Why Would the Twins Pay Anyone but Carlos Correa?

[DocBauer]

31 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If money is going to be such a big impediment every year then Correa doesn't fit. If the budget is up to around $150 million for 2023, Correa fits. I would like to see the Twins have Correa at shortstop.

My primary concern is that the Twins become more skilled on defense and more athletic overall. While Correa is a plodder, he does know how to run the bases and his presence would allow our Lewis, Martin, Lee group to grow into the game.

There are players to trade or drop that would pare back the dollars by quite a bit. I don't expect Falvey to part with players he has added. In fact, i would be surprised. I am just a fan though and would not miss all of Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddack, Pagan, and Lopez. These players in addition to a couple others (Arraez, Jeffers, Larnach) could bring back something depending on whether there are any teams having an interest. I expect the team will return mostly intact and judging from many comments this is a preference from fans too.

Correa seems like a reasonable bet for six decent and two declining seasons. So 9/290 might be the number.

Absolutely  agree with the first part of this post very much. Not so much in agreement with the thought of trading away some of the younger players listed as I think they remain part of the future as well as being inexpensive.

As to the OP, no, it makes no sense to go after any of the other top FA SS for many reasons. CC should be the guy if they are going to do it. I've never had a problem moving Lewis to another position. Always thought it was a silly arguement that a very talented player was "wasted" by moving them to a less demanding defensive position. Who cares if a guy could be a really good SS, but you have someone better or as good there, so you move the other player to 3B or 2B. So you have an elite player at a spot other than SS? And this arguement has been made in the past, and I just don't understand it. I mean, the Yankees were pretty good and won a whole bunch of games, even a couple of WS IIRC, keeping their HOF SS in his natural spot and placing Rodriguez at 3B. Oh, what a waste! Lol

The truth is the Twins CAN afford to keep Correa at SS and thr books are clean enough to do so. The truth is the Twins have a lot of young talent reasonably priced or cheap now, and a couple just getting their feet wet. The truth is there are several veterans who CAN be off the books in 2024, but not saying all will be or should be. But there is financial flexibility now, as well as the near future.

IF the Twins are going to make a move like this, it's the perfect time.

I object to the idea the Twins don't have some potential star players on hand. A healthy Polanco is about as good as it gets, same with Buxton when reasonably healthy. Unfortunately, they have a LARGE group of POSSIBLE star players who have had setbacks in their development. But there are some damn fine looking players just ready to break out, if healthy.

So I agree that IF the Twins are going to go all in, now is the time. I still have reservations that ONE GUY can make that much of a difference. He could, if the rest of the team around him is as good as the rest of the Twins roster could be if we can just get everyone on the field and playing to their potential.

Is CC's potential $ better spent elsewhere? Maybe. I've been torn on this. Both sides of the debate are right, spend BIG, or save and spend AROUND both work if the plan of action goes according to plan. CC is affordable. Keeping him makes the most sense if the Twins push the 2023 payroll to $150M in order to make a couple other additions. (With $ coming off the books again next year).  It turns out bad if they don't augment, and everyone stays hurt, and the prospects just don't turn out as good as hoped for. (Not all of them).

IMO, BOTH sides of this intelligent debate are right. Keep CC...a star talent which you need...and spend a little more SMARTLY, to augment with $ coming off the future books and keep developing your young talent. OR, trust in that young talent and spend the CC $ throught the roster to make the TEAM better as a WHOLE. 

I'd like to see Correa remain a Twin and push the 2023 payroll, knowing your books are POTENTIALLY still relatively clean in 2024, IF you develop and trust your young talent. I understand full well his last couple of years will PROBABLY make him an expensive bench player, or a 2B with someone else taking over SS. But common sense for a mid market team has to be "how much can we expect to BURN financially his last few years?"

