Twins Trade Candidate: Emilio Pagan

[Cody Christie]

Little went right for Emilio Pagan in his first season with the Twins. With other pitchers returning, is it time to find a team willing to take on Pagan?

Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. 

What Did He Do in 2022? 
Minnesota acquired Emilio Pagan shortly before last year's Opening Day. Minnesota's bullpen was shaping up to have Taylor Rogers as the anchor, but that plan shifted when the Twins sent Rogers to San Diego for Pagan and Chris Paddack. On the surface, it was easy to see the long-term value in the deal because Pagan and Paddack were both under contract for multiple seasons. However, the trade timing was tough to understand, and things couldn't have gone much worse from the Twins' point of view. 

Paddack looked great to start the year but quickly suffered an arm injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery. The Twins put Pagan into a prominent late-inning role, and he struggled for most of the season. He posted a 5.23 ERA in the first half with a 1.38 WHIP while allowing eight home runs in 32 2/3 innings. His ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.35) dropped in the second half, but the Twins moved him to a lower-leverage role. Since leaving Tampa Bay in 2019, Pagan has yet to post an above-average OPS+, and he has struggled to keep the ball in the park (1.9 HR/9). There is a reason San Diego looked for a new closer, and now the Twins may be trying to pass on Pagan. 

Why is He a Trade Candidate?
Bullpen depth can be tough to evaluate because of how volatile performances can be on a year-to-year basis. Tyler Duffey was arguably one of baseball's best relievers for multiple seasons before his performance declined significantly. That being said, the Twins have many options to consider for the 2023 bullpen. Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar will continue to serve in late-inning roles. Younger arms like Cole Sands and Jovani Moran may move into more prominent roles. Multiple players are also returning from injury, including Jorge Alcala and Cody Stashak. Minnesota's front office might decide Pagan isn't needed compared to the other bullpen options. 

What is His Trade Value?
Pagan is heading into his final arbitration season and is projected to make roughly $3.7 million. That is a reasonable contract for a pitcher with late-inning experience, but there are no guarantees with Pagan's performance. His stuff and strikeout numbers make it easy to see why teams viewed him as a viable late-inning relief option. If the Twins decide to trade him, they may need to send some money to pay down his 2023 contract, and this can allow the team to get a low-level prospect in return. Pagan hurt the Twins in 2022, and moving to a new team may help him to get his career back on track. 

Last winter, the Twins had an option on Alex Colome, whose Twins tenure resembled Pagan's. He pitched poorly in the first half before turning it around in the second half. Minnesota decided it was better to cut their losses and move on from Colome. This situation seems similar in that the team and player might be better served if Pagan is no longer on the Twins. 

Do you think the Twins can get anything back for Pagan? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
Gio Urshela

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[cHawk]

I would like to see the Twins get something for Pagan. Although, I’m not sure who would be willing to trade for him. He was rough this year.

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, cHawk said:

I would like to see the Twins get something for Pagan. Although, I’m not sure who would be willing to trade for him. He was rough this year.

He hasn't been good for several years. My guess is that he is a non-tender when arbitration salaries must be submitted. Pagan's body of work reminds me of Hansel Robles. Good fastball, but not enough of a secondary pitch combined with questionable command. 

[DJL44]

A bucket of baseballs. Not even new ones, the grey looking ones in the back of the equipment closet.

[Doctor Gast]

 Everyone passed up on Paddack & Pagan last year, any doubt that anyone might have had before were cleared up with the Twins. Paddack wasn't remotely great with us, he hadn't really contributed anything this year & will contribute very little in '23. Although some team might take a chance on Pagan but they won't give up anything for him.

[Linus]

My guess is the Twins will try to trade before arb deadline. If they can’t non- tender. 

[chpettit19]

54 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Everyone passed up on Paddack & Pagan last year, any doubt that anyone might have had before were cleared up with the Twins. Paddack wasn't remotely great with us, he hadn't really contributed anything this year & will contribute very little in '23. Although some team might take a chance on Pagan but they won't give up anything for him.

His 3 starts before his injury were 5 innings 2 earned, 5.2 innings 1 earned, and 5.1 innings 1 earned. That's a 2.25 ERA. "Wasn't even remotely great" seems to be ignoring 3 or his 4 healthy starts being pretty darn great. The injury was brutal, but I think his on field performance shows the Twins were likely right about his talent. And a look at his full season results would suggest the Twins really didn't give up much in trading Rogers for him. Clearing Rooker's 40 man spot was actually quite useful in that deal as well.

[wsnydes]

No idea if he's worth anything on the trade market, but he can't remain on this roster for next year.  It's time to move on whether they can deal him or not.

[Otaknam]

Trade Pagan if they can or dfa. Another season of him would be too much to take. 

