concerns), Verlander (age concerns), uh...most other available arms on the market have age or performance concerns. Not sure Bauer doesn't take that $35mm player option and chill at home (besides, if he declines, who's paying that dude to represnt their team?) Twins don't need Price, Sale, other aging, underperforming SPs. So it would seem that the Twins will need to go the trade route to upgrade their rotation. I believe there have been a few articles about potential trade targets. Top targets will probably require a heavy amount of Prospect Capital to acquire (think about just how much it would tke to pry someone like Alcantara away from the Marlins now!) Do the Twins have the stomach or even the Prospect Capital to completely gut their farm fo upgrades of that caliber? How would Twins Nation react? I'm not suggesting its a hopeless situation, just, more challenging than I initially thought. I also get the impression that somethink we can jus go out and buy or trade for upgrades at the drop of a hat. I think Twins fans are in for a long winter.

[roger]

I am not as concerned as you, Nick, should the Twins not acquire that top starter.  And no, I will not agree that by not doing so they are forfeiting their chances of making the playoffs and beyond.

I also will not be surprised if they bring back one of their two free agent signings from last year.  Both were coming off periods where they were injured and hadn't pitched all that much.  Although their innings were limited, both got thru the 2022 season with some degree of success.  I won't be surprised, nor disappointed, should they bring either of them back although Archer would be my preference.

Should they go into opening day with a rotation of Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan and Ober, I am of the opinion that they can win with that group.  After all, that supposed ACE is only going to play in every fifth game and should they remain healthy, this group has four others that can compete well against most other team's second thru fifth starters.  Should they bring Archer/or/Bundy back, they would provide depth along with Winder and Paddack when he returns in August.  Add Louie and SWR as promising young studs who have pitched for the Twins and I see this as an excellent group.  

Thus, my main concern going into 2023 remains finding one more top arm for the bullpen and a catcher who will start more games than Jeffers.

 

[Linus]

This is why last off season was a huge opportunity missed. Lots of good pitching options available. It’s clearly going to be tougher this year. 

[Riverbrian]

If the Twins want a pitcher to surpasses the Sonny Gray threshold they will most likely have to develop him. 

 

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Twins want a pitcher to surpasses the Sonny Gray threshold they will mosr likely have to develop him. 

 

Yeah, even if you take the money and the contract length out of the equation, more often than not, the pitcher's best years come BEFORE he hits free agency, not after. 

[Vanimal46]

Developing the arm is the correct answer. We’ve seen it year after year where Falvey bids up to a certain amount of years (5 for both Darvish and Wheeler) and another team tacks on the additional year to win the bid. 

If we go the trade route, which I prefer greatly over signing a FA pitcher, Miami is the clear choice to call. Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Max Meyer are all very intriguing options. I would try to see who they like most out of (Polanco or Arraez), (Larnach or Wallner), and a pitching prospect to get a deal done. 

If Miami doesn’t want to play ball, I would call Arizona and see if Zac Gallen could be had for the right price. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

"It's deja vu all over again", to quote Yogi Berra. Once again, the Twins need 1) an above average defensive catcher with a good strong arm,  a gold glove defensive SS who can hit, and an ace pitcher. How many straight years have the Twins had these 3 needs during the off season?  2 of the most important position players, plus the most important player on a championship team...the proverbial, shutdown "Ace" pitcher. Question:  If the Twins repeatedly have these 3 key needs, how can the FO ever realistically expect to win a World Series? Answer, They can't. Solution: Pay Correa his 350 million dollars; pay Sanchez 30 million for 3 years; and pay Rodon his ??? millions. Carpe diem. 

[Blyleven2011]

I'm still predicting my gut feeling that Sonny Gray will request a trade out of the twins organization  ...

 

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Twins want a pitcher to surpasses the Sonny Gray threshold they will most likely have to develop him. 

They have a player who throws 100 MPH with two different nasty breaking balls. I think they should try putting Duran in the rotation. Worst case they put him back in the bullpen where he has already proven he can contribute.

[Thebigalguy]

Good article. Thing is, the Twins have plenty of arms either on the roster or in the wings, but no guarantees. Their best bets are Ryan and Duran, two youngsters, as a starter and a closer. A top-of-the-line starter who could also be a mentor to young pitchers would be ideal. Not too many of those. I'd like to see them sign Correa long term. That would limit payroll for pitching, but the competition is the Astros and the Yankees if the Series is the goal, and we all saw what the Astros just accomplished (and this time without cheating, we presume). Baldelli needs to free himself from pitch counts with his starters, and tell his pitchers so; otherwise, Blyleven2011 might well be right about Gray wanting out of the organization. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Twins want a pitcher to surpasses the Sonny Gray threshold they will mosr likely have to develop him. 