My answer is 2yrs. And who knows how the market is going to work! My answer to a re-sign is 7 or 8 years for about $260-280 MAX. That's about $33M per. I'd even suggest front loading the first few years by a couple of $M, just to keep the last couple of year more financially flexible for the rest of the roster, even though, hypothetically, revenues and payroll will rise. To me. That's still a little steep. I'd rather see 7-8 at around $250M but not going to quibble. Considering the Twins ARE mid market, I'm not going to be upset if they "finish second" on a deal like this. 

I WILL be upset if the FO just drags their feet for months on end waiting to see how things turn out and ignore other options. The WORST thing the FO can do is nothing while sitting around the campfire and just being overly patient. There's still a season to be played and the constructs of a potentially pretty good team for that season.

[jorgenswest]

54 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The Cardinals average about $75M more in revenue as compared to the twins.  They have done a great job acquiring the right "big names" with the huge revenue of the biggest markets.  So, give them credit but they can cover a couple big contracts with the incremental revenue they have beyond the twins revenue.   In other words, if the Twins had another $75m in revenue I would be saying they should sign Correa.

I did look revenue up. For 2021 the Cardinals were 287 and Twins 268. I thought that was reasonably close. Statista was my source. Would the gap narrow if the Twins had a longer stretch of success to rebuild a season ticket base? 

[PatPfund]

By WAR, Correa just had one of his best seasons. Yet the Twins were best when he struggled (and was injured), and they were the worst team in baseball down the stretch when he played his best. Houston was the best team in the AL regular season, and is one of two remaining in the AL post-season race, and they did it without Correa. Texas locked down the other top SS FAs last off-season, and missed the playoffs. As did Boston after signing Trevor Story.

What all of this says to me is that the Twins have many more needs than Correa can fix, and if they sign him, they'll be going the cheap recycled parts again to fix the other problems, and we all know where that got us this year. It also says that big ticket shortstops in general are nice, but not at all necessary to make the playoffs or win the title.

So don't waste money on an "elite" SS, but use the money instead to sign an ace pitcher. Sign Wilson Contreras. Sign a Benintendi or Haniger. Get a cheap glove-first SS. And maybe next year in the playoffs (with the requisite health and luck) a super-rich Correa can interview the new kid (or Lewis) after our first playoff win in two decades (the way he signed for big coin this year, but had time to interview the new kid in Houston).

[mikelink45]

14 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

as they say: "Let's go to the video tape!"

Carlos Correa OPS by month:

• Mar/Apr .633
• May .884
• June 1.012
• July .614
• Aug .776
• Sept/Oct 1.001

Doesn't look like he waited for the end of the year to buff his stats, his best month was actually June. His 3rd best was May. He finished the year at a 140 OPS+ which is absolutely stellar, and the best on the club (sorry, Royce: 12 games doesn't qualify you). First half OPS: .803, Second half .866. (I'm also fairly convinced that if he had tailed off at the end of the season, a segment of the fanbase would have trashed him for not coming through late in the year when we "needed him" or something)

Houston bet on a young player they had developed and it worked out for them. If Royce Lewis had finished the season healthy, I suspect the twins would be making the same bet...but he's not. He's having another knee surgery. I love the kid, and I root for him, but he's got another barrier up and Correa is as close to a sure thing as I've seen.

I'd rather bet long term deals on position players than pitchers. and Correa is exactly the kind of guy I'd push my chips in for. Truly great player, plays a premium position, has skills that will age well, and appears to have every intangible you could ask for.

OK - we disagree.  His play got us to .481 and 3rd place.  Where would we have been without him?

[mikelink45]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Angels are worse at building a pitching staff than the Twins. That's all anyone needs to know about why they can't win.

Yes, Pena was good. Not claiming he wasn't. But their willingness to take a chance on the rookie being good was because they had a great team around him. Much of his WAR came from his defense, though. In my experience, you don't even find a majority of people who work in analytics who believe the defensive stats should be taken as gospel. Pena was almost exactly a league average hitter. His OPS+ was 101. Correa's was 140. Slight difference there, no?