[Doctor Gast]

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

His 3 starts before his injury were 5 innings 2 earned, 5.2 innings 1 earned, and 5.1 innings 1 earned. That's a 2.25 ERA. "Wasn't even remotely great" seems to be ignoring 3 or his 4 healthy starts being pretty darn great. The injury was brutal, but I think his on field performance shows the Twins were likely right about his talent. And a look at his full season results would suggest the Twins really didn't give up much in trading Rogers for him. Clearing Rooker's 40 man spot was actually quite useful in that deal as well.

Agreed clearing Rooker was a good overdue move. But Paddack's 4.03 era isn't great, his last 4 starts were against KC, DET, BAL (before they got hot) & OAK.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed clearing Rooker was a good overdue move. But Paddack's 4.03 era isn't great, his last 4 starts were against KC, DET, BAL (before they got hot) & OAK.

Paddack faced 3 bad offenses and dominated them exactly like you'd want him to do. Just pointing to his 4.03 ERA is disingenuous. He made 4 healthy starts. 1 bad, 3 great. Small sample size makes that 1 stand out a lot. I'm not saying he would've won the Cy Young, but acting like he did nothing successful during his very brief healthy 2022 stint is ignoring the reality of his performances.

[DocBauer]

Trade Pagan? That Randball Stu sure has a great sense of humor doesn't he?

Wait...we're being serious here? He has something like the worst WPA over 3yrs in MLB and the highest ERA with 50 IP or more over the same time frame. I'm at least close on those numbers. 

Striking out 3 or 4 of 6 batters faces sounds great until you realize there was hit, walk, and 3 run HR that just blew three game. 

If someone actually believes they can do something with him, more power to them, send the Twins a decent A ball flier or some international signing $. Otherwise, PLEASE Twins FO, just let go. Stop falling in love with re-treads and stubbornly giving them chance after chance. Just let go and move on.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

He hasn't been good for several years. My guess is that he is a non-tender when arbitration salaries must be submitted. Pagan's body of work reminds me of Hansel Robles. Good fastball, but not enough of a secondary pitch combined with questionable command. 

This is exactly correct. Trade him if you can but release him if there are not any takers. Same with Paddack.

[weitz41]

I have to admit Padres fans have to be enjoying seeing him on our roster.

I'm going to go against the grain though and say we keep him. 1st off the FO doesn't spend on the bull pen. So Pagan's projected 3 mil salary for 2023 is in line with what they MAY spend on a fixer upper they'd pick up if not for him. 2nd I can't think of any trades at the moment the FO has thrown up the white flag and moved on from. And finally no one is going to part with much more then a lottery ticket or two for him. Then they sign another Joe Smith...What's that saying...Better the devil you know then the devil you don't.

Another thought if not for the trade that sent Pagan and others to us we would have had Rooker on our 40 man likely all season. I can't help but think that would have affected Gordon's playing time and possibly Miranda's call up. If you think that made a difference, We won that trade just on that alone. Whether Pagan's poor performance cost us games or not those two made up for it and much more.

[Brandon]

He did pitch better down the stretch.  If he is willing to take instruction, I am ok with giving him a flyer contract.  if not he should be let go.  What he is doing isnt working.  and not taking advice at this point is asking to be released.  

[ashbury]

What they'd receive in trade would be a player the other team was preparing to discard anyway.  Which IMO is how the Twins acquired Pagan from the Padres in the first place.

DFA.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

What they'd receive in trade would be a player the other team was preparing to discard anyway.  Which IMO is how the Twins acquired Pagan from the Padres in the first place.

DFA.

If the Twins are rostering Pagan next year. They better be right.

The past two years equal two strikes. Pagan better choke up for this next appearance.    

[jorgenswest]

Would he get more as a free agent than 3.7 million? 

Last year the three one year contracts nearest that range were Adam Ottavino(4), Archie Bradley(3.75) and David Robertson(3.5). Two were dominant and the other injured.

Seems like the smart move is to see what 3.7 million buys in free agency. Why give up a player and pay Pagán?

BTV nailed his trade value. 0.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Package deal; Pagan, Sano and Rocco. Something to build a team around; pitcher, slugger, manager. Not necessary to give us anything of immediate value in return as we're just interested in starting a rebuilding team, hopefully somebody in our division, off on the right foot. You know, in the name of improving competition.

[Linus]

Yea now that I think of it I don’t even want the player they could get in trade unless it was a total low A flyer

[TwinsChupacabra]

I like the idea of dumping Pagan, Sano, Rocco.  Addition by subtraction!!  Too bad it couldn't happen. 

[Rosterman]

They go ahead and sign him. But if he starts having a bad spring can they cut him and just have to pay x-amount?

