Revisiting The Josh Donaldson (Gio Urshela) Trade

[Cody Pirkl]

Last offseason the Twins made a shocking trade with the Yankees, parting with one of their highest paid players and their assumed future shortstop for a couple of pieces back. Now that we have a full season of data, it’s time to revisit.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins previous offseason was a flurry of surprising moves. A team that was typically pretty quiet and tame in terms of their acquisitions made several big trades in an attempt to return to relevance in the standings. Unfortunately, this didn’t come to fruition, but is it possible that parting with their starting third baseman and new shortstop actually better positioned them?

The Twins Trade Away Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Despite the remaining 2 years and $42m remaining on his contract, the Twins traded Donaldson to the Bronx last winter with whispers swirling that he had worn out his welcome. The former MVP played in 135 games in 2021, his most since his fantastic 2019, but still had modest results. Seeking to cleanse the clubhouse and avoid a potential drop off in production, this side of the Twins gamble worked. Donaldson continued causing issues in New York and he had his worst offensive year since 2012. He slashed .222/.308/.374, 3% below league average despite the harsh offensive environment. His defense did rebound and he stayed healthy for 132 games, but it’s safe to say the Twins are happy with this decision.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa wasn’t on the Twins long enough to even have jerseys made, having been acquired shortly before in the Mitch Garver deal. The assumed starting shortstop, IKF had a reputation as a gamer even though he lacked any standout skills. He had the kind of season you’d expect from the light-hitting infielder, slashing .261/.314/.327. As usual, his defense was good or bad depending on the metric. This pair being shipped out allowed the Twins to sign Correa, who undeniably provided significantly more value than their initial plan at shortstop. IKF wasn’t even the starting shortstop more often than not come playoff time for the Yankees, a testament to how this trade just did not work out for New York at all.

The Twins Receive Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela
Gary Sanchez had a strange year. The Yankees just didn’t want him behind the plate anymore regardless of his bat, so naturally he came to Minnesota and his skills behind the plate became his carrying tool. His .205/.282/.377 line was surprisingly bad, as his standout bat completely cratered but his framing and general defense was his boon. In other circumstances it’s possible Sanchez would have either lost significant playing time or not finish the season on the team. Injuries, however, had him starting near everyday. His struggles will likely cost him this winter, as it’s doubtful a team will suddenly see him as a plus-defender and it seems the Twins were left holding the bag on his offensive dropoff.

Gio Urshela was the prize of this deal. Similar to Kiner-Falefa, defensive metrics conflict on his value, but he routinely makes some eye-popping plays at the hot corner. His .285/.338/.429 slash line was a trip back to his 2019 and 2020 peak offensive seasons, both of which looked to be a product of the juiced ball and a shortened schedule. Sure enough however, Urshela was one of the Twins few bright spots down the stretch, and surely played himself into being tendered a contract for 2023. 

“Winning a trade” is all about opinion. Some argue the aggregate value tells the story, others like to be receiving the best player in the deal. In the Twins case, they won on both measures. Donaldson (1.6) and Kiner-Falefa (1.3) combined for 2.9 fWAR in comparison to Sanchez (1.3) and Urshela (2.4) equaling 3.7. If that wasn’t convincing enough, consider that Donaldson has another year remaining for $21m plus another $8M guaranteed in the form of a 2024 buyout. No longer a middle of the order bat and at increased risk for another injury, possible disaster looms for whatever team he’s on in 2023. IKF also has one remaining arbitration year, which is likely to either get non-tendered or traded after failing to nail down the shortstop job with several prospects on the horizon for the Yankees.

On the Twins end, they certainly could’ve done better than Gary Sanchez with the $9m he was paid, but that was the cost of doing business and he’s off their books moving forward. Urshela’s arbitration value will likely settle around $9-10m, a reasonable price if he approaches anything near his 2022 output. In both the 2022 season and moving forward, this deal has created headaches on the Yankees side while the Twins undoubtedly became a better team as a result. This is without even mentioning the door to the Correa signing that was opened.