 

Rec this. Sage words from an Old-Timey TD member.

[Reptevia]

The same ‘ok on the forums…”They need to go buy an ace or #2”!!!!   When has that ever happened?  Should the current staff stay even a little healthy, they should be an average staff. That’s more than a lot of teams have. Bottom line is, we’re not one pitcher or one SS away from playoff contenders. We are sub-par at RF, LF, 1b, C, SS and probably CF. Without a competent backup to Buxton, CF over the whole year is roughly League replacement level. Given all the current lineup needs, is it a wise time to be trading away all their potential replacements?

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Developing the arm is the correct answer. We’ve seen it year after year where Falvey bids up to a certain amount of years (5 for both Darvish and Wheeler) and another team tacks on the additional year to win the bid. 

If we go the trade route, which I prefer greatly over signing a FA pitcher, Miami is the clear choice to call. Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Max Meyer are all very intriguing options. I would try to see who they like most out of (Polanco or Arraez), (Larnach or Wallner), and a pitching prospect to get a deal done. 

If Miami doesn’t want to play ball, I would call Arizona and see if Zac Gallen could be had for the right price. 

Agreed

However, even the trade route is going to take further development of the guy acquired to get him past the Sonny Gray threshold. If the player you are acquiring is already past the Gray threshold, very few teams are giving him up and if they do the price will cost farm system depletion.

If you deplete the farm system, it is going to hamstring the developing of your own guy from your system because that guy is who they will ask for to make it happen.

Not saying it can't be done... Kluber came cheap and blossomed through further development but either way... Joe Ryan has been more than expected. Either way... Development is the most reasonable way to find that guy.  

All teams... Even the Dodgers and especially the Twins/Marlins are going to need 600K guys who can get the job done in order to afford the bigger contracts. If you trade off the 600k guys, you find yourself stuck in free agency being the only way to fill your roster. When that happens to the Twins... The Archer's, Bundy's and Happ's are what show up more often than not. Once you reach that point... the full scale rebuild is just a moment away.    

[stringer bell]

I agree that having a pitcher better than Sonny Gray is a reasonable goal and would be a large step toward better outcomes in future seasons. There are not a lot of top guys available this off season. I think Rodon would be the best fit of the lot and it helps that he isn't ancient (turns 30 in December) and throws left handed. Rodon's injury history probably needs to be considered, but he worked the most innings he has ever pitched this past season.

[Riverbrian]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They have a player who throws 100 MPH with two different nasty breaking balls. I think they should try putting Duran in the rotation. Worst case they put him back in the bullpen where he has already proven he can contribute.

I don't know about Rotation but I certainly want more than 60 innings from him. 

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed

However, even the trade route is going to take further development of the guy acquired is still needed to get him past the Sonny Gray threshold. If the player you are acquiring is already past the Gray threshold, very few team are giving him up and if they do the price will cost farm system depletion. If you deplete the farm system, it is going to hamstring the developing of your own guy from your system because that guy is who they will ask for to make it happen. Not saying it can't be done... Kluber came cheap and blossomed through further development but either way... Joe Ryan has been more than expected. Either way... Development is the most reasonable way to find that guy.  

All teams... Even the Dodgers and especially the Twins/Marlins are going to need 600K guys who can get the job done in order to afford the bigger contracts. If you trade off the 600k guys, you find yourself stuck in free agency being the only way to fill your roster and when that happens to the Twins... The Archer's, Bundy's and Happ's are what show up more often than not. Once you reach that point... the full scale rebuild is just a moment away.    

If/when we make a trade, we’ve got to be disciplined to trade from positions of surplus. Which, from my BarcaLounger, looks like 2B, LH hitting corner OF, and near-ready back of the rotation arms requiring further development. That’s why in my proposal to Miami (or Arizona) it’s focused on Polanco or Arraez as the headliner, a corner OF, and a pitching prospect (whether that’s Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, etc.) 

What made zero sense last winter was us trading away multiple catchers, turning a decent depth position into a deficit. As a result, we had to play a AAAA talent in Sandy Leon, and a AAA talent in Caleb Hamilton for weeks at a time. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

What made zero sense last winter was us trading away multiple catchers

Who both ended up battling injuries and played fewer games combined than Gary Sanchez.