"Salary push for the end of the season" is a nonsense, not even remotely based in reality argument. You think he waited until September and then was like "dang, I guess it's time to start trying now so I can get my $350 mil?" That's complete and utter nonsense. No player does that. 

I've never, not even once, suggested the Twins can't afford to lose him. But the facts of the situation is that you need stars to win. The Twins are not developing their own. But they have developed a bunch of guys who look to be solid major league regulars. Since they've built nearly an entire 26 man roster of major league regulars who are on well below market deals they can afford to sign Correa. And a pitcher. Why would any fan of the team not want them to spend money to improve the team? What do they gain by not signing Correa? He wasn't "average" for the majority of the season. In fact his OPS+ was above 130 for almost all of it. That's well above average. He did struggle in the clutch moments like the rest of the roster, I will grant that.

But this isn't about "have to," it's about how else do you improve this team so they can actually win a playoff game? Signing a star who you can more than afford seems like a pretty reasonable way to improve the team. The point of having a steady stream of major league regulars developed by your own system on cheap deals is so that you can afford to sign the stars. They have a star. They have a bunch of regulars on cheap deals. If this isn't the time you want to sign a star there literally never will be a time. There aren't enough holes on the roster to need to go out and sign a bunch of mid-level guys. Sign a stud starting pitcher and a stud SS and let's play ball. They can afford it and have the players on the rest of the roster to be able to win some games. If you disagree you should be suggesting they trade everyone on the roster and start a full on rebuild. Trade Buxton, Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Miranda, Duran, all of them.

The Guardians had one star and great pitching and great defense.  They got to the playoffs and even won two against the Yankees.  Correa was not going to carry the team and we would have been in the same place in the standings without him.  Maybe signing pitchers who are not ready for the IL might be a better strategy.

 

[jmlease1]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

OK - we disagree.  His play got us to .481 and 3rd place.  Where would we have been without him?

That's a team failure not an individual one. We landed in 3rd and finished below .500 because we had the second-most games lost to injuries in baseball and fielded a lineup that had too many AAA players who aren't MLB caliber or were washed up veterans in the 2nd half. But that argument is one that applies to any single player in baseball; if the team is bad, one player doesn't make much difference. Taking Correa off the team probably doesn't land us in 4th, but it does mean we're not as competitive as we were for as long as we were.

But I don't think you're arguing against the Twins having good players or signing talented ones, it just seems like you don't think Correa is really a star player and worth a big salary, and that opinion seems based on feel, not stats & production.

[Launch Angle]

16 hours ago, mac098 said:

Yes, we aren't in the same category as the NY teams or LA teams, but we should be able to compete with the Phil's, Braves, and Guardians, all 3 of which made the playoffs. The Pohlad's are cheap and we know it. They want to be able to win a WS with a minimum payroll roster. 

What defines mega Contract? Is it years, salary, or a combination? Because the Twins went pretty expensive with Joe Mauer's contract many years ago. So, ultimately it falls on the Twins to sign their players to friendly contracts as soon as they can. They need to stop beating around the bush and start insuring their future. 

But as far as missing the point of this point. I did not. Every team has every capability of signing all players. Its just a matter of opening the checkbook and going from there. If it means a few years of success with increased prices at the stadium, I would be okay with that. Because players would actually want to come here at that point. Success breeds Success. 

The Phillies had the 4th highest payroll this year, we're not able compete with that. Outside of Jose Ramirez (less than Mauers still), The Guardians aren't giving out mega large contracts on their books. 

Yes the Pohlad's may be cheap but that's always been the case, as fans we just have to deal with that. There's more than one way to build a winner and for small to mid market teams it's not by giving a single player a huge long term contract that will hurt the team down the road once they stop producing. The Rays, Guardians and Athletics have consistently made the playoffs without handing out mega contracts. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

The Guardians had one star and great pitching and great defense.  They got to the playoffs and even won two against the Yankees.  Correa was not going to carry the team and we would have been in the same place in the standings without him.  Maybe signing pitchers who are not ready for the IL might be a better strategy.