Biases aside, it’s hard not to call this trade a win for the Twins. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that even Yankee fans would agree. There’s a chance this deal evens back out based on Donaldson’s or Kiner-Falefa’s performances in 2023, but there’s a better chance it gets even worse. Do you agree that this was a massive win for the Twins? Is it too early to make a determination? Let us know below!

 

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[old nurse]

The trade was addition by subtraction. Anything beyond that was a bonus. 

[mikelink45]

Moving the mistake called Donaldson was the plus and the reason the trade works.  Signing Correa is a different issue no matter how people want to shuffle the dollars.  Kiner Falefa would be the fill in SS this next year until Lewis is ready.  Urshela was a definite plus, Sanchez is gone.  Their combined salaries subtracted from Donaldson did not leave us a big surplus to sign anyone.

Would our winning pct have changed with Donaldson or without Correa?

[Mark G]

Trade turned out alright.  I really like Urshella; a good player, a good guy in the dugout, and he stayed healthy on a team that needed that more than any stat the computer can spit out.  I hope they keep him around for a while.  Sanchez on the other hand............

Overall, at least for the 1st year in hindsight, an A-.

[Major League Ready]

On 10/22/2022 at 7:13 AM, old nurse said:

The trade was addition by subtraction. Anything beyond that was a bonus. 

My memory might be off but I recall quite a few people who insisted we got worse at 3B and Catcher.  I think their hope (the FO) was basically to break even on the short-term production (talent) and get rid of Donaldson's contract.  I think Mark G has the grade about right.  B+/A- for 2022.  However, 2022 is not likely the best part of this trade.   They are now in a FAR better position for 23 than they would have been keeping Donaldson.  In 2024 the benefit is likely an additional $8M they would have paid to cut him.

[The Mad King]

What if...

What happens to Miranda if the trade had never been made and Donaldson had a good year? 

Another way the twins won today trade...

[Doctor Gast]

I don't trust most defensive metrics, through all the fanangling around our catching depth took a hugh hit. But I say we won the deal mainly because it opened the door for us to get Correa and 2nd Urshella was a dependable piece which we utilized.

IKF is a very good SS and a good hitter, the fact that he's not a slugger shouldn't have any bearing on this premium position. The reason NYY moved on from IKF IMO, is that they have 2 SS prospects that they are very high on.  IKF was just a safety net they chose not to fully utilize.

Rortvedt was hurt so he never really figured in your analysis. But if we don't land Correa this off season, I'd like to get both IKF & Rortvedt back in a trade.

[weitz41]

Well if we can't beat them in the playoffs at least we won this trade.

I agree with Doctor Gast: "But if we don't land Correa this off season, I'd like to get both IKF & Rortvedt back in a trade."

[Linus]

The trade shouldn’t have been required. The Donaldson signing was a huge mistake so I’m sure as heck not going to credit the FO for cleaning up their mess. 

[PDX Twin]

Quote

Gio Urshela was the prize of this deal. Similar to Kiner-Falefa, defensive metrics conflict on his value,

Someone inclined toward mathematics might call it a Gio-metric paradox.

[jorgenswest]

51 minutes ago, Linus said:

The trade shouldn’t have been required. The Donaldson signing was a huge mistake so I’m sure as heck not going to credit the FO for cleaning up their mess. 

Seems like a success to me. Fangraphs valued him at 30.4 million for his two years with the Twins and with his 2020 salary prorated they paid him a little less than that for his two years. On top of that they moved him as part of a deal for players that were valuable to the Twins last year. I do give them credit for getting value out of Donaldson and moving him before his value crashed.

I was wrong on the Donaldson deal being a disaster. I hope Paddack proves me wrong on the Rogers deal too. They certainly sold high on Rogers. They also appear to have sold high on Berrios.

[Blyleven2011]

The trade ....

Did the twins win the trade , I don't really care ...

It did get donalsons attitude out of the clubhouse and urshela was a above average defender at 3rd base in my eyes and he had a better average in 2022 than Donaldson  ...