[twinfan]

Today's game doesn't even require a super #1 starter anymore but does require a deep lockdown bullpen. Starters rarely go more than 6 innings or 95 pitches but the bullpen may pitch 3-4 innings per game. That is where a low budget team like the Twins can come out on top if they can scout the right talent. Gray, Maeda, Mahle (?), Ryan, Ober and even Bundy can be a decent rotation though an upgrade or two wouldn't hurt. It's the bullpen that will really make the difference between contending and not. And when the playoffs roll around, unless you have a bye in the first round, your #1 starter only gets to start the first game once per series and may not be available more than twice total in a series. 

[Cris E]

I'd be OK waiting til the trade deadline to find that ace IF they went about their business at other positions with some alacrity. Fix SS, find a catcher, get a training staff in and get them working with the team immediately. (I think a lot of last season's  injury problems could have been linked to players not being allowed to talk to staff during the lockout and being left on their own to prepare for the season.)

There really aren't any great FA starting pitching options out there, especially if you're considering Rodon in an org with our medical issues.  So get a new bullpen arm or two, shift some dreck around, sell Maeda on the notion of becoming Duran so Duran can be the closer, and then start laying the groundwork for a pitching trade.  They pulled off a couple last year that failed for injury reasons, but they have to stay after it. Sonny Grey throwing 170 IP should be the threshold. The kids are coming along, but so many players are missing those lost and shortened seasons right now that we have to expect some fits and starts in their development.  2023 could be pretty surprising in that regard.

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Japanese pitcher Kodai Senga is someone I would be very interested in pursuing.  He has a track record as one of the best pitchers in Japan in recent years.  He also won't be subject to the MLB-NPB posting system since he accrued enough service time.  He is 30 years old.  It's been reported he will trigger an opt-out in his contract. Definitely someone the Twins should consider.  I am hopeful too that our younger pitchers (Ryan, Ober, Varland, and SWR) will continue improving going forward.  Much better solution them trading prospect capital or signing expensive free agents to long term contracts.  

 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

"It's deja vu all over again", to quote Yogi Berra. Once again, the Twins need 1) an above average defensive catcher with a good strong arm,  a gold glove defensive SS who can hit, and an ace pitcher. How many straight years have the Twins had these 3 needs during the off season?  2 of the most important position players, plus the most important player on a championship team...the proverbial, shutdown "Ace" pitcher. Question:  If the Twins repeatedly have these 3 key needs, how can the FO ever realistically expect to win a World Series? Answer, They can't. Solution: Pay Correa his 350 million dollars; pay Sanchez 30 million for 3 years; and pay Rodon his ??? millions. Carpe diem. 

Your solution is brilliant!  Just spend $90M of a $60M budget on three guys (who obviously must not have any voice in the matter). Perfect.

[jmlease1]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

If/when we make a trade, we’ve got to be disciplined to trade from positions of surplus. Which, from my BarcaLounger, looks like 2B, LH hitting corner OF, and near-ready back of the rotation arms requiring further development. That’s why in my proposal to Miami (or Arizona) it’s focused on Polanco or Arraez as the headliner, a corner OF, and a pitching prospect (whether that’s Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, etc.) 

What made zero sense last winter was us trading away multiple catchers, turning a decent depth position into a deficit. As a result, we had to play a AAAA talent in Sandy Leon, and a AAA talent in Caleb Hamilton for weeks at a time. 

we traded away two catchers, but brought back one in the deal. Garver was injured and declined at the plate for Texas, only catching 14 games and only playing in 54. Rortvedt was also injured and hit so poorly in AAA that he couldn't crack the Yankees MLB roster. Sanchez and Jeffers caught more games than Garver/Rortvedt combined last season. Heck, if Jeffers had caught a couple more games, they would have EACH caught more games than Garver/Rortvedt combined. I'd say the Twins won out on that deal, even with Jeffers sustaining a significant injury that cost him a lot of time. And I say that as someone who kept buying Ben Rortvedt stock even after I should have realized that he just can't hit.