Sadly, Rooker would've been a 40-man casuality with the Twins. That he got time with both the Padres and the Royals was good-for-him! But does he still warrant a 40-man for the struggling Kansas City team?

The killer was the Twins still paying Rogers salary. How would've Rogers fit in the Twins 2022 bullpen? Be interesting to see what Taylor commands as a free agent.

Pagan is still cheap. He could be a trade chip. As someone said, better to spend money on a known than buy an outsider like, say, Joe Smith, Hansel Robles or Alex Colombe! The Twins still have some questions. Will they keep Stashak, Coulombe, Megill? Is Sisk a posibility? Will Sands and Henriquez be bullpen arms, or given a chance to start in the minors (as well as Winder). What is the future status of Enlow.

My pain is watching the Twins deal out $3-4 million for a player and then feeling they have to give them a long leash.

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Paddack faced 3 bad offenses and dominated them exactly like you'd want him to do. Just pointing to his 4.03 ERA is disingenuous. He made 4 healthy starts. 1 bad, 3 great. Small sample size makes that 1 stand out a lot. I'm not saying he would've won the Cy Young, but acting like he did nothing successful during his very brief healthy 2022 stint is ignoring the reality of his performances.

Cody's comment was general so I gave my general opinion, he wasn't talking about 3 specific games where he pitched 5 quality innings, if he had, I'd say I'd be pleased. But many would say if were let's say Bundy "he only pitch 5 innings, what a bum". I'm not saying that you are of this camp because that'd be calling you an hyporcrite. My gripe is that Bundy gave us a season full of 5+ quality innings games, where Paddack gave us only 3.

And I'm not faulting Paddack. It was common knowledge that Paddack had a "fragile" arm that's why good teams avoided him. Having a fragile arm, you can't use him as a SP. You have to profile him as a opener or long relief keeping him under 5 innings and that is what I advocated. Maybe then he could give us many more quality innings as SD was selling us.

Maybe you are a part  of the Bundy Bashers, still I wouldn't call you a hypocrite. I'd say you are a victim of "hype" both positive & negative. Persuaded by hype & spun data. I try to avoid the hype, try to take into account underlining conditions & see things the way they are.

[old nurse]

6 hours ago, Rosterman said:

They go ahead and sign him. But if he starts having a bad spring can they cut him and just have to pay x-amount?

Sadly, Rooker would've been a 40-man casuality with the Twins. That he got time with both the Padres and the Royals was good-for-him! But does he still warrant a 40-man for the struggling Kansas City team?

The killer was the Twins still paying Rogers salary. How would've Rogers fit in the Twins 2022 bullpen? Be interesting to see what Taylor commands as a free agent.

Pagan is still cheap. He could be a trade chip. As someone said, better to spend money on a known than buy an outsider like, say, Joe Smith, Hansel Robles or Alex Colombe! The Twins still have some questions. Will they keep Stashak, Coulombe, Megill? Is Sisk a posibility? Will Sands and Henriquez be bullpen arms, or given a chance to start in the minors (as well as Winder). What is the future status of Enlow.

My pain is watching the Twins deal out $3-4 million for a player and then feeling they have to give them a long leash.

Rogers lost the lead in 10 games this year. That kind of production would have netted the Twins a better draft pick

[Murph]

The concise answer to your quesiton:  No.

[Whitey333]

Just dump pagan.  Considering how many games he blew last year, keeping him would send a terrible message to the fans that pay major league prices to watch a minor league team.  That trade with San Diego was curious from the start with the timing and knowing Paddock already had one Tommy John surgery.  But agreeing to pay Rogers salary on top of getting a couple of stiffs shows very poor judgement by the FO, at least in this case.  DUMP PAGAN!!

[Blyleven2011]

Here's a theory  ....

Dfa pagan and because no one in there right mind would sign him to a major league contract as a free agent , 

Then the twins could re-sign the very talented ( so they think )  pagan to a minor league contract  ...

I say good bye Ron Davis  ....

That's my plan and I'm sticking to it  ...

[Old fox]

After the deal,the season is over everyone has perfect solution to solve the problem. After reading the comments it seems like the Twins if they traded for Cole,  signed Judge, Verlander, Buehler, Correa that the Twins would lose a 162 games in 2023. I don’t go to baseball games to count dollars. I go to baseball games to watch players perform well and as a team. I tend to forget there are 930 baseball players in the mlb and they are all completely different from one another. I will pay good dollars to watch a team with good players perform well but I refuse to pay or go to a game to watch poor players perform poorly because they lack ability or their riding off into the sunset. Let’s go Twins you can do it in2023.

[saviking]

I'd take a bag of potato chips for Pagan ...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Pagan is the type of pitcher with good stuff that can't seem to make it work.  Coaches think they can "fix" guys like this, which is why they get so many chances.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if he went somewhere and lit it up next year.