 

If you don't believe that 9 or 10 of Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, Moran, Thielbar, Varland, Winder, and SWR can get outs in the playoffs you should be suggesting the Twins blow it up and start over. If you don't think 9 or 10 of Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Urshela, Buxton, Celestino, Gordon, Kepler, Kirillloff, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and Lee are good enough for regular playoff playing time you should be suggesting the Twins blow it up. That's 29 players. How many do you think are good enough to make a postseason roster?

I believe Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, and Moran would be worthy of postseason roster spots with Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, and Lopez being amongst the 10 guys I'd want on my postseason staff getting almost all of the innings. To me that means they need 3 more big time arms for a postseason run. 1 being a starter in front of Gray, Ryan, and Mahle (I've already said multiple times Rodon would be my choice, even though he has some injury concern). The other 2 would be pen arms that slot in above Jax, Lopez, and Maeda (he'd be a pen arm for me in October), but below Duran. At least 1 of them would have to be a lefty. I haven't looked at the FA reliever lists so don't know who I'd look at there. Do you feel like the Twins have more or less than 7 postseason level pitchers on the current roster?

I believe Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Urshela, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach are postseason roster worthy. I think Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Buxton, and Kirilloff are good enough to start in playoff games. That's 7 position players. To me there's an OF spot (maybe Larnach could claim it, but I'm not 100% sold on him yet) and SS open (I'd put Lewis at 3B where I think he'd be a gold glover). Do you feel the Twins have more or less than 7 postseason level position players on the current roster?

That's really the point here. How many holes do you see the Twins as having to fill? Because I feel they have so few, and that there's a handful of internal options who may actually step up and claim them, I think they can afford to finally bring in a superstar on a big deal. I think their current major and minor league rosters moving forward can account for almost all of the needs. If you disagree then it's time to blow it up cuz they can't build an entire roster through free agency and trades. If you agree with my general assessment of the current Twins organization then why wouldn't you want them to bring in both Correa and Rodon, plus a couple relievers? They can afford it. It's not a budget issue. What reason do they have to not bring in both if they don't have a ton of holes to fill?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Maybe signing pitchers who are not ready for the IL might be a better strategy.

If any organization in baseball could figure out which pitchers were going to get injured and which ones would stay healthy they would be a perennial contender.

I have seen a lot of people saying the Twins should sign "pitching" instead of Correa. The elite arms available this offseason are deGrom and Verlander. Next tier down is Rodon, Kershaw and Bassitt. Only Bassitt looks like a pitcher who will avoid the IL. Then you have Severino and Syndergaard who are both not as good after TJ surgery.

After looking at that group I'd much rather give a long-term contract to Correa. In fact, out of all the available free agents the only players I'd go 7-8 seasons on a contract are Judge, Correa and Trea Turner.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

23 hours ago, DJL44 said:

So your argument is Twins fans are too stupid so they shouldn't ever pursue top talent.

Well that's a pretty big leap from my argument.  Looking to incite are you?

Anybody want to go back and look at the Twins Daily discussions over the last year's of Joe's contract?  They weren't about a post-concussion Mauer still providing value even though the contract was sunk money, they were mostly about his contract being an albatross.

The argument is that pursuing top talent on a mega-contract comes with a built in understanding that over the last few years of the deal. the player's AAV will not be meeting the contract.  The potential financial fallout is the risk determined at the time of signing.  The negative public perception is commonplace.  While many FO will kick the can down the road, (if anything) this FO has shown to be methodical in it's decisions.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

22 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think you're spot on with what will probably happen in terms of an offer. My guess is that he turns it down, signs for 8-10 years at 340m, and that the placeholder is Elvis Andrus on a 1 yr/6-8m deal. 

Andrus is probably the perfect placeholder.  Decent veteran that can hold the spot if Lewis takes longer to recover.  Could look to spin him at the deadline if Lewis is ready or the Twins are out of contention.