In comes Correa after dumping the salary of Donaldson and his leadership and attitude  helped the clubhouse  ...

Yes it was a mistake to sign Donaldson after the 2019 bomba squad  and the money should have been towards an ace , stud , bulldog pitcher ...

The money is wiped clean with the trade and Correa opting out  , so now go out and get that pitching ace and a bullpen arm ...

The twins did save some money by trading donaldsons contract in the long term and signing Correa to 1 year contract ...

[PatPfund]

The deal should look even better next year. Especially if the Falvines dangle a 40-man bubble candidate like Enlow, and have IKF as their stopgap SS in '23. (Legit, if not spectacular, MLB glove and bat, and the ability to play all over including catcher if/when an in-house candidate proves ready to be the regular SS.)

[Rosterman]

Ironic if IKF would be non-tendered and the Twins could sign him as a stop-gap. Plus, he could be a decent utility guy for another season or two.

Donaldson's salary ws nice to jettison. Urshela was a competent caretaker for third, so much so I would bring him back in 2023 for his decent price and rotate him with Miranda/Arraez between 1B/3B/DH, for now.

The trade also ties into the one with the Rangers, as Garver was replaced by Sanchez. Happily Sanchez stayed healthy. I can live with a weak hitting catcher (or a player at one position) as someone has to make the outs. Sanchez would swing and miss waaaay too much. What I dreaded most was him and Sano coming to the plate in the same inning with predictable results. Sano not being around helped.

The other pieces in these trades were a bonus to the Twins. Rortvedt never cracked the Yankees roster (although he did get some major league pay for no play). Unless the Yankees are desparate and don't "buy" a catcher, he will continue on at AAA ball and either get designated for assignment or eventually become a minor league free agent. I love Rortvedt, as he has the makings of being a first-rate defender (shades of names like Sal Butera and Phil Roof). With those weight-lifting arms, one would expect power...of course that only happens if the bat meets the ball. I would keep on top of his status for possible catching depth and a gamble to see if he does improve...still.

Rnny Henriquez is the bonus in the deal. A very young pitcher who broke onto the Twins roster at season end. He shows he can be a good long man. The question is: do you give him another partial season at AAA as a rotation arm. Spring training will show. But I like his chances of staying as a bullpen option in the Twins pen come 2023.

[Brandon]

This trade was a bust.  If Donaldson hadn’t worn out his welcome here, he clearly would have easily hit 30 HRs with a .350 OBP.  Isaeh would have been a contender for a GG at SS for us.  How could you view that as anything but a failure for us?   

[Wizard11]

The trade was a clear win for the Twins thru any reasonable lens.  I know it just kills some fans to say anything good about this FO.  This FO has made their share of sketchy moves.  This was not one of them.  Without a bias of finding fault with everything “FO”, it is pretty hard not to see this trade as a win.

[beckmt]

I like the thought of IKF being signed if non-tendered.  Good stopgap for the next year.  Hopefully one of the prospects should be ready for 2024.  Also clears up money to buy pitching.  That is a good thing.

[ashbury]

The trade made sense at the time even if Donaldson had done well.  As events came out, it's just icing on the cake.

Only thing I didn't like was throwing in Rortvedt.  I don't like giving up pitching, but I think I'd have preferred the sweetener be a young lottery ticket arm than him.  Better would have been a corner bat like Sabato, but that kind of hope is pretty vain these days.

[Spth]

If the trade did not happen, then we would not have signed Correa. Then Lewis would have been our starting SS by July and he would not have gotten injured in centerfield. 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

When the trade first occurred I gave it a D because I felt that Donaldson would hit and field better than Urshella and I thought Sanchez was a butcher defensively and was all or nothing at the plate like Sano.

Urshella surprised me with some outstanding defense and a good hitting line, better at both than Donaldson at a far lesser price.  Sanchez also surprised me with his defense although poor compared to Rortvet.  I'm sure he worked hard during the off season knowing this was his walk year.

And as Rosterman says, Henriquez is icing on the cake.

I now give this trade A- to B+.