I generally agree with the basic proposition that the twins should not be bringing in veteran starters unless they add to the top end of the rotation. (I usually framed it against Joe Ryan not Sonny Gray, but the idea is the same) Can we count on Mahle, Gray, Maeda, & Ryan to be a #1 for a full season? not without assuming a lot of risk. But we're better off riding that risk than throwing $12M at another Dylan Bundy type who can eat innings but only do it at a below league-average ability. They don't need to trade for rotation depth any longer, and they don't need to sign re-treads when they have Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Woods Richardson, Winder, and Dobnak already on the 40-man, with Paddack eventually coming back, Sands still being a possibility, and Balazovic as an option as well. But it seems unlikely that trade is where they're going to find that top-end pitcher at this point. the minors are getting thinner with prospects, and frankly the twins need to keep their pipeline going. Right now they have cash available, so if they're not going to spend it on Correa or one of the other top SS, then dropping big money on a top starter seems a reasonable risk. the floor is getting covered now. raise the ceiling, please.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They have a player who throws 100 MPH with two different nasty breaking balls. I think they should try putting Duran in the rotation. Worst case they put him back in the bullpen where he has already proven he can contribute.

I think there is a reasonable chance that happens because as you mentioned the WCS is he goes back to the BP.  It's a lot easier to come up with a good BP arm than a top of the rotation starter.  That said, I could see them not wanting to mess with success.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Wait for the kids to develop.  We have enough in the pipeline that one or two of them should develop into something better than Sonny Gray.  Once they do, then sign them to long term contracts.

[terrydactyls]

31 minutes ago, twinfan said:

Today's game doesn't even require a super #1 starter anymore but does require a deep lockdown bullpen. Starters rarely go more than 6 innings or 95 pitches but the bullpen may pitch 3-4 innings per game. That is where a low budget team like the Twins can come out on top if they can scout the right talent. Gray, Maeda, Mahle (?), Ryan, Ober and even Bundy can be a decent rotation though an upgrade or two wouldn't hurt. It's the bullpen that will really make the difference between contending and not. And when the playoffs roll around, unless you have a bye in the first round, your #1 starter only gets to start the first game once per series and may not be available more than twice total in a series. 

Your comment that "your #1 starter only gets to start the first game once per series" makes me ask:  How many first games of a series should there be?  (Please insert a sarcasm emoji here.)

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

If/when we make a trade, we’ve got to be disciplined to trade from positions of surplus. Which, from my BarcaLounger, looks like 2B, LH hitting corner OF, and near-ready back of the rotation arms requiring further development. That’s why in my proposal to Miami (or Arizona) it’s focused on Polanco or Arraez as the headliner, a corner OF, and a pitching prospect (whether that’s Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, etc.) 

What made zero sense last winter was us trading away multiple catchers, turning a decent depth position into a deficit. As a result, we had to play a AAAA talent in Sandy Leon, and a AAA talent in Caleb Hamilton for weeks at a time. 

If I were to guess and guessing is all I have. 

Garver was what the Rangers required to beat whatever the Yankees were offering for IKF because that's what it took to get the deal done. The Twins were probably offering something surplussy and you would have to assume that the Yankees were offering something surplussy. Ultimately the Rangers wanted a catcher to get it done, which was obviously something that the Yankees didn't have because they asked for Rortvedt in order to fill what they couldn't provide to the Rangers.    

Just guessing but I assume that the Twins didn't plan on trading off catcher depth but that is what the trading team was asking for. It takes two to tango, which just goes to show that we can have a surplus but... that piece of the puzzle has different edges to it.   

 

 

[USAFChief]

36 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Your solution is brilliant!  Just spend $90M of a $60M budget on three guys (who obviously must not have any voice in the matter). Perfect.

Prolly more like $70m.

Correa $35, Sanchez $10, Rodon $25.

 

I'd drop Sanchez and find a different option, but even with him $70m is completely within possibilities. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They have a player who throws 100 MPH with two different nasty breaking balls. I think they should try putting Duran in the rotation. 

He was a starter in the minors for most of his career.  His track record there was not good.  It would be hard to see this happening.

I would like to see them continue to use him in high leverage BP outings.   Please, please, please do not saddle him as the closer (the most overrated position in baseball)

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm still predicting my gut feeling that Sonny Gray will request a trade out of the twins organization  ...

 

Considering the Twins used him perfectly and got the most out of him, it would be hard to see another organization use him differently.

Perfect example of not seeing the forest through the trees.  The Twins limited Gray's innings to when he would be most effective and it worked (regardless of Gray's complaining to the media).  Gray just needs to keep his head down and continue to pitch well for his next contract.