Only downside is Andrus provides zero positional flexibility.  He is 100% SS. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Anybody want to go back and look at the Twins Daily discussions over the last year's of Joe's contract?  They weren't about a post-concussion Mauer still providing value even though the contract was sunk money, they were mostly about his contract being an albatross.

They were wrong. Mauer's contract didn't prevent this team from doing anything.

Wolves and Vikings fans don't want the team to spend as little as possible. I don't know what this obsession is with Twins fans to want to save the Pohlads money. Any player who makes more than league minimum is someone who needs to be traded for someone cheaper. They will have revenues between $250 and $300M next season. They can afford a $200M payroll if they want. San Diego has a much smaller market than the Twins and they can afford Manny Machado.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They were wrong. Mauer's contract didn't prevent this team from doing anything.

Wolves and Vikings fans don't want the team to spend as little as possible. I don't know what this obsession is with Twins fans to want to save the Pohlads money. Any player who makes more than league minimum is someone who needs to be traded for someone cheaper. They will have revenues between $250 and $300M next season. They can afford a $200M payroll if they want. San Diego has a much smaller market than the Twins and they can afford Manny Machado.

I am not arguing your point, you are actually helping mine.

It is hard to complain about salary with the Wolves and Vikings.  The Vikings/NFL has a hard cap.  The Wolves/NBA basically has a hard cap except for retaining their own players.

It is public knowledge the Twins spend a certain percentage of revenue on player salaries.  Agree or not, that is the world we live in and the team we root for.  As I have stated many times, the Pohlads treat the Twins as a business.  As such, decisions are not generally made on wins or losses, but based on finance.

Pohlad and the Twins can afford to spend more money, they choose not to.

FWIW, anybody who questions how cash flow affects teams should really check out this article:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

The simple answer to your question is YES, it's always better to sign the player you know than one you do not know and have not seen close up.

IF they do sign CC4, then I'd prefer a front-end loaded contract with less on the back end.  That would be fair to both parties related to his contribution assuming that he digresses.  It also would reduce/eliminate the fan yelling at the end of the contract like what happened with Joe Mauer.

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

IF they do sign CC4, then I'd prefer a front-end loaded contract with less on the back end.  That would be fair to both parties related to his contribution assuming that he digresses.  It also would reduce/eliminate the fan yelling at the end of the contract like what happened with Joe Mauer.

Dave St. Peter should overrule if they try to front load the contract. It's a terrible business decision. Would you be willing to give up $1M just to keep the rubes on KFAN quiet?

[mikelink45]

On 10/19/2022 at 7:56 AM, jmlease1 said:

That's a team failure not an individual one. We landed in 3rd and finished below .500 because we had the second-most games lost to injuries in baseball and fielded a lineup that had too many AAA players who aren't MLB caliber or were washed up veterans in the 2nd half. But that argument is one that applies to any single player in baseball; if the team is bad, one player doesn't make much difference. Taking Correa off the team probably doesn't land us in 4th, but it does mean we're not as competitive as we were for as long as we were.

But I don't think you're arguing against the Twins having good players or signing talented ones, it just seems like you don't think Correa is really a star player and worth a big salary, and that opinion seems based on feel, not stats & production.

He is a star - that is not my argument but his salary and more years of commitment are not things I support.  It is not a stat issue, it is the fact that we are better to develop players who will get better the next five years instead of committing to someone who might decline over those years. 

[D.C Twins]

On 10/18/2022 at 11:26 AM, PDX Twin said:

IMHO: Not worth it. My (selective) memories of Correa with the Twins are from the July/August period when we were desperately clinging to the division lead, and Correa made weak outs in close games with runners in scoring position time after time after time. His statistics ended up pretty good for the year, but he was not Kirby, who always seemed to come through in his most important at-bat.

And as for his clubhouse presence, the Twins clubhouse in September was about as ugly as any I remember. And this was not a bunch of jaded veterans putting in their time. It was a collection of young, impressionable rookies desperate to make a good impression. Nelson Cruz made everyone else on the team better; if Correa did, I can't see the evidence from where I sit.

I'd be happy to get him for $20m/yr, but someone is going to pay him more than that, so I'll be satisfied with the Twins' standard "we tried" effort.

This. Correa was absent on offence during extended stretches when the season was on the line. His final numbers were padded by a scorching hot September when AAA pitchers were up and playing and many teams were playing out the season. He is very talented but I did not see a transcendent player worth 30-40 mil/yr. 

And yes we have payroll THIS year but we will need to sign pitchers after we lose a bunch to FA next year! Signing Correa this year to a bloated contract will absolutely impact our pitching in the future.

Luckily, the Twins FO will figure out the exact dollar amount that will look as high as possible to the public but that he will never take, so it will look like they 'tried super hard to get him!" 

[jorgenswest]

19 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

His final numbers were padded by a scorching hot September when AAA pitchers were up

Is this still true with the new September roster rules? Teams were able to add at most one pitcher.

He also hit 361/425/667 in the first 18 games in September. Those games were critical at the time as they faced the Guardians(8), Yankees(4) and White Sox(3). The other 3 games were against the Royals and they were not starting AAA call ups in those games.

I don’t think the narrative that dismisses his September performance is supported by the box scores.

[mikelink45]

On 10/19/2022 at 10:00 AM, chpettit19 said:

If you don't believe that 9 or 10 of Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Ober, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, Moran, Thielbar, Varland, Winder, and SWR can get outs in the playoffs you should be suggesting the Twins blow it up and start over. If you don't think 9 or 10 of Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Urshela, Buxton, Celestino, Gordon, Kepler, Kirillloff, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and Lee are good enough for regular playoff playing time you should be suggesting the Twins blow it up. That's 29 players. How many do you think are good enough to make a postseason roster?

I believe Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Alcala, and Moran would be worthy of postseason roster spots with Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda, Duran, Jax, and Lopez being amongst the 10 guys I'd want on my postseason staff getting almost all of the innings. To me that means they need 3 more big time arms for a postseason run. 1 being a starter in front of Gray, Ryan, and Mahle (I've already said multiple times Rodon would be my choice, even though he has some injury concern). The other 2 would be pen arms that slot in above Jax, Lopez, and Maeda (he'd be a pen arm for me in October), but below Duran. At least 1 of them would have to be a lefty. I haven't looked at the FA reliever lists so don't know who I'd look at there. Do you feel like the Twins have more or less than 7 postseason level pitchers on the current roster?

I believe Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Urshela, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach are postseason roster worthy. I think Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Miranda, Polanco, Buxton, and Kirilloff are good enough to start in playoff games. That's 7 position players. To me there's an OF spot (maybe Larnach could claim it, but I'm not 100% sold on him yet) and SS open (I'd put Lewis at 3B where I think he'd be a gold glover). Do you feel the Twins have more or less than 7 postseason level position players on the current roster?

That's really the point here. How many holes do you see the Twins as having to fill? Because I feel they have so few, and that there's a handful of internal options who may actually step up and claim them, I think they can afford to finally bring in a superstar on a big deal. I think their current major and minor league rosters moving forward can account for almost all of the needs. If you disagree then it's time to blow it up cuz they can't build an entire roster through free agency and trades. If you agree with my general assessment of the current Twins organization then why wouldn't you want them to bring in both Correa and Rodon, plus a couple relievers? They can afford it. It's not a budget issue. What reason do they have to not bring in both if they don't have a ton of holes to fill?

I agree that we have young players to fill the gaps and we need to get them in the majors along with those who have already come but I don't believe that we are more than a 500 team which means that we need to start looking at places where we have excess strength and people like polanco if they have value need to be traded for what we need.

The team we currently have proved to be at 481 and thus any argument the good shape has to look at the reality of our team versus those we are competing with.

I do believe we need another starting pitcher, not because we don't have a lot of good arms, but we don't have the stopper. Jack Morris was the difference Maker for us in 1991 and we need that kind of arm on our staff.

[mikelink45]

On 10/19/2022 at 10:01 AM, DJL44 said:

If any organization in baseball could figure out which pitchers were going to get injured and which ones would stay healthy they would be a perennial contender.

I have seen a lot of people saying the Twins should sign "pitching" instead of Correa. The elite arms available this offseason are deGrom and Verlander. Next tier down is Rodon, Kershaw and Bassitt. Only Bassitt looks like a pitcher who will avoid the IL. Then you have Severino and Syndergaard who are both not as good after TJ surgery.

After looking at that group I'd much rather give a long-term contract to Correa. In fact, out of all the available free agents the only players I'd go 7-8 seasons on a contract are Judge, Correa and Trea Turner.

My preference is a trade for a pitcher using the excess talent that we are supposed to have at second base.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree that we have young players to fill the gaps and we need to get them in the majors along with those who have already come but I don't believe that we are more than a 500 team which means that we need to start looking at places where we have excess strength and people like polanco if they have value need to be traded for what we need.

The team we currently have proved to be at 481 and thus any argument the good shape has to look at the reality of our team versus those we are competing with.

I do believe we need another starting pitcher, not because we don't have a lot of good arms, but we don't have the stopper. Jack Morris was the difference Maker for us in 1991 and we need that kind of arm on our staff.

It's all well and good to trade Polanco or whoever you want to fill in the holes. But the question is how many holes do you think they have? To me it's SS, a #1 SP, lefty reliever, closer/backend shutdown RP, and a partner at C for Jeffers. That's 5 players. My point is that you can sign Correa, Turner, or Swanson and still fill those other 4 spots, including a #1 starting pitcher. They have 60+ million they should be able to spend this offseason.

Plus, if they're doing what you want and trading from a deeper position it's even easier to fill the other spots. Trade Kepler and clear his money and you have even more to spend. Signing Rodon and Correa is affordable and is even smarter if you're trading away someone like Polanco to fill the LHRP, backend RP, or C roles. My point is that signing Correa, or Swanson for less, or Turner for probably about the same isn't stopping the Twins from doing the other things they need to do so why would they not sign a superstar when they can actually afford to? Especially with all the money they have coming off their books in the next couple years.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

This. Correa was absent on offence during extended stretches when the season was on the line. His final numbers were padded by a scorching hot September when AAA pitchers were up and playing and many teams were playing out the season. He is very talented but I did not see a transcendent player worth 30-40 mil/yr. 

And yes we have payroll THIS year but we will need to sign pitchers after we lose a bunch to FA next year! Signing Correa this year to a bloated contract will absolutely impact our pitching in the future.

Luckily, the Twins FO will figure out the exact dollar amount that will look as high as possible to the public but that he will never take, so it will look like they 'tried super hard to get him!" 

The Twins plan for pitching is clearly to develop it in house. Signing Correa doesn't change the plan on pitching at all. They've needed pitching the last 2 offseasons and didn't sign it then so why would we think they'd go out and sign it moving forward?

I'd actually argue signing Correa and Rodon this offseason and then an Aaron Nola type next year with the money from Mahle, Gray, Maeda, and Kepler gone would be ideal. 2 studs to front the rotation with Ryan, Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, et al filling in the other 3 slots. Superstar at SS and superstar in CF for half the season would be the best situation this team has ever been in. Their refusal to sign any long-term deals before now, and Buxton being so cheap, sets them up perfectly to splurge on Correa and 2 stud arms over the next couple seasons.

[dex8425]

On 10/18/2022 at 7:46 AM, Major League Ready said:

What the article does not cover is the examples of teams in similar markets that have been successful signing a mega contract with a similar player.  The reality is that it never happens.  In other words, none of the GMs of teams with similar revenue have believed signing such a player was in the best interest of the team.  Are they all wrong?

We would be a better team next year with him but we be a better team in 24 and for several years thereafter with Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M invested in pitching?

Well the Padres (a mid-market team, certainly not a big market team) signed Tatis and Machado to huge long-term deals. Machado's deal has turned out pretty well so far. And look, the Padres are in the NLCS. 

[dex8425]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My preference is a trade for a pitcher using the excess talent that we are supposed to have at second base.

The problem with that route is two-fold as I see it.

1. There aren't many/any pitchers available at the caliber of Rodon, Verlander, DeGrom, etc on the trade market. If the Brewers sell, maybe Woodruff? 

2. The necessity of giving up multiple top prospects who will soon be cheap, cost-controlled contributors at the MLB level in order to trade for even a #2-3 pitcher. Just think about what the Twins would have to give up to get, say Sandy Alcantara. Would you give up Lewis, Brooks Lee, Miranda, Larnach, Bailey Ober and Austin Martin/Jorge Polanco for Alcantara? I don't even think the Marlins would do that. 

I'd rather sign Correa and Rodon. They just cost money. If Lewis and Lee turn out to be stars, great. You can trade them to fill other needs if you can't find them MLB at bats. 

[mikelink45]

5 hours ago, dex8425 said:

The problem with that route is two-fold as I see it.

1. There aren't many/any pitchers available at the caliber of Rodon, Verlander, DeGrom, etc on the trade market. If the Brewers sell, maybe Woodruff? 

2. The necessity of giving up multiple top prospects who will soon be cheap, cost-controlled contributors at the MLB level in order to trade for even a #2-3 pitcher. Just think about what the Twins would have to give up to get, say Sandy Alcantara. Would you give up Lewis, Brooks Lee, Miranda, Larnach, Bailey Ober and Austin Martin/Jorge Polanco for Alcantara? I don't even think the Marlins would do that. 

I'd rather sign Correa and Rodon. They just cost money. If Lewis and Lee turn out to be stars, great. You can trade them to fill other needs if you can't find them MLB at bats. 

I love all the spend money responses - actually I just love all those who post to argue with me - but spending ridiculous money will never be something I support even if it is monopoly money - unless there is a get out of jail free card too.

[USAFChief]

14 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

  It is not a stat issue, it is the fact that we are better to develop players who will get better the next five years instead of committing to someone who might decline over those years. 

In what way would signing Correa prevent the Twins from developing those same players?

[Greg Nelson]

On 10/18/2022 at 7:46 AM, Major League Ready said:

What the article does not cover is the examples of teams in similar markets that have been successful signing a mega contract with a similar player.  The reality is that it never happens.  In other words, none of the GMs of teams with similar revenue have believed signing such a player was in the best interest of the team.  Are they all wrong?

We would be a better team next year with him but we be a better team in 24 and for several years thereafter with Lewis or Lee at SS and $35M invested in pitching?

What team is going to give home a contract after watching the how Seager, Siemens, Limdor, Javiar Bias and Tatis Jr. have not lived up at all to there contracts.  Plus, how many teams this off season are in the market for a shortstop? Lastly, Carlos's replacement posted nearly the exact numbers as he did for only 375k this year.  Every team has good SS in their pipeline.  Houston let him walk and their probably going to win another WS without him. Carlos fired his agent and got lucky with deal he got in MN. Team owners and GMs have all witnessed what happened last year when all that money got spent on top shelf SS.  The Rangers canned their GM for crippling their team with the Seager and Simien deals.  Seattle did exactly what Houston did and they were much better for it.   Any GM that gets the. Nod to meet Carlos demands is putting their career on the line.

Bluntly, Carlos was extremely greedy and he missed out on the gold rush of over paying SS.  With Turner, Dansby and Bogart's on the market, Carlos and his agent need to be realistic.  He demanded to much last year and he won't get a deal like the FA SS of 22 did. GMs like to keep their jobs.. Carlos will get a 7 year deal with team options to buy him out in the final 3 years of the deal and it will be loaded with incentives.

If he waits to long again as he did last year with his outrageous demands of being the highest professional athlete in sports he won't have his arrogance to blame or his agent.  He can blame his own ego and straight up stupidity to accept reality. 

[dxpavelka]

5 years $190 million.